What happens now to the Tory party? Another leadership race of course - The Independent

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Louise Thomas

Editor

A fight for the soul of the Conservative Party is erupting – and the fallout could be brutal.

Even before a single vote had been counted, senior Tories had turned their attention to what they consider the pressing question - what happens to their party now?

Many feel it is no exaggeration to say it is in a fight for its very survival.

And the decisions it makes in the next few weeks and months could decide whether it lives or dies.

The battle will focus on the choice of a new leader.

Under the current rules, the party’s remaining rump of MPs get to decide which of the eventual leadership candidates will make it to the final two.

Tory insiders say the party is now facing an existential crisis (Jonathan Brady/PA Wire)

At that stage more than 100,000 local party members then make their choice and crown the winner.

The first stage of the process will give enormous power to the MPs who have survived the cull. But who will they plump for?

The right of the party accuses Rishi Sunak’s No 10 of trying to rig the vote on his successor by parachuting candidates from the centrist wing into what should be safer seats.

On the other hand, their opponents fear the party is about to stage a lurch to the right, which they argue could condemn it to a long time outside government.

The elephant in the room are fears of a takeover by Reform-backing supporters of Farage, or even Mr Farage himself. Many Conservatives harbour barely conceled fury towards the man who cost many Tory MPs their jobs. But there are some in the party who still want to embrace the populist Reform UK leader.

His supporters say the decision to stand against Tories in every seat in the country was taken before he dramatically returned as leader during the election. And they point to the fact that he hinted at a possible deal to stand down in certain areas, suggesting that he and Mr Sunak should “have a conversation”.

When will the leadership election start?

In truth the contest to be the next Tory leader is well underway, behind the scenes.

Tory MPs have already been talking up the chances of the Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and the former home secretaries Suella Braverman and Priti Patel.

Ms Patel in particular, is talked of as someone who could appeal to both wings of the party.

MPs also speak of her personal kindness, as an attribute that could secure her votes. One MP told the Independent Ms Patel asks after her son every year - on his birthday.

The battle will focus on who will replace Rishi Sunak (Jonathan Brady/PA) (PA Wire)

Names floating among the ‘One Nation’ wing of the party include the security minister Tom Tugendhat, who is considered to have grown in stature since he unsuccessfully stood for the leadership two years ago.

The other name mentioned is the health secretary Victoria Atkins, currently the most senior member, in terms of cabinet rank, in the group and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

How long will it last?

A furious row being waged within the party over the length of any election contest. Some want to give the party time to regroup and avoid it making a rash decision. Supporters of this view favour a long election contest. But opponents warn the party should learn from Labour in 2010. Its months long process to decide a new leader is widely seen as sowing the seeds of some of the choas that followed - helping to enure the party remained out of power for 14 years.

The battle was already ramping up on Wednesday - more than 24 hours before a single vote had been cast.

In a sign that the battle ahead will be fraught, Ms Braverman told her party it had to relocate its soul and shift to the right as it accepted the reality of opposition. But just hours later she accused the then cabinet minister Mel Stride of being defeatist.

And asked who she’d like to be the next Tory leader, former minister Andrea Jenkyns appeared almost nihilistic telling the BBC: “We’ll see who’s left.”

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Jay Slater could still be alive 'drinking rainwater', investigator says - latest news - The Independent

Exploring the isolated Tenerife landscape of Jay Slater's last known location

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Our mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.

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Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.

Louise Thomas

Editor

A private detective has urged Jay Slater’s family “not to give up” as he suggests he may have survived up until now by “drinking rainwater” and “eating plants”.

The Spanish police called off the search for the missing 19-year-old on Sunday after a gruelling 13-day search.

However private investigator and army reservist Juan García, 53, criticised the authorities for halting the search too early.

He told The Times: “[Slater] could be alive somewhere — someone can drink from rainwater and eat plants. The family should not give up hope.”

He added that he had spoken to Jay’s family - who are still in Tenerife desperately trying to find the apprentice bricklayeer - to directly to offer his advice.

The 19-year-old had attended the NRG music festival on the Canary Island on Sunday June 16, before he went back to an AirBnb around an hours drive from the festival with two men he had met.

He left the property early on Monday morning and called his friend at 8.50am to say that he was lost in the Rural de Teno park with no water and only had one per cent battery on his phone

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Full story: Jay Slater could still be alive ‘drinking rainwater and eating plants’, detective says

A private investigator has urged Jay Slater’s family “not to give up hope”, claiming the missing teenager could still be alive “drinking rainwater and eating plants”.

His disappearance sparked huge national interest and a huge search operation but following a gruelling 13-day search, the Spanish Civil Guard called off its operation on Sunday.

However, private investigator and army reservist Juan García, 53, said that it was too early to halt the search.

Read the full story below:

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 07:00

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Jay Slater’s dad wonders if son was making his way to sea

Jay Slater’s father Warren, 58, has been searching a trail at Jay’s last known location at Rural de Teno Park on Wednesday.

Asked if he thinks Jay may have been heading towards the sea, which was visible in the distance, Warren told the Manchester Evening News: “Maybe”.

“I’ve done this trail now twice. Every step I’ve took there’s been an opening. If you land on one of those cactus’ you’re not moving. Surely somebody’s gonna find you after two weeks.”

Speaking about the area below him, he said: “It’s hundreds of square feet of this little bushy stuff. You can’t explain this to somebody unless they see it. You can take a photograph or film it, but until you’re here...”.

(Sky News)

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 06:00

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Jay knew men whose AirBnb he went back to ‘through friends’

The man whose AirBnb Jay Slater visited before disappearing said they knew each other through friends.

