Growth of Reform UK the 'catalyst' for the Conservative's decline in election: Ipsos
Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, weighs in on the outcome of the U.K. parliamentary election.
What Labour's win means for UK markets
The arrival of a new Labour government hasn't moved markets all that much yet but analysts expect U.K. assets to become more attractive from here on out.
In a note Friday, analysts at Jefferies said, despite concerns raised by a strong showing for the right-wing Reform UK Party, the Labour Party's U.K. election win would help make the U.K. appear "relatively stable."
This, in combination with regulatory reform, "could raise the attractiveness of UK assets," Jefferies' analysts wrote in a research note.
Beata Manthey, European equity strategist at Citi, noted that history shows U.K. markets tend to trade flat on average six months after Labour wins, but "meaningfully higher one year later."
"On a relative basis, the UK market has tended to underperform 1-2 months after Labour wins, while tallying decent relative performance 12m post-election," Manthey said.
"The domestically oriented FTSE 250 has typically outperformed the FTSE 100 following Labour victories. Sterling and Gilts will be key to watch," she added.
"FTSE 250 over FTSE 100 is our preferred post-election trade."
- Ryan Browne
Analysts expect Labour government to boost housebuilders
"Persistently high inflation and the recent spike in lending rates will trigger a correction in the UK (Aa3 negative) housing market," Moody's Investor Service said in a report.
Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The U.K. housebuilding market is set to benefit from an incoming Labour government, several bank analysts wrote in research reports Friday.
In a note, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said that if Labour's election pledges turn into policy, this could mark the dawning of a "new age" for U.K. housebuilding.
"Over the last few years housebuilders' potential has been hamstrung, but over the next few this potential is likely to be unleashed," the bank's analysts wrote in their note.
"If the new Government's walk matches its talk we expect the sector to re-rate, and in the very short term we suspect that the talk alone will be enough to lift share prices," they added.
Expect to see the reinstatement of housing targets, refining of the greenbelt, a reform of planning, and the announcement of a "new generation of new towns," the RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote.
Meantime, Investec analysts said they expect housebuilders to "benefit from a more supportive planning backdrop as a significant part of the political hiatus around planning is removed."
"Even in the absence of any significant new policy support aimed at the first-time buyer and demand side, expected interest rate cuts should ease affordability constraints and boost sentiment."
"With negligible build cost inflation, a more favourable demand and supply backdrop should support a recovery in 2025," Investec's analysts added.
- Ryan Browne
UK election results 'not as dramatic' as opinion polls have been suggesting: Invesco
Paul Jackson from Invesco says the Labour Party will nevertheless have a "very sizable majority" and will be "able to get on with their program."
U.K. Labour Party win is ‘relatively positive,’ economist says
Benjamin Nabarro, chief U.K. economist at Citi, says the results of the U.K. general election were expected and offer the country "an opportunity for genuine policy stability after a period of obvious volatility."
House building sector to reap biggest benefit of election result: RBC
The house building sector stands to be a major beneficiary of the Labour Party's landslide victory in the Thursday general election, RBC's head of European capital goods research told CNBC's Silvia Amaro.
"It's front and center great for house builders, great for the wider building supply sector, bricks," Mark Fielding said Friday, pointing to two driving factors. "Two big factors: firstly a return to mandated targets for house building supporting 1.5 million new homes over the next five years, which would be a big positive, and secondly hopes on planning reforms, targeting to get that done."
That will in turn allow for faster planning processes and potentially for additional central government intervention to press ahead with more house approvals, according to Fielding, who noted that investor focus will otherwise now narrow on the Labour Party's ability to deliver on broader economic growth.
"U.K. bank stocks in the end are one of the biggest proxies for U.K. economic growth," he said.
— Ruxandra Iordache
What does a Labour win mean for interest rates?
With Labour now destined for power in the U.K., analysts are now discussing what this might mean for the Bank of England and interest rate expectations.
Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal from Deutsche Bank sent the below comments in a flash research note:
"A Labour majority won't do much to shift rate expectations – at least not at this juncture. If anything, we expect Labour to a) set out a cautious fiscal path, with some modest increases to 2025/26 departmental spending alongside key policy objectives (such as its Green Prosperity Plan), which will largely be offset by tax hikes. There are risks to this view, however. Further net fiscal easing at the Autumn Budget, than we've pencilled in, could lead to a more cautious and gradual rate cut path relative to our basecase – particularly if growth continues to converge back to potential."
-Matt Clinch
While much of Europe embraces hard-right parties, the UK has swung wildly to the left. Here’s why
Supporters wave the national flag of France during a campaign meeting of France's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party's President and lead European Parliament election candidate Jordan Bardella and President of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group Marine Le Pen, ahead of the upcoming European Union (EU) parliamentary elections, in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on May 24, 2024.
Francois Lo Presti | Afp | Getty Images
In the formerly Brexiting, euroskeptic U.K., the pendulum has just swung back to the center-left Labour Party, which is set to come to power after a mammoth election win, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule.
A different picture is playing out in much of western Europe — and in countries that disdained Brexit and the U.K.'s populist trend in recent years over the last decade or so. These states are now seeing their own electorates shift to the right.
While the U.K. and mainland Europe are heading in different directions politically, analysts say that the driving force behind changing patterns at the polls is fundamentally the same: voters are desperate for change.
European markets set to open higher
What a new Labour government means for investing in the UK
The U.K.'s Labour party is set to take over from the Conservatives after 14 years, at a time when economic uncertainty is still rife in the country.
The two main political parties ran on different economic and financial manifestos during the election campaign that would likely have different consequences for the investing environment.
Housebuilding, utilities and airspace stocks are some of the sectors that could be impacted by the new government, experts told CNBC. The wider property and housing market is also set to be affected, while the British pound and bond markets are unlikely to react to the change in government.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Congratulations begin to pour in for Labour's Starmer
Newly-declared Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaking at a convention in Athlone, central Ireland on March 24, 2024, after becoming de facto prime minister-in-waiting. Harris took over following the shock resignation of predecessor Leo Varadkar.
Paul Faith | Afp | Getty Images
International leaders have begun extending congratulations to incoming British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Close to home, his Irish counterpart, Taoiseach Simon Harris praised Starmer's "comprehensive victory" and stressed in a social media post that "the relationship between Ireland and the UK is deep and consequential. I look forward to it going from strength to strength."
Harris himself only assumed his post at Ireland's helm back in April.
Across the ocean, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted "lots of work ahead to build a more progressive, fair future for people on both sides of the Atlantic." Australia's PM Anthony Albanese also congratulated Starmer on a "resounding election victory," adding, "I look forward to working constructively with the incoming @UKLabour Government."
— Ruxandra Iordache
Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss loses seat
Liz Truss, who briefly served as British prime minister for 44 days in 2022, has narrowly lost her seat in parliament in the election to Labour.
Truss won 25.3% of votes in her constituency Norfolk South West, a significant drop from the 69% of votes she won in the last election. The Labour party candidate Terry Jermy beat Truss after securing 26.7% of the vote.
Truss had been a member of parliament since 2010.
— Sophie Kiderlin
British pound steady after election result confirmed
U.S. dollar bills are are pictured with British £1 coins and one Euro coins on September 27, 2022 in Bath, England. The UK pound sterling fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar as concerns grew at the prospect of a surge in the UK government borrowing to pay for the multiple tax cuts, announced in Conservative Party chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget. The fall in the value of sterling is also contributing to the UK's cost of living crisis, as inflation hits a near-30-year high. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Markets appeared to shrug off the end of a 14-year Conservative rule in Britain, after polls widely suggested the victory of the opposition Labour Party — suggesting a previous pricing in of the result.
The British pound made only light gains early morning on Friday, following departing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's concession speech.
The currency was up just 0.06% and 0.03% against the U.S. dollar and euro at 06:28 a.m. London time, respectively.
