On Tuesday, the Prime Minister will declare that the election “is not a foregone conclusion” if 130,000 people were to switch their votes, because it would “deny Starmer that supermajority”.
The figures are based on analysis of a YouGov poll that suggested Labour would lose the entirety of its projected majority if that many voters turned away from the party.
It is the latest in a series of warnings from Mr Sunak not to hand Sir Keir Starmer a “blank cheque” on polling day.
On Tuesday, Mr Sunak will say: “The outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion. If just 130,000 people switch their vote and lend us their support, we can deny Starmer that supermajority.
“Just think about that: you have the power to use your vote to prevent an unchecked Labour government.”
The figure is based on analysis from The Times newspaper last month of a YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll, which uses survey results to predict results in individual seats.
The pollster predicted that Labour would win 425 seats, leaving the Conservatives trailing on 108.
But The Times found that Labour would lose its 200-strong majority entirely if only 132,000 voters in the most tightly fought constituencies voted for the second-place party instead.
Mr Sunak will add: “A huge number of seats in this election will be decided by only hundreds of votes.
“So, every vote we move will have an impact and make it more likely that your Conservative candidate is returned to Parliament so that they can be your voice, represent your values and stand up for you.”
Tory figures have urged voters not to turn their backs on the party in favour of Reform UK, which has surged in popularity since Nigel Farage assumed the role of leader.
On Monday, Mr Sunak insisted again that a vote for Reform would help to put Sir Keir into No 10.
The Conservatives have failed to significantly move the dial over the course of the election campaign, with polls still showing a strong double-digit lead for Labour.
Some polls have suggested that the Conservatives are headed for a wipeout, with a MRP for The Telegraph last month predicting that about three-quarters of the Cabinet could lose their seats.
The sources, allies of those on the Right of the party, hit back at suggestions that any contest should be delayed for months – perhaps as late as December – to allow the party to regroup.
They say such a move would “allow Starmer to have no opposition until January”.
There was also a backlash against any move to deny the membership a vote in the leadership election, with a source close to one candidate describing it as “insane”.
A source said: “The biggest winner would be Nigel Farage’s Reform party.”
Meanwhile, Mr Sunak suggested he would stay on as leader if the Conservatives were to lose on Thursday.
He told the BBC: “I love this party dearly and of course I’ll always put myself at the service of it and the service of my country.”
The meta we now take for granted. Events that take place purely because people expect events to take place. Hours of planning for each one. A venue to be booked. Activists to be bussed in to provide local colour. All of whom will become part of the background so we could be almost anywhere. The meta tipping into the surreal. Events that will be forgotten even before they are over. Unlikely to make much more than a 20-second clip on the rolling news channels.
But elections abhor a vacuum. Without a daily stream of events, the politicians would be lost. Lose their sense of purpose. Just imagine if none of the broadcasters turned up. It would throw everyone into a deeper than usual existential crisis. The crumbling of the fragile ego. Was anyone really here? Did it even happen? The metaphysical world would be in chaos.
All for that most elusive of creatures: the undecided voter. We all know they are out there somewhere. It’s possible that one or two may even have nothing better to do than watch Sky News round the clock and have caught the soundbite of the day. But would that really be enough to change anyone’s mind? Really?
After nearly six weeks on the election campaign, how likely is it that anyone will hear something they’ve heard countless times before and say to themselves: “That’s it. I’ve now made up my mind. Thank God that bloke kept repeating himself.” More realistically, these people will make up their minds on the day. How they vote will depend on how they feel once they are in the polling station. Here all the party leaders can hope is that somehow they’ve buried their message in the nation’s subconscious. The subliminal campaign.
So at a presentational level, all we’re left with is the symbolism. And in this, Keir Starmer’s lunchtime visit to a pub in rural Buckinghamshire came with flashing lights. When was the last time a Labour leader made a fleeting pit stop deep in the traditional Tory heartlands with just three days until the polls open? Or at any time during a campaign for that matter? Normally at this stage it’s all about shoring up the core vote.
