Brexit: Theresa May ponders fourth bid to pass deal - BBC News

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Theresa May and her cabinet are looking for ways to bring her EU withdrawal agreement back to the Commons for a fourth attempt at winning MPs' backing.

The PM said the UK would need "an alternative way forward" after her plan was defeated by 58 votes on Friday.

MPs from all parties will test support for other options during a second round of "indicative votes" on Monday.

But government sources have not ruled out a run-off between whichever proves most popular and the PM's Brexit plan.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has called on Mrs May to change her deal or resign immediately, while Northern Ireland's DUP - which has propped up Mrs May's minority government - also continues to oppose the deal.

The government has so far failed to win over 34 Conservative rebels, including both Remainers and Tory Brexiteers who say the deal still leaves the UK too closely aligned to Europe.

However, a No 10 source indicated the prime minister would continue to seek support in the Commons.

They insisted efforts were "going in the right direction", given the margin of defeat was down from 149 a fortnight ago.

Leave voters registered their anger at the latest rejection, on the day the UK was originally scheduled to leave the EU.

Thousands gathered outside Parliament to protest against the delay, bringing traffic to a standstill.

And the Conservative former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, who has campaigned for a further referendum on the deal, lost a vote of no-confidence in his Beaconsfield constituency.

There is every chance that the prime minister will again - with routes outside the normal boundaries - try to make a version of her Brexit deal the end result of all of this.

Despite a third defeat, despite the embarrassment of repeated losses, don't imagine that she is ready to say a permanent farewell to the compromise deal she brokered with the EU or, straightaway, to her time in office.

There is still a belief in the heart of government that there could be a way round, perhaps to include the prime minister's agreed treaty as one of the options that is subject to a series of votes that will be put in front of the Commons next week.

The aspiration, strange as it sounds, for some time now has been to prove to MPs that the deal is the least worst of all the options...

• Read Laura's thoughts in full

Mrs May has until 12 April to seek a longer extension to the negotiation process to avoid the UK leaving without a deal, which most MPs believe could harm business and create disruption at ports.

However, she said any further delay to Brexit was "almost certain" to involve staging elections to the European Parliament in May.

Downing Street later said this was not an "inevitability" but Justice Minister Rory Stewart told BBC Newsnight Friday's vote had been "the last chance" to avoid that.

He said it would take a "miracle" - and the support of up to 150 Conservatives - on Monday for a majority of MPs to back a Brexit option that supported staying in the customs union.

This allows businesses to move goods around the bloc without checks or charges but continued membership would bar the UK from striking independent trade deals.

And BBC political correspondent Chris Mason said: "Leaving it was a Conservative manifesto commitment, and an about-turn on that could tear apart the party from the cabinet down."

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What happens next?

• Monday, 1 April: MPs hold another set of votes on various Brexit options to see if they can agree on a way forward
• Wednesday, 3 April: Potentially another round of so-called "indicative votes"
• Wednesday, 10 April: Emergency summit of EU leaders to consider any UK request for further extension
• Friday, 12 April: Brexit day, if UK does not seek/EU does not grant further delay
• 23-26 May: European Parliamentary elections

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The withdrawal agreement is the part of the Brexit deal Mrs May struck with Brussels that sets out how much money the UK must pay to the EU as a settlement, details of the transition period, and the Irish backstop arrangements.

Downing Street said Mrs May would continue to talk to the Democratic Unionist Party about more reassurances over the backstop - the "insurance policy" designed to prevent physical infrastructure at the Irish border.

The DUP says that by temporarily subjecting Northern Ireland to different regulations to the rest of the UK, the backstop would risk a permanent split.

Its Westminster leader Nigel Dodds told Newsnight: "I would stay in the European Union and remain, rather than risk Northern Ireland's position. That's how strongly I feel."

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And Conservative Mid-Norfolk MP George Freeman, who backed Mrs May's deal, told the programme a cross-party solution was needed.

"The prime minister has run out of the road. We need to be setting up a Brexit war cabinet," he said.

After the result of the latest vote was announced, Mr Corbyn said: "The House has been clear, this deal now has to change.

"If the prime minister can't accept that then she must go, not at an indeterminate date in the future but now. So that we can decide the future of this country through a general election."

Will European leaders accept a longer delay to Brexit?

Despite all the drama, the money and time spent by EU leaders on Brexit (summits, dedicated governmental departments, no-deal planning) and all the hard, hard graft put in by the EU and UK negotiating teams, Europe's leaders are asking themselves what there is to show for it all.

Ongoing Brexit divisions in Parliament, in government and in Theresa May's cabinet were on screaming technicolour display again last week.

EU leaders used to use the threat of a no-deal Brexit as a negotiating tactic (as did the UK). They now believe it to be a very real prospect.

That has led to a number of countries - notably France - questioning the logic of delaying Brexit for much longer.

