Babak Belurs

Rabu, 14 Agustus 2019

Brexit: No chance of US trade deal if Irish accord hit - Pelosi - BBC News

A US-UK trade deal will not get through Congress if Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives has said.

Democrat Nancy Pelosi, whose party controls the House, said the UK's exit from the EU could not be allowed to endanger the Irish peace deal.

Her comments came after the US national security adviser said the UK would be "first in line" for a trade deal.

John Bolton spoke after meeting Prime Minister Boris Johnson in London.

The reimposition of frontier controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without mutual agreement on 31 October - a so-called "hard Brexit" - is seen as a threat to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland.

"Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland," Ms Pelosi said in a statement on Wednesday.

'Tough old haggle'

Mr Bolton said on Tuesday that the Trump administration supported a no-deal Brexit, and added Washington would propose an accelerated series of trade deals in the event of one.

He said these could be done on a "sector-by-sector" basis, with an agreement on manufacturing made first. A trade deal for financial services and agriculture would not be the first to be agreed, he added.

Asked whether his proposed plan would follow World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, Mr Bolton said "our trade negotiators seem to think it is".

He said there would be enthusiastic bipartisan support in Congress for speedy ratification at each stage.

Mr Johnson said there were "all sorts" of opportunities for UK business in the US, particularly service companies, but the negotiations will be a "tough old haggle".

However, critics warn that the UK will have to give in to some US demands in return for any trade agreement.

Former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who served under a Labour government, described Mr Bolton as "dangerously bellicose".

He suggested the UK would have to agree to some US demands, for example allowing imports of US chlorine-washed chicken.

"This is a highly transactional administration… you don't get something for nothing," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Lewis Lukens, a former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in London and former acting US ambassador, said Mr Bolton was aligned to President Trump's "America first agenda" and would be making "strong demands" on the UK to back the US position on issues like China, Iran and Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Mr Johnson is expected to have his first face-to-face meeting as prime minister with Mr Trump later this month at the G7 summit in France.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49348062

2019-08-14 14:38:19Z
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Pelosi vows no UK free-trade deal if Brexit undermines Good Friday accord | TheHill - The Hill

Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy Pelosi The Hill's Morning Report - Trump moves green cards, citizenship away from poor, low-skilled Democrats want McGahn testimony, Mueller grand jury cases decided by same judge The Hill's Morning Report - More talk on guns; many questions on Epstein's death MORE (D-Calif.) on Wednesday reiterated her opposition to a free trade deal with the United Kingdom if its withdrawal from the European Union harms Irish peace.

“The Good Friday Agreement serves as the bedrock of peace in Northern Ireland and as a beacon of hope for the entire world. After centuries of conflict and bloodshed, the world has witnessed a miracle of reconciliation and progress made possible because of this transformative accord," she said in a statement.

“If Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be no chance of a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement passing the Congress. The peace of the Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be fiercely defended on a bicameral and bipartisan basis in the United States Congress.”

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended the Northern Ireland conflict, which broke out in the 1960s.

Dealing with Northern Ireland has been a central issue for Brexit negotiators.

Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., shares a border with Ireland, which is part of the EU.

Critics of Brexit have raised concerns that a deal might require imposing a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, upsetting the agreement that has maintained peace for over two decades.

Pelosi's remarks come after national security adviser John BoltonJohn Robert Bolton Bolton: US would 'enthusiastically' support no-deal Brexit for UK The Hill's Morning Report - More talk on guns; many questions on Epstein's death Bolton to press UK on stronger response to Iran, Huawei: report MORE said that the U.S. would support a "no deal" Brexit, which would likely trigger the hard border. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck GrassleyCharles (Chuck) Ernest Grassley Here's how senators can overcome their hyperpartisanship with judicial nominees FBI briefs lawmakers on Texas, Ohio mass shootings Senate Dems urge Mnuchin not to cut capital gains taxes MORE (R-Iowa) also recently said he would support a no-deal exit.

Any new trade deal to substitute the U.S.-U.K. agreements negotiated through the EU would have to be brought to a vote in Congress, meaning the Speaker could block it.

The California lawmaker had originally voiced her opposition to a no deal Brexit to Irish Parliament in April.

Since then, British Prime Minister Theresa MayTheresa Mary May Trump tells UK's Boris Johnson he hopes they meet 'in the near future' Bolton to press UK on stronger response to Iran, Huawei: report UK economy shrinks for first time since 2012 MORE has been replaced by Boris Johnson, an ardent Brexit supporter.

The former London mayor has promised to leave the European Union by Oct. 31, but faces several roadblocks in negotiations.

— This report was updated at 9:13 a.m.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/house/457362-pelosi-vows-no-uk-free-trade-deal-if-brexit-undermines-good-friday-accord

2019-08-14 13:11:10Z
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Kameel Ahmady: British-Iranian academic 'arrested in Iran' - BBC News

A British-Iranian dual national has been arrested in western Iran, according to his family.

