Nicola Sturgeon: Scotland 'cannot be imprisoned' in UK - BBC News

Scotland "cannot be imprisoned in the union against its will" by the UK government, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

The Scottish first minister says the SNP's success in the general election gives her a mandate to hold a new referendum on independence.

However, UK ministers are opposed to such a move with Michael Gove saying the vote in 2014 should be "respected".

Ms Sturgeon told the BBC that if the UK was to continue as a union, "it can only be by consent".

She told The Andrew Marr Show that the UK government would be "completely wrong" to think saying no to a referendum would be the end of the matter, adding: "It's a fundamental point of democracy - you can't hold Scotland in the union against its will."

However Mr Gove told the Sophy Ridge programme on Sky that "we were told in 2014 that that would be a choice for a generation - we are not going to have an independence referendum in Scotland".

The SNP won a landslide of Scottish seats in the snap general election, making gains from the Conservatives and Labour and unseating Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.

However UK-wide the Conservatives won a comfortable majority, returning Boris Johnson to Downing Street and setting up a constitutional stand-off over Scotland's future.

The Scottish government wants a referendum deal with UK ministers similar to that which underpinned the 2014 vote, to ensure that the outcome is legal and legitimate - but are facing opposition from the UK government.

Ms Sturgeon said it was "fundamentally not democratic" for Mr Johnson to rule out a referendum when his party had been "defeated comprehensively" in Scotland - losing seven of its 13 seats while standing on a platform of opposition to independence.

The SNP leader said: "I said this to him on Friday night on the telephone - if he thinks saying no is the end of the matter then he's going to find himself completely and utterly wrong.

"It's a fundamental point of democracy - you can't hold Scotland in the union against its will. You can't lock us in a cupboard and turn the key and hope everything goes away.

"If the UK is to continue it can only be by consent. If Boris Johnson is confident in the case for the union he should be confident enough to make that case and allow people to decide.

"Scotland cannot be imprisoned within the United Kingdom against its will. These are just basic statements of democracy."

'Contempt for democracy'

Ms Sturgeon added: "The risk for the Conservatives here is the more they try to block the will of the Scottish people, the more utter contempt they show for Scottish democracy, the more they will increase support for Scottish independence - which in a sense is them doing my job for me.

"The momentum and the mandate is on the side of those of us who think Scotland should be independent, but also on the side of those who want Scotland to be able to chose its own future."

Mr Johnson spoke to Ms Sturgeon on the phone after being returned to government, and told her that he "remains opposed" to a second independence vote.

A Downing Street spokesman said the prime minster was "standing with the majority of people in Scotland who do not want to return to division and uncertainty".

This was echoed on Sunday morning by Mr Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, who said the result of the previous referendum in 2014 should hold for "a generation".

He said: "In this general election we have just seen what happens when politicians try to overturn a referendum result, and in the same way we should respect the referendum result in 2014 in Scotland.

"Scotland is stronger in the United Kingdom. You can be proudly Scottish and proudly British together.

"The best of this country are British institutions like the NHS and the BBC, and therefore we should be proud of what we have achieved together and confident that the UK is a strong partnership that works in the interests of all."

Scotland

After 59 of 59 seats

• Scottish National Party SNP

  48 seats

  , +13 seats compared to 2017

• Conservative CON

  6 seats

  , -7 seats compared to 2017

• Liberal Democrat LD

  4 seats

  , +0 seats compared to 2017

• Labour LAB

  1 seats

  , -6 seats compared to 2017

Labour went into the election opposing independence in principle, but open to the idea of backing a referendum should pro-independence parties win the majority of seats in the 2021 Holyrood election.

The party lost all but one of its Scottish seats, shedding votes in every constituency, and former MP Paul Sweeney said it was important for Labour to "reflect" on the constitutional position.

He told the BBC's Sunday Politics Scotland programme: "The way the British state is currently constructed is not sustainable. I think we need to develop a clear policy which is in the form of an ultimatum to the UK government.

"You have to say to the British government that unless you recognise that the Scottish body politic at large is not willing to accept the current status quo, unless you recognise that there has to be a major engagement with the Scottish body politic to reform the British state and recognise the difference of opinion in Scotland, then the UK is unsustainable.

"A more federal relationship is something that urgently needs to happen, and I think we need to be galvanised to present an argument that that needs to happen."

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2019-12-15 09:41:47Z
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What did the UK elections teach us about 2020? Trust the polls - CNN

Maybe you think Republican President Donald Trump has reason to smile after his friend, Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, won a big mandate.

Maybe you think the crushing defeat of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party shows the peril of the Democrats potentially nominating Bernie Sanders.

Those theories may prove to be true, but I think the clearest lesson is staring us right in the face: The polls are still pretty good as we head into the 2020 presidential election in the US.

Take a look at the average of polls for the four parties that have earned at least 10 seats each in the House of Commons (the UK Parliament's lower House). The average of the final UK polls had the Conservatives winning 43% of the vote, Labour 33%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Scottish Nationals 4%.

The actual result was Conservatives taking 43.6%, Labour 32.2%, the Liberal Democrats 11.6% and the Scottish Nationals 3.9%. In other words, each of these parties got within 1 point of its final polled vote share.

This remarkably accurate result was better than we'd expect based on history. The final 2019 polling average missed the margin between Conservative and Labour by about 1.9 points. Since the 1945 election (i.e. the prior 20 UK general elections), the average final poll had missed by 3.9 points.

Indeed, despite a lot of cries that the polls are broken, the UK elections taking place during the Trump administration show that isn't true. Beyond this year, the difference between the Conservatives and Labour margin in the final 2017 polling average and election result was 4 points. In other words, it's right in line with what we'd expect, given the historical polling accuracy rates.

