Key moments
It is hard to think of a time in recent years when a set of midterm local elections has been so consequential. From the North and Midlands, to London and the South, Scotland and Wales, today’s date with the ballot box represents a critical juncture that could determine Boris Johnson’s future.
For the Conservatives, it will be the first significant test of public opinion since the Downing Street parties scandal as Tory MPs assess whether the prime minister is more of an electoral liability than asset.
Yet for Labour and Sir Keir Starmer, the polls will also be a barometer of whether his party can regain ground in Scotland and key red-wall seats which, if anything, have moved further towards the Conservatives since they were last contested in 2018. For the Liberal Democrats, the elections will show whether the party is finally re-emerging as an electoral force.
• Local elections 2022: What are the key battlegrounds?
Boris Johnson was accompanied by his dog, Dilyn, as he voted this morning. Sir Keir Starmer and his wife, Victoria, cast their votes at a polling station in north London.
What to watch out for as results are announced
When are the results due in England?
Overall, more than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs across 197 councils. The first few declarations from 2am tomorrow will begin to paint a picture for Labour in its former strongholds.
Sunderland has been under Labour control since 1973 and the party does not expect that to change, but the fear is that the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats could make significant progress in the city that backed Brexit in 2016.
Bolton could be the first scalp for Labour and it is seen as having potential for an early boost if the party can take the only Conservative-run borough in Greater Manchester.
The biggest tests for the Tories
Some of the most severe judgments for the Conservatives will come in London from about 3am.
Westminster has been held by the Tories continuously since 1964, but in key wards only a few votes could be decisive. On the campaign trail, canvassers hope voters focus on local issues rather than national scandals, while Labour admitted it would be tough to take the council.
There will be a big fight in Wandsworth, though, where Conservatives are relying on low council tax as a vote-winner as it is the only authority in the capital to have cut rates.
Conservatives recognise that if they lost Wandsworth — Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council — it would be a huge blow. Activists have been told the area is a priority for door-knocking and results are expected from about 5am tomorrow.
When will results come in from Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales?
The first signs from Northern Ireland assembly elections will appear at lunchtime, where Sinn Fein is likely to become the largest party in the province for the first time.
Results from Wales and Scotland will also start to filter in at about this time. There are not many surprises expected in Wales, but Labour hopes to win back some votes from the SNP in Scotland.
The bellwether council
Back in England, from 3pm an all-out fight in Newcastle-under-Lyme in Staffordshire will be a bellwether. The council has no overall control and the town’s Conservative MP, Aaron Bell, has called for Johnson to go.
It is also an area where Labour is hoping, perhaps expecting, to see some green shoots after a drubbing in the national polls in 2019.
By this point, there should be a clearer picture of how the parties have fared, although some counts will still be taking place.
Conservative strategists claim the Tories could face losses of up to 800 seats. More sensible estimates put the damage at between 200 and 300.
Labour has suggested the wins and losses will balance out.
In reality, low voter turnout will mean making national predictions in the post-election analysis will be problematic.
Voters head to the polls across UK
Welcome to The Times’s live coverage of the 2022 local election results. Polling is well under way across the country, with the first results due in the early hours of Friday. Results will continue throughout Friday and into Saturday, and you can follow all the results live here.
On Times Radio you can listen to live coverage of the results, plus full reaction and analysis through the night. Things kick off at 10pm with Carole Walker, followed by Matt Chorley at 1am and then Calum Macdonald at 3am.
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2022-05-05 16:15:00Z
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