They wonder if the UK will ever unite around a Brexit Way Forward - be it a softer Brexit, no deal or no Brexit.

Would a Brexit extension, allowing for a general election or a second referendum, really settle the issue, they ask?

Read Katya's blog in full

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47756122

2019-03-30 04:26:36Z
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Hundreds of child sex dolls seized at Britain’s borders in crackdown - New York Post

More than a dozen child sex dolls are being seized at Britain’s borders every month, with prosecutors using a Victorian law to crack down on the sick trade.

Customs officials have reported stopping 230 items suspected to be child sex dolls from entering the country in the past 18 months, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said.

While there is no specific offense of possessing the dolls, prosecutors are being told to go after suspects under existing laws, such as the Customs Consolidation Act of 1876, which bans the import of indecent or obscene articles.

The CPS has identified the law prohibiting the import of illegal materials, along with the Customs and Excise Acts of 1979, as part of a new effort to close a legal loophole under which there is no specific offense for possessing the dolls.

Now anyone caught trying to bring in the dolls, which are manufactured to allow adults to engage in sex acts with them, could be jailed for up to seven years.

This was how Brian Leach, 62, from Maidstone in Kent, ended up being handed a 28-week jail sentence last month.

He was arrested after ordering a 3-foot-tall doll from China, which was worth $650, before admitting the importation offense as well as making indecent images of a child.

Despite his claims that the doll was to be a companion, police said the package included accessories “which clearly indicated it to be an object for sexual gratification.”

The National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children has welcomed the new measures and hoped it would “clamp down” on distributors and act as a “deterrent” to potential buyers.

“There is no ambiguity that they are designed to depict children and their purpose is to stimulate sex,” a spokesperson said.

“We have serious worries that adults who use sex dolls could become desensitized and their behavior would become normal to them so that they go on to harm children.”

Investigations have also started with a suspect being caught with a doll, before being charged with separate offenses.

On Wednesday, Donald Styles, 61, from Newton Abbot in Devon, was jailed for 18 months for possession and making indecent photographs.

Styles claimed he’d purchased the 3-foot doll from China for an art project after it was intercepted at customs.

Police raided his home and found 149 films and images of child abuse, including rape.

A judge said his story was “ridiculous” and jailed him for 18 months.

“There is no place in society for these dolls. Importing them is a crucial flag to potential offending against children,” National Crime Agency specialist operations manager Hazel Stewart said.

She added that 20 of 26 recent offenders convicted over child sex dolls were also found with indecent images of children.

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2019-03-29 17:47:00Z
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Theresa May’s Brexit Deal Is Rejected by U.K. Parliament - The New York Times

• With Britain in political crisis and a new deadline to leave the European Union two weeks away, Parliament on Friday rejected, by a vote of 334 to 286, Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan for a third time.

• Lawmakers voted down the 585-page withdrawal agreement, which details Britain’s relationship to the European Union through the end of 2020.

• The vote means that Britain is moving closer to a withdrawal on April 12 without an agreement — the “no-deal” scenario that many economists and officials have warned would do serious economic damage. The only alternative may be a long delay, a move opposed by pro-Brexit lawmakers.

• In a bid to win over hard-line Brexit supporters, Mrs. May promised Conservative lawmakers this week that she would step down as prime minister if the deal were approved. She had hoped that enough lawmakers would reverse course, despite their concerns, rather than risk crashing out without a deal.

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Prime Minister Theresa May has offered to step aside if Parliament approves her withdrawal plan.CreditJessica Taylor/UK Parliament, via Reuters

May is rejected for a third time, adding to political turmoil

British lawmakers on Friday rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for withdrawing from the European Union for the third time, leaving her policy in ruins and casting the nation’s politics into further confusion with the scheduled departure date looming two weeks away.

The vote on Friday might have been Mrs. May’s last chance to succeed on the issue that has dominated and defined her time in office, and the result left open an array of possibilities, including renewed demands for her resignation, early parliamentary elections and a second referendum.

The defeat, while narrower than in the previous two votes, appears to leave the increasingly weakened prime minister with two unpalatable options in the short run:

Britain can leave the bloc on April 12 without an agreement in place, a chaotic and potentially economically damaging withdrawal that threatens to leave the country with a shortage of food and medicine; or Mrs. May can ask European leaders — who have ruled out a short delay if her plan failed — for what would almost certainly be a long postponement.

“The implications of the house’s decision are grave,” she said after the vote, warning that it was not guaranteed that the bloc would give Britain more time.

The European Commission posted on Twitter, “ ‘No-deal’ scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario.”

Hoping to win over Brexit hard-liners in her Conservative Party, Mrs. May promised lawmakers this week that she would step down if her plan were approved, giving the party a chance to choose a leader more to their liking to oversee the next round of negotiations. That got her some votes, but not enough.