Ayub Qassim is believed to be one of two men who invited Jay Slater back to their holiday accommodation in Masca in the early hours of Monday morning.

Jay left the Airbnb at around 8am but having missed the bus back down to his own accommodation in Playa de Las Americas, he attempted an 11 hour journey through the remote and challenging terrain of Rural de Teno park.

Mr Qassim said Jay left the house “alive” and said he knew Jay “through friends”.

“I know Jay, through friends, I’m not going to bring someone back to mine if I don’t know them,” he told the MailOnline. “I don’t know if he had beef elsewhere because I don’t know him that well, I only know him through friends.”

He added: “He’s a cool guy, Jay. He ain’t got a problem with me, I haven’t got a problem with him or his mates. We just all talk to each other and everything was sweet.”

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 05:00

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Forensic officers spotted inside AirBnb rental property

Forensic officers were spotted at the AirBnb in Masca on Tuesday, the Manchester Evening News reports.

Two police officers were seen inside the holiday rental apartment where Jay stayed the night before his disappearance. The men, who were both wearing plain clothes, exited the property shortly after 11am wearing forensic style blue slip-ons over their shoes.

They were then seen taking the slip-ons off before speaking to a local, who had let them into the property with a key.

The Airbnb Casa Abuela Tina in Masca which Jay Slater travelled to (James Manning/PA) (PA Wire)

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 03:30

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Friends told Jay Slater ‘head back to AirBnb’ before disappearance

A TV detective investigating Jay Slater’s dissapearance has said the teenager was told by friends to head back to an AirBnB where he had stayed the night before he went missing.

Mark Williams-Thomas - who also investigated Nicola Bulley’s disappearance - has been assisting Jay’s family in their search for the 19-year-old in Tenerife.

Jay seemingly left the Veronica’s party strip in the south of the island in the early hours of Monday morning with two men he had met, before taking an hour-long drive to

They travelled an hours drive back to their holiday accommodation in Masca, which Jay left several hours later and having missed the bus, attempted to walk 11 hours back towards his own accommodation.

Mr Williams-Thomas highlighted Jay’s strange decision to embark on the walk through challenging terrain rather than return to the AirBnb.

He said: “He was told to go back to the rental. He said he could not do that and that he had already been walking 30 minutes and that he was now off the road and walking on a track, where there were loose stones.”

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 02:00

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The vanished of Tenerife: Other people who disappeared on the island where Jay Slater went missing

From the party vibes of the neon-lit strip of Playa De Las Americas to the spiritual hikes across cacti-infested ravines in the heat, there is something for everyone.

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 01:00

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Man whose AirBnb Jay Slater went back to breaks silence

The man who invited Jay Slater back to his AirBnb before he disappeared has broken his silence.

The 19-year-old went missing after he left the holiday accommodation early on Monday morning to catch a bus back towards his own accommodation on the other side of the island.

Ayub Qassim invited Jay back to the remote holiday cottage near the village of Masca after a night out in Playa de las Americas.

“He came to my Airbnb alive and he left my Airbnb alive,” he told the MailOnline.

He added: “I let the geezer stay at mine because he had nowhere else to go, his friends had all left him. I know Jay, through friends, I’m not going to bring someone back to mine if I don’t know them.

“I’m doing the geezer a favour and now my face is all over the news. It’s a bit mental. I haven’t even done anything.”

He insisted they had no argument and he had even given Jay a blanket to sleep in. He and his friend - who was also staying at the AirBnb - extended their trip for a day to speak with police before travelling back to the UK.

Spanish police have described the pair as “irrelevant” to the investigation.

(James Manning/PA Wire)

Athena Stavrou5 July 2024 00:01

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Jay Slater is a ‘normal guy’ with a large group of friends, say family

In an emotional statement, his family described him as a “beautiful” boy who had been studying for an apprenticeship at the time he disappeared.

They said: “My son, Jay Dean Slater, came to the holiday island of Tenerife on 13 June with his friend to attend a music festival.

“On 17 June after not returning to his apartment he was reported as a missing person.

“Jay is a normal guy who is in his third year of an apprenticeship, and he is a very popular young man with a large circle of friends.

“We are a very close family and are absolutely devastated about his disappearance.

“Words cannot describe the pain and agony we are experiencing. He is our beautiful boy with his whole life ahead of him and we just want to find him.”

Athena Stavrou4 July 2024 22:30

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‘Sunglasses could be vital clue in hunt for Jay Slater’

The Daily Mail’s Nick Pisa said he had spoken to a man who had “found a pair of sunglasses” on the gorge, and had handed them in to the police.

Pisa explained to GB News: “I’ve now spoken to an ex-British Army officer who found some sunglasses up there. He was asked not to put them in a plastic bag because of humidity, but to wrap them up in tissue paper, which he did.

“He handed them in and he had to give DNA and his fingerprints. The question is, are they connected to Jay?”

An appeal poster for Jay Slater, 19, who went missing during a holiday in Tenerife (Family handout) (PA Media)

Athena Stavrou4 July 2024 21:30

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Missing Persons Tenerife group swells as Jay Slater search captures national zeitgeist

The Missing Persons Tenerife Facebook Group has swollen from 340 members to almost 8,000 in a fortnight.

Most, but not all of those joining are British nationals, some of whom are worried about their safety in visiting Tenerife, as well as those having an interest in the Jay Slater case.

Its admin Deborah Clarke-Topper said the spike meant other historical missing persons cases are gaining attention.

She told The Independent: “It is clear that the coverage of the case is building a perception that Tenerife is not a safe destination, and that the police do not act as favourably toward Britons on holiday as they would their own citizens.

