Senin, 30 November 2020

Coronavirus UK: Keir Starmer orders Labour to ABSTAIN in Commons vote on tiers system - Daily Mail

Boris Johnson's Covid tiers plans hang by a thread as Keir Starmer orders Labour to ABSTAIN in Commons vote leaving PM at the mercy of up to 100 rebellious Tory backbenchers

  • Sir Keir Starmer has broken from Boris Johnson by ordering Labour to abstain in today's Commons vote
  • It leaves Boris Johnson exposed to potentially 100 Tories who will defy the whip and oppose the restrictions
  • No10's 48-page dossier on the tiers' social and economic hit failed to quell the Conservative uprising 
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Sir Keir Starmer has decided to break from Boris Johnson' in today's vote on new coronavirus restrictions – in a move that could further damage the PM's authority and leave him at the mercy of his backbench.

No10 is expected to win today's Commons vote on the three-tier lockdown curbs due to come into force tomorrow when the blanket shutdown ends – but its majority will be slashed by Labour's abstention. 

Sir Keir, who has backed government measures throughout the pandemic, said it would not be in the national interest to vote the restrictions down when coronavirus still posed a 'serious risk' to the public.  

But his party's decision not to actively support the Government has left Mr Johnson exposed to his own MPs, with little sign last night that No10's dossier on the social and economic consequences of the tier system had quelled a rebellion which could see up to 100 Conservatives vote against the measures. 

Scores of Tories have furiously branded Downing Street's 48-page document a whitewash and a 'cut and paste' job after it insisted that it could not measure how the three-tier system will effect the economies of local areas.   

The final dossier was based on information in the public domain, with the section on the economic impact drawn from an analysis of the impact of the pandemic published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week.

Senior Tories blasted the 'rushed' document, which contained typographical errors – with one claiming that the PM had chosen not to publish an economic forecast 'because it would have come up with the wrong answer'. 

Mel Stride, Tory chairman of the Commons Treasury committee, said: 'It's frustrating that there is little here that sets out how the different tiers might impact on the specific sectors and regions across the country. Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will struggle to find it in this document.' 

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, last night confirmed he would vote against the Government's plans. Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith accused ministers of a 'cut and paste job', which suggested no economic analysis had been done before the allocation of tiers was made.     

At a No 10 news conference yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he hoped some areas could be moved into lower tiers when the restrictions come up for their first fortnightly review on December 16. But government scientists have made clear they see little scope for any widespread easing before Christmas.

It could mean most areas of England will go into the new year in one of the toughest two tiers with a ban on households mixing indoors and strict controls on the hospitality sector. Only the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have been designated for the lightest Tier 1 restrictions.

In other coronavirus news:  

  • Britain recorded just 12,330 coronavirus infections in the lowest Monday toll since September;
  • Welsh pubs will be forced to close at 6pm and banned from selling alcohol drinks from Friday as the country is plunged into a new lockdown just weeks after the last one ended;
  • Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions; 
  • The Prime Minister announced a £20million boost for medicine manufacturing in the UK in a bid to strengthen the country's response to future pandemics; 
  • Professor Peter Openshaw, of Imperial College, a member of an official virus advisory group, said a Covid vaccine could be available 'as early as next week';
  • Moderna said it would today submit its Covid vaccine for emergency approval in the US and Europe, after the final analysis of its last-stage trial showed it was 94.1 per cent effective;
  • Under new guidelines, Santa's grottos can open but with Father Christmas in a mask and children banned from sitting on his knee.
Sir Keir Starmer has decided to break from Boris Johnson in a vote today on new Covid tier restrictions for the first time, in a split that could damage the PM and leave him at the mercy of Tory rebels

Sir Keir Starmer has decided to break from Boris Johnson in a vote today on new Covid tier restrictions for the first time, in a split that could damage the PM and leave him at the mercy of Tory rebels

No10 expects to win today's Commons vote on the three-tier lockdown curbs, which are due to come into force on Wednesday when the blanket shutdown ends - but its majority will be slashed by Labour's abstention