"The headline results from the election – a large Labour majority and the Conservatives in second place – are completely in line with expectations," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a Friday note, stressing that a Labour takeover generated a "very positive UK market (FX, bonds, stocks) reaction within hours" of new Chancellor Gordon Brown taking office back in 1997 and giving the Bank of England independence from political control over the nation's monetary policy.
"We don't think the market had built in a material positive risk premium in the pound for this outcome ahead of the election. As such, we'd expect sterling to [be] broadly unchanged following tonight's results," Deutsche Bank said, stressing that investors' focus will now shift toward the second round of the French vote on Sunday and on the next set of U.K. data as an indicator for whether the Bank of England can proceed with cutting interest rates in August.
— Ruxandra Iordache
Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps: Conservatives lose high-profile MPs
The Conservative party lost several of its most high-profile members of parliament in the election, with Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps among those failing to secure another term.
Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons, narrowly lost in Portsmouth North, coming second to Labour candidate Amanda Martin by just 780 votes.
Labour won 34.8% of votes, while the Conservatives secured 33%, which was a sharp decline from the last general election when the party won over 61%.
High-profile backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg also lost his seat in parliament after winning 30.2% of votes in North East Somerset and Hanham, while Labour's Dan Norris secured 40.6%. Rees-Mogg had been an MP since 2010 and played a key role during Brexit.
Elsewhere, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lost to Labour's Andrew Lewin in Welwyn Hatfield, with the two securing 33.2% and 41% respectively.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Starmer delivers victory speech: 'Change begins now'
Britain's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer delivers a speech during a victory rally at the Tate Modern in London early on July 5, 2024.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images
Labour leader Keir Starmer delivered a victory speech in London as the voting confirmed that he will be the next prime minister of the U.K.
"We did it," he said, addressing his Labour collegaues. "You campaigned for it, you fought for it - and now it has arrived."
"Change begins now ... The sunlight of hope, pale at first but getting stronger through the day. Shining once again on a country with an opportunity after 14 years to get its future back."
Labour has now crossed the 326 seat threshold, meaning it can govern alone in the U.K.'s lower house of parliament.
-Matt Clinch
Sunak: 'Sobering verdict tonight'
NORTHALLERTON, ENGLAND - JULY 5: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts as he waits for the count and declaration for the Richmond and Northallerton constituency during the UK general election on July 5, 2024 in Northallerton, England.
Wpa Pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday conceded defeat in the country's parliamentary election and said that the opposition Labour party won.
"The Labour Party has won this general election and I have called Sir Keir Starmer to congratulate him on his victory," Sunak said. He was speaking after having won his seat in parliament in Richmond and Northallerton.
Sunak spoke of a "difficult night" for the Conservative Party, and said he took responsibility for the results.
"The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight. There is much to learn and reflect on," he said.
— Sophie Kiderlin
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt holds seat
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt held onto his seat in parliament in the election, securing 42.6% of the vote in his constituency Godalming and Ash.
This was more than 10% less of the vote than the Conservative Party had secured in the last general election in this area. Hunt was previously a member of parliament in another area of the U.K., serving as MP for South West Surrey.
Hunt's seat was initially seen as a possible high-profile loss for the ruling Conservative Party.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Rishi Sunak holds seat, but concedes defeat to Labour
The Conservative's Rishi Sunak, who has been prime minister since October 2022, held onto his seat in Richmond and Northallerton in the U.K. parliamentary election.
Sunak won 47.5% of the votes, which was however an over 15% decline from the previous election. Labour's Tom Wilson garnered 22.4% of the vote, coming in second place.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps loses seat in parliament
U.K. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lost his seat in Welwyn Hatfield in Thursday's parliamentary election.
He was defeated by Labour's Andrew Lewin who got 41% of the votes versus Shapps' 33.2% share.
The Conservative MP, who received 16,078 votes, has sat in parliament since 2005.