“However, I am sure that the Spanish police are extremely earnest in their investigation and reaching a conclusion to it is what they want, regardless of the nationality of the missing person. As long as the case remains unresoved there will be negative perception on the safety of holiday makers.”

Athena Stavrou4 July 2024 20:30

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Labour Party wins UK election in a landslide: Live updates - CNBC

12 Min Ago

Growth of Reform UK the 'catalyst' for the Conservative's decline in election: Ipsos

Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, weighs in on the outcome of the U.K. parliamentary election.

21 Min Ago

What Labour's win means for UK markets

The arrival of a new Labour government hasn't moved markets all that much yet but analysts expect U.K. assets to become more attractive from here on out.

In a note Friday, analysts at Jefferies said, despite concerns raised by a strong showing for the right-wing Reform UK Party, the Labour Party's U.K. election win would help make the U.K. appear "relatively stable."

This, in combination with regulatory reform, "could raise the attractiveness of UK assets," Jefferies' analysts wrote in a research note.

Beata Manthey, European equity strategist at Citi, noted that history shows U.K. markets tend to trade flat on average six months after Labour wins, but "meaningfully higher one year later."

"On a relative basis, the UK market has tended to underperform 1-2 months after Labour wins, while tallying decent relative performance 12m post-election," Manthey said.

"The domestically oriented FTSE 250 has typically outperformed the FTSE 100 following Labour victories. Sterling and Gilts will be key to watch," she added.

"FTSE 250 over FTSE 100 is our preferred post-election trade."

- Ryan Browne

30 Min Ago

Analysts expect Labour government to boost housebuilders

"Persistently high inflation and the recent spike in lending rates will trigger a correction in the UK (Aa3 negative) housing market," Moody's Investor Service said in a report.

Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.K. housebuilding market is set to benefit from an incoming Labour government, several bank analysts wrote in research reports Friday.

In a note, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said that if Labour's election pledges turn into policy, this could mark the dawning of a "new age" for U.K. housebuilding.

"Over the last few years housebuilders' potential has been hamstrung, but over the next few this potential is likely to be unleashed," the bank's analysts wrote in their note.

"If the new Government's walk matches its talk we expect the sector to re-rate, and in the very short term we suspect that the talk alone will be enough to lift share prices," they added.

Expect to see the reinstatement of housing targets, refining of the greenbelt, a reform of planning, and the announcement of a "new generation of new towns," the RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote.

Meantime, Investec analysts said they expect housebuilders to "benefit from a more supportive planning backdrop as a significant part of the political hiatus around planning is removed."

"Even in the absence of any significant new policy support aimed at the first-time buyer and demand side, expected interest rate cuts should ease affordability constraints and boost sentiment."

"With negligible build cost inflation, a more favourable demand and supply backdrop should support a recovery in 2025," Investec's analysts added.

- Ryan Browne

2 Hours Ago

UK election results 'not as dramatic' as opinion polls have been suggesting: Invesco

Paul Jackson from Invesco says the Labour Party will nevertheless have a "very sizable majority" and will be "able to get on with their program."

2 Hours Ago

U.K. Labour Party win is ‘relatively positive,’ economist says

Benjamin Nabarro, chief U.K. economist at Citi, says the results of the U.K. general election were expected and offer the country "an opportunity for genuine policy stability after a period of obvious volatility."

35 Min Ago

House building sector to reap biggest benefit of election result: RBC

The house building sector stands to be a major beneficiary of the Labour Party's landslide victory in the Thursday general election, RBC's head of European capital goods research told CNBC's Silvia Amaro.

"It's front and center great for house builders, great for the wider building supply sector, bricks," Mark Fielding said Friday, pointing to two driving factors. "Two big factors: firstly a return to mandated targets for house building supporting 1.5 million new homes over the next five years, which would be a big positive, and secondly hopes on planning reforms, targeting to get that done."

That will in turn allow for faster planning processes and potentially for additional central government intervention to press ahead with more house approvals, according to Fielding, who noted that investor focus will otherwise now narrow on the Labour Party's ability to deliver on broader economic growth.

"U.K. bank stocks in the end are one of the biggest proxies for U.K. economic growth," he said.

— Ruxandra Iordache

2 Hours Ago

What does a Labour win mean for interest rates?

With Labour now destined for power in the U.K., analysts are now discussing what this might mean for the Bank of England and interest rate expectations.

Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal from Deutsche Bank sent the below comments in a flash research note:

"A Labour majority won't do much to shift rate expectations – at least not at this juncture. If anything, we expect Labour to a) set out a cautious fiscal path, with some modest increases to 2025/26 departmental spending alongside key policy objectives (such as its Green Prosperity Plan), which will largely be offset by tax hikes. There are risks to this view, however. Further net fiscal easing at the Autumn Budget, than we've pencilled in, could lead to a more cautious and gradual rate cut path relative to our basecase – particularly if growth continues to converge back to potential."

-Matt Clinch

1 Hour Ago

While much of Europe embraces hard-right parties, the UK has swung wildly to the left. Here’s why

Supporters wave the national flag of France during a campaign meeting of France's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party's President and lead European Parliament election candidate Jordan Bardella and President of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group Marine Le Pen, ahead of the upcoming European Union (EU) parliamentary elections, in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on May 24, 2024. 

Francois Lo Presti | Afp | Getty Images

In the formerly Brexiting, euroskeptic U.K., the pendulum has just swung back to the center-left Labour Party, which is set to come to power after a mammoth election win, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule.

A different picture is playing out in much of western Europe — and in countries that disdained Brexit and the U.K.'s populist trend in recent years over the last decade or so. These states are now seeing their own electorates shift to the right.