No10 expects to win today's Commons vote on the three-tier lockdown curbs, which are due to come into force on Wednesday when the blanket shutdown ends - but its majority will be slashed by Labour's abstention 

Whips are trying to talk round 100 Conservatives on the verge of joining the mutiny, with fury that just 1 per cent of England is being been in the lowest level of restrictions, even though many areas in Tier 3 have seen few or no infections

Whips are trying to talk round 100 Conservatives on the verge of joining the mutiny, with fury that just 1 per cent of England is being been in the lowest level of restrictions, even though many areas in Tier 3 have seen few or no infections

Britain today recorded just 12,330 Covid-19 infections in the lowest Monday toll since September, as Boris Johnson faces a growing rebellion over No10 's draconian new tier system amid mounting evidence that the second wave is retreating

Britain today recorded just 12,330 Covid-19 infections in the lowest Monday toll since September, as Boris Johnson faces a growing rebellion over No10 's draconian new tier system amid mounting evidence that the second wave is retreating

Explaining his decision to order Labour to abstain in today's Commons vote, Sir Keir said:  'Coronavirus remains a serious threat to the public's health and that's why Labour accept the need for continued restrictions. We will always act in the national interest, so we will not vote against these restrictions in Parliament tomorrow.

'However, I remain deeply concerned that Boris Johnson's Government has failed to use this latest lockdown to put a credible health and economic plan in place.

Wales BANS pubs from selling alcoholic drinks and introduces 6pm CURFEW as it heads for ANOTHER lockdown less than four weeks after its 'firebreak' with infection rate up 31 per cent - as police fine English shoppers sneaking across the border 

Welsh pubs will be forced to close at 6pm and banned from selling alcohol drinks from Friday as the country is plunged into a new lockdown just weeks after the last one ended.

First Minister Mark Drakeford outlined a raft of measures for the hospitality sector this afternoon following a sharp uptick in coronavirus infections, especially among the under-25s.

Pubs, bars and restaurants will only be allowed to remain open until 6pm from Friday, and operate as takeaways afterwards. And they will not be allowed to serve alcoholic drinks under a scheme like that in place in Scotland for weeks.

Under the new programme, cinemas, bowling alleys and other indoor entertainment venues will also  close, but non-essential retail, hairdressers, gyms and leisure centres can stay open.

The move follows the previous 'firebreak' lockdown between October 23 and November 9. When that ended, people were allowed to meet indoors in groups of up to four people in places like pubs and restaurants, with no alcohol sales before 6pm and a 10.20pm curfew. 

Up to 15 people were also allowed to take part in 'an organised indoors activity' like an exercise class, and non-essential retain reopened.

But coronavirus cases have risen from 160 per 100,000 to 210 per 100,000 in the past 10 days, an increase of 31 per cent.

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'We still don't have a functioning testing system, public health messaging is confused, and businesses across the country are crying out for more effective economic support to get them through the winter months.

'It is short-term Government incompetence that is causing long-term damage to the British economy. It is imperative that the Government gets control of the virus so that our NHS can be protected and our economy recovers faster.'

In response, the Government accused Sir Keir of 'playing politics' in the midst of the pandemic. 'This pandemic is one of the biggest challenges facing the country in decades and Labour have decided to abstain on it,' a No10 spokesman said.

'While Keir Starmer claims he offers new leadership, it's clear to all that he actually offers no leadership at all.

'Keir Starmer is playing politics in the middle of a global pandemic instead of working with the Government to find a way through this difficult time for the British people.'  

Whips are trying to talk round 100 Conservatives on the verge of joining the mutiny, with fury that just 1 per cent of England is being put in the lowest level of restrictions from Wednesday, with many areas in Tier 3 even though they have seen few or no infections. Concessions such as a February renewal date and more money for pubs and restaurants have already been offered.

But calls for a rethink have been reinforced by more evidence that the UK's outbreak is shrinking fast, with just 12,330 Covid-19 infections recorded in the lowest Monday toll since September. 

On a visit to pharmaceutical firm Wockhardt at their facility in North Wales, Mr Johnson said England's lockdown had got the disease under control with the R number – a measure of how quickly the virus is spreading – below 1.