The US's own polls have likewise been fairly accurate during the Trump era. The average House, Senate and governor's polls were about a point more accurate in 2018 than they had been in similar elections over the prior 20 years. The same was generally true for House special election polling in the 2017-2018 cycle and the three governor elections of 2019 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi).

Another key point is that just because one side outperformed in the polls in the last election doesn't mean the same party will outperform in the next one. I know some people were expecting (and a lot of Labourites were hoping) that because the polls underestimated Labour in 2017 they would do the same in 2019. It didn't happen. The Conservatives were actually slightly underestimated.

Again, we saw this same lesson play out in the US over the past few years. After the polling underestimated the Republicans almost across the board in 2016, there was less of a systematic error in 2018. The polls slightly underestimated the Democrats on average. Now, the polls weren't perfect in 2018 in the US, but they were better than average and correctly projected a strong Democratic year. Similarly, the polls, if anything, underestimated the Democrats in the gubernatorial elections of 2019 and special elections over the course of 2017 and 2018.

The direction of the polling errors is most often random. If something is methodologically amiss in surveys, good pollsters tend to figure out what's wrong before the next election.

None of this guarantees that the final polls will correctly gauge who is going to win or lose in 2020. There are still margins of error, so someone slightly ahead in the polls may end up losing. Likewise, someone slightly behind may end up winning.

But in an era with a lot of disinformation out there, the polls continue to do a very good job of separating the signal from the noise.

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2019-12-14 13:32:00Z
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Peter McMahon: UK election was 'a great, big stonking rejection of Jeremy Corbyn' - Fox News

Peter McMahon joined wife Dana Perino and Fox News Digital Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt to break down the result of this week's general election in McMahon's native United Kingdom on the latest edition of the "Perino & Stirewalt: I'll Tell You What" podcast.

The Conservative Party dominated Thursday's election, winning 365 seats in the 650-member House of Commons to give Prime Minister Boris Johnson a clear majority of 80 seats. The opposition Labour Party, led by hard-left parliamentarian Jeremy Corbyn, could only win 203 seats, their worst result in a general election since 1935.

"First of all, kudos to Boris Johnson," McMahon told Perino and Stirewalt. "He's only the second prime minister I've known in my lifetime who has had the guts to say, 'Back me or sack me.' The only other one was Ted Heath when the miners were on strike back in [the mid-1970s] ... Boris did the same."

However, McMahon took issue with Johnson's characterization of the result as "a great, big stonking mandate for Brexit," saying it was actually "a great, big stonking rejection of Jeremy Corbyn."

"Labour's worst enemy was actually Jeremy Corbyn because he was unelectable," McMahon said ... "He's probably the worst Labour leader in living memory, and that says something, there's been a few ... He's pro-Hamas, he was pro-IRA [Irish Republican Army] in the days when those big, brave heroes were murdering children in the name of Irish unity. The man's a disaster."

When asked by Stirewalt whether the Labour Party would moderate its hard-left policies in the wake of Thursday's defeat, McMahon said: "I believe that they will probably keep going the way they've been going. They have a lot of people who are, they're not just socialists, they're Marxists and they have a lot of power in the Labour Party."

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Stirewalt noted that Thursday's landslide for Johnson is "the election Donald Trump is hoping for."

"The election Donald Trump is hoping for is, 'Look, you may not like me, I may have unusual hair, I may be not your exact cup of tea. But this other person is a kook and a socialist and a crazy person and they want open borders and late-term abortion and all of this stuff.' And that's why for Democrats, they feel this urgent need about, 'We've got to find somebody who's moderate enough to talk to people in the suburbs and to talk to working-class white voters."

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2019-12-14 03:26:41Z
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General election 2019: PM to visit north after Labour heartland gains - BBC News

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Boris Johnson is to visit the north of England later, hours after celebrating his party's biggest election win for 30 years by sweeping aside Labour in its traditional heartlands.

The prime minister has said he hopes the Conservatives' victory will bring "closure" to the Brexit debate and "let the healing begin".

He won a Commons majority of 80, his party's largest since 1987.

In contrast, Labour suffered its worst election result since the 1930s.

Jeremy Corbyn said he did "everything he could" to get Labour into power but expects to stand down "early next year" when a successor has been chosen by the party.

The Labour leader said the election was "taken over by Brexit", while others within the party blamed Mr Corbyn's leadership for the defeat.

He said he would not step down as leader yet because the "responsible thing to do is not to walk away from the whole thing".

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Mr Johnson, however, is expected to announce a minor re-shuffle possibly as early as Monday.

MPs will then return to Westminster on Tuesday and begin the process of swearing in, before the Queen formally opens Parliament on Thursday with "reduced ceremonial elements".

The prime minister has also vowed to reintroduce his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to Parliament before Christmas, which could happen by the end of next week.

It would see MPs begin the process of considering legislation that would pave the way for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January. Talks about a future trade and security relationship will begin almost immediately.

There were protests in London on Friday following Mr Johnson's election victory.

Demonstrators in Westminster carried signs that read "Defy Tory Rule" and "No to Boris Johnson".

The Metropolitan Police said two people were arrested in relation to the protests - one person on suspicion of assaulting a police officer and another for suspected affray.

Following the Conservatives' election win, Mr Johnson spoke to SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon on Friday evening and reiterated his opposition to a second independence referendum in Scotland.

It came after the first minister said the PM had "no right" to stand in the way of a second vote following her party's "overwhelming" election performance. The SNP won 48 of Scotland's 59 seats.