While the U.K. and mainland Europe are heading in different directions politically, analysts say that the driving force behind changing patterns at the polls is fundamentally the same: voters are desperate for change.

Read the full story here.

1 Hour Ago

European markets set to open higher

1 Hour Ago

What a new Labour government means for investing in the UK

The U.K.'s Labour party is set to take over from the Conservatives after 14 years, at a time when economic uncertainty is still rife in the country.

The two main political parties ran on different economic and financial manifestos during the election campaign that would likely have different consequences for the investing environment.

Housebuilding, utilities and airspace stocks are some of the sectors that could be impacted by the new government, experts told CNBC. The wider property and housing market is also set to be affected, while the British pound and bond markets are unlikely to react to the change in government.

Read the full story here.

— Sophie Kiderlin

1 Hour Ago

Congratulations begin to pour in for Labour's Starmer

Newly-declared Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaking at a convention in Athlone, central Ireland on March 24, 2024, after becoming de facto prime minister-in-waiting. Harris took over following the shock resignation of predecessor Leo Varadkar.

Paul Faith | Afp | Getty Images

International leaders have begun extending congratulations to incoming British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Close to home, his Irish counterpart, Taoiseach Simon Harris praised Starmer's "comprehensive victory" and stressed in a social media post that "the relationship between Ireland and the UK is deep and consequential. I look forward to it going from strength to strength."

Harris himself only assumed his post at Ireland's helm back in April.

Across the ocean, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted "lots of work ahead to build a more progressive, fair future for people on both sides of the Atlantic." Australia's PM Anthony Albanese also congratulated Starmer on a "resounding election victory," adding, "I look forward to working constructively with the incoming @UKLabour Government."

— Ruxandra Iordache

1 Hour Ago

Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss loses seat

Liz Truss, who briefly served as British prime minister for 44 days in 2022, has narrowly lost her seat in parliament in the election to Labour.

Truss won 25.3% of votes in her constituency Norfolk South West, a significant drop from the 69% of votes she won in the last election. The Labour party candidate Terry Jermy beat Truss after securing 26.7% of the vote.

Truss had been a member of parliament since 2010.

— Sophie Kiderlin

2 Hours Ago

British pound steady after election result confirmed

U.S. dollar bills are are pictured with British £1 coins and one Euro coins on September 27, 2022 in Bath, England. The UK pound sterling fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar as concerns grew at the prospect of a surge in the UK government borrowing to pay for the multiple tax cuts, announced in Conservative Party chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget. The fall in the value of sterling is also contributing to the UK's cost of living crisis, as inflation hits a near-30-year high. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Markets appeared to shrug off the end of a 14-year Conservative rule in Britain, after polls widely suggested the victory of the opposition Labour Party — suggesting a previous pricing in of the result.

The British pound made only light gains early morning on Friday, following departing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's concession speech.

The currency was up just 0.06% and 0.03% against the U.S. dollar and euro at 06:28 a.m. London time, respectively.

"The headline results from the election – a large Labour majority and the Conservatives in second place – are completely in line with expectations," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a Friday note, stressing that a Labour takeover generated a "very positive UK market (FX, bonds, stocks) reaction within hours" of new Chancellor Gordon Brown taking office back in 1997 and giving the Bank of England independence from political control over the nation's monetary policy.

"We don't think the market had built in a material positive risk premium in the pound for this outcome ahead of the election. As such, we'd expect sterling to [be] broadly unchanged following tonight's results," Deutsche Bank said, stressing that investors' focus will now shift toward the second round of the French vote on Sunday and on the next set of U.K. data as an indicator for whether the Bank of England can proceed with cutting interest rates in August.

— Ruxandra Iordache

2 Hours Ago

Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps: Conservatives lose high-profile MPs

The Conservative party lost several of its most high-profile members of parliament in the election, with Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps among those failing to secure another term.

Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons, narrowly lost in Portsmouth North, coming second to Labour candidate Amanda Martin by just 780 votes.

Labour won 34.8% of votes, while the Conservatives secured 33%, which was a sharp decline from the last general election when the party won over 61%.

High-profile backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg also lost his seat in parliament after winning 30.2% of votes in North East Somerset and Hanham, while Labour's Dan Norris secured 40.6%. Rees-Mogg had been an MP since 2010 and played a key role during Brexit.

Elsewhere, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lost to Labour's Andrew Lewin in Welwyn Hatfield, with the two securing 33.2% and 41% respectively.

— Sophie Kiderlin

3 Hours Ago

Starmer delivers victory speech: 'Change begins now'

Britain's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer delivers a speech during a victory rally at the Tate Modern in London early on July 5, 2024. 

Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images

Labour leader Keir Starmer delivered a victory speech in London as the voting confirmed that he will be the next prime minister of the U.K.

"We did it," he said, addressing his Labour collegaues. "You campaigned for it, you fought for it - and now it has arrived."

"Change begins now ... The sunlight of hope, pale at first but getting stronger through the day. Shining once again on a country with an opportunity after 14 years to get its future back."

Labour has now crossed the 326 seat threshold, meaning it can govern alone in the U.K.'s lower house of parliament.

-Matt Clinch

3 Hours Ago

Sunak: 'Sobering verdict tonight'

NORTHALLERTON, ENGLAND - JULY 5: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts as he waits for the count and declaration for the Richmond and Northallerton constituency during the UK general election on July 5, 2024 in Northallerton, England. 

Wpa Pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday conceded defeat in the country's parliamentary election and said that the opposition Labour party won.