He said: 'We can't afford to take our foot off the throat of the beast, to take our foot off the gas, we can't afford to let it out of control again.

'The tiering system is tough, but it's designed to be tough and to keep it under control. I know that lots of people think that they are in the wrong tier and I understand people's frustration.

'I particularly understand the frustration of the hospitality sector that has borne so much and been through so much in the last few months, and we will do everything we can, as we have been doing, to protect and to encourage that sector throughout the weeks and months ahead.' 

But Mel Stride, the Tory chairman of the Treasury Committee, criticised the documents tonight.

'On a number of occasions, I've requested from the Chancellor and Treasury officials that they publish an analysis of the economic impacts of the three tiers,' he said.

'With little over 24 hours until MPs vote on the new tiered system, this rehashed document offers very little further in economic terms other than that which the OBR published last week. It's frustrating that there is little here that sets out how the different tiers might impact on the specific sectors and regions across the country.

Sturgeon says she won't have 'indoor Christmas' with family this year  

Nicola Sturgeon has revealed she will not be celebrating Christmas indoors with family this year.

Despite signing off on a UK-wide loosening for the festive season, the Scottish First Minister said she did not want to put her family 'at risk'. 

'Normally, Christmas, my husband and I would have both our families here in our own home. We will not be doing that this year,' she said.

'I've not seen my parents since July and I would dearly love to see them today and at Christmas, but I don't want to put them at risk when a vaccine is so close.

'We might go and have a family walk somewhere, but the idea ... of an indoors Christmas dinner is something we will not do this year.' 

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'Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will struggle to find it in this document.' 

Matt Hancock told a Downing Street briefing that he hoped MPs from 'all parties' will back the proposals. The Health Secretary also said it is possible that some parts of the country could be downgraded to a lower tier at the first review of the measures on December 16. 

He said: 'Of course you've got to take into account that Christmas is coming up, but, nevertheless, with the case rates coming down as they are – coming down by almost third in the last week – then we will be absolutely looking at each area and seeing what is the right tier for that area.'      

It comes as MailOnline analysis of official data showed only four NHS trusts in England are busier now than they were this time last year – despite warnings the health service would be crippled by coronavirus without the revamped three-tier lockdown system. 

Michael Gove sparked fury over the weekend when he claimed that every hospital in England would be 'physically overwhelmed' by Covid-19 without the Government's new restrictions, as he tried to persuade MPs and the public to support the brutal curbs. 

But NHS England figures paint an entirely different picture, with thousands more hospital beds spare this year than last winter. 

On average, 77,942 out of 88,903 (87.7 per cent) available beds were occupied across the country in the week ending November 22, which is the most recent snapshot. This figure does not take into account make-shift capacity at mothballed Nightingales, or the thousands of beds commandeered from the private sector.

For comparison, occupancy stood at 94.9 per cent, on average, during the seven-day spell that ended December 8 in 2019 – which is the most comparable data available for last winter – when around 91,733 out of all 96,675 available beds were full. 

On average, 77,942 out of 88,903 (87.7 per cent) available beds were occupied across the country in the week ending November 22, which is the most recent snapshot. For comparison, occupancy stood at 94.9 per cent, on average, during the seven-day spell that ended December 8 in 2019 — which is the most comparable data available for last winter — when around 91,733 out of all 96,675 available beds were full

On average, 77,942 out of 88,903 (87.7 per cent) available beds were occupied across the country in the week ending November 22, which is the most recent snapshot. For comparison, occupancy stood at 94.9 per cent, on average, during the seven-day spell that ended December 8 in 2019 — which is the most comparable data available for last winter — when around 91,733 out of all 96,675 available beds were full

Just four trusts — Cambridge University Hospitals Foundation Trust (FT), University College London Hospitals FT, Calderdale and Huddersfield FT, and Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh FT — are busier now than they were a year ago

Of the trusts that are the busiest this year, only Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh is seeing more patients in total than last winter

It's true that nearly a third of English hospitals are seeing more Covid patients now than at the peak of the crisis in April. But on the whole, there are still 4,000 fewer people with the disease in English hospitals compared to mid-April

It's true that nearly a third of English hospitals are seeing more Covid patients now than at the peak of the crisis in April. But on the whole, there are still 4,000 fewer people with the disease in English hospitals compared to mid-April

Prime Minister gestures as he speaks during virtual press conference at Downing Street

Prime Minister gestures as he speaks during virtual press conference at Downing Street

Tory fury at lack of data 

The lack of information on the effect of lockdowns on the economy has left Tory Party members 'frustrated'.