Nor was this a one-off. Monday morning had started off in Hitchin and would end in a farm near Chipping Norton. No, not Jeremy Clarkson’s. Things aren’t quite that bad for the Tories yet. Though Rishi Sunak may not agree. Starmer planting his flag on Lord Big Dave’s back lawn is quite the fuck you. Who knows, maybe Sam Cam had suggested it herself. I’ve always suspected that her support for Big Dave was conditional. The only person left who thinks the Tories have a prayer is Michael Gove. And he’s out of his head on drugs. Whatever he’s taking, it’s best avoided.
Nor did the symbolism stop there. There was a time when Labour’s election planning was decidedly amateur hour. A bit endearingly like the Liberal Democrats. You’d all pitch up, no one would much care who you were or why you were there and the event would take on a laid-back feel.
Now the Labour operation runs a tight ship. First you get an operational note. You then get a second email confirming you have been accredited. But no location, so you can’t book a train or make travel arrangements. The venue will only be divulged at 6am on the day of the event. So you wake up at 6 only to get another email giving the nearest town but no more. The final destination will be sent later by dead letter drop. This for a bog standard stump speech lasting no more than 10 minutes. It’s almost as if they don’t want you there.
Not that the Labour staffers aren’t unfailingly polite and chatty when you do get there. We even get offered the Labour merch du jour. A pillow case with Sunak’s face alongside the slogan “Don’t wake up to five more years of the Tories”. The stuff of nightmares. The Brave New World starts here.
Labour is winning the ground war hands down. But there are strict rules. To wait where we are told to wait. Not to go wandering. The security is that tight. Five men with earpieces and who knows what else under their jackets. The police clearly think they are dealing with the next prime minister. Then, only the Govester doesn’t believe that.
The event starts with an introduction from Callum Anderson, the Labour candidate for the new constituency of Buckingham and Bletchley. He looks and sounds impressive. If slightly scarily on message. Even his dreams are Labour party-approved. He will be an asset in Westminster if elected. The choice is change or more of the same, he says. Which do we want?
“Change,” barks Snoopy the lakeland terrier.
“Quite right,” says Callum.
Though it was possible Snoopy may have been thinking of last night’s football. Starmer smiles. The football has been another part of his long-term planning. Persuade Gareth Southgate to get his squad to play like a bunch of halfwits for the first four games so everyone blames the Tories. Then switch into overdrive for the quarter-finals onwards. The Swiss don’t have a prayer. England only win trophies under a Labour government.
Then Keir takes over. Repeating the same stump speech he has been making for the last five and a half weeks. You know the drill. Cost of living. Tory chaos. You can only get change if you vote for it. Apart from Labour itself. That has managed to change precisely because no one voted for it. Fourteen years of division and chaos. Take nothing for granted.
There is even, for once, just a glimmer of hope in what he says. Normally he doesn’t allow this to creep in. Anything that the Tory media could portray as triumphalism is strictly off limits. It’s not over till it’s over. Obviously joy is a no-no. This isn’t an election in which anyone is meant to feel positive. What’s on offer is that things will be a little less shit than they otherwise would have been. That’ll do, I suppose. But we are now allowed some unenthusiastic hope. My kind of message.
Still, why interrupt your opponent when he’s making mistakes? Sunak appears to be in meltdown. Becoming less and less classy as time goes on. Now he’s just clutching at straws. Making up all sorts of nonsense that he knows to be untrue. The latest is that Starmer will appease Putin. Not even Rish! believes that. Not even willing to lose with grace. At this rate he will have no legacy left to protect.
Guardian Newsroom: Election results special. On Friday 5 July, 7.30pm-9pm BST, join Hugh Muir, Gaby Hinsliff, John Crace, Jonathan Freedland and Zoe Williams for unrivalled analysis of the general election results. Book tickets here or at theguardian.live.
A mum has been made the subject of an indefinite hospital order after she killed her two children. Veronique John, 50, also stabbed her partner following the incident but he survived his injuries.
John, of Stoke-on-Trent, was deemed unfit to plead by the court. She was subject to a trial of facts at Nottingham Crown Court which she did not participate in.
Police had been called to a car wash on Campbell Road, Stoke, following reports that a man had been stabbed on June 11 last year. Officers then travelled to a home on Flax Street where they found Ethan, 11, and Elizabeth, seven, with "significant injuries."
Both of the children were unresponsive and died at the scene. John was made the subject of an indefinite hospital order today (Monday, July 1).