— Lee Ying Shan
Reform UK's Nigel Farage wins a seat in parliament
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, during a news conference in London, UK, on Monday, June 3, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Populist politician Nigel Farage has won his first-ever seat in British parliament, after seven prior failed attempts.
The infamous Brexiteer won 46.2% of the vote in the Clacton constituency, with the Conservative Party coming in second with 27.9%.
The result comes amid a surprisingly strong election performance by Reform UK, which has a hardline stance on immigration and was born out of the Brexit Party. Exit polls indicate that the party could secure 13 parliamentary seats, having failed to win any in the 2019 election.
— Katrina Bishop
Labour leader Keir Starmer makes first speech: 'Change begins right here'
Britain's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer delivers a speech after winning his seat for Holborn and St Pancras in London early on July 5, 2024 as polls close in Britain's general election.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images
Labour leader Keir Starmer — the likely next prime minister of Britain — has made his first comments after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for his party.
"Tonight people here and around the country have spoken. And they're ready for change," he said.
"To end the politics of performance. A return to politics as public service. You have voted, it is now time for us to deliver."
He spoke after winning his seat — Holborn and St. Pancras in London — with 48.9% of the vote.
— Katrina Bishop
Pro-Palestinian firebrand George Galloway loses seat after just a few months
ROCHDALE, England - Feb 29: Workers Party of Britain candidate George Galloway speaks after being declared the winner in the Rochdale by-election on February 29, 2024.
Christopher Furlong | Getty Images News | Getty Images
After winning a chaotic by-election just months ago, George Galloway has lost the parliamentary seat of Rochdale.
Labour won with 32.9% of the vote, to Galloway's Workers Party of Britain's 29% share.
On Feb. 29, the controversial former Labour politician won a by-election, giving his party its first-ever Member of Parliament in Britain's House of Commons.
Galloway ran a campaign heavily focused on the plight of Palestinians, appealing to the Muslim voters that make up around 30% of the local electorate, many of whom voiced anger about the war in Gaza and the failure of the country's two main parties to push for an immediate ceasefire.
— Katrina Bishop and Elliot Smith
Reform UK wins first parliamentary seat
Reform UK won its first seat in Britain's 2024 general election, taking the East Midlands constituency of Ashfield from the Conservatives.
Reform's Lee Anderson secured 42.8% of the vote, followed by Labour's Rhea Keehn with 29%.
Exit polls indicate that the right-wing populist Reform party could gain 13 seats in this election — after winning none in the 2019 vote.
— Katrina Bishop
Labour's Rachel Reeves holds seat, set to become first female chancellor
Labour's Rachel Reeves, shadow finance minister, has held her seat with 49.3% of the vote.
It means she's set to become Britain's first-ever female chancellor (the equivalent of a U.S. Treasury secretary).
In a post on X following the result, she said: "It is an honour and a privilege to be returned as the Member of Parliament for Leeds West and Pudsey. You have put your trust in me. And I will not let you down."
— Katrina Bishop
What will Labour do in office?
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Deputy leader, Angela Rayner, attend an event to launch Labour's election pledges at The Backstage Centre on May 16, 2024 in Purfleet, United Kingdom.
Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images
After 14 years in opposition, the Labour Party is near-guaranteed to win a sizeable majority in the next parliament, according to exit polls.
Many of its senior figures, including party leader Keir Starmer, deputy leader Angela Rayner and finance chief Rachel Reeves, have never served in government.
In a manifesto released in June, the party said it would focus on "wealth creation" and "economic growth." Reeves, who has long been on a charm offensive with the British business community, has repeatedly stated she will prioritize fiscal discipline in all policymaking.
The party's flagship pledges include the creation of a new publicly owned energy company, a ban on awarding new North Sea oil and gas licenses, reducing patient waiting times in the strained National Health Service, and renationalizing most passenger rail services.
It also plans to raise money for public services by cracking down on tax loopholes for so-called nondomiciled individuals, removing tax breaks for independent schools, closing what has been described as a "tax loophole" for private equity investors, and raising taxes on the purchases of residential properties by non-U.K. residents. It said it would make additional green investments through a "time-limited windfall tax" on oil and gas firms.
