What are the chances of 21 June easing being delayed?
There is less than a 50% chance of the final roadmap easing scheduled for 21 June being delayed, a member of SAGE has said.
Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, is a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Speaking to LBC this morning, he said the chance of a delay in June was "well less than 50%" but added "it is uncertain".
"It's a risk... I think it's better than 50% that we'll go through this next phase without having to close things again rapidly, but we're moving back to the situation we were in 2018 before all this all started when there was a risk that we would have a pandemic, but people weren't factoring that into account.
"Now we are in the middle of this epidemic and so the risks are bigger, but it's impossible to give an accurate number to it."
Prof Medley said he thought "there's one other wave" of infection to come in the UK, but hopefully "vaccines will hold back the virus and prevent people going to hospital".
He said it would be "at some point during the summer, maybe late into September or October, depending on how much people mix - so one of the things we can't do is with the modelling is to basically predict what people will do".
On whether he would go to a pub or restaurant indoors, he said: "If it was suitably organised, and it looks OK and I was in an area with low prevalence and the clientele was very old, then I would think 'OK, fair enough, they've all been vaccinated'.
"I think it's about individual risks and people taking that choice, which is different from what the government has to do, which is to avoid the risk of large numbers of people in hospital again."
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMid2h0dHBzOi8vbmV3cy5za3kuY29tL3N0b3J5L2NvdmlkLW5ld3MtbGl2ZS11ay1sYXRlc3QtY29yb25hdmlydXMtcm9hZG1hcC1wdWJzLWVuZ2xhbmQtd2FsZXMtc2NvdGxhbmQtcmVvcGVuaW5nLTEyMzA4ODI20gEA?oc=5
2021-05-17 10:41:15Z
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