She was unable to stand trial after the court determined she was unfit to do so, meaning that criminal proceedings were unable to continue. The jury concluded that Veronique John carried out the attacks on her two children and her partner.
Detective Chief Inspector Cheryl Hannan, from Staffordshire Police's Major Investigations Department, said: "This case was distressing for all involved, it was traumatic for the local community and has left so many people devastated by what happened.
"It’s not lost on me nor any of the officers that were involved in this investigation the lasting effect it will have on the many people that knew Ethan and Elizabeth, and the fond memories they have of them.
"My thoughts remain with their father, family and friends at such a tragic time both here and in other parts of the world. I’d also like to thank everyone from the local community who pulled together in such desperate times to help us investigate what happened and to provide as much support as possible for those affected."
A spokesperson for Staffordshire Police added: "The difference between a trial-of-facts and a criminal trial is that a jury does not need to decide if the person is guilty or not guilty, nor do they consider the mental state of the person involved. Instead, they are only asked to decide if the person involved committed the acts they have been charged with.
"If the subject was deemed to be fit to plead in the future, a trial would then be called."
A mayor in Tenerife has insisted police are continuing to investigate several lines of inquiry and defended the decision to call off the search for missing British teenager Jay Slater.
"The investigation that the Civil Guard is carrying out in this case has several lines of inquiry open," local Mayor Emilio Navarro told Sky News.
"It's not that the search has stopped. Maybe, yes, in the territory, the field search, but other lines are open."
The Civil Guard announced on Sunday their search of the mountainous area in northern Tenerife where Jay was last seen had ended.
It was less than two weeks after the teenager had been reported missing.
The Rural de Teno national park had been the focus of the hunt for Jay after he'd travelled to a nearby village with two British men after a night out.
His phone was last located in the area the following morning, on Monday 17 June. He'd called a friend to say his mobile was about to run out of battery.
Mr Navarro, who is mayor of Santiago Del Teide, defended the police against accusations the search was halted too soon, telling Sky News "a magnificent job has been done by the Civil Guard".
"Until last week, many resources were allocated to the search," he added.
He also denied the search had been hampered by online conspiracy theories about the disappearance of the teen from Lancashire.
"I believe that in this case the Civil Guard is very professional and they do not deviate from the investigation and what they have is quite clear and verified," Mr Navarro insisted.
Jay's family, who have travelled out to Tenerife, intend to stay and are waiting to hear what authorities plan to do now the active search has ended.
The Civil Guard has provided scant information on their enquiries.
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However, they did confirm they do not consider the two British men whom Jay stayed with on the night before he went missing were relevant to the investigation.
British climber and social media personality Paul Arnott was once again searching the mountainous terrain on Monday.
He has vowed to continue and has called the final police search on Saturday - which included a call for volunteers to join professionals - a "PR stunt".
However, police have said although the active search phase has ended the investigation into the disappearance continues.
A woman has been handed an indefinite hospital order after a jury ruled that she killed her two young children in a knife attack and stabbed her husband in the stomach.
Veronique John, 50, was not physically present at Nottingham Crown Court on Monday as a jury in a fact-finding hearing decided she was responsible for unlawfully causing wounds in attacks which the prosecution described as "almost too horrific to contemplate".
Her daughter Elizabeth, seven, was pronounced dead at her home in Stoke-on-Trent on 11 June last year, having suffered a fractured skull and knife wounds, while John's 11-year-old son, Ethan, suffered more than 20 sharp force injuries.
John, who has been diagnosed with complex post-traumatic stress disorder as well as personality and depressive disorders, was ruled unfit to enter a plea or take part in the trial.
She is currently being treated at Rampton high security hospital in Nottinghamshire and was seen wiping away tears with a tissue as she listened via a video link as judge Mr Justice Choudhury imposed the order.
The judge said the reason for the "abominable savagery" shown in killing the children appeared to be an attempt by John to "hurt" her husband.
He stated: "The facts of this case are almost too horrific to comprehend.
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"You claim that you are not a monster... but your acts were either those of a monster or someone who has lost all capacity to reason."
The trial of the facts hearing did not require jurors to return verdicts of guilty or not guilty on charges of murder and attempted murder, with the panel instead asked to decide whether John "did the acts alleged against her".