Mrs. May has seen party discipline and her own authority shredded by successive parliamentary defeats, cabinet resignations and party defections over Brexit, and the vote on Friday left her even more battered — but apparently still in office.

In January, Parliament rejected her plan, 432 to 202 — a historic margin of defeat for a prime minister’s bill. A second vote on March 12 was another defeat, 391 to 242.

“If you want to deliver Brexit, this is the moment,” Mrs. May told Parliament before the vote.

But Parliament rebuffed her once again.

Video

The future of the Irish border has been a contentious issue during Britain’s Brexit negotiations. We went to Northern Ireland, where residents worry that the free flow of goods and people could end once the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.

What exactly were lawmakers voting on?

Parliament has twice rejected Mrs. May’s proposal, but this time there was a twist: Lawmakers were only voting on the withdrawal agreement, the legally binding part of the deal.

They set aside a decision on the nonbinding “political declaration,” a statement of what both sides want in Britain’s long-term relationship with the European Union. The two parts were separated to get around a procedural rule that had complicated Mrs. May’s efforts at a third attempt to get the deal through.

Mrs. May told Parliament that if lawmakers approved the withdrawal agreement, they would still have an opportunity to vote for a larger bill that would include the agreement — an assessment some Labour members disputed.

What Is Brexit? A Simple Guide to Why It Matters and What Happens Next

The basics of Brexit, the troubled plan for Britain to quit the European Union.

The withdrawal agreement sets the terms of a transition period after Britain leaves the bloc, while long-term arrangements are negotiated. It would last through the end of 2020, but could be extended for two years.

[Interested in our Brexit coverage? Join the conversation on April 1, and hear how our reporters in London are tracking these updates.]

It lays out in detail the nation’s trade relationship with the bloc, keeping Britain tied, at least temporarily, to many European Union tariff, product and immigration rules, protecting trade ties and the rights of the bloc’s citizens who are already living in Britain.

This agreement also includes language dealing with the border between Ireland, a European Union member country, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom — a confounding and divisive issue that has proved to be the biggest sticking point in Parliament.

At the moment, goods and people flow freely between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Under the withdrawal agreement, that arrangement would continue even if the two sides have not reached a long-term pact by the end of 2020, under a provision known as the backstop.

The backstop would keep Britain, and particularly Northern Ireland, tied to many European Union rules, to avoid building physical barriers on the border. That is anathema to many Brexit supporters, who fear that it could leave Britain permanently beholden to the bloc.

Prominent Brexit supporters vowed to back May’s deal

There was little expectation that Mrs. May’s plan would be approved, but in the hours before the vote a steady stream of lawmakers did promise to switch their votes and support her.

Dominic Raab, a former Brexit secretary and one of the most hard-line Conservative supporters of withdrawal, said on Friday that he would drop his opposition.

He was switching, he said, because there was “a significant risk of losing Brexit altogether,” referring to concerns that Britain might be forced to seek a longer extension, which would give opponents of Brexit more time to muster support to fight withdrawal.

Writing on Twitter, Boris Johnson, a former foreign secretary who has been an vocal critic of Mrs. May’s proposal, said that he would support it, although it was “very painful to vote for this deal.”

Iain Duncan Smith, a staunch Brexit supporter and a former leader of the Conservative Party, said that he would vote for the deal. Ross Thomson, who voted against it twice, also said that he would change his vote.

But Mrs. May’s prospects were largely dependent on how many opposition lawmakers she could win over, and she fell far short of that threshold.

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Brexit supporters outside Parliament on Friday.CreditMatt Dunham/Associated Press

Outside Parliament, little love for the E.U.

“Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you!”

With those words, pro-Brexit activists congregated outside Parliament on Friday morning, heaping anger on lawmakers who they said were thwarting the results of the 2016 referendum.

The crowd in the morning was sparse but grew as the day went on, with people drinking tea from thermoses, waving Union Jack flags and holding placards denouncing, among other things, “anti-British globalists.”

The protesters, most of them men, cut a striking contrast with the hundreds of thousands who turned out for an anti-Brexit march in London last weekend.

“We should be leaving now,” Paul Ellis, the legal officer of the For Britain Movement, said as he was walking toward Parliament Square. “As of today, Parliament no longer has the permission of the people to surrender power to the European Union.”

If Parliament votes to delay or stop Brexit, he said before Parliament acted on Friday, “It means that Britain is no longer a democracy.”

After arriving at Parliament Square, he unfurled his group’s banner in front of a statue of Winston Churchill.

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Thousands of protesters gathered in London last week to demand a public vote on the government’s final Brexit deal.CreditDan Kitwood/Getty Images

Opposition complains that the government has made things less clear

What is a blindfold Brexit?

