Everything now hinges on our appetite for risk.
The faster we dump the cautious behaviour of the last 15 months, the bigger the peak in infections, hospital admissions and deaths over the summer and autumn.
The documents from the government's scientific advisers on the SAGE committee show a range of possible scenarios that depend on vaccine uptake, the effectiveness of the jabs at stopping people from spreading the virus, and, significantly, on how quickly we return to normal life.
Live COVID updates from the UK and around the world
There are huge uncertainties, with big impacts on how bad the third wave will be.
But even with the central "medium" scenario there could be between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions and 100-200 deaths a day at the peak of the wave.
That assumes that people still hold on to behaviours that together reduce transmission of the virus by around 20%.
That's a combination of things, but in essence the more people who avoid crowded indoor areas and wear a mask when that's not possible, work from home and so on, the better.
And the slower people relax and go back to normal the better.
If there is a small change in behaviour at first, with a return to normality over one month, then the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 will be close to the peak in January that threatened to overwhelm the NHS.
If the return to normality is over five months, then the peak in hospital occupancy will be less than half that.
A key metric in determining how easy it is for the virus spreads is the number of contacts we have with people from outside our household.
Before the pandemic we had 11 a day on average - with younger people having more than those a bit older.
Right now the average is six, so roughly half the social contact we had before COVID. And it hasn't changed significantly as lockdown has been rolled back.
People do seem to be cautious. Surveys show the majority intend to keep using masks in many situations.
But the mixed messaging from ministers over the need for precautions threatens to undermine that, and the new models show the consequences for the NHS could be serious.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMifmh0dHBzOi8vbmV3cy5za3kuY29tL3N0b3J5L2NvdmlkLTE5LW1pbmlzdGVycy1taXhlZC1tZXNzYWdpbmctdGhyZWF0ZW5zLXRvLXVuZGVybWluZS1wdWJsaWMtYXBwZXRpdGUtZm9yLW1hc2std2VhcmluZy0xMjM1NDUzMNIBggFodHRwczovL25ld3Muc2t5LmNvbS9zdG9yeS9hbXAvY292aWQtMTktbWluaXN0ZXJzLW1peGVkLW1lc3NhZ2luZy10aHJlYXRlbnMtdG8tdW5kZXJtaW5lLXB1YmxpYy1hcHBldGl0ZS1mb3ItbWFzay13ZWFyaW5nLTEyMzU0NTMw?oc=5
2021-07-12 18:04:04Z
52781728628951
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar