In a parallel, “partygate”-free existence, Boris Johnson would be kicking back at Chequers today, enjoying his country retreat, relaxing in the knowledge that he had set the nation on a path “back to normality” by removing all Plan B Covid-19 restrictions.
Having seen the pandemic dominate his premiership, the decision to strip back the remaining rules should have been totemic. But such is the peril the Prime Minister finds himself in, it barely registered.
Instead, Mr Johnson is spending his weekend frantically holding meetings with MPs in a bid to shore dwindling support following the most politically precarious week of his career. Mr Johnson’s immediate future “is on a knife edge”, as one senior backbencher puts it.
The threat of more letters of no confidence being submitted next week dangles over him, as he awaits the outcome of Sue Gray’s report into Downing Street “gatherings” that appear to have breached Covid-19 rules.
Some Tory MPs are so concerned about their leader’s plight that they view Vladimir Putin and Gavin Williamson as potential saviours.
The week began with little hint of what was to come. Returning from their constituencies on Monday, MPs had complained about ear-bashings from constituents over numerous No 10 parties. But the PM’s team did not detect any imminent threat.
All that was about to change.
In his first public appearance after emerging from isolation, Mr Johnson gave an excruciating 16-minute interview from Finchley Memorial Hospital in London, during which he attempted to appear contrite, only to make himself look more culpable.
One former senior No10 insider said the interview was exactly the type of unforced error that the PM and his team needs to eradicate if he is to have any chance of surviving.
“You have to try and limit the mistakes,” the source said. “How the hell did he end up on camera for 16 minutes? That’s a f***-up. It may have been alright if he answered the same question three times, but not 20 times.”
That calamitous TV appearance lit the Westminster powder keg. By the afternoon it emerged that about 20 MPs from the 2019 intake had been holding a meeting on how to oust the PM over his handling of the “bring your own bottle” party scandal.
Dubbed the “pork pie plotters” – as they met in the office of Alicia Kearns, MP for Rutland and Mowbray, the home of the Melton Mowbray pork pie – several of the group had agreed to hand in their letters of no confidence in their leader.
This prompted feverish speculation that the magic number of 54 letters needed to trigger a confidence vote was imminent.
The irony was that it took the defection of the Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford to Labour on Wednesday to diffuse matters.
“Wakeford certainly helped,” one backbencher said, looking back. This was despite the best efforts of David Davis who used Prime Minister’s Questions to tell Mr Johnson: “In the name of God, go.”
But the intervention from the former Brexit secretary further united the party, as one senior minister hissed: “If anyone has been sat there too long it’s him.”
Having been afforded a stay of execution, Mr Johnson and his team have kicked into survival mode, tearing up the PM’s weekend diary to try to convince more MPs not to submit their letters to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the influential 1922 Committee.
But according to one of Theresa May’s closest allies, who helped her to cling on to power for two years despite repeated attempts to bring her down, more is needed.
They recommend winning MPs round with promises to spend big in their seats, while Downing Street should also be asking for extra reports on Parliament, and demanding the PM’s senior team take regular soundings of MPs.
“The last thing No10 can do now is allow a gap to open up between itself and the rest of the party. So more meetings, get better political intelligence – all of that. But the truth is you are not in control anymore,” the former No10 fixer added.
“A lot of this stuff becomes quite pork-barrel. There are a lot of infrastructure projects that are in the manifesto that haven’t got locations yet. People will be offered new schools, new hospital wings, rail upgrades.”
But far from offering sweeteners, it emerged on Thursday that several MPs involved in the plotting were being intimidated, even “blackmailed”, with Mr Wakeford alleging he was told a new school for his constituency would go if he rebelled last year.
One senior backbencher said the pork-pie plotters were being “singled out for a punishment beating”.
“But they [the rebels] were incredibly stupid to go about it the way they did,” the source added.
The handling of the whipping operation and the failure of Downing St to get a grip has led to mounting calls from both inside and outside government for a clear-out of the No 10 team.
One Whitehall source was incandescent over the state of Mr Johnson’s inner circle, claiming it had lost all credibility. “It is just not functioning properly,” the source close to the Cabinet said. “It’s an unhappy ship, and no one believes a word they say any more.
“The whole strategy is just completely missing. Ever since this started to break before Christmas, there has been no plan to get ahead of it. Where was the communication plan over Christmas to shift the agenda? There has to be a clear-out. Where have all the grown-ups gone?”
A Johnson loyalist suggested to i that Gavin Williamson, sacked last year as Education Secretary, should be reinstalled as chief whip: “I think the whips have to take a lot of the blame for this. Putting Gavin in there will do a lot to help things.”
Such is the desperation in the Tory ranks, that another MP hopes that Mr Johnson could be saved, or at least delayed, by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the potential invasion of Ukraine.
“Russia will be the distraction,” the backbencher said. “I think the gap between people moaning and putting a letter in is huge. I just remember letters against May and it took forever.”
The number of letters in Sir Graham’s vault may not be as close to the threshold as many think, with much depending on how Sue Gray’s report lands.
The results of the inquiry could come as early as Tuesday, with many MPs preferring to wait until they see the report before deciding to hand in their letter. As many as two dozen more are preparing to put one in.
The precarious position has led to calls for calm from more seasoned MPs, who warn a leadership challenge is “not in the national interest”.
Others have cautioned that none of the potential leadership rivals are ready to take over from Mr Johnson, a suggestion branded as “bullshit” by one salty backbencher.
“Jeremy Hunt has been through a leadership election two years ago, he’s been health secretary, he’s been foreign secretary,” the MP said.
They added that Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wants a leadership election “as soon as possible” as it suits her.
When a challenge is triggered, it could be quick.
“If there’s a confidence vote he’ll lose,” one backbencher said. “People will be worried, more and more will come out and just want to draw a line under it and say enough is enough.”
One veteran Tory asked: “Why is he [the PM] still hanging on? What is in it for him? He has complained about having no money, he has a young family. He delivered Brexit, he’s steered us through Covid-19, why doesn’t he just resign with a little dignity?”
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2022-01-22 06:00:00Z
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