"The Labour Party has won this general election and I have called Sir Keir Starmer to congratulate him on his victory," Sunak said. He was speaking after having won his seat in parliament in Richmond and Northallerton.

Sunak spoke of a "difficult night" for the Conservative Party, and said he took responsibility for the results.

"The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight. There is much to learn and reflect on," he said.

— Sophie Kiderlin

3 Hours Ago

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt holds seat

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt held onto his seat in parliament in the election, securing 42.6% of the vote in his constituency Godalming and Ash.

This was more than 10% less of the vote than the Conservative Party had secured in the last general election in this area. Hunt was previously a member of parliament in another area of the U.K., serving as MP for South West Surrey.

Hunt's seat was initially seen as a possible high-profile loss for the ruling Conservative Party.

— Sophie Kiderlin

3 Hours Ago

Rishi Sunak holds seat, but concedes defeat to Labour

The Conservative's Rishi Sunak, who has been prime minister since October 2022, held onto his seat in Richmond and Northallerton in the U.K. parliamentary election.

Sunak won 47.5% of the votes, which was however an over 15% decline from the previous election. Labour's Tom Wilson garnered 22.4% of the vote, coming in second place.

— Sophie Kiderlin

4 Hours Ago

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps loses seat in parliament

U.K. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lost his seat in Welwyn Hatfield in Thursday's parliamentary election.

He was defeated by Labour's Andrew Lewin who got 41% of the votes versus Shapps' 33.2% share.

The Conservative MP, who received 16,078 votes, has sat in parliament since 2005.

— Lee Ying Shan

5 Hours Ago

Reform UK's Nigel Farage wins a seat in parliament

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, during a news conference in London, UK, on Monday, June 3, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Populist politician Nigel Farage has won his first-ever seat in British parliament, after seven prior failed attempts.

The infamous Brexiteer won 46.2% of the vote in the Clacton constituency, with the Conservative Party coming in second with 27.9%.

The result comes amid a surprisingly strong election performance by Reform UK, which has a hardline stance on immigration and was born out of the Brexit Party. Exit polls indicate that the party could secure 13 parliamentary seats, having failed to win any in the 2019 election.

Read more here.

— Katrina Bishop

5 Hours Ago

Labour leader Keir Starmer makes first speech: 'Change begins right here'

Britain's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer delivers a speech after winning his seat for Holborn and St Pancras in London early on July 5, 2024 as polls close in Britain's general election. 

Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images

Labour leader Keir Starmer — the likely next prime minister of Britain — has made his first comments after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for his party.

"Tonight people here and around the country have spoken. And they're ready for change," he said.

"To end the politics of performance. A return to politics as public service. You have voted, it is now time for us to deliver."

He spoke after winning his seat — Holborn and St. Pancras in London — with 48.9% of the vote.

— Katrina Bishop

5 Hours Ago

Pro-Palestinian firebrand George Galloway loses seat after just a few months

ROCHDALE, England - Feb 29: Workers Party of Britain candidate George Galloway speaks after being declared the winner in the Rochdale by-election on February 29, 2024.

Christopher Furlong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

After winning a chaotic by-election just months ago, George Galloway has lost the parliamentary seat of Rochdale.

Labour won with 32.9% of the vote, to Galloway's Workers Party of Britain's 29% share.

On Feb. 29, the controversial former Labour politician won a by-election, giving his party its first-ever Member of Parliament in Britain's House of Commons.

Galloway ran a campaign heavily focused on the plight of Palestinians, appealing to the Muslim voters that make up around 30% of the local electorate, many of whom voiced anger about the war in Gaza and the failure of the country's two main parties to push for an immediate ceasefire.

— Katrina Bishop and Elliot Smith

6 Hours Ago

Reform UK wins first parliamentary seat

Reform UK won its first seat in Britain's 2024 general election, taking the East Midlands constituency of Ashfield from the Conservatives.

Reform's Lee Anderson secured 42.8% of the vote, followed by Labour's Rhea Keehn with 29%.

Exit polls indicate that the right-wing populist Reform party could gain 13 seats in this election — after winning none in the 2019 vote.

— Katrina Bishop

6 Hours Ago

Labour's Rachel Reeves holds seat, set to become first female chancellor

Labour's Rachel Reeves, shadow finance minister, has held her seat with 49.3% of the vote.

It means she's set to become Britain's first-ever female chancellor (the equivalent of a U.S. Treasury secretary).

In a post on X following the result, she said: "It is an honour and a privilege to be returned as the Member of Parliament for Leeds West and Pudsey. You have put your trust in me. And I will not let you down."

— Katrina Bishop

7 Hours Ago

What will Labour do in office?

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Deputy leader, Angela Rayner, attend an event to launch Labour's election pledges at The Backstage Centre on May 16, 2024 in Purfleet, United Kingdom. 

Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images

After 14 years in opposition, the Labour Party is near-guaranteed to win a sizeable majority in the next parliament, according to exit polls.

Many of its senior figures, including party leader Keir Starmer, deputy leader Angela Rayner and finance chief Rachel Reeves, have never served in government.

In a manifesto released in June, the party said it would focus on "wealth creation" and "economic growth." Reeves, who has long been on a charm offensive with the British business community, has repeatedly stated she will prioritize fiscal discipline in all policymaking.

The party's flagship pledges include the creation of a new publicly owned energy company, a ban on awarding new North Sea oil and gas licenses, reducing patient waiting times in the strained National Health Service, and renationalizing most passenger rail services.