The wife of Kameel Ahmady, a social anthropologist, said he was taken into custody on Sunday from their home without a reason being given.

Mr Ahmady has researched female genital mutilation and child marriage in Iran, among other subjects.

Another British dual national, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, has been in Iranian custody since 2016 over spying claims.

Earlier this year, the UK foreign office advised all dual nationals against all travel to Iran because of the risk of arbitrary detention.

The new alleged arrest comes as high tensions, caused by oil tankers seizures, continue between the two countries.

Professional websites in Mr Ahmady's name identify him as "British-Iranian originally from Kurdistan". His LinkedIn profile says he studied at a number of UK universities, including the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

A spokesman for the Kurdistan Human Rights Network, who reported his arrest, said Mr Ahmady has lived in Iran for many years.

Officials in both countries are yet to confirm he has been taken into custody.

In an interview with BBC Persian, his wife Shafaq Rahmani alleged security agents came to the couple's house and "took away documents, including his ID card".

She said a local judicial official later confirmed a one-month temporary detention order had been issued against Mr Ahmady.

"They have not provided any information about the reason for the arrest or the charges against Kameel," Ms Rahmani wrote on Instagram.

Iran does not recognise dual nationality and there are no exact figures on the number of detainees who are also foreign nationals.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49341885

2019-08-14 11:06:07Z
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No-deal Brexit will be stopped, former finance minister Hammond says - Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - Parliament will block a no-deal Brexit if unelected people behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson try to wrench Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without agreement, former finance minister Philip Hammond said on Wednesday.

FILE PHOTO: Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond leaves the BBC studios in London, Britain, July 21, 2019. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo

The United Kingdom is heading towards a constitutional crisis at home and a showdown with the EU as Johnson has vowed to leave the bloc in 78 days time without a deal unless it agrees to renegotiate a Brexit divorce.

After more than three years of Brexit dominating EU affairs, the bloc has repeatedly refused to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement which includes an Irish border insurance policy that Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, agreed in November.

Hammond, who served as May’s finance minister for three years, said unelected people in Johnson’s Downing Street office were setting London on an “inevitable” course towards a no-deal Brexit by demanding the backstop be dropped.

“The people behind this know that that means that there will be no deal,” Hammond told the BBC. “Parliament is clearly opposed to a no-deal exit, and the prime minister must respect that.”

The former minister’s first public intervention since resigning indicates the determination of a group of influential lawmakers to thwart Johnson if he goes for a no-deal Brexit.

Hammond said he was confident parliament, where a majority oppose a no-deal Brexit, would find a way to block that outcome.

It is, however, unclear if lawmakers have the unity or power to use the 800-year-old heart of British democracy to prevent a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 - likely to be the United Kingdom’s most consequential move since World War Two.

Opponents of no deal say it would be a disaster for what was once one of the West’s most stable democracies. A disorderly divorce, they say, would hurt global growth, send shockwaves through financial markets and weaken London’s claim to be the world’s preeminent financial centre.

Brexit supporters say there may be short-term disruption from a no-deal exit but that the economy will thrive if cut free from what they cast as a doomed experiment in integration that has led to Europe falling behind China and the United States.

CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS

Heading towards one of the biggest constitutional crises in at least a century, Britain’s elite are quarrelling over how, when and even if the result of the shock 2016 referendum will be implemented.

Part of the problem is that Britain’s constitution, once touted as a global model, is uncodified and vague. It relies on precedent, but there is little for Brexit.

The House of Commons speaker John Bercow told an audience in Scotland that lawmakers could prevent a no-deal Brexit and that he would fight any attempt to prorogue, or suspend, parliament “with every bone in my body”.

“We cannot have a situation in which parliament is shut down – we are a democratic society,” the Telegraph quoted Bercow as saying at an event on the sidelines of the Edinburgh Festival.

“And parliament will be heard and nobody is going to get away, as far as I am concerned, with stopping that happening,” added the 56-year-old who says he voted “Remain” in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Johnson, who replaced May after she failed three times to get her Brexit deal through parliament, has refused to rule out proroguing the House of Commons and Brexit supporters have vociferously encouraged him to do so if necessary.

Hammond said the Leave campaign in the 2016 referendum did not tout no deal as a likely option, so to leave under those conditions would be a betrayal of the referendum that would reduce the nation to an “inward-looking little England”.

The United Kingdom, he said, would be under threat with referendums likely on Scottish independence and a united Ireland.

FILE PHOTO: Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow announces the results of a round of voting on alternative Brexit options at the House of Commons in London, Britain April 1, 2019 in this still image taken from video. Reuters TV via REUTERS

Johnson’s top advisor, Dominic Cummings, has reportedly said he could delay calling a general election until after Oct. 31, even if he lost a no confidence motion, allowing for a no-deal Brexit while parliament is dissolved.

Clearly with him in mind, Hammond said there were people “who are pulling the strings in Downing Street, those who are setting the strategy.”