Speaking on Radio 4's Any Questions on Friday, senior cabinet minister Thérèse Coffey insisted there would be no referendum on Scottish independence during Conservatives' five year term.

After speaking to Ms Sturgeon, the PM also took phone calls from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar to discuss the next steps on Brexit.

The Conservatives won a total of 365 seats in the election, while Labour finished on 203, the SNP 48, Liberal Democrats 11 and the DUP eight.

Sinn Fein has seven MPs, Plaid Cymru four and Northern Ireland's SDLP two. The Green Party and NI's Alliance Party have one each.

The Brexit Party - which triumphed in the summer's European Parliament elections - failed to win any Westminster seats.

The Conservatives swept aside Labour in its traditional heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England and picked up seats across Wales, while holding off the Lib Dem challenge in many seats in the south of England.

Voter turnout overall, on a cold and damp polling day, was 67.3%, which is down by 1.5% on the 2017 total.

'Let the healing begin'

Speaking outside No 10 on Friday, Mr Johnson said he hoped his party's "extraordinary" election victory would bring "closure" to the Brexit debate and "let the healing begin".

He also thanked lifelong Labour supporters who deserted Jeremy Corbyn's party and turned to the Conservatives, saying he would fulfil his pledge to take the UK out of the EU on 31 January.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are looking for a new leader after Jo Swinson lost her Dunbartonshire East seat to the SNP by 149 votes.

While she admitted her "unapologetic" pro-Remain strategy had not worked, she said she did not regret standing up for her "liberal values" and urged the party to "regroup and refresh" itself in the face of a "nationalist surge" in British politics.

Sir Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton will be acting co-leaders for the party now that Ms Swinson is no longer an MP.

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2019-12-14 03:21:11Z
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UK election results: Labour’s crushing defeat, explained - Vox.com

The British electorate voted Thursday in one of the most important elections in the country’s modern history. And the results show that they voted overwhelmingly for Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson and for Brexit: a 78-seat parliamentary majority for Johnson and the worst showing for the opposition, the left-wing Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, in nearly 100 years.

This does not appear to be because Johnson was a particularly adept or well-liked political figure. His approval ratings were deeply in the negative, according to prelection data from YouGov. His central campaign promise, finally getting out of the European Union, divided the country in half. He has a reputation as an untrustworthy buffoon and an even more sinister history of racism: He has compared women in burkas to “letterboxes” and claimed that Muslim immigrants lack “loyalty to Britain” because of their religion: “Islam is the problem,” as he put it. He once penned a column describing Africans as “pickanninies” with “watermelon smiles.”

Johnson appears to have benefitted not from his own unique political talents, but from his opponent’s problems. Brexit put Corbyn in a much tougher position than Johnson, needing to appeal to both Leave and Remain voters while Johnson could focus on the former. But Corbyn was also profoundly unpopular personally: While Johnson was at minus 12 in the YouGov approval rating polling, Corbyn was at negative 40.

Corbyn’s attempt to straddle the line on the decisive issue of Brexit ended up with a wishy-washy and incoherent muddle that neither Remainers nor Leavers could believe in. Some of his leftist economic policies polled well, but Corbyn himself wasn’t viewed as a credible leader — even on issues like health care where his policy approach resonated with a lot of the public. He also presided over a significant rise in anti-Semitism in the party’s ranks; he had recently been condemned by the leading Jewish Labour organization for turning their party into “a welcoming refuge for anti-Semites.”

Corbyn is, in some ways, yesterday’s problem. He has already vowed to resign before the next UK election, his political ambitions in shambles.

But the question of how Labour can recover — and what this tells us about the global fight against parties like the Conservatives that embrace right-wing populism — is still very much unsettled.

Historically, both British and European politics more broadly have been heavily determined by class divisions. Left-wing parties like Labour dominated among the industrial working class, while right-wing parties like the Tories did well among society’s upper crust.

But in the past several decades, this historical pattern became unglued. Educated urban professionals have drifted left and the working classes have tiled right, a shift that social scientists attribute to the rising importance of immigration and identity issues in European politics. In Britain, Brexit supercharged this long-running process, as highly educated city dwellers tended to oppose Brexit (making them more likely to vote Labour) while rural and less educated voters tended to support it (making them more likely to vote Conservative).

The 2019 election results reflected the post-Brexit realignment. Labour was absolutely devastated in its traditional working class constituencies (the UK equivalent to congressional districts), with the Conservatives — long caricatured as the parties of the rich — making historic inroads. “The resounding Conservative victory was driven by a dramatic swing of working-class support away from Labour,” as the Financial Times put it in a post-election data analysis.

“In seats with high shares of people in low-skilled jobs, the Conservative vote share increased by an average of six percentage points and the Labour share fell by 14 points. In seats with the lowest share of low-skilled jobs, the Tory vote share fell by four points and Labour’s fell by seven,” the FT said in its analysis. “The swing of working class areas from Labour to Conservative had the strongest statistical association of any explored by the FT.”

This is extremely preliminary: We don’t yet know which voters in these constituencies voted which way, so we can’t yet say whether class itself is the key. Indeed, another analysis by Will Jennings, a political scientist at the University of Southampton, suggested that education level — the percentage of college graduates in a constituency — was actually more important than income level or class per se, which would be consistent with long-term data on European political realignment.

But what’s clear is that Labour’s theory of the case — that its socialist policy manifesto would be able to win back Brexit voters in its traditional working-class heartland and secure the cities — was a failure. The question is why.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, now and for quite some time.

Stefan Rousseau/WPA Pool/Getty Images

The debate among British analysts has largely polarized along pro- and anti-Corbyn lines.

