Selasa, 16 Januari 2024

Boris Johnson and Tory deputy chair back rebellion as Sunak faces vote – latest - The Independent

Tory MP Simon Clarke vows to vote against Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda policy

Boris Johnson and two Tory deputy chairmen have backed the mounting rebellion over Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda immigration plan as the prime minister faces a crunch vote on the policy.

Almost 70 right-wing Conservative MPs have now signed the rebel amendments – to be debated and voted on today in the House of Commons – aimed at toughening the bill and curtailing asylum seekers’ rights to appeal against deportation flights to Kigali.

Former prime minister Mr Johnson has also announced his support for the uprising, while Conservative deputy chairmen Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith vowed to join the rebellion.

The ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick – who quit over the “weak” Rwanda bill and has led the rebel amendments – has also said he is prepared to vote against the government at Wednesday’s showdown vote.

However, any attempt by Mr Sunak to placate the rebels would be opposed by more moderate Tories, who are keen to protect the legislation against breaches of international law.

It comes as the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has concluded that the UK government’s new Rwanda bill is not compatible with international law following a legal assessment.

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‘Post Office gaslighted me and turned me into basket case for years’, says ex-subpostmaster

A former subpostmaster has accused the Post Office of “gaslighting” her and “turning her into a basket case”, an official inquiry heard.

Jo Hamilton, one of the many subpostmasters wrongly accused of theft, also criticised the red tape and bureaucracy involved in the Horizon scandal compensation schemes.

Giving evidence at the inquiry on Tuesday (16 January), she said: “After the court case I realised it wasn’t just me, it just makes you so angry. They gaslit me for about three years and pretty much turned me into a basket case.”

Lucy Leeson reports:

‘Post Office gaslighted me and turned me into a basket case for years’, says victim

A former subpostmaster has accused the Post Office of “gaslighting” her and “turning her into a basket case”, an official inquiry heard. Jo Hamilton, one of the many subpostmasters wrongly accused of theft, also criticised the red tape and bureaucracy involved in the Horizon scandal compensation schemes. Giving evidence at the inquiry on Tuesday (16 January), she said: “After the court case I realised it wasn’t just me, it just makes you so angry. They gaslit me for about three years and pretty much turned me into a basket case.”

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 13:30
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Sunak must deliver on Rwanda if Tories have any hope, says Rees-Mogg

Jacob Rees-Mogg said the government must “urgently” deliver on its immigration pledges, political correspondent Adam Forrest reports.

The former cabinet minister told his own GB News show that people voted in favour of Brexit to “regain sovereignty of our migration policy”.

“This hasn’t happened. People are feeling dissatisfied. There’s a Rwanda bill before parliament at the moment.

“The Tories need to deliver on this and deliver on this urgently if they are to have any hope of re-establishing trust with British voters.”

<p>Jacob Rees-Mogg said the government must ‘urgently’ deliver on its immigration pledges</p>

Jacob Rees-Mogg said the government must ‘urgently’ deliver on its immigration pledges

Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 13:16
1705410915

Co-founder of anti-torture network joins calls for MPs to stop ‘cruel’ bill

The co-founder of an anti-torture network has joined calls for MPs to put an end to the “cruel” Rwanda bill.

Kolbassia Haoussou, the Director of Survivor Leadership and Influencing at Freedom from Torture, said: "Just a few short months ago the Supreme Court ruled that Rwanda was unsafe for people like me. But today, the Government is ignoring all the important evidence, expertise, and testimonies that went into making this vital ruling.

"This Rwanda Bill is inhuman and puts the lives of the most vulnerable at serious risk. I’m calling on all MPs to stop this cruel scheme once and for all.”

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 13:15
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Another Tory rebel threatens to vote against Rwanda bill

Senior Tory rebel Sir John Hayes has told Times Radio that he would find it difficult to vote for the Rwanda bill if it is unamended, political correspondent Adam Forrest reports.

The leader of the Common Sense Group – often described as Suella Braverman’s mentor – said: “If the bill is unamended and not fit for purpose…it would be very difficult to vote for that wouldn’t it? I can’t see how you could.”

“I can’t see how having supported the amendments ... I don’t think having done all that, you can then say the bill, which we regard as imperfect, should be supported.”

It remains to be seen how many of the 70 or so MPs who have backed the amendments will feel the same way on Wednesday.

Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 13:07
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Watch: Fujitsu boss apologises for firm’s role in Post Office Horizon scandal

Fujitsu Europe director Paul Patterson has apologised to subpostmasters wrongly convicted during the Post Office Horizon IT scandal.

Appearing before the Business and Trade Committee on Tuesday (16 January), Mr Patterson said: “To the subpostmasters and their families, Fujitsu would like to apologise for our part in this appalling miscarriage of justice.

“We were involved from the very start. We did have bugs and errors in the system. And we did help the Post Office in their prosecutions of subpostmasters. For that we are truly sorry.”

Lucy Leeson reports:

Watch: Fujitsu boss issues apologises for firm’s role in Post Office Horizon scandal

Fujitsu Europe director Paul Patterson has apologised to subpostmasters wrongly convicted during the Post Office Horizon IT scandal. Appearing before the Business and Trade Committee on Tuesday (16 January), Mr Patterson said: “To the subpostmasters and their families, Fujitsu would like to apologise for our part in this appalling miscarriage of justice. “We were involved from the very start. We did have bugs and errors in the system. And we did help the Post Office in their prosecutions of subpostmasters. For that we are truly sorry.”

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 13:06
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Who are the ‘five families’ of the Tory party in Westminster?

Squabbling over the Rwanda bill has once again highlighted the remarkable number of factions within the parliamentary Conservative Party. Some in Westminster refer to the major groups as the “five families” of the party, though the number of sub-groups has mushroomed, particularly on the hard right. The most high profile in recent years has been the European Research Group, chaired by Mark Francois, which made menacing demands of Rishi Sunak about his proposed legislation, albeit they were pretty much ignored. All have one thing in common: a taste for plotting and intrigue amounting to addiction.

If the Conservatives go into opposition, these disputatious parties-within-a-party will become even more fractious; they are both symptom and cause of the splits that have so disfigured the Conservatives. Tory groups used to be dining clubs of like-minded chums (such as the “Blue Chips” in the 1980s – John Major and Chris Patten) or earnest researchers, such as the Bow Group or the Centre for Policy Studies. Nowadays, the politics are much more raw.

Here is a partial field guide to the different species of Tory MP...

Sean O’Grady16 January 2024 13:03
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Minister announces move to speed up court hearings in bid to win over Tory MPs

Rishi Sunak’s justice secretary Alex Chalk said he has asked more judges to be appointed to the first-tier and upper tribunal to speed up courts dealing with migrant appeals, political correspondent Adam Forrest reports.

The cabinet minister told the Commons that recruitment would “conclude in the next few months and new judges will be appointed, trained and start sitting from this summer”.

The judiciary has identified judges which could provide 5,000 additional sitting days while extra space had been prepared, making a total of 25 courtrooms available for hearings.

In a written ministerial statement, Mr Chalk said: “We are confident that, with the additional courtroom and judicial capacity detailed above, in line with projected levels agreed with the Home Office, the vast majority of Illegal Migration Act appeal work will be dealt with by the courts in an expedited manner.”

But right-wing Tory rebels are unimpressed. Robert Jenrick has just told Sky News it “won’t wash”. Miriam Cates has told the BBC: “I’m afraid all that shows is that the government is expecting a large number of individual claims.” And Simon Clarke said: “This proves the extent of the problem the bill as drafted will create.”

Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 13:03
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Bates says ‘everyone will be surprised’ about how much Post Office and Government knew

The public will be “surprised about how much was known early on” by the Post Office and the Government about what was going wrong with the Horizon system, former subpostmaster Alan Bates has said.

Appearing before the Business and Trade Committee on Tuesday (January 16), the former subpostmaster who has led the campaign for justice said it is for the inquiry to establish the level of Fujitsu’s culpability.

“My gut feel on this, having looked at lots of paperwork over the years, is how much did the Post Office really know in the early days and how much did government really know in the early days about what was happening at Fujitsu?

“I think everyone’s going to be surprised about how much was known.”