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After hearing evidence over five days, the jury took around 40 minutes to reach its unanimous decision.
The court was told John, originally from the Caribbean island of St Vincent, "erupted" into violence at her home because she did not want her husband, Nathan John, to have their children.
She then headed to a car wash where he worked to stab him in the stomach.
After returning home, John dialled 999 and told the operator: "I am calling to report I just killed my two kids."
The charity shop worker told police after her arrest: "If you have a gun shoot me. I am not a monster - he was going to take them from me."
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John, said to be boiling with rage after being arrested for assaulting her husband while suspecting him of having an affair, later stated in an interview: "It's something I was thinking about for a long time - just kill myself and the kids. Unless you guys are offering me the death penalty I have nothing else to say.
"I did it because I love my children - to protect the children. If there's any possible way I could be put to death, I would like that. When I say that, I am not joking. I mean it 100%."
She went on to claim that she could not remember anything about the nature or number of the injuries inflicted on the children.
Medical efforts to save the children, who both had neck wounds, were "futile" due to the severity of their injuries, the court heard.
The judge had ruled that John, who did not advance a defence of insanity, was unfit to plead after being told by psychiatrists that she was "mentally very unwell" and would be unable to follow the course of the proceedings.
In a victim impact statement read to the court by a barrister, Mr John stated his wife had "viciously and brutally" taken their two children's lives and said it was horrific that one of the siblings may have witnessed the other being "put to death in a beastly manner".
Mr John said his "whole world was turned upside down", adding: "I lost the two most important and precious persons in my life at once."
Teenager Jay Slater has been missing for two weeks and Tenerife police have ceased their active search efforts. This article delves into the six key pieces of evidence that have emerged, with a former detective opining that the case should have been approached as a homicide from the outset.
Jay, hailing from Oswaldtwistle, Lancashire, disappeared on the holiday isle of Tenerife since Monday, June 17. The young bricklayer was last spotted by his Airbnb host, and it's believed he missed his bus to meet friends in the island's south, a hotspot for British holidaymakers, after attending a music festival.
Spanish authorities have decided to end their search, having found no trace of Jay. Yet, his heartbroken relatives are determined to continue the hunt. Rachel Hargreaves, a close friend of Jay's mother, Debbie Duncan, who started a Facebook page to collate details about the missing youth, said: "We're still going to go out and search. No one is leaving until we find Jay. We stay, we do what we need to do."
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Below we have put together the crucial clues that have surfaced during the investigation, as reported by the Mirror. They include his last Snapchat, his injury and the people who spoke to him just before he disappeared.
Who was last to speak to Jay Slater?
Jay was last in contact with Lucy Mae, who said that he phoned her on the morning of his disappearance, expressing confusion and an urgent need for water, while also mentioning his phone battery was running out. In a statement on Jay's GoFundMe page, Lucy said: "On the last day of the festival, I left alone, earlier than everyone else, because I was tired from the weekend. I woke up to a phone call off Jay at 8.30am saying 'he was lost in the mountains, he wasn't aware of his surroundings, he desperately needed a drink and his phone was on 1%'.
"He had met two people on Sunday night and left with them to go to their apartment. Their apartment was miles away from civilisation and in a very secluded location. He left at 8am, and walked half an hour before frantically ringing me when his phone reached 1%. No one has seen or heard from him since."
Brad Hargreaves, another friend, also spoke about his last conversation with Jay. In an interview with Isla Traquair on This Morning, Brad relayed: "He was on the phone walking down a road and he'd gone over a little bit - not a big drop - but a tiny little drop and he was going down, and he said 'I'll ring ya back, I'll ring ya back' because I think someone else was ringing him. If he was thinking like me, he would have gone back up and started walking on the path again... He wouldn't have gone all that way down there."
Where is Jay Slater's phone now?
Utilising data from Jay's phone, detectives have been able to narrow down a specific location for the 19-year-old. Jay's phone died at approximately 8.50am on Monday morning near a hiking trail in Rural de Teno park. The Spanish Civil Guard is certain of this location, using it as their starting point for searches, they confirmed this in a press conference.