That is the name the opposition Labour Party has given to Mrs. May’s ploy of splitting her deal in two: a withdrawal agreement that gets Britain out of the European Union’s door, and a political declaration that says where it is supposed to go from there.

For tactical reasons, the Conservative government wanted Parliament to vote on them separately. But Labour leaders said that asking lawmakers to vote on the first, without the road map provided by the second, was like putting a blindfold on Parliament.

Making matters worse for Labour, Mrs. May promised to resign if her deal passed, leaving future negotiations in a new Conservative leader’s hands. That could very well be a hard-line Brexiteer, and Labour fears that such a leader would cut trading ties with Europe at the risk of hurting Britain’s economy.

“It could be a Boris Johnson Brexit, a Jacob Rees-Mogg Brexit, or a Michael Gove Brexit,” said Keir Starmer, a senior Labour lawmaker, referring to various pro-Brexit Conservatives.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, compared that to playing “roulette with this country’s future.”

Some Labour members proposed an amendment to Mrs. May’s deal that would have given Parliament some say in shaping the political declaration — a way of taking off the figurative blindfold. But the speaker of the House of Commons did not select the amendment for a vote.

Some British news outlets reported on Friday that, in a desperate bid to win the backing of Labour members, the government was offering money to finance projects in their districts.

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A security agent checking trucks this month at Coquelles, France, a border inspection post built in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit.CreditPhilippe Huguen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

What comes next?

Like many moments in Britain’s prolonged journey, it’s not entirely clear.

Britain was originally set to leave the European Union on Friday, but European leaders agreed last week to a short extension.

Now that lawmakers have rejected it again, and if Britain takes no further action, it would withdraw on April 12 without an agreement — an option wanted by neither the European Union nor most British lawmakers.

Mrs. May could once again ask Brussels for more time. But European leaders have said that they would be open in such a case only to a long extension, possibly of a year or more, to allow for a fundamental rethinking of Britain’s position.

“The European Union have been clear that any further extension will need to have a clear purpose,” she said after the vote, and would require agreement by the heads of government of Britain and the other 27 member nations.

Minutes after Parliament defeated the plan, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, one of the European Union’s governing bodies, announced that, in light of the vote, he was calling a council meeting on April 10.

A long postponement would require Britain to elect representatives to the European Parliament in voting that would take place from May 23 to 26 in all member states. If Britain chose not to take part, it would leave with no deal at 11 p.m. London time on April 12.

Both Labour and Scottish National Party leaders said that Mrs. May should call an early general election. The deadlock in London could force Mrs. May to go that route, and it could also build support for a second referendum.

In addition, Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party, said, “We must now look seriously at the option of revocation” of Article 50, the provision of the Lisbon Treaty that Britain invoked to leave the European Union.

With Mrs. May’s promise to step down, approval of the agreement would have set off a fight among Conservatives to choose a new leader.

Many people in Britain and on the Continent are getting tired of the uncertainty. Among them is Jon Worth, a political consultant who has been making (and remaking) flowcharts to map the potential outcomes of the withdrawal process.

Mr. Worth, who works as a communications consultant for European politicians, has made 27 versions of his Brexit flowcharts, mapping every twist and turn in the political saga.

After a 2-year wait to celebrate ‘Independence Day’ … more waiting

For Brexit supporters, March 29 — the originally scheduled day of Britain’s official departure from the European Union — was supposed to be one big party, with a gala celebration at 11 p.m.

Big Ben, currently silenced by a renovation of the famous London clock tower, was to emerge from the scaffolding to chime Britain out of the European Union, sounding the death knell for 45 years of European integration. A commemorative coin was planned by the Royal Mint.

Either March 29 or June 23, the date of the 2016 referendum to leave the bloc, was supposed to be established as “Independence Day.” But the champagne is still on ice.

“I dearly wish we could be toasting Britain’s freedom with champagne at 11 p.m. on Friday, just as we’d planned,” said Allison Pearson, a columnist for the stridently pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph. “Under the circumstances, half a glass of Tizer and Nurofen is more like it,” she said, referring to a British soft drink and a painkiller.

Asked this month about the fate of the March 29 commemorative coins, the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, said he was unsure whether they had actually been made. If so, he told the BBC, “they will become collectors’ pieces.”

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Bookmakers’ odds on probable contenders for prime minister were displayed outside Parliament on Thursday.CreditDan Kitwood/Getty Images

Who could be the next prime minister?

“I have heard very clearly the mood of the parliamentary party,” Mrs. May told Conservative lawmakers gathered in a meeting room in Parliament this week, as she announced plans to step aside if her Brexit plan were approved. “I know there is a desire for a new approach, and new leadership, in the second phase of the Brexit negotiations, and I won’t stand in the way of that.”

After the surprise offer on Wednesday, political analysts were quick to speculate about who might replace her. Her departure, which would not come before the May 22 withdrawal date, would leave the Conservative Party to select a new leader to see the process through.

