The head of the British Army has warned that his forces, including all reserves, would not be large enough to defend the country if there is a war with Russia and it was essential to plan for national mobilisation.
General Sir Patrick Sanders said lessons must be learned from the Ukraine war which showed the value of a citizen army. He pointed to the defence strategies being adopted by Baltic and Scandinavian states to involve the general population as a way forward.
The Chief of General Staff (CGS) is said to be opposed to conscription, but held that civilians need to be involved in defending the country at a time of conflict.
Speaking at a conference on armoured warfare in Twickenham, south-west London, Gen Sanders said: “We need an Army designed to expand rapidly to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon, and train and equip the citizen army that must follow.
“Within the next 3 years, it must be credible to talk of a British Army of 120 000, folding in our Reserve and strategic reserve. But this is not enough.
“Our friends in Eastern and Northern Europe, who feel the proximity of the Russian threat more acutely, are already acting prudently, laying the foundations for national mobilisation.
“As the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee warned just last week, and as the Swedish government has done, preparing Sweden for entry to NATO, taking preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing when needed are now not merely desirable, but essential.”
The UK will not escape the consequences of all out war, Gen Sanders said, and must be prepared for what may lie ahead. He said: “We will not be immune and as the pre-war generation we must similarly prepare - and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine he stressed was “not merely about the black soil of the Donbas, nor the re-establishment of a Russian empire, it’s about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically, and symbolically. How we respond as the pre-war generation will reverberate through history. Ukrainian bravery is buying time, for now.”
Gen Sanders, who is due to leave his post this year, has been critical of cuts to the military and its effects in the past. In 2022 he described downsizing of the Army “perverse”, especially so “as a land war rages in Europe and Putin’s territorial ambitions extend into the rest of the decade, and beyond Ukraine”.
Last summer, he compared Army vehicles like the Warrior armoured vehicle and the Challenger 2 tank to “rotary dial telephones in an iPhone age”. He said “our procurement record has been poor and our land industrial base has withered. Furthermore our Army Reserve is not as capable and credible as we need it to be”.
Speaking at the conference Gen Sanders said “over the last 30 years, the Army has been halved in size; in the last 12 years, we’ve absorbed a 28% reduction”. And this was while there is “a fragile world order that our enemies wish to dismantle. I use that term with care, noting that the definition encompasses those who actively oppose or are hostile to our interests”.
While recruitment has been a problem through public services “applications to join the Army are the highest in 6 years. Our nation’s youth are as ready to serve, to seek adventure, to find where they belong, and to better themselves as they ever were. I see the very best of them every day, selflessly committed to service in the armed forces. Generation Z serves with distinction today but they, like their peers of any generation”,.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the military, has pointed out that the Army will be recapitalised next decade with a £44 billion programme. Gen Sanders pointed out “ that money is just 18% committed. During an electoral cycle, uncommitted money is vulnerable.
The National Audit Office’s report into the MoD’s Equipment Plan reported that the Army was £12 billion short of the funding required to meet the full demands of the Integrated Review Refresh. It noted, nevertheless and unlike other services, that by taking considered risks against capability, the Army’s plan is affordable.”
Gen Sanders comments come just days after Nato military commander Admiral Rob Bauer said that the military alliance needed to prepare for conflict with Vladimir Putin’s forces in the next 20 years.
He said that a large amount of civilians will have to be called out if conflict accelerates in Europe and that governments needed to consider “mobilisation, reservists or conscription”.
Adml Bauer said: “The discussion is much wider... people that have to understand they play a role... The realisation that not everything is plannable and not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.”
Gen Sanders intervention comes as the army has faced growing recruitment challenges, but remained focused on bolstering hiring and improving retention – and last summer laid out pay increases for personnel.
Last week General Lord Dannatt, a former general staff of the British Army, hit out at the shrinking size of the army. He said it had fallen from 102,000 personnel in 2006 to 74,000 today and was “falling fast”.
Writing in The Times, he drew parallels with the 1930s when the “woeful” state of the UK’s armed forces failed to deter Hitler. “There is a serious danger of history repeating itself,” he said.
Pointing to rising geopolitical uncertainty, he said: “If our armed forces are not strong enough to deter future aggression from Moscow or Beijing it will not be a small war to contend with but a major one.”
Under government proposals, the size of the regular army will be cut from a commitment of 82,000 troops to 73,000 by 2025.
But analysis by the The Times suggested numbers could drop below that as soon as next year and continue on a steep downward trajectory.
If the army continues to shed troops at the current rate, the number of regular soldiers will fall below 70,000 by 2026, according to the figures compiled by the newspaper.
Additional reporting by PA
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2024-01-24 13:43:44Z
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