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Rishi Sunak is braced for heavy losses in the local elections as rebel Tories plot to oust him if key mayoral contests are lost in what has been described as a potential “armageddon” weekend for the prime minister.
Ahead of the first results coming in overnight, a bombshell new poll found the Tories are now even less popular under Mr Sunak than during the calamitous premiership of Liz Truss.
Early indications from Sunderland pointed to a strong performance for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with the right-wing challenger party beating the Tories in a slew of the seats up for grabs.
The results will heighten the nerves of Conservative MPs as two days of counting begins.
One Tory MP told The Independent that a move against Mr Sunak is “likely” if either West Midlands mayor Andy Street or Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen lose their jobs.
Former chancellor George Osborne said on his Political Currency podcast: “If Andy Street loses in the West Midlands, that’s pretty bad ...[but] If Ben Houchen loses it will be armageddon – because at that point, people will say, ‘We are absolutely headed now for a massive landslide defeat’.”
Labour is expected to win a by-election taking place in Blackpool South.
Hartlepool and Thurrock Labour gains confirmed
Labour won nine of the 12 seats up for grabs in Hartlepool to gain control of the council, with independents winning two and the Conservatives one.
A spokesman said: “Winning back Hartlepool council is a groundbreaking moment after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021.”
The party’s gain of Thurrock council has also been confirmed after the party announced it thinks it has won.
Professor Sir John Curtice: ‘Real story is Reform and the Greens’
Britain’s top polling guru has said we are “endlessly” focused on the battle between Labour and the Tories, but the story tonight is of big gains for Reform UK and the Green Party.
Professor Sir John Curtice said Nigel Farage’s challenger party is doing “damage” to the Conservatives where they are standing.
And he said the Greens are making “spectacular gains”, pointing to the party’s success in Newcastle.
“They may be heading for their best performance yet in English local elections,” he told the BBC.
Reform has made significant gains, beating the Conservatives in 16 of the 25 seats it contested in Sunderland.
Labour claims it has gained Thurrock
Labour has hailed a “key” gain in Thurrock, claiming to have gained control of the council from it being in no overall control.
The local authority was the fourth highest leave voting in Britain in the Brexit referendum, and was won by the Conservatives a year ago but moved into no overall control due to defections.
A Labour Party spokesman said: “This is exactly the kind of place we need to be winning to gain a majority in a general election. The people of Thurrock have sent the Conservatives a message that they want change.”
Labour keeps South Tyneside but suffers heavy losses
Labour retained control of South Tyneside, but lost at least seven seats to independents.
The party needed to win four seats of the 14 seats it held going into polling day, and while it achieved that, its majority will be reduced.
It has been suffering heavy losses to independent candidates challenging its stance on the war in Gaza.
Labour also retained control of Newcastle-upon-Tyne after winning 12 of the first 19 seats to be declared early on Friday morning.
The party held 46 of the 78 council seats going into polling day and needed to win 10 of the 27 being contested to retain control.
The Liberal Democrats had won four, Greens two and independents one, with eight seats still to declare.
Lib Dems feeling confident about Blue Wall gains
The Liberal Democrats are confident they have made major gains in the so-called Blue Wall of safe Tory seats.
A Lib Dem source said: “We are already hearing of Lib Dem gains in former Conservative heartlands. Lib Dems expecting to move forward overnight in Oxfordshire, Hampshire and Hertfordshire.”
Alarm bells for Rishi Sunak after Reform UK’s performance in Sunderland
The final result in Sunderland was Labour 18, Liberal Democrats four and Conservatives three, with Reform UK beating the Tories in 16 of the 25 seats being contested.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster during Theresa May’s tenure, said: “Some of these Sunderland results are truly torrid for the Conservatives and are showing that - in Sunderland at least - Reform UK is real.”
It is thought the party will deprive the Tories of tens of seats in the general election.
Broxbourne becomes first council to declare
The Conservatives could not have lost control of the council whatever the result, as it started the night with 27 of the 30 seats.
The first council to declare its full result on Friday morning was Broxbourne in Hertfordshire, where the Conservatives won nine and Labour one of the 10 seats being contested, meaning no seats changed hands.
Labour gains Hartlepool council, spokesman
A Labour Party spokesman has said it won back Hartlepool council, describing it as a “groundbreaking moment” after disappointment in the area in 2021.
Sir Keir Starmer has admitted he considered quitting as Labour leader after the party lost both the Hartlepool by-election and council seats three years ago.
A spokesman said: “Winning back Hartlepool council is a groundbreaking moment after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021.
“Keir Starmer pledged to change the Labour Party after that result, and today’s win shows that this changed Labour party is ready to deliver the change that communities like Hartlepool are crying out for.
“Making gains here shows that the Party is on track to win a general election and is firmly back in the service of working people.”
Chris Heaton-Harris: Vote Reform, get Labour
Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris said the results in Sunderland showed "if you vote Reform, you get Labour".
The Northern Ireland Secretary told the BBC: "It’s a very straightforward equation for people at the next general election.
"If they want to vote Reform, they’ll end up with Labour MPs, and they’ll end up with a Labour government, and then they’ll end up, probably, with everything they didn’t want to vote for based on the profile of Reform voters."
Tory minister admits Conservatives will lose Blackpool South
Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris accepted that Blackpool South was likely to be lost by the Conservatives.
The Northern Ireland Secretary said it was "going to be a tough seat for us to hold" given the scandal which led to it.
He told the BBC: "You are highly unlikely to be rewarded by the electorate. Electorates do not like by-elections being put on them because of a failing like that.
"From the very start I would have expected to lose Blackpool South."
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2024-05-03 00:53:07Z
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