The pro-Corbyn analysis is that Brexit was a unique event that swamped their otherwise popular economic agenda, creating an impossible task for Labour of appealing to both its Remain supporters in London and the Leavers in the north of England.

Anti-Corbyn analysts suggest that his attempt to have it both ways on Brexit — calling for a second referendum but not saying which side he would support — was a poor way of handling the dilemma, depressing Remain voters everywhere without winning over Leavers attracted to Johnson’s simple message. In this view, Corbyn was so incredibly unpopular, his socialism so out of touch with the British public, and his failure to tackle the anti-Semitism crisis so toxic, that he had doomed the party by leading it.

As is often the case in situations like this, the answer is somewhere in the middle. “In a shock move,” UK politics analyst Torsten Bell writes, “the ‘it was Brexit’ vs ‘it was Corbyn’ debate misses the blindingly obvious fact that it was both.”

It’s true that Labour was in a tough position on Brexit, needing to hold support in Leave constituencies and turn out Remain voters. The Tories, by contrast, figured out a way to win on a simple Leave message.

But it’s also clear that Labour did badly across the board: Jennings’s analysis finds that Labour lost support even in cities, a result that suggests that Corbyn’s personal unpopularity was depressing voters who should (on the Brexit theory) be supporting the more Remain-friendly party.

This early analysis suggests that Labour was simply unprepared to fight the battle on the terms the Tories were waging. Though Johnson was widely unpopular, his party also moved to the center on economic issues, a strategy that helped sideline Corbyn’s class-based appeal and emphasized the largely identity-based fight over Brexit. Brexit carried the day by appealing to British insularity and hostility to outsiders. Johnson mobilized voters who found this vision attractive, as well as those simply frustrated with the dragged-out Brexit process, and won a huge victory.

Due to a combination of legitimate strategic difficulty and the gross incompetence of its leader, Labour simply didn’t have an effective response. The question of how to fight back against the Tory embrace of right-wing populism, to mobilize a counter-movement in favor of a more inclusive British identity, is still an open one.

For those of us troubled by the illiberal drift among advanced democracies — not just Britain or Europe, but also the United States — these results cannot be taken as a good sign.

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2019-12-13 15:00:00Z
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U.K. Election Live Updates: In Victory, Johnson Promises Brexit and More - The New York Times

Here’s what you need to know:

• Conservatives celebrate their biggest win since Margaret Thatcher.
• Boris Johnson promises Brexit, and a life after it.
• Big gains for the Scottish National Party raise questions of independence.
• Jeremy Corbyn says he will step aside — but not yet.
• The Conservative victory buoyed the pound and stocks.

Image

Celebrations at a Conservative results party at a pub in central London.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Conservatives celebrate their biggest win since Margaret Thatcher.

With all districts declared, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives had won 365 seats — 48 more than they won in the last election, in 2017.

The victory is the party’s biggest since Margaret Thatcher captured a third term in 1987 — “literally before many of you were born,” Mr. Johnson told supporters Friday morning. It gives him a comfortable majority in the 650-seat House of Commons.

“We did it,” he said on Friday. “We smashed it, didn’t we?”

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party had to reach even farther back to find a more extreme result. It won 203 seats, down 59 from the previous vote, in its worst showing since 1935. It had not suffered a similar drubbing since 1983, when it took 209 seats.

The Scottish National Party captured 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats, a gain of 13. The Liberal Democrats, who were hoping to ride an anti-Brexit stance back to prominence, won just 11 seats, one fewer than in 2017.

The Conservatives collected 43.6 percent of the popular vote, to 32.2 percent for Labour. That 11.3 percentage point margin was also the largest for the Tories since 1987 — a dramatic shift from 2017, when Labour lost the popular vote by just 2.4 percent.

U.K. Election Results Map: How Conservatives Won in a Landslide

Prime Minister Boris Johnson secured a large majority in Parliament. Here’s how he did it.

Boris Johnson promises Brexit, and a life after it.

Speaking to his constituents in Uxbridge early Friday morning, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the election results appeared to have given his government “a powerful new mandate to get Brexit done.”

Later in the morning, he told supporters, “we put an end to all those miserable threats of a second referendum” that might have reversed the results of the 2016 vote on Brexit.

“We will get Brexit done on time on the 31st of January — no ifs, no buts, no maybes,” he added.

He visited Buckingham Palace and met with Queen Elizabeth II, who formally asked him to form a new government.

He also promised that his government would spend more at home after a decade of austerity under Conservative governments — in particular on Britain’s National Health Service, known commonly as the N.H.S., a cherished program whose conditions have deteriorated.

Mr. Johnson said that he would seek “to unite this country and to take it forward and to focus on the priorities of the British people, and above all on the N.H.S.”

As hospital beds have overflowed, waiting times have gone up and vacancies have gone unfilled, many Britons have grown fearful that the health service could be privatized or otherwise overhauled — for instance by a trade deal with the United States that could drive up drug prices. (President Trump, tweeting congratulations on Friday morning, said Britain could “strike a massive new Trade Deal” after Brexit.)

Mr. Johnson insisted he would protect the health service, echoing his campaign promises to hire 50,000 more nurses and 6,000 doctors.

He promised again to hire more police officers, whose ranks have also thinned, and vowed “colossal new investments in infrastructure and science.”

“Let’s spread opportunity to every corner of the U.K.”

Big gains for the Scottish National Party raise questions of independence.

The Scottish National Party’s success — it won 48 of the 59 seats that it contested — will intensify the debate over independence for Scotland, which voted against Brexit and has largely rejected Britain’s major parties.