More than three-quarters polled strongly disagreed that the Government has provided sufficient health and economic information to enable people to 'make a balanced assessment of the risks'.

Three in five strongly agreed that ministers should have focused more on support for small businesses.

The poll of 2,800 members was commissioned by grassroots group Conservative Voice.

One respondent said: 'We want a Conservative government, not all the woke nonsense that keeps being pumped out.

'Boris needs to listen to more scientific opinions.'

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Just four trusts – Cambridge University Hospitals Foundation Trust (FT), University College London Hospitals FT, Calderdale and Huddersfield FT, and Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh FT – are busier now than they were a year ago. 

In Cambridge, 769 of 823 beds were full (93.4 per cent) on average in the week ending November 22, compared to 883 out of 956 (92.5 per cent) last winter. 

Calderdale and Huddersfield was at 93.3 per cent capacity last week, with 499 out of 535 beds filled, slightly higher than the 92 per cent last December, when 596 of 648 beds were in use.

Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust is almost at full capacity, with 98.7 per cent of its 335 beds occupied. But that figure is still only marginally higher than the 96 per cent from last year. 

While University College London was 89.2 per cent full last December compared to 93 per cent last week. 

Dr Karol Sikora, a consultant oncologist and professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham, said Downing Street was running a 'brainwashing PR campaign' with 'data that doesn't stack up'. 

He told MailOnline: 'We've gone back to how it started in March, with [the Government] claiming we need the measures to protect the NHS. The data you've shown me proves that it doesn't need protecting. It's dealing with Covid very well indeed. 

'What the data shows is that hospitals are not working at full capacity and they've still got some spare beds for Covid if necessary. The public is being misled, the data doesn't stack up. Fear and scaremongering is being used to keep people out of hospital.'     

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2020-12-01 00:15:00Z
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Secret dossier on coronavirus damage | News - The Times

The government has drawn up a secret dossier detailing the impact of coronavirus on the economy, with a dozen sectors rated “red” and facing significant job cuts and revenue losses, The Times has been told.

The Covid-19 sectoral impacts dashboard, which is prepared by officials from across Whitehall and frequently updated, gives “granular” detail on the effect of coronavirus on nearly 40 areas of the economy.

Among the sectors with a red rating are aerospace, the automotive industry, retail, hospitality and tourism, arts and heritage, maritime, including ferries and cruises, and sport.

Details of the document emerged as up to 70 Tory MPs prepared to rebel today over the government’s new tiering system, which is due to come into force tomorrow.

Ministers published an

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2020-12-01 00:01:00Z
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COVID-19: Labour set to abstain in key COVID-19 lockdown vote as Tory rebels unconvinced by govt's tiers analysis - Sky News

Labour MPs will abstain from a key lockdown vote as Tory rebels say they are unconvinced by a "rehashed" tiers analysis.

A commons is vote is set to be held on Tuesday to approve the new system of tiers, which will leave just 1% of the country with the lowest level of restrictions.

Sir Keir Starmer said: "It's very important as the opposition that we act in the national interest," he said.

"We do have serious misgivings about the government scheme, the proposals, but we will not be voting them down tomorrow, we will not be voting against them."

In response, Number 10 accused the Labour leader of "playing politics in the middle of a global pandemic instead of working with the government to find a way through this difficult time for the British people".

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PM faces lockdown showdown with Tory MPs

The news came as ministers released an impact assessment of the tiered system of COVID-19 restrictions ahead of the vote.

Boris Johnson is battling to avoid a damaging Conservative revolt over the measures, with many of his MPs unhappy with the new system that is set to come into effect in England when the second lockdown ends on Wednesday.