It also plans to raise money for public services by cracking down on tax loopholes for so-called nondomiciled individuals, removing tax breaks for independent schools, closing what has been described as a "tax loophole" for private equity investors, and raising taxes on the purchases of residential properties by non-U.K. residents. It said it would make additional green investments through a "time-limited windfall tax" on oil and gas firms.

The party said it would recognize a Palestinian state, calling statehood "the inalienable right of the Palestinian people." 

— Jenni Reid

7 Hours Ago

Nigel Farage: 'We're going to win seats, many, many seats'

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage said the gains his party has seen so far are "almost unbelievable."

Speaking after the earliest official results put Reform in second place, the populist Brexiteer noted this outcome was "way more" than anyone expected.

"What does it mean? It means we're going to win seats, many, many seats," he said in a video post on X.

"Mainstream media are in denial, just as much as our political parties. This is going to be 6 million votes plus. This vote is huge."

In terms of vote share, at the time of writing, Reform was in second place with 23.8% of the vote — a 14 percentage point increase on 2019. Exit polls put the party's seats at 13.

— Katrina Bishop

6 Hours Ago

Rachel Reeves expected to become Britain's first-ever female finance minister

Labour's shadow chancellor of the exchequer Rachel Reeves.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Labour's shadow finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to become the U.K.'s first female chancellor, which she said would be a "huge privilege."

Speaking to Sky News, Reeves said she was under "no illusions about the scale of the challenge" she will face" if she does take up the role. Labour is forecast to win a landslide victory in the U.K.'s general election, and Reeves is also expected to hold her seat.

"The severity of the inheritance from the Conservatives is truly awful. But we will get to work, starting to rebuild our economy, returning stability to the economy, and improving our health service and our schools after 14 years of chaos, division and decline," she said.

Reeves has long been on a charm offensive with the British business community, repeatedly stating she will prioritize fiscal discipline in all policymaking.

— Katrina Bishop

7 Hours Ago

'Shy Reformers coming out in droves' with Reform UK set to make major gains

Honorary President of the Reform UK party Nigel Farage gestures during a press conference in London, Britain, June 3, 2024. 

Maja Smiejkowska | Reuters

Along with a huge vote for Labour and severe losses for the Conservatives, one of the major themes of the night so far has been the apparent gains by Reform UK.

It is forecast to win 13 seats and has significantly increased its vote share in early seats that have been declared.

The populist, right-wing party with a hardline stance on immigration was born out of the Brexit Party, which was founded by Nigel Farage and focused on calling for a "no-deal Brexit" between 2016 and 2021. After the completion of the Brexit process, it campaigned on issues such as opposition to Covid lockdowns.

The Brexit party did not win any seats in the 2019 general election.

Farage, who has served in the European Union parliament (on a pro-Brexit stance) but repeatedly failed to win a seat in the U.K. legislature, stepped down as party leader in March 2021. After previously stating he would not stand as an MP in 2024 in order to focus on supporting Donald Trump's U.S. presidential campaign, he reversed course in June and said he would both stand and resume his role as Reform UK leader.

Numerous analysts argued that the return of the well-known figure would boost the party at the expense of the Conservatives.

David Bull, co-deputy leader of Reform UK, told the BBC during overnight vote counting that pollsters had underestimated the party's support, as they had with the number of people who would back a Brexit vote.

"I think what you're seeing is actually the shy Reformers coming out in droves. We saw this with Brexit didn't we, the shy Brexiteers, so the pollsters were caught off-guard and once again they've been caught off guard," Bull said. "If that is true and we win 13 seats that is extraordinary."

A "shy" voter refers to someone who does not reveal in polls which way they will eventually vote.

— Jenni Reid

8 Hours Ago

How accurate are exit polls?

Exit polls have a strong track record of getting it right in Britain.

Investec notes they have correctly called the largest party (Conservatives) in the last four elections, with a mean absolute error of the overall majority of just 11.

"Exit polls ask the way that voters have actually voted in contrast with polls published during the campaign, which model voting intentions," Investec U.K. chief economist Philip Shaw wrote late Thursday.

"One can expect the actual outcome to be reasonably close to the [exit poll] figures ... With tactical voting perhaps more widespread than in previous elections however, perhaps one should not be too confident about this."

Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, issued a note of caution, however, highlighting that in 1974, exit polls overestimated Labour's seats by 61. In recent history — over the last 30 years — the largest exit poll mistake came in 2019, when the Conservative's seats were underestimated by 15, Wood added.

Timetable

After the first few results are announced before midnight London time, Investec said it expects a "particularly busy period of declarations between 03.00 and 04.00 a.m."

"A full set of results is expected by 07.00 tomorrow morning, although this may be delayed by recounts in various constituencies," Shaw wrote. "One further complication could arise if postal votes having been sent out late in certain areas were to lead to challenges by candidates who lost by a narrow margin."

He added that currency markets have hardly reacted, given the forecasted result was widely expected. "What will matter more to markets, ultimately, is what a Labour government chooses to do if and when it takes office."

— Katrina Bishop

8 Hours Ago

Who is Labour’s Keir Starmer?

Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer (C) gestures as he delivers a stump speech to supporters during a campaign visit to Hucknall Town Football Club on July 2, 2024 in Nottingham, United Kingdom. 

Christopher Furlong | Getty Images

Keir Starmer is on course to be the U.K.'s new prime minister, with exit polls suggesting his left-of-center party could have a majority of around 170 seats.

He will take the post from Rishi Sunak, who was elected between general elections by members of his Conservative Party in 2022.

Starmer, 61, has had a rapid political ascent after entering U.K. parliament less than a decade ago. But many Brits still know little about the man who has positioned himself as the country's candidate for change.