Lucy Leeson reports:

Alan Bates says ‘surprising’ how much Post Office and Government knew about scandal

The public will be “surprised about how much was known early on” by the Post Office and the Government about what was going wrong with the Horizon system, former subpostmaster Alan Bates has said. Appearing before the Business and Trade Committee on Tuesday (January 16), the former subpostmaster who has led the campaign for justice said it is for the inquiry to establish the level of Fujitsu’s culpability. “My gut feel on this, having looked at lots of paperwork over the years, is how much did the Post Office really know in the early days and how much did government really know in the early days about what was happening at Fujitsu? “I think everyone’s going to be surprised about how much was known.”

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 13:00
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Robert Jenrick ‘prepared’ to vote against Rwanda bill

The ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick – who quit over the “weak” Rwanda bill – has said he is prepared to vote against the government at Wednesday’s showdown vote.

The hardliner, who has led the rebel amendments, told Sky News: “I am prepared to vote against the bill... because this bill doesn't work, and I do believe that a better bill is possible.

Mr Jenrick said: “So the government has a choice. It can either accept my amendments ... or it can bring back a new and improved bill, and it could do that within a matter of days because we know the shape of that bill.”

He added: “The opportunity here is immense. Let’s not waste it by creating a scheme that is like a bucket riddled with holes.”

In a last-ditch attempt to calm hardliners’ concerns, the PM will draft in 150 judges and free up courtrooms in order to speed up migrant appeals

But Mr Jenrick said it would “not wash” with Tory rebels, calling it an “implausible suggestion from the government, which was raised at the 11th hour”.

Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 12:56
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Tory rebel MPs in the ‘five families’ set to meet again

Tory MPs in various right-wing groups – the so-called “five families” – are meeting at 5pm to discuss whether to vote for the Rwanda bill on Wednesday, reports GB News.

There was a flurry of such meetings before the bill passed its first reading before Christmas. Senior figures in the European Research Group, New Conservatives, the Commons Sense Group, the Northern Research Group and No Turning Back get together to discuss the latest thinking.

But in the end, Tory MPs tend to do their own thing. So it is not clear whether 29 of them are really prepared to vote against the government at the crucial third reading – a move so radical it could hasten the end of the Sunak government.

Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 12:47

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2024-01-16 13:16:35Z
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Firm behind computer system at heart of Post Office scandal says it has 'moral obligation'' to contribute to compensation for victims - Sky News

The boss of Fujitsu has apologised for the Horizon scandal and said the company has a "moral obligation" to contribute to the compensation scheme for victims.

Paul Patterson, director of Europe's Fujitsu Services Limited, told a committee of MPs that he was sorry on behalf of the company, which developed the faulty IT software that ruined the lives of hundreds of sub-postmasters.

Between 1999 and 2015, more than 700 Post Office branch managers were handed criminal convictions after discrepancies in the Horizon system made it appear as though money was missing at their stores.

at the heart of hundreds of wrongful convictions.

"Fujitsu would like to apologise for our part in this appalling miscarriage of justice," Mr Patterson said.

"We were involved from the very start.

"We did have bugs and errors in the system and we did help the Post Office in their prosecutions of the sub-postmasters and for that we are truly sorry."

More from UK

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MPs quiz Fujitsu - after admission of 'bugs and errors'

Mr Patterson said he did not know exactly when bosses first knew of issues related to the Horizon IT software, but that it had bugs at a "very early stage".

He went onto say that the company has a "moral obligation" to contribute to the compensation scheme for those affected by the scandal - many of whom lost their homes and were financially ruined.

He said that he has spoken to the company's bosses in Japan and it expects to have a conversation with the government about how much compensation it should pay.

Mr Patterson has been in his current role since 2019 but has worked for Fujitsu since 2010.

Asked if staff knew before 2010 that there were bugs in the system, he said that was for the inquiry into the scandal to establish - but his "gut feeling" is that this was the case.

He acknowledged the firm gave evidence which helped send innocent people to prison.

He added: "The information shared with the Post Office as part of our contract with them was very clear - the Post Office also knew there were bugs and errors."

Mr Patterson said he did not know why the company didn't act when it knew there were glitches in the system.

"I don't know, I really don't know," he said.

"On a personal level I wish I did and following my employment in 2019, I've looked back on those situations for the company and from the evidence I've seen, I just don't know."

Mr Patterson is appearing alongside Post Office boss Nick Read as public and political anger continues over the Horizon scandal in the wake of the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs the Post Office, which documented the sub-postmasters' 20-year fight for justice.