The party said it would recognize a Palestinian state, calling statehood "the inalienable right of the Palestinian people."
— Jenni Reid
Nigel Farage: 'We're going to win seats, many, many seats'
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage said the gains his party has seen so far are "almost unbelievable."
Speaking after the earliest official results put Reform in second place, the populist Brexiteer noted this outcome was "way more" than anyone expected.
"What does it mean? It means we're going to win seats, many, many seats," he said in a video post on X.
"Mainstream media are in denial, just as much as our political parties. This is going to be 6 million votes plus. This vote is huge."
In terms of vote share, at the time of writing, Reform was in second place with 23.8% of the vote — a 14 percentage point increase on 2019. Exit polls put the party's seats at 13.
— Katrina Bishop
Rachel Reeves expected to become Britain's first-ever female finance minister
Labour's shadow chancellor of the exchequer Rachel Reeves.
Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Labour's shadow finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to become the U.K.'s first female chancellor, which she said would be a "huge privilege."
Speaking to Sky News, Reeves said she was under "no illusions about the scale of the challenge" she will face" if she does take up the role. Labour is forecast to win a landslide victory in the U.K.'s general election, and Reeves is also expected to hold her seat.
"The severity of the inheritance from the Conservatives is truly awful. But we will get to work, starting to rebuild our economy, returning stability to the economy, and improving our health service and our schools after 14 years of chaos, division and decline," she said.
Reeves has long been on a charm offensive with the British business community, repeatedly stating she will prioritize fiscal discipline in all policymaking.
— Katrina Bishop
'Shy Reformers coming out in droves' with Reform UK set to make major gains
Honorary President of the Reform UK party Nigel Farage gestures during a press conference in London, Britain, June 3, 2024.
Maja Smiejkowska | Reuters
Along with a huge vote for Labour and severe losses for the Conservatives, one of the major themes of the night so far has been the apparent gains by Reform UK.
It is forecast to win 13 seats and has significantly increased its vote share in early seats that have been declared.
The populist, right-wing party with a hardline stance on immigration was born out of the Brexit Party, which was founded by Nigel Farage and focused on calling for a "no-deal Brexit" between 2016 and 2021. After the completion of the Brexit process, it campaigned on issues such as opposition to Covid lockdowns.
The Brexit party did not win any seats in the 2019 general election.
Farage, who has served in the European Union parliament (on a pro-Brexit stance) but repeatedly failed to win a seat in the U.K. legislature, stepped down as party leader in March 2021. After previously stating he would not stand as an MP in 2024 in order to focus on supporting Donald Trump's U.S. presidential campaign, he reversed course in June and said he would both stand and resume his role as Reform UK leader.
Numerous analysts argued that the return of the well-known figure would boost the party at the expense of the Conservatives.
David Bull, co-deputy leader of Reform UK, told the BBC during overnight vote counting that pollsters had underestimated the party's support, as they had with the number of people who would back a Brexit vote.
"I think what you're seeing is actually the shy Reformers coming out in droves. We saw this with Brexit didn't we, the shy Brexiteers, so the pollsters were caught off-guard and once again they've been caught off guard," Bull said. "If that is true and we win 13 seats that is extraordinary."
A "shy" voter refers to someone who does not reveal in polls which way they will eventually vote.
— Jenni Reid
How accurate are exit polls?
Exit polls have a strong track record of getting it right in Britain.
Investec notes they have correctly called the largest party (Conservatives) in the last four elections, with a mean absolute error of the overall majority of just 11.
"Exit polls ask the way that voters have actually voted in contrast with polls published during the campaign, which model voting intentions," Investec U.K. chief economist Philip Shaw wrote late Thursday.
"One can expect the actual outcome to be reasonably close to the [exit poll] figures ... With tactical voting perhaps more widespread than in previous elections however, perhaps one should not be too confident about this."
Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, issued a note of caution, however, highlighting that in 1974, exit polls overestimated Labour's seats by 61. In recent history — over the last 30 years — the largest exit poll mistake came in 2019, when the Conservative's seats were underestimated by 15, Wood added.
Timetable
After the first few results are announced before midnight London time, Investec said it expects a "particularly busy period of declarations between 03.00 and 04.00 a.m."
"A full set of results is expected by 07.00 tomorrow morning, although this may be delayed by recounts in various constituencies," Shaw wrote. "One further complication could arise if postal votes having been sent out late in certain areas were to lead to challenges by candidates who lost by a narrow margin."
He added that currency markets have hardly reacted, given the forecasted result was widely expected. "What will matter more to markets, ultimately, is what a Labour government chooses to do if and when it takes office."
— Katrina Bishop
Who is Labour’s Keir Starmer?
Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer (C) gestures as he delivers a stump speech to supporters during a campaign visit to Hucknall Town Football Club on July 2, 2024 in Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Christopher Furlong | Getty Images
Keir Starmer is on course to be the U.K.'s new prime minister, with exit polls suggesting his left-of-center party could have a majority of around 170 seats.
He will take the post from Rishi Sunak, who was elected between general elections by members of his Conservative Party in 2022.
Starmer, 61, has had a rapid political ascent after entering U.K. parliament less than a decade ago. But many Brits still know little about the man who has positioned himself as the country's candidate for change.
Starmer was born in 1962 in London, England, to a father who worked as a toolmaker and a mother who worked as a nurse. A barrister (or trial lawyer), he served as a human rights adviser during former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair's landmark Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement, and in 2008 became the head of the U.K.'s Crown Prosecution Service.
Starmer was knighted in 2014 for his services to criminal justice and was elected to Parliament the following year, serving as shadow immigration minister and Brexit minister for the opposition.
— Karen Gilchrist
First seat of the election called for Labour
The first seat of the 2024 general election has been called for Labour in the constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South.
Bridget Phillipson, Labour's education chief, was declared the first member of the U.K.'s new parliament. She said that if exit polls were correct, "then after 14 years, the British people have chosen change."
Labour held the Houghton and Sunderland South seat, but the candidate for the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK party made a significant gain on its 2019 result (when it was called the Brexit Party), leapfrogging the Conservatives into second place.
Several constituencies in northern England race to be the first to declare in a general election.
In the 2017 and 2019 votes, Newcastle took that honor with announcements in less than 90 minutes of polls closing. Between 1992 and 2015, Sunderland was the first to declare its seat.
— Jenni Reid
Major damage done to Conservatives by smaller parties, polling expert says
An exit poll predicting that Reform UK led by Nigel Farage will get 13 seats in Britain's general election is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4, 2024.
Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images
The scale of the projected Conservative loss stems from smaller parties' gains as well as Labour's challenge, polling expert John Curtice told the BBC.
The seat forecast shows how the national share of the vote has "moved decisively against the Conservatives," he said.
"Support for the Conservatives is falling much more heavily in places where they are trying to defend a seat than it is in places that Labour already hold," he said.
"It's not because Labour are doing spectacularly better in Conservative-held seats, it's because Reform are. Much of the damage done to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary."
Reform UK is the populist right-wing party led by Nigel Farage.
He also noted that although there has not been a massive rise in overall Liberal Democrat support, the party is doing better in seats where it was challenging the Conservatives, he continued, cautioning that the patterns shown by the polls may not be exactly accurate.
"Although it looks like an election in which Labour win a landslide, it does not follow that this necessarily means Labour have got a landslide in terms of votes," he told the BBC.
— Jenni Reid
Scotland's SNP set to suffer huge loss of seats
The Scottish National Party is set to secure only 10 seat in British parliament, exit polls suggest — down from 48 seats in 2019.
It comes after a period of turbulence for the pro-Scottish independence party.
Former leader Humza Yousaf Yousaf resigned in April after serving as Scotland's first minister for a little over a year, taking over from longstanding leader Nicola Sturgeon, who announced her surprise resignation in February 2023. Sturgeon was being investigated by police as part of a probe into party finances, and her husband Peter Murrell was charged with embezzlement earlier this year.