Starmer was born in 1962 in London, England, to a father who worked as a toolmaker and a mother who worked as a nurse. A barrister (or trial lawyer), he served as a human rights adviser during former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair's landmark Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement, and in 2008 became the head of the U.K.'s Crown Prosecution Service.

Starmer was knighted in 2014 for his services to criminal justice and was elected to Parliament the following year, serving as shadow immigration minister and Brexit minister for the opposition.

Read the full story here.

— Karen Gilchrist

9 Hours Ago

First seat of the election called for Labour

The first seat of the 2024 general election has been called for Labour in the constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South.

Bridget Phillipson, Labour's education chief, was declared the first member of the U.K.'s new parliament. She said that if exit polls were correct, "then after 14 years, the British people have chosen change."

Labour held the Houghton and Sunderland South seat, but the candidate for the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK party made a significant gain on its 2019 result (when it was called the Brexit Party), leapfrogging the Conservatives into second place.

Several constituencies in northern England race to be the first to declare in a general election.

In the 2017 and 2019 votes, Newcastle took that honor with announcements in less than 90 minutes of polls closing. Between 1992 and 2015, Sunderland was the first to declare its seat.

— Jenni Reid

9 Hours Ago

Major damage done to Conservatives by smaller parties, polling expert says

An exit poll predicting that Reform UK led by Nigel Farage will get 13 seats in Britain's general election is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4, 2024.

Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images

The scale of the projected Conservative loss stems from smaller parties' gains as well as Labour's challenge, polling expert John Curtice told the BBC.

The seat forecast shows how the national share of the vote has "moved decisively against the Conservatives," he said.

"Support for the Conservatives is falling much more heavily in places where they are trying to defend a seat than it is in places that Labour already hold," he said.

"It's not because Labour are doing spectacularly better in Conservative-held seats, it's because Reform are. Much of the damage done to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary."

Reform UK is the populist right-wing party led by Nigel Farage.

He also noted that although there has not been a massive rise in overall Liberal Democrat support, the party is doing better in seats where it was challenging the Conservatives, he continued, cautioning that the patterns shown by the polls may not be exactly accurate.

"Although it looks like an election in which Labour win a landslide, it does not follow that this necessarily means Labour have got a landslide in terms of votes," he told the BBC.

— Jenni Reid

9 Hours Ago

Scotland's SNP set to suffer huge loss of seats

The Scottish National Party is set to secure only 10 seat in British parliament, exit polls suggest — down from 48 seats in 2019.

It comes after a period of turbulence for the pro-Scottish independence party.

Former leader Humza Yousaf Yousaf resigned in April after serving as Scotland's first minister for a little over a year, taking over from longstanding leader Nicola Sturgeon, who announced her surprise resignation in February 2023. Sturgeon was being investigated by police as part of a probe into party finances, and her husband Peter Murrell was charged with embezzlement earlier this year.

John Swinney took over the party leadership earlier this year.

— Katrina Bishop

9 Hours Ago

Why this could be a historic election result

Members of the media look at the exit polls on TV at the Richmond and Northallerton count centre in Northallerton, north of England, on July 4, 2024 as polls close in Britain's general election. 

Darren Staples | Afp | Getty Images

The result of the 2024 U.K. general election is still in the realm of projection — but is being widely described as historic.

That's in part because of the likely electoral swing for the Labour Party. To win even a narrow majority, Labour needed a bigger gain in parliamentary seats than that achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Its projected 170 majority means it is on course to have seen an unprecedented upswing.

Exit polls put it on 410 seats, up from 202 in the most recent general election in 2019.

However, due to the rise of smaller parties, Labour may have achieved a smaller share of the vote than in 2017 under leader Jeremy Corbyn, when the party failed to win but narrowly prevented a Conservative majority.

Exit polls give the ruling Conservative Party just 131 seats, a slump from 365 in the last election and its lowest number in post-war history.

— Jenni Reid

9 Hours Ago

'This is a massacre'

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party leader Ruth Davidson speaks during a general election campaign visit to a removals depot in Edinburgh, Scotland, on June 5, 2017. Britain goes to the polls on June 8 to vote in a general election only days after another terrorist attack on the nation's capital.

BEN STANSALL | AFP | Getty Images

The former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, told Sky News the result was a "massacre" for her party. But she said that exit polls suggested it wasn't as bad as some had been expecting in the days leading up to the vote.

"There's no dressing this up, this has been .. this is a massacre — it is a massacre," she said.

-Matt Clinch

10 Hours Ago

Vote counting begins

Ballot papers are tipped out onto a table by counting staff at the counting centre at Emirates Arena as the UK general election count begins on July 4, 2024 in Glasgow, Scotland. 

Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The manual counting of millions of ballots has begun across the U.K.'s 650 constituencies, with the first results to be declared imminently and announcements continuing through the night until Friday morning.

— Jenni Reid

10 Hours Ago

Ruling Conservatives set to face a hammering: Exit poll

An exit poll predicting that the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer will win 410 seats in Britain's general election is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4, 2024. Labour is set for landslide win in UK election, exit polls showed. 

Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images

The U.K.'s incumbent Conservative Party had been expected to lose power in Thursday's election, but initial exit polls showed the staggering extent of the swing.

A poll conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News indicates the 650 seats of the House of Commons will be split approximately as:

Labour: 410
Conservatives: 131
Liberal Democrats: 61
Reform: 13
Scottish National Party: 10
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
Other: 19

In the 2019 election, the Conservatives won 365 seats to Labour's 202. The Lib Dems took 11 while Scotland's SNP won 48.