Mr Read acknowledged it is possible that some of the money taken from Horizon scandal victims went into pay for Post Office executives.

But he said the company has not "got to the bottom of the nub of what was going on" with that cash.

Earlier Alan Bates and other campaigners who the drama was centred on blamed red tape and bureaucracy on delays for subpostmasters accessing compensation.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive Breaking News alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News App. You can also follow @SkyNews on X or subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

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2024-01-16 12:30:59Z
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General election: Labour would need record swing to win - BBC

Boundaries index promo image

The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.

The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.

An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.

That's considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945.

The swing from the Conservatives to Labour would need to be uniform, to follow the same pattern everywhere, with other parties seeing no change in performance since 2019.

In practice, the picture will be more complicated, so this is a rough guide. But a uniform national swing has been a reliable model for general elections in the UK over a long period of time.

Boundaries changed

Changes to the political map ahead of the next general election mean constituencies will be new or different from the last general election for millions of people.

The boundary changes could have an impact on who becomes the local MP and which party wins the UK's election overall.

You can use our tool to find out which constituency you are now in.

It will also give you an estimate of what the result would have been had these new boundaries been in place at the last general election, in 2019.

Please use a modern browser to see the article in its intended form.

If you cannot see the lookup click here.

The research - by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher along with David Denver in Scotland and Nicholas Whyte in Northern Ireland - also reveals which seats are likely targets for the main parties at the next election.

Under the changes, some constituencies will become safer for the party that holds them; others will become more at risk.

For example, Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves won her Leeds West constituency with a healthy majority of 10,564 over the Conservative candidate in 2019.

Next time that will be the newly-drawn Leeds West and Pudsey seat, with a slimmer "notional" majority of 2,963.

The seat of Ben Wallace, Conservative MP and former defence secretary, was abolished in the changes. He will stand down at the next election.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will contest the new constituency of Godalming & Ash after his old South West Surrey seat was split in two.

Notional figures are an estimate of what the result would have been if everyone voted in the same way as they did in 2019. The estimate draws on local election results in individual council wards over several years.

It is a rough guide - but it is all the parties have to go on when they are deciding where to focus campaigning. They have to identify the "target seats" where they have a realistic chance of making gains.

The top new target seats are:

Your device may not support this visualisation

What would the election result have been in 2019?

Overall, the boundary changes modestly favour the Conservatives, the party in government now. The areas with new seats are mostly ones that tend to elect Conservative MPs.

The 372 seats notionally won by the Conservatives is seven more than they actually won in 2019.

Labour are notionally down two seats, the Lib Dems down three and Plaid Cymru down two. Other parties' totals are unaffected.

In Northern Ireland, the changes are fairly minor. All of the constituencies are keeping the same names and none of them switch parties as a result of boundaries being redrawn.

Table showing the result of the 2019 election had the new boundaries been used; with Conservatives on 372 up seven on the actual result in 2019, Labour 201 down 2, SNP 48 no change, Lib Dems 8 down 3, DUP 8 no change, SInn Fein 7 no change, Plaid Cymru 2 down 2, SDLP 2 no change, Green 1 no change and Alliance 1 no change

What could happen next time?

There is always a lot of talk about "swing" at election time. This is a measure of how voter support for parties has changed between elections, written as a percentage.

Any swing to the Conservatives would see them win another big majority.

A swing of 4.2% to Labour would deprive the Conservatives of their majority.

An 8.3% swing would see Labour become the largest party in a hung Parliament - where no party has a majority.

For an overall majority, Labour need a 12.7% swing.

In reality, things will be more complicated. The presence of parties such as the SNP, the Lib Dems and Reform UK mean it's not just a two horse race.

Why are boundaries changing?

Boundaries are changing to make sure each constituency, with a few exceptions, has approximately the same number of voters.

Boundary reviews are supposed to happen every few years. But previous ones have been cancelled so this is the first time changes have happened since 2010 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 2005 in Scotland.

Which seats are new?

To reflect population shifts, there will be extra seats in the south and east of England and fewer in the north and West Midlands. Scotland loses two constituencies and Wales loses eight as the number of voters in Welsh constituencies is being brought into line with the rest of the country.

Some seats will be pulled together from several old constituencies. In Oxfordshire, the new Bicester & Woodstock is made up parts of Banbury, Witney, Oxford West & Abingdon and Henley.

Your device may not support this visualisation

In Glasgow it's the opposite story. The total number of seats is being reduced from seven to six as Glasgow Central disappears into other areas.

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How will we know how it's going on election night?

Normally, election analysts start to work out how parties are doing on election night by comparing the results with last time. Boundary changes make that harder.

So academics work out what the results would have been had the new boundaries been in place before.

The estimates will never be perfect but these notional results provide the best available guide.

The BBC and other media organisations will use them to calculate gains and losses, and the swing in votes.

Download the analysis

Lookup and graphics produced by Wesley Stephenson, Callum Thomson, Jana Tauschinski, Libby Rogers, Steven Connor, Assiz Pereira, Arun Bhari, Preeti Vaghela, Debie Loizou, and Holly Frampton

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2024-01-16 05:04:22Z
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Met Office issues snow and ice warnings as temperatures plunge below freezing - The Independent

Snow and ice covers UK towns as cold blast continues to disrupt travel

Multiple snow and ice warnings are in place across the UK until the end of this week as the country faces temperatures plummeting to below-freezing.

A “cold plunge of Arctic air” has moved south across the whole country over the past few days, making it 5C-6C lower than usual for this time of year, the Met Office said.

The forecaster has issued yellow warnings for snow and ice covering large swathes of the northern half of the UK until Thursday, as the country faces travel disruption and power cuts.

Northern and eastern parts of Scotland saw the “bulk of the snow” on Monday, with 15cm on the ground at Aberdeen Airport by the evening.

Met Office forecaster Craig Snell said by Tuesday there could be a “persistent band of snow” over three to six hours across Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England and Wales.

He continued: “In the early hours of the morning, we’re looking at temperatures getting down to -12C in a few spots, Tuesday night possibly down to -15C. So certainly a very cold spell into Wednesday.”

1705400124

Schools forced to close as Artic blast causes coldest night

Some parts of northern England, including Merseyside, woke to snow on Tuesday morning, with outbreaks of sleet and snow forecast to become more persistent during the day.

Holly Evans reports:

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 10:15
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London Fire Brigade issues warning over hypothermia risk

London Fire Brigade has issued a warning this morning, urging people to take extra care when walking near water due to the risk of hypothermia amid the freezing cold weather.

It wrote on social media: “Frozen ponds and lakes may look sturdy enough to stand on, but they often aren't. If you fall into icy water, the risk of hypothermia is high. Stay off the ice and keep dogs on leads.”

The Brigade offers the following advice to people managing the effects of cold water shock:

  • Take a minute. The initial effects of cold water pass in less than a minute so don’t try to swim straight away.
  • Relax and float on your back to catch your breath.
  • Try to get hold of something that will help you float.
  • Keep calm then call for help or swim for safety if you’re able.
Tara Cobham16 January 2024 09:45
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Met Office forecast for this morning

The Met Office has forecast increasingly “persistent” sleet and snow outbreaks in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England this morning.

The forecaster added that brighter spells are expected in Wales and southern and central England, with some crisp winter sunshine.

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 09:15
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Yellow warning for snow and ice in place for large swathes of UK

A yellow warning is in place for snow and ice across Scotland, much of northern England and parts of north Wales until midnight on Tuesday, as well as for Northern Ireland until 11am.

The warnings continue across large swathes of the northern half of the country until Thursday.

<p>A vehicle clears snow near the Kelpies in Falkirk</p>

A vehicle clears snow near the Kelpies in Falkirk

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 08:50
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In pictures: Snow blankets Liverpool overnight

<p>Snow falls at Hunt Cross station, Liverpool</p>

Snow falls at Hunt Cross station, Liverpool

<p>Snow falls on the Beatles Statue at Pier Head, Liverpool</p>

Snow falls on the Beatles Statue at Pier Head, Liverpool

<p>Fresh snow covers the roads and footpaths during snowfall in Lee Park, Liverpool</p>

Fresh snow covers the roads and footpaths during snowfall in Lee Park, Liverpool

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 08:20
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Arctic air plunging much of country into another cold day

Much of Britain is facing another day of cold temperatures and travel disruption after overnight lows dropped below freezing for the bulk of the country.