More from Covid-19

According to a tally by Sky News, a total of 65 Tories have voiced their unhappiness over the tiers, or have said they are unlikely to support the measures.

In its impact assessment, the government says that while the new restrictions will have a "significant" impact on the economy, allowing COVID-19 to run unchecked would be "much worse" for public health.

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'We've got this virus back under control'

The document states that failing to keep stringent measures in place would see the NHS overwhelmed and lead to an "intolerable" loss of life.

But in a withering response, a senior Tory MP has claimed the impact assessment contains little new information.

"With little over 24 hours until MPs vote on the new tiered system, this rehashed document offers very little further in economic terms other than that which the OBR published last week," Treasury Select Committee chair Mel Stride said.

"It's frustrating that there is little here that sets out how the different tiers might impact on the specific sectors and regions across the country.

"Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will struggle to find it in this document."

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Mark Harper, chair of the COVID Recovery Group of Conservative MPs who are sceptical of further restrictions, said the analysis "seems to be collapsing under the glare of scrutiny" and "the wheels are coming off the government's arguments".

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, has said he is almost certain to vote against the government.

Speaking at an online event organised by the Institute for Economic Affairs, he said: "My concerns about the impact on civil liberties and fundamental human rights are there regardless.

"The fact is that my own constituency [Altrincham and Sale West] has been put inside the wrong tier without good justification - unless that were to change, it makes it inevitable that I would vote against."

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COVID hotspots targeted with mass testing

Tory opposition to the tiers is being driven by the fact that 99% of England's population will fall under the two toughest tiers from Wednesday.

About 32 million people - covering 57.3% of England - will fall into Tier 2. But 23.3 million people - 41.5% of the population - are going to be placed in Tier 3.

Large parts of the Midlands, the North East and the North West will be subject to the severest measures.

Hospitality venues will be closed in the run-up to Christmas unless they can provide takeaway or delivery services, and households are forbidden from mixing indoors.

Many MPs have questioned the basis for the tier decisions and raised fears about the economic impact.

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COVID-19: Restrictions likely until Easter

Mr Johnson has acknowledged that "lots of people think that they are in the wrong tier" but is insistent that the measures are needed to slow the spread of coronavirus.

It would be wrong to "take our foot off the throat of the beast" now, the prime minister said.

The health secretary has also appealed to Tory MPs to support the tiered system, claiming it is the "best way" to avoid a third national lockdown.

"I would urge all MPs right across the House to vote for the tiered system," Matt Hancock told a Downing Street news conference.

Mr Hancock said England's lockdown means "we've got this virus back under control" - but warned continued vigilance is needed.

Analysis: Tiers assessment may not satisfy sceptical MPs
By Tom Rayner, political correspondent

Conservative opponents of the new regional tier restrictions have been very specific about what they wanted to see from the government's impact assessment of the new tier system.

Mark Harper, the former chief whip and chair of the COVID Recovery Group, said MPs needed to know the social and economic impact of "every proposed restriction" within each tier before they cast their votes in the Commons on Tuesday.

But the document published by the government does not do that.

Instead it says "it is not possible to forecast the precise economic impact of a specific change to a specific restriction with confidence".

There is acknowledgement that the latest forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility was based on the looser tier system in place before the England-wide lockdown, and therefore the new tougher version of the regional tier system could see greater short-term economic losses "to the extent that average restrictions in the UK are stricter".

But an assessment of the economic impact of only being able to go to a pub with your own household in Tier 2, for example, is not included.

The broad justification for the tier system set out in the document is the same made by ministers in recent days - that while there will be economic and social costs, failing to act and risking the NHS being overwhelmed would be "intolerable for our society".

But for Conservative backbenchers considering voting against the government, the repetition of this argument may not be sufficient to change their minds.

They know the argument but they want to see solid evidence to justify it, and it's not clear this document will be perceived to have provided that.

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2020-11-30 23:03:45Z
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Covid: Alcohol ban for Welsh pubs and restaurants from Friday - BBC News

Welsh pubs, restaurants and cafes will be banned from serving alcohol from Friday and will be unable to open to customers beyond 18:00 GMT.