Candidates for party leadership have to be nominated by two other members of Parliament, though if there is only one candidate, he or she automatically becomes the new leader. If more than two candidates emerge, lawmakers vote among themselves to narrow the field and then put two candidates to a vote by all party members, not just those in Parliament.

There is no obvious front-runner, but British bookmakers are already offering odds on some of the politicians they believe to be probable contenders for the job. They include hard-line Brexit supporters, vocal critics of the prime minister’s approach and supporters of her strategy.

Here’s a look at potential successors who have been given the best odds at clinching the role.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit.html

2019-03-29 16:10:27Z
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Brexit vote today on Theresa May's European Union withdrawal agreement could lead to no-deal or long delay - Live updates - CBS News

London -- Friday was meant to be the day Britain formally ceased to be a member of the European Union. But three years after the public referendum calling for the divorce, the two sides appeared no closer to agreeing an amicable separation. Even Britain has yet to figure out what it wants. 

British lawmakers have made it abundantly clear, however, what they don't want: the hard-won draft "Brexit" plan that Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the EU. On Friday afternoon, Parliament rejected -- for a third time -- May's withdrawal deal, or at least the most elemental part of it, the legal withdrawal agreement.  

The vote leaves the U.K. closer to a possible "crash out" of the European Union on April 12 with no deal in place -- risking a dramatic impact on the British economy. Or Britain could seek a much longer delay to the process from the EU.

May's government stripped out all of the "political agreement" aspect of her draft deal to bring it to a vote on Friday because she has been forbidden by the legislature from bringing the exact same deal back for a third vote.

Brexit, a comedy of errors

But it wasn't just that she needed to present an altered plan for a vote; she also knew that the devil was in the details.

So what's next?

Nobody really knows for sure. Lawmakers will gather again on Monday to hold another series of votes on a range of alternative plans to May's. But they tried that just days ago and not one of the eight options put forward gained majority backing from lawmakers.

As CBS News correspondent Mark Phillips reported from Parliament on Friday, there is no clear path to Brexit.

"I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house," May herself noted immediately after losing the vote, but she vowed to  "continue to press the case for an orderly Brexit."

Calls were made quickly, however, for May to step down, and the prospect of a new general election was also rising. 

There are still huge differences of opinion in London over key aspects of how any divorce should work, most notably how to keep goods and people flowing smoothly across the border between Northern Ireland (part of Britain) and Ireland (an independent nation and EU member). The small frontier is the only land border between the U.K. and the EU, and it has essentially been an invisible line for decades, since peace was restored after years of sectarian violence on the island;  "The Troubles."

On Wednesday, May even offered to resign the premiership if lawmakers backed her deal, but the concession didn't work. She lost by 58 votes.

The Prime Minister may now seek another, longer extension to Britain's exit from the EU, but it isn't clear if May will be allowed to remain in power long enough to continue driving the process -- not that a new general election would bring any near-term certainty to the Brexit fiasco.

There were also mounting calls after Friday's vote for an outright revocation of the "Article 50" measure that the U.K. filed under EU law, officially putting the Brexit process in motion. Some Members of Parliament want Article 50 revoked to give the British legislature more time to find a consensus plan. Others want it revoked to simply stop the process, and possible not resume it.

What the EU says

EU leaders said right after the vote that it had made a "no-deal" Brexit even more likely, and they reissued their call for Britain's lawmakers to decide on and then tell the other 27 members states what they want.

"The risk of a no-deal Brexit is very real," Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte told journalists right after the vote in London. "One of the two routes to an orderly Brexit seems now to be closed. This leaves only the other route, which is for the British to make clear what they want before April 12."

Poland's prime minister said before the vote that the European Union was open to further extending Britain's departure from the bloc. Premier Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters, after talks with EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, that if May's bid in the House of Commons failed, the EU was "open to extending the departure process" on a motion from London, by "six or nine or 12 months, these options are available." But they only want to do that if it looks like such a delay will yield progress at breaking the deadlock in London.

In a statement released on Friday, the European Commission, said: "As per the European Council (Article 50) decision on 22 March, the period provided for in Article 50(3) is extended to 12 April. It will be for the UK to indicate the way forward before that date, for consideration by the European Council. A "no-deal" scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario." 

Many Brexit backers in Britain, including in May's own Conservative Party, would be loathe to see the process dragged out much longer, fearing it could lead to death-by-delay of the mandate given by the public in the 2016 referendum.

Pro-Brexit protesters take part in the March to Leave demonstration, in London, March 29, 2019. REUTERS

Retired charity worker Mandy Childs, one of a band of hard-core Brexit supporters who walked across England to London under the slogan "Leave Means Leave," said she felt "heartbroken."