They stated: "We know to a certain science that he was here because the coverage of his phone its undeniable that he was around this point. And that's where we have difficulties, because once you turn off your phone, it can no longer be traced. So while he was walking - and we don't know how long he could have walked for - with his phone switched off, no antenna is going to pick that up. And the technology we have - it traces phones, but not people. We have certain clues, and we have to stick to those."
What were the threats to Jay Slater's mum?
On arriving in Tenerife just a day after Jay's disappearance, mum Debbie Duncan was subjected to disgusting prank calls and even death threats concerning her son. The origin of these messages is unclear, but uncovering them may be crucial to the family gaining some understanding of what happened to Jay.
55-year-old Debbie received a troubling Snapchat message insinuating she would never see her son again due to a large outstanding debt he supposedly had. Debbie shared: "There's no ransom demand come in yet but I got a Snapchat about 10 minutes after I got off the plane saying 'Kiss goodbye to your boy, you're never going to see him again, he owes me a lot of money'."
How did Jay Slater get injured?
Jay mentioned to his friend Lucy during a phone call that he had injured his leg on a cactus. Civil Guard officers indicated that this information prompted them to comb through a nearby ravine, which was in the vicinity of the last known location of Jay's mobile phone signal.
At a press briefing held at Mirador La Cruz de Hilda near the search area, officers shared: "Another thing that leads us to that conclusion is that when he was on the phone to Lucy, he got caught by a cactus and he was worried that they might be poisonous - she said, don't worry, it won't be poisonous - but for that, he had to have left the main road.
"If you were walking along the main road you wouldn't get pricked by a cactus. To do that, you would have had to have left the main road and be halfway up the mountain."
What was Jay Slater wearing when he vanished?
A Snapchat video captured just hours before Jay disappeared shows him having a good time in the Arona district of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The footage, recorded around 8.35pm on Sunday, June 16, by relative Isabelle Price, has been circulated in a Facebook group set up to aid in locating Jay, which boasts over 40,000 members.
Accompanying the video was the caption: "This is a clear video of what Jay was wearing the night he went missing. All of our family and friends are so worried, we're all just praying and hoping he gets found soon unharmed."
The final Snapchat sent from Jay Slater's phone
The final Snapchat photo from Jay shows a hand holding a cigarette, believed to be taken at a property in the Buenavista del Norte area around 7.30am on Monday. Given the puzzling circumstances, Lucy shared her confusion, stating: "I can't understand why he would come out of the house and then decide he was going to walk. I think he maybe set off walking with battery and had not realised how far the walk actually is."
Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak are set to begin a frantic final few days of campaigning as polling day rapidly approaches.
Both men will today reiterate their core messages as they try to motivate their backers to get out to the polling booths on Thursday.
The Labour leader will impress on the nation that if they want change they "have to vote for it" - while the Conservative leader will warn there are "four days to save Britain from a Labour government".
Mr Sunak has suggested that Labour are on track for a "supermajority", with the opposition having managed to maintain a roughly 20-point lead in the opinion polls, according to the Sky News Poll Tracker - something Sir Keir will do everything to ensure does not change.
The Liberal Democrats are set to continue their push to replace the Tories in seats that have traditionally been considered their heartlands - while the SNP will try to convince Scots to back them as polls show Labour could become the largest Scottish parliamentary contingent once again.
Mr Sunak is set to campaign in the Midlands today, where he will warn against giving "Keir Starmer and Labour a blank cheque".
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Speaking at a rally later, the prime minister will say of Labour: "If they get the kind of majority, the supermajority that the polls suggest, they will set about entrenching themselves in power.
"They will rewrite the rules to make it easier for them to stay in office and harder for anyone to replace them. So, don't surrender your voice to Labour on Thursday."
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Seemingly in a bid to limit the scale of the defeat, rather than emerge victorious, the Tory leader will say that "an unchecked Labour government would be a disaster from which it would take decades to recover".
"We Conservatives will stand up for you and make sure your voice is heard, your values represented."
The Conservative Party is also claiming today that Labour's immigration plans will result in a "deluge" of asylum seekers, leading to tax hikes of £635 per family each year - something a Labour spokesperson has branded a "ludicrous lie from an increasingly desperate Tory party".
The opposition claimed the Tories have "completely lost control of the asylum system or border security" and if they are re-elected "the chaos will continue and costs will soar further".