— Jenni Reid

10 Hours Ago

Exit poll points to landslide Labour victory

Exit polls released as voting closed in the election put Labour on course for a landslide victory, with the incumbent Conservatives facing a bruising defeat.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News, points to Labour winning 410 seats out of 650, with the Conservatives on 131. Smaller parties look set for major gains, with the Liberal Democrats on 61 and Nigel Farage's Reform UK on 13.

— Jenni Reid

9 Hours Ago

First seat of the election called for Labour

The first seat of the 2024 general election has been called for Labour in the constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South.

Bridget Phillipson, Labour's education chief, was declared the first member of the U.K.'s new parliament. She said that if exit polls were correct, "then after 14 years, the British people have chosen change."

Labour held the Houghton and Sunderland South seat, but the candidate for the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK party made a significant gain on its 2019 result (when it was called the Brexit Party), leapfrogging the Conservatives into second place.

Several constituencies in northern England race to be the first to declare in a general election.

In the 2017 and 2019 votes, Newcastle took that honor with announcements in less than 90 minutes of polls closing. Between 1992 and 2015, Sunderland was the first to declare its seat.

— Jenni Reid

10 Hours Ago

Big-name politicians hope to avoid 'Portillo moment'

British former politician Michael Portillo, speaking at the Conservative Party conference in 2000. The parliamentarian lost his seat in the 1997 U.K. general election in a shock defeat that became known as a "Portillo moment," indicating a swing in support to the opposing side.

Jeff Overs | Bbc News & Current Affairs | Getty Images

While an overall Labour victory has been forecast by pollsters, many seats are considered too close to call — including those of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt.

There are around 120 of 650 seats where the margin of victory is expected to be lower than 5 percentage points, according to a projection model from the Financial Times.

Well-known politicians will be seeking to avoid what in British political lingo has become known as a "Portillo moment." That is a reference to former Conservative politician Michael Portillo, who lost his seat in the 1997 general election to Stephen Twigg, his relatively unknown Labour opponent. Portillo, meanwhile, was a big name who had served as defense minister and was considered a potential future party leader.

The shock result was seen as emblematic of the swing in Labour's favor, as the party won a landslide under Tony Blair against incumbent Prime Minister John Major.

— Jenni Reid

10 Hours Ago

UK general election result in 2019

Under former Conservative leader Boris Johnson, the party won a majority of 365 seats in the last general election in 2019, to Labour's 202 seats.

Turnout was 67.3%.

By the time parliament was dissolved on May 30 this year in order for the July 4 election campaign to begin, a range of political developments had left that split at 344 Conservative lawmakers to 205 for Labour.

— Jenni Reid

11 Hours Ago

UK elects new parliament for first time in nearly five years

A woman walks past Roath Park polling station with her dog on July 4, 2024 in Cardiff, United Kingdom.

Matthew Horwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Millions of British citizens across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday voted for their local representative in the House of Commons, the U.K.'s lower branch of parliament.

In typical British fashion, the weather was changeable and unseasonably cool during the nation's first July general election since 1945.

The U.K. elects 650 Members of Parliament, known as MPs. According to longstanding convention, the prime minister is an MP appointed by the monarch who can "command the confidence" of the Commons — in practice, that is the leader of the party with the most seats.

Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer walks with his wife Victoria Starmer, as they arrive at a polling station to place their votes in the 2024 General Election.

Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Prospective MPs stand for election in one of the U.K.'s 650 constituencies. In a system known as "first past the post," voters may only choose a single candidate from their local list, and the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes an MP.

Unlike in other voting systems, there are no second rounds or ranking of first- and second-choice candidates, meaning it can be difficult for smaller parties to translate an increased share of the popular vote into parliamentary seats.

Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak arrives with his wife Akshata Murty to cast their votes at a polling station in Kirby Sigston, Northallerton, north of England.

Oli Scarff | Afp | Getty Images

Around 40,000 polling stations were open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Thursday, and one of the two main parties — Labour or the Conservatives — is expected to concede victory to the other sometime on Friday morning.

— Jenni Reid

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2024-07-05 06:58:00Z
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Tory big beasts fall: Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Jacob Rees-Mogg all lose their seats - Evening Standard

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2024-07-05 06:05:24Z
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Scotland's independence warriors smashed in UK general election - POLITICO Europe

Such a result would be a disaster for the SNP, which claimed that winning a majority of seats in this election would represent a fresh mandate for independence. The party’s embattled leader, John Swinney, will face questions about what such a reversal means for the party’s pro-independence dreams. 

“It’s a very poor result for the Scottish National Party tonight,” Swinney told the BBC. “There will be a lot of soul searching we will have to do as a party.”

“It’s going to be a f***ing rotten night for the SNP … the general picture is bleak,” said a former SNP adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

An SNP candidate, also speaking on condition of anonymity, argued that their party has “struggled to get a hearing in the national debate,” pointing to voters’ desire to get rid of the Conservative government.

Early results Friday indicated that the SNP is facing huge losses — mostly at the hands of a rejuvenated Scottish Labour Party.

Scottish Labour won in the Ayrshire seat of Kilmarnock and Loudoun, coming from a third place finish in 2019 to win ahead of the SNP. Scottish Labour repeated the trick in East Renfrewshire, with another third-to-first leap. 

Scottish Labour’s rise came as the SNP’s popularity in Scotland fell. The SNP has faced a series of scandals, alongside declining faith in its management of the devolved Scottish government. The party has also struggled to find a leadership figure with the same national profile as Sturgeon, who stepped down under a cloud in 2023. 

“To some extent people have fallen out of love with us and we must ask why,” Ian Blackford, the SNP’s former Westminster leader, told the BBC.

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2024-07-05 03:33:12Z
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