"We were told over a 100 times by a British prime minister that we would be leaving on the 29th of March, 2019," she said.

"To do that, promise the British people that and then say 'Actually, no, we need to just put it back' - absolute betrayal. And how dare she?" 

Opinion polls have shown that since the referendum, as the complexities of the divorce have become apparent and the "Vote Leave" campaign has come under mounting criticism for its tactics during the run-up to the public vote, the tide has likely turned, and a thin majority now appears to be against leaving the EU at all.

Indeed hundreds of people did join the "March to Leave" rally that trooped through central London on Friday, but the numbers were dwarfed by a huge demonstration in the British capital over the weekend, demanding a second public vote, with many rejecting any Brexit at all.

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2019-03-29 15:07:00Z
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Britain's Brexit was meant to happen today. Instead everyone's confused. - NBC News

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March 29, 2019, 10:50 AM GMT / Updated March 29, 2019, 12:01 PM GMT

By Alexander Smith

LONDON — Friday was meant to be the day when Britain's Brexit mayhem finally reached a moment of certainty.

For exactly two years, March 29, 2019, has been seared into British minds as the date their country would finally leave the European Union.

Instead, that milestone has been postponed. British lawmakers continue to disagree and dither, failing time and again to reach an agreement on how exactly this divorce should work. And in Europe — the other side of this dysfunctional relationship — the mood among many is bleak.

On Friday, having suffered two crushing defeats already, Prime Minister Theresa May is set to ask Parliament for a third time to support at least part of the plan she has negotiated with the E.U.

She will ask them to support just the withdrawal agreement element of her plan, which sets out the terms of divorce. All this week it was widely believed her attempts would fail again, but at the 11th hour there were signs the vote could be narrowing.

Several key opponents who have previously slammed May's tactics have now said they would reluctantly give her their support. Chief among them perhaps is Boris Johnson, the New York-born former foreign secretary.

Feb. 7, 201909:58

If her partial-deal passes, May will have achieved a remarkable turnaround. It would represent the first step to securing her plan, a glimmer of certainty in what many regard as Britain's gravest peacetime crisis. She would have until May 22, the new deadline, to ratify the deal into in law.

If it fails, there will be an extension until April 12 that could morph into a lengthy delay, raising the possibility of a general election, a second referendum or even no Brexit at all.

Unless there is some sort of intervention either way, Britain will crash out of Europe without a deal — something many consider a nightmare scenario.

Each day in London seems to bring a new vote or an increasingly complex proposal, championed by its backers as a possible key to the deadlock. So far none have succeeded.

Larissa Brunner, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, said many in the E.U.'s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, were "completely dismayed at the political process in the U.K."

"They have no idea how this is going to end. Many have given up making predictions," she said.

The E.U. announced this week that it believes it is "increasingly likely" the U.K. will fail to reach any deal at all.

"They don't trust the U.K. political class not to screw up," Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, tweeted Thursday.

'A lose-lose situation'

A "no-deal Brexit" — as this outcome is known — does have its supporters. However most experts predict it would be a hammer blow for the British economy, and even threaten to destabilize some of the basic aspects of day-to-day life.

Before the U.K. voted to leave in June 2016, it was bound to the E.U. by more than four decades of shared laws and regulations. The relationship has become so close that Britain and the other 27 member states operate almost like a single country in many respects.

Crashing out without a deal would see these myriad agreements torn up overnight.

Some of the predictions are terrifying: shortages of food, medicine, and basic supplies such as toilet paper; suggestions farmers might be forced to slaughter and burn 10 million lambs because they can no longer sell them to Europe; and miles of tailbacks as haulage trucks encounter their first port checks for years.

The military has put 3,500 troops on standby and it already has a crisis team operating out of a subterranean nuclear bunker below the Ministry of Defense.

Perhaps more alarmingly, a no-deal Brexit could mean some form what is known as a "hard border" between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and the Irish Republic, which is a separate country and will remain in the E.U. after Brexit.

At the moment the border is all but invisible. Many fear a physical boundary would become a target for sectarian agitators, risking a return to violence rarely seen since The Troubles, a 30-year conflict that plagued the U.K. until 1998.

Protesters on either side have been camped outside Parliament for weeks.Peter Nicholls / Reuters

Hard-line Brexit supporters have argued that under this scenario the U.K. would be within its rights not to pay its divorce bill of around 39 billion pounds (around $51 billion). Legal experts say the E.U. could respond by simply suing the U.K. in an international court.

In all, the British economy could be 9 percent weaker over 15 years under no-deal than if it had stayed in the U.K., according to the government's own estimates.

The damaging ripples would likely not stop there.

No-deal could have dire implications for the economy of the Irish Republic, whose second largest export market is the U.K. In France, Belgium and the Netherlands, it would mean devoting large amounts of money, resources and personnel to check all goods coming from Britain.