First Minister Mark Drakeford announced the new rules to tackle a rise in coronavirus cases.

Business groups said the move would devastate Wales' hospitality industry, with closures "guaranteed".

Indoor entertainment and visitor attractions, including cinemas, museums and galleries, will also have to shut.

Businesses can offer a takeaway service after 18:00, and if they have an off-licence can sell takeaway alcohol up until 22:00.

The Conservative leader in the Senedd, Paul Davies, said the national approach from the Welsh Government was unfair on areas with low Covid rates.

Plaid Cymru said hospitality was "paying the price" for a lack of stricter measures after the firebreak lockdown ended on 9 November.

Mr Drakeford said without changes there could be between 1,000 and 1,700 preventable deaths over the winter.

  • How many Covid deaths have there been in Wales?
  • Figuring out the stats on coronavirus in Wales
  • What are you allowed to do?

The first minister said firms hit by the restrictions would be offered £340m in support which he claimed was "the most generous package of financial assistance anywhere in the UK".

Mr Drakeford told a press conference: "I know these new restrictions will be difficult, coming as they do at the one of the busiest times of the year for the sector.

"Unfortunately, we continue to face a virus which is moving incredibly quickly across Wales and a virus that will exploit every opportunity when we spend time with one another."

The case rate has risen from 187 per 100,000 people over seven days on Friday, to 210 cases per 100,000 people, Mr Drakeford added.

Infographic

The restrictions come into effect at 18:00 on Friday, and are similar to the restrictions on hospitality within level three areas in Scotland.

However the rule allowing four people from four different households to meet indoors in pubs and restaurants will stay in place.

The decision will be reviewed on 17 December.

Bingo halls, bowling alleys, soft play centres, casinos, skating rinks and amusement arcades will also have to close.

Meanwhile current restrictions on travel into England, implemented while a lockdown is in place over the border, are being reviewed.

The first minister said he would make a further announcement later this week.

'Devastating blow'

The Grange pub

The chief executive of one of Wales' largest breweries says she wants the Welsh Government to prove that Covid is being spread in pubs and restaurants.

"Where is the scientific evidence that you are more at risk in a pub than you are at home or in a supermarket?" said Connie Parry of Tomos Watkin brewery in Swansea.

Ian Price, director of business lobby group CBI Wales, warned closures and job losses were "all but guaranteed" in pubs and restaurants.

"The first minister's announcement is devastating for a Welsh hospitality sector that's already reeling from a damaging cycle of restrictions," he said.

Dai Dearden, general manager of The Grange pub in Cardiff, said the announcement was a "hammer-blow".

"I think it will close us for the time being at one of the busiest times of the year", he said, adding it would have "a massive effect on the health and well-being, and mental state, of my staff and our customers".

Tom Simmons, the chef and co-owner of Thomas in Pontcanna, Cardiff, said: "The spend in our restaurant is around 70% on food and drink - and we will lose customers who know they can't have a drink with their meal. Many won't come back because of that."

"I don't see any reason or logic behind this. All it will do is lead to people gathering at home and drinking instead - it would be structured with restaurants and pubs, not in people's homes."

Joanne Cooney runs the Irish Bar in Llandudno in Conwy county, which currently has the lowest coronavirus case rate out of Wales' 22 counties.

She said: "The numbers are high in big towns and we're being penalised for them. Our numbers are low. We should've been able to open and trade."

"People are not going to come in. You've just turned us into a coffee shop, the town has loads of coffee shops - that's not what we are."

Ben Francis, of the Federation of Small Business, said it was "incredibly important" that promised funding "can be rolled out as a matter of urgency".

"There is no getting away from the fact that today's announcement will come as a devastating blow to those indoor entertainment and hospitality firms that have fought tooth and nail to protect jobs, remain viable and provide a safe environment for their staff and customers this year."

Meanwhile, Folly Farm adventure park and zoo in Pembrokeshire announced it would be closing, saying it was "heavily reliant" on the indoor part of the business.