Cummings declined to comment to Reuters.

Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-bercow/britains-speaker-aims-to-block-parliament-closure-for-brexit-newspaper-idUSKCN1V323B

2019-08-14 07:54:00Z
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UK 'first in line' for US trade deal, says John Bolton - BBC News

The UK is "first in line" for a trade deal with the US, President Trump's national security adviser has said.

John Bolton said the US supported a no-deal Brexit and added Washington would propose an accelerated series of trade deals.

Mr Bolton claimed deals could be done on a "sector-by-sector" basis, with an agreement on manufacturing made first.

However, critics warned the UK would have to give in to some US demands in return for any trade agreement.

His comments came after meeting Prime Minister Boris Johnson at No 10.

According to Mr Bolton, a bilateral agreement or "series of agreements" could be carved out "very quickly, very straight-forwardly".

A trade deal for financial services and agriculture would not be the first to be agreed, he added.

Mr Bolton said "doing it in pieces" was not unprecedented and the US understood the importance of doing as much as possible as rapidly as possible before the 31 October exit date.

He said there would be enthusiastic bipartisan support in Congress for speedy ratification at each stage.

Mr Johnson said there "all sorts" of opportunities for UK business in the US, particularly service companies, but the negotiations will be a "tough old haggle".

"The single biggest deal we need to do is a free trade deal agreement with our friends and partners over the Channel," he said.

But Nancy Pelosi, who leads the Democrats in the US House of Representatives, said in April that a US-UK trade deal would not be "on the cards" if Brexit damaged the Good Friday peace agreement in Northern Ireland.

Asked whether his proposed plan would follow World Trade Organisation rules, Mr Bolton said "our trade negotiators seem to think it is".

And he insisted the UK was "constantly at the front of the trade queue" for the Trump administration.

Would a sector-by-sector agreement work?

By BBC economics correspondent Andrew Walker

There is a problem with sector-by-sector trade agreements. They are not compatible with WTO rules, which say free trade agreements for goods should cover "substantially all the trade".

There is no formal definition of that term but a figure of 90% has often been suggested.

It is unlikely a deal covering a few sectors would qualify. Other WTO members could start a dispute and would, on the face of it, have every chance of winning.

However, it does not mean it would be impossible. WTO rules are not enforceable in national courts so if the UK and the US wanted to go ahead they probably could.

But it would be a strange move for any country committed to the rules-based global trade system that has the WTO at its heart.

There is another problem for any trade agreement: whether it meets the "substantially all the trade" criterion or not, it would need to be ratified by the US Congress.

There is a substantial body of American legislators who would be likely to vote against it if they thought that Brexit had taken place in a way that posed a danger to the peace process and the open border on the island of Ireland.

Mr Bolton also referenced Mr Johnson's willingness to participate in Operation Sentinel, which aims to beef up the military presence in the Gulf in the face of tensions between the West and Iran, saying he was "pleased" as this "reflects a change" from Theresa May's government.

Meanwhile, former Labour foreign secretary Jack Straw described Mr Bolton as "dangerously bellicose", and suggested the UK would have to agree to some US demands, for example allowing imports of US chlorine-washed chicken.

"This is a highly transactional administration… you don't get something for nothing," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Lewis Lukens, a former deputy chief of mission at the US Embassy in London and former acting US ambassador, said Mr Bolton was aligned to President Trump's "America first agenda" and would be making "strong demands" on the UK to back the US position on issues like Huawei, China and Iran.

Mr Johnson is expected to have his first face-to-face meeting as prime minister with Mr Trump later this month at the G7 summit in France.

Analysis

By BBC diplomatic correspondent James Robbins

It would be hard to find a more enthusiastic champion of Brexit than John Bolton: a thoughtful, intellectual, highly combative and controversial champion of the nation state.

He caused havoc as US ambassador to the United Nations between 2005 and 2006 with his open rejection of the UN's usefulness except where it served the direct interests of the US.

So it should be no surprise that he told us at a briefing during his London visit: "Britain's success in successfully exiting the European Union is a statement about democratic rule and constitutional government that's important for Britain, but it's important for the United States too."

He stressed it was very much in the US interest and there was no "quid pro quo" with any other issues. By that, he was denying all suggestions that Britain would be expected to fall into line with Washington's Iran policy - although he clearly hoped that it might.

Likewise, he welcomed Mr Johnson's position on Huawei and 5G technology, calling it "Britain going back to square one" and re-examining the issue.

For now, Mr Bolton said, Britain was entirely focused on Brexit. The US is willing to wait. But that does leave open many questions about future relations and possible political trade-offs with the United States.

If Mr Bolton's major intervention in trade negotiations has raised some eyebrows, the National Security Advisor had a forthright answer to that.

He pointed us to the National Security Act of 1947 and told us firmly that his remit includes economic security, because the security of a nation depends fundamentally on its prosperity.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49325620

2019-08-14 00:17:36Z
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Selasa, 13 Agustus 2019