Rishi Sunak has suggested voters could deliver a hung parliament by only 130,000 people switching to the Tories, as he urged the public to deny Labour a majority.
On Tuesday, the Prime Minister will declare that the election “is not a foregone conclusion” if 130,000 people were to switch their votes, because it would “deny Starmer that supermajority”.
The figures are based on analysis of a YouGov poll that suggested Labour would lose the entirety of its projected majority if that many voters turned away from the party.
It is the latest in a series of warnings from Mr Sunak not to hand Sir Keir Starmer a “blank cheque” on polling day.
On Tuesday, Mr Sunak will say: “The outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion. If just 130,000 people switch their vote and lend us their support, we can deny Starmer that supermajority.
“Just think about that: you have the power to use your vote to prevent an unchecked Labour government.”
The figure is based on analysis from The Times newspaper last month of a YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll, which uses survey results to predict results in individual seats.
The pollster predicted that Labour would win 425 seats, leaving the Conservatives trailing on 108.
But The Times found that Labour would lose its 200-strong majority entirely if only 132,000 voters in the most tightly fought constituencies voted for the second-place party instead.
Mr Sunak will add: “A huge number of seats in this election will be decided by only hundreds of votes.
“So, every vote we move will have an impact and make it more likely that your Conservative candidate is returned to Parliament so that they can be your voice, represent your values and stand up for you.”
Tory figures have urged voters not to turn their backs on the party in favour of Reform UK, which has surged in popularity since Nigel Farage assumed the role of leader.
On Monday, Mr Sunak insisted again that a vote for Reform would help to put Sir Keir into No 10.
The Conservatives have failed to significantly move the dial over the course of the election campaign, with polls still showing a strong double-digit lead for Labour.
Some polls have suggested that the Conservatives are headed for a wipeout, with a MRP for The Telegraph last month predicting that about three-quarters of the Cabinet could lose their seats.
It comes as allies of a potential Tory leadership contender have said that any post-election leadership battle must not be dragged out, otherwise there will be no opposition to Sir Keir.
The sources, allies of those on the Right of the party, hit back at suggestions that any contest should be delayed for months – perhaps as late as December – to allow the party to regroup.
They say such a move would “allow Starmer to have no opposition until January”.
There was also a backlash against any move to deny the membership a vote in the leadership election, with a source close to one candidate describing it as “insane”.
A source said: “The biggest winner would be Nigel Farage’s Reform party.”
Meanwhile, Mr Sunak suggested he would stay on as leader if the Conservatives were to lose on Thursday.
He told the BBC: “I love this party dearly and of course I’ll always put myself at the service of it and the service of my country.”
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2024-07-01 21:30:00Z
CBMiamh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRlbGVncmFwaC5jby51ay9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI0LzA3LzAxL2RlbGl2ZXItaHVuZy1wYXJsaWFtZW50LWRlbnktbGFib3VyLW1ham9yaXR5LXN1bmFrLXBsZWFkcy_SAQA
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