In a 2014 referendum, 45 percent of the voters in Scotland backed independence, and as Brexit approaches, the Scottish National Party, which backs independence, has insisted on a second referendum.

Mr. Johnson has said a national government under him would not hold a Scottish independence vote, but the Scottish government has suggested that it might go ahead with one. And on Friday morning, hours after the result of the vote was clear, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and the first minister of Scotland, said it planned to do just that.

That raises the prospect of the kind of disarray and animosity plaguing Spain, where the government of Catalonia held an independence referendum two years ago that the central government said was illegal.

“It is clear beyond any doubt that the kind of future desired by the majority in Scotland is very different to that chosen by much of the rest of the U.K.,” Ms. Sturgeon told reporters during a news briefing.

“Scotland has rejected Boris Johnson and the Tories and yet again we have said no to Brexit,” Ms. Sturgeon said. She said within one week, the Scottish government would publish their plan for holding a new referendum.

“I accept, regretfully, that he has a mandate for Brexit in England,” she said. “But he has no mandate whatsoever to take Scotland out of the European Union.”

Ms. Sturgeon was clear that the decision on Scottish independence should be left up to the Scottish people, not the prime minister, to decide.

“The people of Scotland have spoken, it is time now to decide our own future,” she said.

Quim Torra, the separatist leader of Catalonia, congratulated Ms. Sturgeon on Twitter for “magnificent results that demonstrate the democratic will for independence.”

But politicians in Madrid have repeatedly rejected separatist attempts to compare Scotland and Catalonia, noting that Spain has a constitution that guarantees that national sovereignty resides with the whole Spanish people.

Jeremy Corbyn says he will step aside — but not yet.

Speaking in his constituency of Islington in London, the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said that he would step down before the next general election, but would stay at the party’s helm for now, as it reflects on how to move forward from its dismal showing.

Mr. Corbyn is already under intense pressure to resign. His has been accused of poor leadership and of failing to handle accusations of anti-Semitism in the party ranks.

“I will not lead the party in any future general election campaign,” he said. “I will discuss with our party to ensure there is a process now of reflection on this result and on the policies that the party will take going forward and I will lead the party during that period to ensure that discussion takes place and we move on into the future.”

It was not clear how long Mr. Corbyn meant to stay on as party leader. The next election could be as long as five years away.

Some members of the Labour Party were quick to criticize him on Thursday night.

“The Labour Party has huge, huge questions to answer,” Ruth Smeeth, a former lawmaker, told Sky News. She immediately laid blame on Mr. Corbyn.

“Jeremy Corbyn should announce that he’s resigning as the leader of the Labour Party from his count today,” she said. “He should have gone many, many, many months ago.”

The Conservative victory buoyed the pound and stocks.

The pound jumped in value on Thursday night, buoyed by the receding prospect of a chaotic exit from the European Union without a divorce agreement. It began Friday near $1.35, up from about $1.32 a day earlier, but gave back most of that gain by late afternoon.

Equity markets were similarly lifted by the broad Conservative victory, with the FTSE 250 up more than 4 percent. The FTSE 100, which includes companies that rely more heavily on overseas earnings that would be dampened by a stronger pound, rose less sharply.

If the Conservatives manage to pass the withdrawal agreement bill as planned, the gains are likely to hold up through the end of the year, said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. Easing global trade tensions should support markets too, after the United States and China, which have been locked in a trade war, settled on a partial deal.

Prospects look more uncertain for the new year.

The current deadline gives the British government has just 11 months to negotiate a complex deal on its long-term trading relationship with the European Union. The two sides may struggle to meet the Dec. 31, 2020 deadline, once again raising the prospect of a damaging “no-deal” Brexit.

“If negotiators get stuck or bogged down or become more fractious, there’s a prospect of more volatility in the currency,” Mr. Dixon said. “The risk of an accidental no-deal Brexit might keep the market on their toes.”

In the longer term, bond yields could also start to edge up if the Scottish secessionist movement gains momentum now that the Scottish National Party has won most of the seats in Scotland.

“The one thing which certain investors, maybe bond market investors, will look at again is the integrity of the U.K. following the strong Scottish result for the S.N.P.,” Mr. Dixon added.

European leaders welcome decisive vote.

European leaders on Friday welcomed the clarity of the British election result, which came during the last day of their summit meeting in Brussels, in hopes that it would make way for resolution of the Brexit deal.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson now has the majority needed to ratify his withdrawal agreement with Brussels by the Jan. 31 deadline laid out by Europe.

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, congratulated Mr. Johnson on Twitter and said that he expected British Parliament to vote on the deal “as soon as possible.”

But that will only start the clock on new negotiations about Britain’s future trading and security relationship with the bloc. Mr. Johnson has said that will be quick and easy, but few experts agree. It can be quick, Brussels argues, only if Britain agrees to keep its regulations and tariffs the very close to those of the European Union.

European leaders remain unsure whether Mr. Johnson, with a resounding mandate, will stick to his campaign pledge to finish any trade negotiation with the European Union by the end of 2020, or choose next summer to seek a year’s delay for longer talks. So long as they are negotiating, Britain is in a “transition” period, and its relationship with the European Union is essentially unchanged, even if it will be legally out of the bloc.

Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg’s prime minister, said he hoped that Mr. Johnson would deliver on his campaign promises, as “people need to have clarity.”

“I hope that with yesterday’s results, they do,” he said. “The excuse that there is no clear majority in London doesn’t last anymore.”

But talks on the future relationship between Britain and the European Union are “not going to be simple,’’ he said.

In a swing district, there was little enthusiasm for any option.

The Conservatives’ resounding win surprised many residents of Kensington, an area of West London that swung from Labour control for the last two years back to its longstanding Tory roots.

Most of them seemed to accept Boris Johnson as the lesser evil in an election that presented them with limited options.

“I was expecting a hung Parliament,” Brian Thompson, 71, said while walking Florence, a black Giant Schnauzer, just off Kensington High Street on Friday morning. Though not impressed with Mr. Johnson, he called the prime minister “the best out of a poor bunch.”

The race for the Kensington seat was one of the closest in the country, as it was in 2017, but the share of the vote going to the two main parties fell sharply.

Sebastian Gibson, 43, said he could not stomach either of them, and knew there would be no happy result for him. Mr. Gibson, a property buyer who voted in 2016 to remain in the European Union, voted on Thursday for the Liberal Democrats, who are anti-Brexit.

“It’s sad for the country,” he said of the election.

Mollie Lotery, 73, said she did not particularly like Mr. Johnson, but saw no real alternative.

“I don’t like Labour because I’m Jewish and he’s an anti-Semite,” she said of Mr. Corbyn. “I am delighted at the result.”

“We were excited to watch the election results, but this is bad,” said Mina Aden, 29, a community worker who is originally from Ethiopia. “We were expecting Labour would still have Kensington. The Conservatives have never done anything for human rights.”

Businesses are relieved but still nervous.

Britain’s businesses welcomed the strong result for the Conservatives and the Brexit certainty it is expected to bring, at least for now. But they remain fearful of facing another Brexit deadline at the end of next year.

“The starting point must be rebuilding business confidence, and early reassurance on Brexit will be vital,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, the director general of the Confederation of British Industry, the country’s biggest business association.

Parts of the economy have been in limbo for much of the past three years, as negotiations with the European Union dragged on, and Parliament was unable to muster majority support for any one approach.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have worried the business community at different points. Labour had promised to nationalize some industries, while Boris Johnson had unnerved businesspeople with his determination to plow on with leaving the European Union, even without an agreement.

Now, companies want to know that they won’t be staring down another potentially disastrous deadline next year.

“Firms will continue to do all they can to prepare for Brexit, but will want to know they won’t face another no deal cliff-edge next year,” Ms. Fairbairn said.

And while the decisive victory paves the way for the next step in the Brexit process, one thing is clear: the postwar push toward greater global economic integration is at an end. The British election verdict is not the only sign.

In the United States, President Trump’s political base has rallied to his trade war against China. Popular movements across Europe have embraced nationalist and nativist causes that promise to halt globalization.

The traditional arbiter of trade disputes, the World Trade Organization, is listing toward irrelevance.

“The era of freewheeling markets and liberalism is ending,” said Meredith Crowley, an international trade expert at the University of Cambridge in England.

More women than ever will take seats in Parliament.

Britain will have a record number of female members of Parliament after Thursday’s vote, when women won at least 220 of the 650 seats, according to the Press Association.

At just over one-third of the House of Commons, women remain far short of parity with men, but they have made tremendous gains since the mid-1980s, when there were only 23 in Parliament. In the last general election, in 2017, women won 211 seats, a record at the time.

This year’s increase comes at a time when many people feared that women were being driven away from politics in a climate of heightened divisions. Online threats and abuse have risen sharply, and were disproportionately directed at female candidates.

Ahead of the campaign, more than a dozen prominent female lawmakers said they would not be standing for re-election citing that abuse as a reason for stepping away from politics. Many female candidates described threats and insults as a grim new reality on the campaign trail, a change that cast a harsh light on British politics.

An analysis of Twitter during the campaign, conducted by PoliMonitor, showed that all candidates received about four times as much abuse as in the 2017 election. The hostility aimed at women, the study said, was often based specifically on their sex or appearance.

Reporting was contributed by Richard Pérez-Peña, Megan Specia, Benjamin Mueller, Steven Erlanger, Ceylan Yeginsu, Amie Tsang, Stephen Castle, Elian Peltier, Peter S. Goodman, Raphael Minder, Iliana Magra and Alan Yuhas.

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2019-12-13 14:48:45Z
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U.K. Election Updates: In Victory, Johnson Promises Brexit and More - The New York Times

Here’s what you need to know:

• Conservatives celebrate their biggest win since Margaret Thatcher.
• Boris Johnson promises Brexit, and a life after it.
• Jeremy Corbyn says he will step aside — but not yet.
• The Conservative victory buoyed the pound and stocks.
• European leaders welcome decisive vote.

Image

Celebrations at a Conservative results party at a pub in central London.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Conservatives celebrate their biggest win since Margaret Thatcher.

With all but one district declared on Friday morning, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives had won 364 seats — 47 more than they won in the last election, in 2017.

The victory is the party’s biggest since Margaret Thatcher captured a third term in 1987 — “literally before many of you were born,” Mr. Johnson told supporters Friday morning. It gives him a comfortable majority in the 650-seat House of Commons.

“We did it,” he said. “We smashed it, didn’t we?”

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party had to reach even farther back to find a more extreme result. It won 203 seats, down 59 from the previous vote, in its worst showing since 1935. It had not suffered a similar drubbing since 1983, when it took 209 seats.

The Scottish National Party captured 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats, a gain of 13. The Liberal Democrats, who were hoping to ride an anti-Brexit stance back to prominence, won just 11 seats, one fewer than in 2017.

The Conservatives collected 43.6 percent of the popular vote, to 32.2 percent for Labour. That 11.3 percentage point margin was also the largest for the Tories since 1987 — a dramatic shift from 2017, when Labour lost the popular vote by just 2.4 percent.