The Met Office said heavy snow is possible across northern areas on Tuesday, especially in Scotland and overnight in Northern Ireland, with the rest of the country seeing a cold, dry day ahead of a widespread, severe frost in the evening.

A yellow warning is in place for snow and ice across Scotland, much of northern England and parts of north Wales until midnight on Tuesday, as well as for Northern Ireland until 11am.

Rob Freeman reports:

Tara Cobham16 January 2024 07:45
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Snow showers merging into longer spell of snow could cause further disruption on Tuesday

Parts of Scotland, northern England including Manchester, and northern Ireland are all expected to be hit. The warnings are in place for the whole of Tuesday, and expanded areas in the north east including Newcastle which are expected to be impacted on Wednesday.

  • Possible travel delays on roads stranding some vehicles and passengers
  • Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage
  • Possible delays or cancellations to rail and air travel
  • A chance of injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
  • Some rural communities could become cut off
Maira Butt16 January 2024 07:01
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Cold-health alert in place for England

Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, said: “The temperatures we will see can rapidly have a serious impact on the health of those over the age of 65 and those with pre-existing health conditions as it increases the risk of heart attacks, strokes and chest infections.

“It is therefore vital to check in on friends, family and neighbours to ensure they are well prepared for the cold weather this week.”

Maira Butt16 January 2024 06:34
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Met Office warns of ‘very cold start’ to Tuesday morning for Brits

Meteorologist Alex Burkill said about Tuesday’s weather: “Temperatures really are going to drop, a widespread frost for many places and that will also bring the risk of some icy patches too.

“Perhaps the lowest temperatures likely to be across parts of Scotland where we have lying snow. We could see temperatures here dropping into negative double figures, so a very cold start on Tuesday morning for many of us.”

Maira Butt16 January 2024 06:01
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Parts of the UK to see up to 20cm of snow where chance for ‘significant disruption'

Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said: “There is the potential for a system to track its way across, bringing some more persistent, rain, sleet and significant snow initially across parts of northern Ireland, perhaps northern England, but more likely across parts of Scotland.

“That’s where we have the greatest chance for significant disruption because of some persistent snow. There is a good chance we could see accumulations of 10cm plus and perhaps 20cm across higher ground, so some disruption is quite likely.”

Maira Butt16 January 2024 05:01

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2024-01-16 09:40:49Z
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Rishi Sunak’s revised Rwanda plan still illegal, says UN refugee agency - The Guardian

Rishi Sunak’s revised Rwanda plan is still in breach of international law, the UN’s refugee agency has said.

The warning came amid a mounting revolt by Conservative MPs threatening to vote against the bill. They drew on a poll believed to be funded by rightwing opponents of Sunak’s leadership. It found his constituency was one of 111 where voters wanted asylum seekers removed without right of appeal.

The prime minister faces a Conservative meltdown over the Rwanda deportation bill after two deputy chairs said on Monday night they would support rebel amendments aimed at blocking international human rights laws.

Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith have defied Sunak by backing rightwing challenges to the bill, which will be debated by parliament on Tuesday.

But in a fresh blow to the prime minister, the UN high commissioner for refugees (UNHCR) said the Rwanda bill and recently signed treaty with Kigali was not compatible with international refugee law.

In a new assessment of the plan, which the government revised after the UK’s supreme court in November described the policy as “unlawful”, the UN body said it “does not meet the required standards relating to the legality and appropriateness of the transfer of asylum seekers and is not compatible with international refugee law”.

It added: “As of January 2024, UNHCR has not observed changes in the practice of asylum adjudication that would overcome the concerns set out in its 2022 analysis and in the detailed evidence presented to the supreme court.

“The treaty lays out an important basis for an improved asylum system, but until the necessary legal framework and implementation capacity is established, the conclusion of the treaty in itself does not overcome continued procedural fairness and other protection gaps.”

Conservative divisions continued to play out on Tuesday morning. Robert Jenrick, who resigned last month as immigration minister, used an article in the Daily Telegraph to accuse others of trying to “smear” amendments he had put forward on the Rwanda legislation “by saying I advance a fringe rightwing opinion”.