A spokesman for the Welsh Association of Visitor Attractions, which represents more than 70 family attractions in Wales, said the Welsh Government did not consult with tourism leaders before deciding the new rules.

"The health of Wales is paramount, but the way tourism decisions are now being taken is scandalous.

"Some members have stated that the stop-go, no-consultation policy of the Welsh Government is affecting both their health and well-being, and that the Welsh tourism industry is in a state of utter despair at the way it is being treated," it said.

A giraffe at Folly Farm
Geograph/Gareth James

The first minister told the press conference that the evidence "is there" that the virus is spreading in hospitality - and said it could be seen from a series of reports from the Welsh Government's Technical Advisory Cell.

"When people meet together in a hospitality setting, you're not just having a glancing encounter with somebody as you do if you're going round a supermarket," he said.

"You're sitting together with people for a significant period of time."

BBC Wales has asked to see the evidence cited by Mr Drakeford.

A Welsh Government spokesman referred to a report from the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) in September which estimated that closing bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants would have a "moderate impact" on Covid transmission.

Hospitality businesses were allowed to open after the firebreak ended earlier in November.

Mr Drakeford said scientific and medical experts had warned that by 12 January, the total number of people with Covid in hospital could rise to 2,200 "unless we respond now".

According to the House Of Commons Library there are 2,190 pubs in Wales.

Pub in Wrexham
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What is the political reaction?

Paul Davies, Welsh Conservative Senedd leader, said: "This blanket approach across all of Wales is disproportionate and will unfairly affect parts of the country where infection rates are significantly lower than others, and will harm the sector to such an extent that large parts of it may not recover."

Plaid Cymru said it had called for stricter measures as Wales came out of its firebreak lockdown.

"The Labour Welsh Government failed to do that and now hospitality is paying the price," Helen Mary Jones, Plaid's economy spokeswoman, said.

Caroline Jones, of the Independent Reform Alliance in the Senedd, said the national approach would "strangle the hospitality sector further at the very time of year in the run up to Christmas where many pubs, cafes and restaurants make their profits".

Man walks past pub in Cardiff
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What business support will be available?

The £160m "Restrictions Business Fund" will offer firms in the hospitality, tourism and leisure sectors that pay non-domestic rates (NDR) grants of up to £5,000.

The Welsh Government estimated around 60,000 businesses with a rateable value of under £150,000 would receive the support.

A "sector-specific" £180m Economic Resilience Fund would be made available for hospitality, tourism and leisure businesses.

The Welsh Government said small and medium sized businesses meeting the criteria could receive up to £100,000, while larger firms could receive up to a maximum of £150,000.

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Analysis by Sarah Dickins, BBC Wales economics correspondent

The financial support for the hospitality industry is significant and much more than it has been given before.

But coming just a month after the two-week firebreak, these restrictions will be a deadly blow for some traders.

Once again the Welsh Government is having to walk a fine line, beating the virus by reducing the amount we meet others, while at the same time trying to protect the businesses we usually go out to.

Urban pubs may still attract shoppers for a "dry" lunch but they are unlikely to spend nearly as much as usual.

Rural pubs, often a community's main place to meet, are more dependent on their evening trade.

The money they are getting from the Welsh Government might well pay overheads like rent and insurance but these are businesses that have already taken a huge hit this year.

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2020-11-30 21:58:00Z
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COVID-19: Government accused of providing little new information in impact assessment on tougher coronavirus tiers - Sky News

The government has been accused of producing a "rehashed document" in a bid to quell a Tory rebellion over its strengthened coronavirus tiers.

Ministers have released an impact assessment of the new tiered system of COVID-19 restrictions ahead of a Commons vote on Tuesday.

Boris Johnson is battling to avoid a damaging Conservative revolt over the measures, with many of his MPs unhappy with the new system that is set to come into effect in England when the second lockdown ends on Wednesday.

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PM faces lockdown showdown with Tory MPs

According to a tally by Sky News, a total of 65 Tories have voiced their unhappiness over the tiers, or have said they are unlikely to support the measures.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has revealed his party will not oppose the tiered system, instead abstaining in the vote.