U.K. Election Results Map: How Conservatives Won in a Landslide

Prime Minister Boris Johnson secured a large majority in Parliament. Here’s how he did it.

Boris Johnson promises Brexit, and a life after it.

Speaking to his constituents in Uxbridge early Friday morning, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the election results appeared to have given his government “a powerful new mandate to get Brexit done.”

Later in the morning, he told supporters, “we put an end to all those miserable threats of a second referendum” that might have reversed the results of the 2016 vote on Brexit.

“We will get Brexit done on time on the 31st of January — no ifs, no buts, no maybes,” he added.

He visited Buckingham Palace and met with Queen Elizabeth II, who formally asked him to form a new government.

He also promised that his government would spend more at home after a decade of austerity under Conservative governments — in particular on Britain’s National Health Service, known commonly as the N.H.S., a cherished program whose conditions have deteriorated.

Mr. Johnson said that he would seek “to unite this country and to take it forward and to focus on the priorities of the British people, and above all on the N.H.S.”

As hospital beds have overflowed, waiting times have gone up and vacancies have gone unfilled, many Britons have grown fearful that the health service could be privatized or otherwise overhauled — for instance by a trade deal with the United States that could drive up drug prices. (President Trump, tweeting congratulations on Friday morning, said Britain could “strike a massive new Trade Deal” after Brexit.)

Mr. Johnson insisted he would protect the health service, echoing his campaign promises to hire 50,000 more nurses and 6,000 doctors.

He promised again to hire more police officers, whose ranks have also thinned, and vowed “colossal new investments in infrastructure and science.”

“Let’s spread opportunity to every corner of the U.K.”

Jeremy Corbyn says he will step aside — but not yet.

Speaking in his constituency of Islington in London, the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said that he would step down before the next general election, but would stay at the party’s helm for now, as it reflects on how to move forward from its dismal showing.

Mr. Corbyn is already under intense pressure to resign. His has been accused of poor leadership and of failing to handle accusations of anti-Semitism in the party ranks.

“I will not lead the party in any future general election campaign,” he said. “I will discuss with our party to ensure there is a process now of reflection on this result and on the policies that the party will take going forward and I will lead the party during that period to ensure that discussion takes place and we move on into the future.”

It was not clear how long Mr. Corbyn meant to stay on as party leader. The next election could be as long as five years away.

Some members of the Labour Party were quick to criticize him on Thursday night.

“The Labour Party has huge, huge questions to answer,” Ruth Smeeth, a former lawmaker, told Sky News. She immediately laid blame on Mr. Corbyn.

“Jeremy Corbyn should announce that he’s resigning as the leader of the Labour Party from his count today,” she said. “He should have gone many, many, many months ago.”

The Conservative victory buoyed the pound and stocks.

The pound jumped in value on Thursday night and remained high on Friday, buoyed by the receding prospect of a chaotic exit from the European Union without a divorce agreement. At midmorning, it stood at about $1.34, up from about $1.32 a day earlier.

Equity markets were similarly been lifted by the broad Conservative victory, with the FTSE 250 up more than 4 percent. The FTSE 100, which includes companies that rely more heavily on overseas earnings that would be dampened by a stronger pound, rose less sharply.

If the Conservatives manage to pass the withdrawal agreement bill as planned, the gains are likely to hold up through the end of the year, said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. Easing global trade tensions should support markets too, after the United States and China, which have been locked in a trade war, settled on a partial deal.

Prospects look more uncertain for the new year.

The current deadline gives the British government has just 11 months to negotiate a complex deal on its long-term trading relationship with the European Union. The two sides may struggle to meet the Dec. 31, 2020 deadline, once again raising the prospect of a damaging “no-deal” Brexit.

“If negotiators get stuck or bogged down or become more fractious, there’s a prospect of more volatility in the currency,” Mr. Dixon said. “The risk of an accidental no-deal Brexit might keep the market on their toes.”

In the longer term, bond yields could also start to edge up if the Scottish secessionist movement gains momentum now that the Scottish National Party has won most of the seats in Scotland.

“The one thing which certain investors, maybe bond market investors, will look at again is the integrity of the U.K. following the strong Scottish result for the S.N.P.,” Mr. Dixon added.

European leaders welcome decisive vote.

European leaders on Friday welcomed the clarity of the British election result, which came during the last day of their summit meeting in Brussels, in hopes that it would make way for resolution of the Brexit deal.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson now has the majority needed to ratify his withdrawal agreement with Brussels by the Jan. 31 deadline laid out by Europe.

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, congratulated Mr. Johnson on Twitter and said that he expected British Parliament to vote on the deal “as soon as possible.”

But that will only start the clock on new negotiations about Britain’s future trading and security relationship with the bloc. Mr. Johnson has said that will be quick and easy, but few experts agree. It can be quick, Brussels argues, only if Britain agrees to keep its regulations and tariffs the very close to those of the European Union.

European leaders remain unsure whether Mr. Johnson, with a resounding mandate, will stick to his campaign pledge to finish any trade negotiation with the European Union by the end of 2020, or choose next summer to seek a year’s delay for longer talks. So long as they are negotiating, Britain is in a “transition” period, and its relationship with the European Union is essentially unchanged, even if it will be legally out of the bloc.

Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg’s prime minister, said he hoped that Mr. Johnson would deliver on his campaign promises, as “people need to have clarity.”

“I hope that with yesterday’s results, they do,” he said. “The excuse that there is no clear majority in London doesn’t last anymore.”

But talks on the future relationship between Britain and the European Union are “not going to be simple,’’ he said.

Big gains for the Scottish National Party raise questions of independence.

