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Analysis: The UK should have enough vaccine to hit its target - just 

By Rowland Manthorpe, technology correspondent

The only official statistics we have been given on vaccine supply came from the Scottish government, which published week-by-week figures on expected supply in its vaccine plan earlier this month.

According to the Scottish projections, the government would make its target with room to spare, because it would have received around 20 million doses by the 15 February deadline.

Yet, almost two weeks after those figures were published, it is clear that the promised supply has not been received. As the graph below shows, the UK is stubbornly below the vaccination rate that would be expected from the Scottish government projections. 

The reason, ministers say, is simple: the promised supply hasn't arrived. 

Where does that leave us? Given the government's secrecy around supply, it is hard to be sure. But we can glean some sense of the likely future from figures given last week for Yorkshire.

According to multiple reports, MPs in Yorkshire were told that the county would receive 364,000 vaccine doses in the week of 18 January, 300,000 doses in the week of January, 350,000 doses in the week of 1 February and 250,000 doses the week after that. 

The reason this matters for the question of vaccine supply: because if the Yorkshire numbers are broadly correct, we can use them to estimate vaccine supply for the UK as a whole. 

According to this back of the envelope calculation, the UK will have enough vaccine to make the government's target - but only just. 

If you allow a week's lag to get the vaccine distributed and delivered, then the Yorkshire vaccine figures suggest that the UK will have 14.5 million doses of the vaccine by 15 February.

That should be just enough to make the target, because not everyone will take up their vaccine offer. But, as Matt Hancock said recently, it will be "tight". Very tight.

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2021-01-26 07:28:04Z
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