"It's very important as the opposition that we act in the national interest," he said.

"We do have serious misgivings about the government scheme, the proposals, but we will not be voting them down tomorrow, we will not be voting against them."

More from Covid-19

In response, Number 10 accused the Labour leader of "playing politics in the middle of a global pandemic instead of working with the government to find a way through this difficult time for the British people".

In its impact assessment, the government says that while the new restrictions will have a "significant" impact on the economy, allowing COVID-19 to run unchecked would be "much worse" for public health.

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'We've got this virus back under control'

The document states that failing to keep stringent measures in place would see the NHS overwhelmed and lead to an "intolerable" loss of life.

But in a withering response, a senior Tory MP has claimed the impact assessment contains little new information.

"With little over 24 hours until MPs vote on the new tiered system, this rehashed document offers very little further in economic terms other than that which the OBR published last week," Treasury Select Committee chair Mel Stride said.

"It's frustrating that there is little here that sets out how the different tiers might impact on the specific sectors and regions across the country.

"Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will struggle to find it in this document."

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Mark Harper, chair of the COVID Recovery Group of Conservative MPs who are sceptical of further restrictions, said the analysis "seems to be collapsing under the glare of scrutiny" and "the wheels are coming off the government's arguments".

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, has said he is almost certain to vote against the government.

Speaking at an online event organised by the Institute for Economic Affairs, he said: "My concerns about the impact on civil liberties and fundamental human rights are there regardless.

"The fact is that my own constituency [Altrincham and Sale West] has been put inside the wrong tier without good justification - unless that were to change, it makes it inevitable that I would vote against."

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COVID hotspots targeted with mass testing

Tory opposition to the tiers is being driven by the fact that 99% of England's population will fall under the two toughest tiers from Wednesday.

About 32 million people - covering 57.3% of England - will fall into Tier 2. But 23.3 million people - 41.5% of the population - are going to be placed in Tier 3.

Large parts of the Midlands, the North East and the North West will be subject to the severest measures.

Hospitality venues will be closed in the run-up to Christmas unless they can provide takeaway or delivery services, and households are forbidden from mixing indoors.

Many MPs have questioned the basis for the tier decisions and raised fears about the economic impact.

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COVID-19: Restrictions likely until Easter

Mr Johnson has acknowledged that "lots of people think that they are in the wrong tier" but is insistent that the measures are needed to slow the spread of coronavirus.

It would be wrong to "take our foot off the throat of the beast" now, the prime minister said.

The health secretary has also appealed to Tory MPs to support the tiered system, claiming it is the "best way" to avoid a third national lockdown.

"I would urge all MPs right across the House to vote for the tiered system," Matt Hancock told a Downing Street news conference.

Mr Hancock said England's lockdown means "we've got this virus back under control" - but warned continued vigilance is needed.

Analysis: Tiers assessment may not satisfy sceptical MPs
By Tom Rayner, political correspondent

Conservative opponents of the new regional tier restrictions have been very specific about what they wanted to see from the government's impact assessment of the new tier system.

Mark Harper, the former chief whip and chair of the COVID Recovery Group, said MPs needed to know the social and economic impact of "every proposed restriction" within each tier before they cast their votes in the Commons on Tuesday.

But the document published by the government does not do that.

Instead it says "it is not possible to forecast the precise economic impact of a specific change to a specific restriction with confidence".

There is acknowledgement that the latest forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility was based on the looser tier system in place before the England-wide lockdown, and therefore the new tougher version of the regional tier system could see greater short-term economic losses "to the extent that average restrictions in the UK are stricter".

But an assessment of the economic impact of only being able to go to a pub with your own household in Tier 2, for example, is not included.

The broad justification for the tier system set out in the document is the same made by ministers in recent days - that while there will be economic and social costs, failing to act and risking the NHS being overwhelmed would be "intolerable for our society".

But for Conservative backbenchers considering voting against the government, the repetition of this argument may not be sufficient to change their minds.

They know the argument but they want to see solid evidence to justify it, and it's not clear this document will be perceived to have provided that.

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2020-11-30 21:00:00Z
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