The Scottish National Party’s success — it won 48 of the 59 seats that it contested — will intensify the debate over independence for Scotland, which voted against Brexit and has largely rejected Britain’s major parties.

In a 2014 referendum, 45 percent of the voters in Scotland backed independence, and as Brexit approaches, the Scottish National Party, which backs independence, has insisted on a second referendum.

Mr. Johnson has said a national government under him would not hold a Scottish independence vote, but the Scottish government has suggested that it might go ahead with one. And on Friday morning, hours after the result of the vote was clear, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and the first minister of Scotland, said it planned to do just that.

That raises the prospect of the kind of disarray and animosity plaguing Spain, where the government of Catalonia held an independence referendum two years ago that the central government said was illegal.

“It is clear beyond any doubt that the kind of future desired by the majority in Scotland is very different to that chosen by much of the rest of the U.K.,” Ms. Sturgeon told reporters during a news briefing.

“Scotland has rejected Boris Johnson and the Tories and yet again we have said no to Brexit,” Ms. Sturgeon said. She said within one week, the Scottish government would publish their plan for holding a new referendum.

“I accept, regretfully, that he has a mandate for Brexit in England,” she said. “But he has no mandate whatsoever to take Scotland out of the European Union.”

Ms. Sturgeon was clear that the decision on Scottish independence should be left up to the Scottish people, not the prime minister, to decide.

“The people of Scotland have spoken, it is time now to decide our own future,” she said.

Voters in Corbyn stronghold woke up to disappointment.

On Friday morning, voters in and around the heavily pro-Labour north London constituency represented by Jeremy Corbyn, the party’s leader, woke up dismayed by its losses nationally.

“He failed to lead a proper campaign,” said Sarah Rose, a 43-year-old sociologist, said of Mr. Corbyn as she walked her dogs in Clissold Park. “He failed to tackle accusations of anti-Semitism, and he failed to have a sensible position on Brexit. It’s devastating.”

As expected, Mr. Corbyn won a landslide re-election in this Labour stronghold, but many people said they had doubts about continuing to support him. And as commuters headed to work in a cold drizzle, Labour sympathizers said the party needed to think long and hard about the outcome.

“Nobody here was thinking that Labour would have a majority, and it’s now clear that nobody wants a future with Corbyn,” said Tom Findlay, a 46-year-old music producer and psychotherapist.

He said he went to bed after the first exit polls on Thursday night confirmed a sweeping defeat for Labour. After he woke up early on Friday, his disappointment deepened when he heard that Mr. Corbyn would cling, for now, to his leadership position.

Mr. Corbyn told supporters he would not lead the party into another election, but that he would still oversee a “process of reflection.” He didn’t specify when he would step down.

“It’s typical of his arrogance: he is planning to stay a little bit longer while it’s so clear that he has been rejected,” Mr. Findlay said.

But he tried to see a silver lining. Many people in his part of London were devastated, he said, adding, “it’s going to be good for my therapy business, unfortunately.”

Businesses are relieved but still nervous.

Britain’s businesses welcomed the strong result for the Conservatives and the Brexit certainty it is expected to bring, at least for now. But they remain fearful of facing another Brexit deadline at the end of next year.

“The starting point must be rebuilding business confidence, and early reassurance on Brexit will be vital,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, the director general of the Confederation of British Industry, the country’s biggest business association.

Parts of the economy have been in limbo for much of the past three years, as negotiations with the European Union dragged on, and Parliament was unable to muster majority support for any one approach.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have worried the business community at different points. Labour had promised to nationalize some industries, while Boris Johnson had unnerved businesspeople with his determination to plow on with leaving the European Union, even without an agreement.

Now, companies want to know that they won’t be staring down another potentially disastrous deadline next year.

“Firms will continue to do all they can to prepare for Brexit, but will want to know they won’t face another no deal cliff-edge next year,” Ms. Fairbairn said.

And while the decisive victory paves the way for the next step in the Brexit process, one thing is clear: the postwar push toward greater global economic integration is at an end. The British election verdict is not the only sign.

In the United States, President Trump’s political base has rallied to his trade war against China. Popular movements across Europe have embraced nationalist and nativist causes that promise to halt globalization.

The traditional arbiter of trade disputes, the World Trade Organization, is listing toward irrelevance.

“The era of freewheeling markets and liberalism is ending,” said Meredith Crowley, an international trade expert at the University of Cambridge in England.

More women than ever will take seats in Parliament.

Britain will have a record number of female members of Parliament after Thursday’s vote, when women won at least 220 of the 650 seats, according to the Press Association.

At just over one-third of the House of Commons, women remain far short of parity with men, but they have made tremendous gains since the mid-1980s, when there were only 23 in Parliament. In the last general election, in 2017, women won 211 seats, a record at the time.

This year’s increase comes at a time when many people feared that women were being driven away from politics in a climate of heightened divisions. Online threats and abuse have risen sharply, and were disproportionately directed at female candidates.

Ahead of the campaign, more than a dozen prominent female lawmakers said they would not be standing for re-election citing that abuse as a reason for stepping away from politics. Many female candidates described threats and insults as a grim new reality on the campaign trail, a change that cast a harsh light on British politics.

An analysis of Twitter during the campaign, conducted by PoliMonitor, showed that all candidates received about four times as much abuse as in the 2017 election. The hostility aimed at women, the study said, was often based specifically on their sex or appearance.

Reporting was contributed by Richard Pérez-Peña, Megan Specia, Benjamin Mueller, Steven Erlanger, Ceylan Yeginsu, Amie Tsang, Stephen Castle, Elian Peltier, Peter S. Goodman and Alan Yuhas.

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2019-12-13 13:03:00Z
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