The MP, who has tabled a number of amendments including one that would block the most “suspensive claims” by people against their removal, said opponents should “note” poll findings published in the Telegraph.

The results – a day after another poll showing the Tories were on course for an election wipeout and which was dismissed by the Conservative leadership as the work of individuals intent on “undermining” the party – found that in 310 of the 361 seats in England and Wales Labour is set to win, the policy he advocated was the favoured option.

The poll was commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance, a previously unknown organisation described only as a “group of Conservative donors”.

Miriam Cates, another prominent rightwing backbencher, also referenced the poll in an interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday morning to bolster her case and made it clear she was prepared to vote down the bill.

“When people hear these long arguments about areas of contested law, it doesn’t look like we are performing the will of the people. What is not contested is that we need secure borders,” she said.

Government insiders still believe they will get the committee stage of the bill through on Tuesday without amendment, although the key third reading vote on Wednesday is a steeper challenge as it would take just 29 Tory MPs to rebel, or 57 to abstain, for it to fail.

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2024-01-16 09:13:00Z
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Senin, 15 Januari 2024

YouGov MRP shows Labour would win 1997-style landslide if election were held today - YouGov

Keir Starmer would be sitting on a 120-seat majority

A new YouGov MRP model, commissioned by Conservative Britain Alliance and released in The Telegraph last night, shows that Labour would win a large majority were the election to be held today.

The results of the model, which uses data from 14,110 respondents answering between 12 December and 4 January, would see Keir Starmer enter Downing Street having secured a 120-seat majority, with Labour winning 385 Commons seats. This would be a 183-seat increase for the party since the last election.

The Conservatives meanwhile would slump to just 169, losing 196 seats compared to 2019.

These results are reminiscent of the 1997 general election outcome, which saw Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats and John Major’s Conservatives took 165.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats would receive 48 seats – also similar to their 1997 haul – making them a notable Parliamentary force once again. The SNP, meanwhile, would fall to 25 seats, with Labour making significant gains in the central belt.

The Greens would hold on to their Brighton Pavilion seat, without making any further gains – although they come incredibly close in Bristol Central at 38% to Labour’s 40%. It is possible that by election day the party will have done enough to convince voters in the area to give them a shot.

Reform UK would fail to win any seats, as the Brexit Party and UKIP did in 2019 and 2017 respectively.

This MRP is our first since new parliamentary constituency boundary proposals have been finalised. While this is the first time an election will be fought using these constituencies, notional results calculations allow us to see what the outcome in each seat would have been if the last election had used those boundaries, and therefore which seats would be changing hands.

Most notably this includes chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, which is narrowly won by the Liberal Democrats in this model. Other cabinet casualties include Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Welsh secretary David TC Davies (Monmouthshire), attorney general Victoria Prentis (Banbury), and veterans minister Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View).

Conservative party chairman Lee Anderson would also lose his Ashfield seat to Labour, and Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge constituency would likewise fall to Labour.

Notes on the Daily Telegraph’s analysis

The Daily Telegraph wrote that “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”. This is somewhat of a red herring. There is a sum using certain notional results whereby the estimated Labour share looks like a mean of a four point rise on their 2019 performance. However, this is not the correct way to look at either implied national changes nor what is happening at the constituency level.

If we aggregate up all our constituency level figures and then weight them according to likely voter population, the headline vote intention figures come out at the following:

Labour 39.5%, Conservatives 26%, Lib Dems 12.5%, Reform 9%, Greens 7.5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 0.5%, Others 2%.

A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact.

Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency.

Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data.

Methodology

YouGov interviewed 14,110 adults across the country between 12th December 2023 and 4th January 2024. Constituency-level forecasts were estimated using the same method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections. MRP constituency forecast models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, ‘which party would you vote for if a general election were being held tomorrow' – in a ‘multilevel model’. It then uses data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). In this instance, 500 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the constituency probabilities. The multilevel model was estimated through 12,000 iterations. Turnout likelihood for each voter group was estimated using a multilevel model on British Election Study data. The precise multilevel model equation has been benchmarked to correctly estimate the 2019 General Election to within a couple of seats of each party’s actual performance in that election, and the overall approach to MRP by YouGov has been used to successfully predict elections as recently as Spain in July 2023.

See the full results here

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2024-01-15 12:16:00Z
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