John Swinney took over the party leadership earlier this year.
— Katrina Bishop
Why this could be a historic election result
Members of the media look at the exit polls on TV at the Richmond and Northallerton count centre in Northallerton, north of England, on July 4, 2024 as polls close in Britain's general election.
Darren Staples | Afp | Getty Images
The result of the 2024 U.K. general election is still in the realm of projection — but is being widely described as historic.
That's in part because of the likely electoral swing for the Labour Party. To win even a narrow majority, Labour needed a bigger gain in parliamentary seats than that achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Its projected 170 majority means it is on course to have seen an unprecedented upswing.
Exit polls put it on 410 seats, up from 202 in the most recent general election in 2019.
However, due to the rise of smaller parties, Labour may have achieved a smaller share of the vote than in 2017 under leader Jeremy Corbyn, when the party failed to win but narrowly prevented a Conservative majority.
Exit polls give the ruling Conservative Party just 131 seats, a slump from 365 in the last election and its lowest number in post-war history.
— Jenni Reid
'This is a massacre'
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party leader Ruth Davidson speaks during a general election campaign visit to a removals depot in Edinburgh, Scotland, on June 5, 2017. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to vote in a general election only days after another terrorist attack on the nation's capital.
BEN STANSALL | AFP | Getty Images
The former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, told Sky News the result was a "massacre" for her party. But she said that exit polls suggested it wasn't as bad as some had been expecting in the days leading up to the vote.
"There's no dressing this up, this has been .. this is a massacre — it is a massacre," she said.
-Matt Clinch
Vote counting begins
Ballot papers are tipped out onto a table by counting staff at the counting centre at Emirates Arena as the UK general election count begins on July 4, 2024 in Glasgow, Scotland.
Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The manual counting of millions of ballots has begun across the U.K.'s 650 constituencies, with the first results to be declared imminently and announcements continuing through the night until Friday morning.
— Jenni Reid
Ruling Conservatives set to face a hammering: Exit poll
An exit poll predicting that the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer will win 410 seats in Britain's general election is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4, 2024. Labour is set for landslide win in UK election, exit polls showed.
Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images
The U.K.'s incumbent Conservative Party had been expected to lose power in Thursday's election, but initial exit polls showed the staggering extent of the swing.
A poll conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News indicates the 650 seats of the House of Commons will be split approximately as:
Labour: 410
Conservatives: 131
Liberal Democrats: 61
Reform: 13
Scottish National Party: 10
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
Other: 19
In the 2019 election, the Conservatives won 365 seats to Labour's 202. The Lib Dems took 11 while Scotland's SNP won 48.
— Jenni Reid
Exit poll points to landslide Labour victory
Exit polls released as voting closed in the election put Labour on course for a landslide victory, with the incumbent Conservatives facing a bruising defeat.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News, points to Labour winning 410 seats out of 650, with the Conservatives on 131. Smaller parties look set for major gains, with the Liberal Democrats on 61 and Nigel Farage's Reform UK on 13.
— Jenni Reid
First seat of the election called for Labour
The first seat of the 2024 general election has been called for Labour in the constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South.
Bridget Phillipson, Labour's education chief, was declared the first member of the U.K.'s new parliament. She said that if exit polls were correct, "then after 14 years, the British people have chosen change."
Labour held the Houghton and Sunderland South seat, but the candidate for the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK party made a significant gain on its 2019 result (when it was called the Brexit Party), leapfrogging the Conservatives into second place.
Several constituencies in northern England race to be the first to declare in a general election.
In the 2017 and 2019 votes, Newcastle took that honor with announcements in less than 90 minutes of polls closing. Between 1992 and 2015, Sunderland was the first to declare its seat.
— Jenni Reid
Big-name politicians hope to avoid 'Portillo moment'
British former politician Michael Portillo, speaking at the Conservative Party conference in 2000. The parliamentarian lost his seat in the 1997 U.K. general election in a shock defeat that became known as a "Portillo moment," indicating a swing in support to the opposing side.