"A no-deal Brexit would be a lose-lose situation for everybody," said Brunner at the European Policy Centre.

'Now we need a yes'

So much damage, psychologically at least, has already been done. Brexit has paralyzed large aspects of public and private life, carving unprecedented rifts within the major political parties, saturating news media, and sparking bitter arguments between family and friends the country over.

Many analysts feel that a general election — reshuffling the U.K.'s knife-edge parliamentary arithmetic — is now a real possibility in the coming months.

Accompanying the dismay emanating from Europe, there has also been a deep sense of frustration at what they see as Britain's chronic indecision.

E.U. negotiators spent years thrashing out a deal with May and her team, forging a hard-fought compromise that both parties found acceptable.

Aedis publishing house in Lempdes, France, has already begun printing maps showing Britain outside the E.U.Thierry Zoccolan / AFP - Getty Images

As well as the withdrawal agreement being voted on Friday, it also contains a short, non-binding document known as the political declaration, which sets out an outline of the future relationship.

As far as Europe is concerned, it has done its part. But British lawmakers have rejected May's deal twice — crushing it in the heaviest and fourth heaviest defeats in parliamentary history. On Wednesday they also rejected eight other alternatives ranging from an extreme no-deal Brexit to canceling Brexit altogether.

"We counted eight 'nos' last night," an exasperated European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters they next day. "Now we need a yes on the way forward."

Alexander Smith

Alexander Smith is a London-based senior reporter for NBC News Digital.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/britain-s-brexit-was-meant-happen-today-instead-everyone-s-n988731

2019-03-29 10:50:00Z
CAIiEH7HdImsOxBMn5Io3PZeLi8qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowvIaCCzDnxf4CMM2F8gU

Britain has been shaping the world for centuries. That won’t change with Brexit. - The Washington Post

Jeremy Hunt is Britain’s secretary of state for foreign and Commonwealth affairs.

LONDON

The 18th-century Scottish poet Robert Burns was perhaps the most gifted wordsmith of his age. Every foreign minister should ponder one of his lines: “Oh, would some Power give us the gift / To see ourselves as others see us!”

When I picture how others see Britain right now, I suspect old friends are shaking puzzled heads. The clash and thunder over Brexit is not an appealing spectacle. Some may feel that British politicians are acting out “ Monty Python ” sketches in real life.

So please put aside the doom-laden commentary and accept my assurance: We British are neither abandoning our neighbors nor retreating from the world. We have not taken leave of our senses.

True, our Parliament can be exasperating. But in a democracy, that is also its job. The mother of parliaments is proud, fiercely independent and sovereign. If the British government must fight for every vote on something as crucial as our country’s place in Europe, that is as it should be. If we lose sometimes, that, too, is democracy. For all the pressure it puts on me personally, I take pride in answering to a Parliament that is impossible to suborn.

In some countries, disputes of this kind might spill violently into the streets. In Britain, our national debate on Brexit has been contained within our democratic institutions. We have been through worse — the repeal of the Corn Laws, for instance, poisoned British politics for a generation after 1846. We have also shown resilience in the most supreme of tests — maintaining parliamentary democracy and removing a respected prime minister even as the country fought for its life during World War II. Having survived such tests, British institutions will overcome this one, too.

Look beneath the surface and Britain’s international position remains unchanged. The United Kingdom is a small archipelago, with rather less than 1 percent is of the world’s population. Alongside the United States, we have done more to shape the world we live in than any other country and remain in the global top five of most important leagues.

We have the fifth-largest economy in the world, the No. 1 financial center in our hemisphere and the second-largest military budget in NATO.

We reliably supply three of the world’s top 10 universities in surveys and are often ranked at or near the top for “soft power.” When it comes to innovation, we are fourth in the global league, according to an annual index compiled by organizations including Cornell University and the World Intellectual Property Organization. And we continue to rank the highest or near it for business-friendliness.

Don’t forget that Britain also possesses a nuclear deterrent, globally deployable armed forces and two new aircraft carriers. We like to believe we are the most capable ally that the United States has. We’ve been with the United States in Afghanistan from the beginning in 2001; our servicemen and women have helped you to take apart the Islamic State in the Middle East.

And we do more for European security than any of our neighbors. Right now, British soldiers make up the single largest contingent of NATO’s deployment in Poland and the Baltic states.

It might seem odd that we are protecting these European Union members in the middle of Brexit negotiations. In truth, it’s entirely logical. Britain is leaving the structures of the E.U., which we joined as recently as 1973, as that organization moves from economic cooperation to political union. But our unconditional commitment to the security of our continent long predates our E.U. membership and will not waver after we leave.

In fact, one of the few things that unites British politicians of all parties and our European counterparts is that we plan to work hand-in-glove on foreign and security policy after Brexit. Our vital interests and values are going to stay aligned, just as they will with the United States.

