Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party must win at least one of the two by-elections this week to keep their general election hopes alive, a leading polling expert has suggested.
Professor Sir John Curtice said it would be “rather useful” for the Tories to hang onto either Tamworth or Mid Bedfordshire “in terms of keeping the flame of hope alive” that they can defeat Labour at the next national contest.
The Tories are defending a majority of more than 24,000 in Mid Bedfordshire and more than 19,000 in Tamworth.
But Labour, riding high in national opinion polls with a steady double digit lead over the Tories, are hoping to deliver an upset when voters go to the ballot box in the two constituencies on Thursday.
Sir John told the Daily Mail: “I think we expect a fairly substantial fall in the Conservative vote in both constituencies. But whether that will result in the Conservatives losing either or both seats is uncertain. The best that the Tories can hope for in Tamworth is to hang on narrowly and the best they can hope for in Mid Bedfordshire is that the opposition vote is split.”
He added: “If the Tories hang on to one of the two seats, certainly in terms of keeping the flame of hope alive among the parliamentary party [for the next election], that would be rather useful. But losing them both, given the difficulties for the opposition of winning these two seats, would be a bad night.”
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2023-10-16 08:45:08Z
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