Labour win 'not inevitable' - Starmer
Labour will also vow to ensure petty theft is punished by scrapping a rule allowing people stealing goods worth under £200 to escape punishment, it is understood.
More broadly, the party will continue to make the wider case for change, with national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden saying: "If people don't want to wake up on 5 July to five more years of economic chaos, to wake up knowing that all the future offers is the same as the recent Tory past, then they have to vote Labour and vote for change on Thursday."
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12:24
Leader interviews: Labour Party
Sir Keir Starmer also hammered home that message in an interview with The Guardian, saying: "People talk about the inevitable outcome. It isn't inevitable. I think there's a yearning for change. But, you know, what we always say, if you want change, you have to vote for it."
He also told the paper "hope has been kicked out of many people" because of the Tories' failure to deliver, adding: "There's a near universal view that almost everything is broken, and we're going backwards as a country. That's very demoralising.
"They've also had to witness the politics of self-entitlement and self-enhancement from Westminster... I'm not surprised that people feel disaffected by politics. But we do have to restore it."
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Sir Keir expressed concern about the rise in support for the populist right across Europe, and for Reform in the UK.
"You have to understand why that's happening," he said. "It's based in this disaffection, this sense that politics cannot be a force for good, and you can't trust politicians."
He argued that progressive parties and governments could restore faith, however, saying: "That goes back to credible hope, deliverable hope, making the change that will be material for people's lives."
Lib Dems on bereavement payment cuts
First minister John Swinney will also be out on the campaign trail today, reiterating his core message that Scots need an "alternative" to Labour in Westminster to "represent Scotland's values".
The SNP leader said in a statement that the general election in England is a "foregone conclusion", with a Labour win on the cards, and claimed Sir Keir Starmer would "carry on with the same broken politics and right-wing policies as the Tories".
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1:30
Swinney pledges to continue push for indyref
He is arguing that the result in Scotland is on a "knife edge" - despite polls showing Labour in the lead - and that Sir Keir "simply represents more of the same broken Brexit Britain that does not reflect Scotland's values".
"The SNP is offering an alternative - a vision of hope with an end to austerity, rejoining the EU, eradicating child poverty and a future made in Scotland, for Scotland where Scotland's interests are always put first," said Mr Swinney.
"The only way to deliver that and put an end to the failure of Brexit which has caused so much damage to Scotland is to vote SNP on Thursday.
"Only the SNP offers Scotland the hope of a better future back in the EU - but we have to vote for it."
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18:32
Leader interviews: Liberal Democrats
Sir Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats will be continuing their bid to take seats off the Tories - and are promoting a pledge they launched yesterday to reverse "heartless Tory cuts" to bereavement payments.
On the latter as it stands, a bereaved family where a spouse or partner has died receives a lump sum of up to £3,500, followed by a monthly payment of up to £350 for 18 months.
The party is calling for this period to be extended, and is pledging to inject an additional £440m a year into the system by 2028-29 to fund it.
'Labour could take Wales for granted'
Plaid Cymru will be making their case to voters in Wales, arguing that the Welsh people will be "voiceless" if they do not have a "strong cohort" of MPs in Westminster.
The party's leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said Wales "simply doesn't feature" in Tory and Labour electoral plans, while his party would push for "fair funding deal for Wales".
"When people vote on Thursday, they expect their MP to speak up for them and their community, not to follow the Westminster whip at any cost," a statement said.
"We know that the Tories are finished and the contempt they show Wales is nothing new - but with Labour set to enter Downing Street on Friday, there is a real danger that they will simply take Wales for granted."
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10:03
Leader interviews: Plaid Cymru
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He added: "For a member of parliament who will always give Wales a voice in Westminster, who will always champion fairness and stand up against more cuts which have already devastated our public services, vote Plaid Cymru on 4 July."
Reform UK will also be on the campaign trail as the party tries to stabilise its campaign following racism allegations.
Yesterday, one of the party's candidates disowned them and backed the Tories, saying he had become "increasingly disillusioned" with the behaviour of the party and accused leader Nigel Farage of not taking it seriously.
It followed the controversy over a Reform canvasser who was caught making a racial slur about the prime minister in an undercover investigation.