So once Brexit has happened, be in no doubt that Britain will retain all the capabilities of a global power. The United States may be the superpower, but our worldwide network of alliances and friendships places Britain among the handful of countries with genuinely global reach. We want to put it at the service of the democratic values both our countries share.

As the country steps up to its global destiny, I follow in a remarkable tradition. The first foreign secretary, Charles James Fox, abolished the slave trade. Another, George Canning, reshaped South America by helping its countries to achieve independence.

Outside my office stands a bust of Ernest Bevin, who was an architect of NATO exactly 70 years ago and arguably did as much for European security as any other postwar European politician. Bevin also ensured that Britain stayed out of the supranational body that came before the E.U. He saw no contradiction between those two positions — and he was right.

Britain has been shaping the world for centuries, and we’re here to stay.

Read more: The Post’s View: Britain stands at the brink of chaos Megan McArdle: What the political storms over the Mueller report and Brexit have in common Anne Applebaum: Theresa May isn’t the adult in the room. She’s part of the problem. Nick Cohen: The quest for Brexit has killed Britain

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/britain-has-been-shaping-the-world-for-centuries-that-wont-change-with-brexit/2019/03/28/98767866-5194-11e9-88a1-ed346f0ec94f_story.html

2019-03-28 22:45:40Z
CAIiEGoKTvaQzuLbJcJ7UK54c1oqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjtSUCjC30XQwzqe5AQ

Brexit vote: What are MPs doing on Friday? - BBC News

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Friday should have been the day the UK officially left the EU.

But Parliament still hasn't come to an agreement on the best way forward for Brexit.

On Thursday, the Commons Leader, Andrea Leadsom, revealed the government would give MPs another vote on Friday.

But what on this time?

Here is what we know...

What is the plan?

The government has tabled a motion to be debated in the Commons on Friday about Brexit.

But unlike previous occasions, where MPs have been talking about the entirety of Theresa May's deal, this time it is just the one of two elements.

Part one is the withdrawal agreement - the legally binding document that sets out the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. This includes a settlement, details of a transition period for after we leave and protections for citizens' rights. It also includes the controversial backstop, or the insurance policy that aims to prevent a hard border returning to the island of Ireland.

Part two is the political declaration - non-legally binding document that outlines plans for the future relationship between the UK and the bloc after exit day.

The government will only put part one - the withdrawal agreement - to the Commons for a vote.

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Why has this plan come about now?

Mrs May has put her whole deal to Parliament twice in what were called "meaningful votes" to secure her deal, but both times her plan has been voted down by historic margins.

After it became clear the government would not be able to pass the deal and complete all the legislation by the original Brexit date of 29 March - this Friday - Mrs May asked the EU for an extension.

They said that if the withdrawal agreement was agreed by MPs by 29 March, the UK could then have until 22 May to sort out the paperwork.

If not, the UK would only have until 12 April to come up with an alternative or face leaving the EU without a deal.

Then the Speaker, John Bercow, warned the government they could not bring back the deal for a third meaningful vote unless it had changed substantially - seen by some as torpedoing a quick return to the Commons.

Ministers have been trying to win MPs over to back the deal and this culminated in Mrs May offering to resign to allow someone else to lead the next set of negotiations with the EU - on the proviso they voted for it when it came back to the House.

By splitting the withdrawal agreement from the political declaration, the government would adhere to the rules set out by the EU of agreeing that section by the 29 March - meaning the extension of 22 May would stand.

How would the day in Parliament work?

MPs only sit on a Friday to debate private members' bills - but they more usually use the day to carry out work in their constituencies.

But the government tabled a motion to ask MPs to sit for the extra day.

If they approve it, the Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, has said the day would run between 09:30 GMT and 14:30 GMT.

The government has now tabled a motion on the withdrawal agreement to allow MPs to debate it.

It is an amendable motion, which allows MPs to put forward their own changes to it.

It will be up to the Speaker if he accepts any of the amendments, and he will announce them at the start of the debate.

Once the debate is finished, MPs will then get a chance to vote on any amendments and then the motion itself.

What could be the outcome?

If MPs approve the withdrawal agreement on Friday, they will have met the requirements to push exit day back to 22 May.

But under current law, it would not be enough to ratify the deal because only one part would be approved.

The government would either have to pass part two of the deal - the political declaration on the future relationship - at a later date, or change the law so that it is not needed to ratify the treaty.

Labour MP and chair of the Brexit Select Committee, Hilary Benn, warned it could also mean the UK could not apply for a longer extension, which might be needed in a number of scenarios - such as to hold a general election or a further referendum.

He asked Attorney General Geoffrey Cox if this would be the case, but Mr Cox replied by saying he would answer the question on Friday morning during his statement to the House.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47739143

2019-03-28 17:24:42Z
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