Downing Street has published the data behind its decisions over England's new tier system as it tries to win support from its own MPs.
No 10's report said it sought to "balance the many complex impacts" of restrictions and to keep them in place "for as short a time as possible".
But it said allowing the virus to spread exponentially "would lead to impacts... that would be considered intolerable for society".
MPs will vote on the plans on Tuesday.
The government announced its tougher three tiers to tackle the virus last week, with Boris Johnson telling reporters on Monday: "We can't afford to take our foot off the throat of the beast... to let it out of control again."
But a number of Tory backbenchers - many of which are part of the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) of MPs - have threatened to vote against the motion when it comes to the Commons.
England's current lockdown will end in the early hours of Wednesday 2 December and will see the country placed into one of three tiers: medium (one), high (two) and very high (three).
However, the majority of the country, over 55 million, will be under the strictest two sets of measures.
The announcement led to criticism from some Tory MPs, who were concerned about the impact in their constituencies.
'Little time'
Mr Johnson wrote to his party twice over the weekend to appeal for their backing and to grant some of the CRG's demands.
They included the publication of the data on the health, social and economic impact of the tiers, and the promise MPs could vote again on the measures in January - with the possibility the tier system could end on 3 February.
But the government report - published on Monday - said it was "not possible to forecast the precise economic impact of a specific change to a specific restriction with confidence".
The document is largely made up of information already available.
It said the challenge of balancing health and societal impacts was not straightforward, but the government would continue to pursue the best overall outcomes.
The CRG's chairman, Mark Harper, said his group would respond to the publication on Tuesday after its own analysis, but criticised having "been given so little time to digest information".
Labour is expected to support the PM, but is yet to confirm its stance, while the Liberal Democrats have said they will not back the plan - although it is not clear whether they will vote against or abstain.
However, the SNP will abstain in the vote, as it only covers restrictions in England.
If Labour decides to get behind the new tier system, the government should easily win the vote - even if there is a sizeable revolt among Conservative MPs.
Speaking shortly before the data was published, Mr Johnson said he "understood people's frustration" with the stricter tiers.
He said: "The tiering system is tough, but it is designed to be tough to keep [the virus] under control."
"What we can't do is forsake and abandon all the gains we have made now just when we are starting to see real progress in the science."
In the report, the government pointed to data from the Office for National Statistics, showing a rapid increase in people testing positive for the virus between September and November - from 59,800 a week to 633,000 a week.
It said the new "strengthened" tier system was "designed to keep R [the infection rate] below one so that prevalence continues to fall, the significant impacts of the virus are reduced, and so that, ultimately, fewer restrictions are required."
The document also pointed to the economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility - which were published alongside Chancellor Rishi Sunak's spending review last week - predicting the value of the economy will fall by 11.3% by the end of the financial year.
But, while the report conceded there would be "major impacts" on the economy from the restrictions, it added: "Any attempt to estimate the specific economic impacts of precise changes to individual restrictions for a defined period of time would be subject to such wide uncertainty as to not be meaningful for precise policy making".
'Right support'
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said there was a "need for restrictions" and that his party "has to act in the national interest".
But, speaking at a virtual town hall with Lancashire residents, Sir Keir he was concerned the government "doesn't have the support package right".
Sir Keir and other members of the shadow cabinet are due to meet England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty and the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance later, as they decide whether to vote with the government.
However, one Labour MP, Richard Burgon, has already said he will vote against the tier system, arguing that it will fail to lower the infection rate and make another lockdown more likely.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey described the system as "chaotic" and said his party would not back the measures until the prime minister addressed their concerns - such as working with local authorities and supporting pubs.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiL2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL3VrLXBvbGl0aWNzLTU1MTM0NzY20gEzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmJjLmNvLnVrL25ld3MvYW1wL3VrLXBvbGl0aWNzLTU1MTM0NzY2?oc=5
2020-11-30 17:13:00Z
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