Jeff Overs | Bbc News & Current Affairs | Getty Images
While an overall Labour victory has been forecast by pollsters, many seats are considered too close to call — including those of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt.
There are around 120 of 650 seats where the margin of victory is expected to be lower than 5 percentage points, according to a projection model from the Financial Times.
Well-known politicians will be seeking to avoid what in British political lingo has become known as a "Portillo moment." That is a reference to former Conservative politician Michael Portillo, who lost his seat in the 1997 general election to Stephen Twigg, his relatively unknown Labour opponent. Portillo, meanwhile, was a big name who had served as defense minister and was considered a potential future party leader.
The shock result was seen as emblematic of the swing in Labour's favor, as the party won a landslide under Tony Blair against incumbent Prime Minister John Major.
— Jenni Reid
UK general election result in 2019
Under former Conservative leader Boris Johnson, the party won a majority of 365 seats in the last general election in 2019, to Labour's 202 seats.
Turnout was 67.3%.
By the time parliament was dissolved on May 30 this year in order for the July 4 election campaign to begin, a range of political developments had left that split at 344 Conservative lawmakers to 205 for Labour.
— Jenni Reid
UK elects new parliament for first time in nearly five years
A woman walks past Roath Park polling station with her dog on July 4, 2024 in Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Matthew Horwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Millions of British citizens across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday voted for their local representative in the House of Commons, the U.K.'s lower branch of parliament.
In typical British fashion, the weather was changeable and unseasonably cool during the nation's first July general election since 1945.
The U.K. elects 650 Members of Parliament, known as MPs. According to longstanding convention, the prime minister is an MP appointed by the monarch who can "command the confidence" of the Commons — in practice, that is the leader of the party with the most seats.
Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer walks with his wife Victoria Starmer, as they arrive at a polling station to place their votes in the 2024 General Election.
Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Prospective MPs stand for election in one of the U.K.'s 650 constituencies. In a system known as "first past the post," voters may only choose a single candidate from their local list, and the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes an MP.
Unlike in other voting systems, there are no second rounds or ranking of first- and second-choice candidates, meaning it can be difficult for smaller parties to translate an increased share of the popular vote into parliamentary seats.
Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak arrives with his wife Akshata Murty to cast their votes at a polling station in Kirby Sigston, Northallerton, north of England.
Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images
Around 40,000 polling stations were open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Thursday, and one of the two main parties — Labour or the Conservatives — is expected to concede victory to the other sometime on Friday morning.
— Jenni Reid
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNuYmMuY29tLzIwMjQvMDcvMDQvdWstZWxlY3Rpb24tMjAyNC1yZXN1bHQta2Vpci1zdGFybWVycy1sYWJvdXItdG8tYmVhdC1jb25zZXJ2YXRpdmVzLmh0bWzSAWtodHRwczovL3d3dy5jbmJjLmNvbS9hbXAvMjAyNC8wNy8wNC91ay1lbGVjdGlvbi0yMDI0LXJlc3VsdC1rZWlyLXN0YXJtZXJzLWxhYm91ci10by1iZWF0LWNvbnNlcnZhdGl2ZXMuaHRtbA?oc=5
2024-07-05 06:58:00Z
CBMiZ2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNuYmMuY29tLzIwMjQvMDcvMDQvdWstZWxlY3Rpb24tMjAyNC1yZXN1bHQta2Vpci1zdGFybWVycy1sYWJvdXItdG8tYmVhdC1jb25zZXJ2YXRpdmVzLmh0bWzSAWtodHRwczovL3d3dy5jbmJjLmNvbS9hbXAvMjAyNC8wNy8wNC91ay1lbGVjdGlvbi0yMDI0LXJlc3VsdC1rZWlyLXN0YXJtZXJzLWxhYm91ci10by1iZWF0LWNvbnNlcnZhdGl2ZXMuaHRtbA
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar