Jumat, 16 Februari 2024

Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections: Double blow for Sunak as Labour wins - The Independent

Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections key statistics and benchmarks

Rishi Sunak has suffered a double blow after losing both the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections.

Labour overturned majorities of 11,220 and 18,540, delivering the Government's ninth and tenth by-election defeats of the current Parliament and securing its second largest swing from the Conservatives ever.

Gen Kitchen secured Wellingborough with 45.8 per cent of the vote, while Damien Egan won Kingswood with 44.9 per cent of the vote.

The results provided Labour with a boost after a U-turn on the party's pledge to spend £28 billion on green projects and an antisemitism row that forced it to drop its candidate for another by-election in Rochdale in two weeks' time.

The twin defeat piles more pressure on the prime minister following the news that the UK entered a recession at the end of 2023.

The results also mean the Government has now suffered the most by-election defeats of any government since the 1960s, surpassing the eight defeats suffered by John Major in the run-up to Tony Blair's 1997 landslide victory.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer hailed the victories, saying: "These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it.”

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Reform UK want Labour in Downing Street, Tory party chairman says

Reform UK want to see Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street, the Conservative Party chairman said.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Richard Holden said: “Their ambition is to block Conservatives winning seats and therefore put Keir Starmer into Downing Street.

“They’ve made it very clear, you’ve read out that statement from them, that’s what Reform UK want to do, they want to see Keir Starmer in Downing Street and not have a Conservative government.”

He added: “Reform aren’t challenging realistically for seats. This general elections is going to be a battle between the Conservatives and the Labour Party.

“All Reform are going to do, as they’ve said themselves, is help put Keir Starmer and Labour into Downing Street.”

Asked if Prime Minister Rishi Sunak needs to appease the right of the Conservative Party, Mr Holden said: “If the right of the British politics and the centre and centre-right – that broad church which is the Conservative Party – doesn’t unite, then we will see a Labour victory.”

He added: “I believe we have every opportunity to win the next general election, I think we definitely can do it, but that means we have got to come together as a party, unite in the best interests of the country, deliver those things that we’ve promised, work together as a party to do that.”

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 08:00
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Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden said both by-election results were “very disappointing”.

Mr Holden told Sky News: “Very disappointing results – no need to shy away from that – in both Kingswood and Wellingborough.

“I think one of the most disappointing things for me though is the turnout in the by-elections was so significantly down compared to the previous general elections in both seats. I want to see people actively participating in democracy.

“I think that shows we’ve got a lot to do to get people out there and enthused to vote again, and probably the Opposition have a similar challenge.”

He added: “I think we’ve got to look at both these by-elections in the context in which they happened as well.

“We had an MP in Kingswood who stood down and also obviously in Wellingborough we had a parliamentary investigation, which led to a recall petition which led to an MP being forced to stand down.

“Not ideal circumstances for any form of by-election for any party.”

He also told BBC Breakfast that people were “keeping their vote at home” and insisted voters stayed at home rather than switching their votes.

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 07:43
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Watch: moment Labour’s Damien Egan is announced the winner of the Kingswood by-election

This is the moment Labour’s Damien Egan is announced as the winner of the Kingswood by-election.

As the party overturned a Conservative majority of more than 11,000, Mr Egan claimed “The Tories have sucked the hope out of our country”.

In his victory speech in the early hours of Friday morning, Mr Egan thanked the activists who helped him win and the people of Kingswood for putting their trust in him.

He said: “It’s a trust that I promise to repay, to show you that politics can be different and it can make a difference.”

Watch Labour’s Damien Egan win Kingswood by-election: ‘Tories sucked hope out of UK’

This is the moment Labour’s Damien Egan is pronounced the winner of the Kingswood by-election. As the party overturned a Conservative majority of more than 11,000, Mr Egan claimed “The Tories have sucked the hope out of our country”. In his victory speech in the early hours of Friday morning (16 February), Mr Egan thanked the activists who helped him win and the people of Kingswood for putting their trust in him. He said: “It’s a trust that I promise to repay, to show you that politics can be different and it can make a difference.”

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 07:33
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‘People going directly from Conservative to Labour'

Veteran Labour MP Sir Chris Bryant said that he had spoken to people in Kingswood who had voted Labour for the first time in their lives, as Labour took the win in the by-election.

Speaking from the Kingswood count, Mr Bryant said: “I am delighted. I had a moment this afternoon when I all thought it was going wrong because of the rain and it was pouring down and I was sopping wet and I wasn’t sure how I was going to get into a suit.

“But people came out and they voted. A lot of switchers – people going directly from Conservative to Labour. One man said to me today he was 65 and had voted Conservative all his life, including during the Tony Blair years, and today was the first time he voted Labour.”

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 07:20
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Who is Gen Kitchen? Labour’s new MP for Wellingborough

And Labour figures are confident that Ms Kitchen’s win, beating Tory candidate Helen Harrison by more than 6,000 votes, puts the party on course for a landslide under Sir Keir Starmer later this year.

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 07:05
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Who is Damien Egan? Labour’s new MP for Kingswood

Damien Egan has won the Kingswood by-election, overturning a 11,200 majority held by the Conservatives to give Labour a further boost ahead of the general election.

Mr Egan’s win, beating Tory candidate Sam Bromiley by 2,501 votes, was not a great surprise locally for a seat last held by Labour in 2005.

The Cork-born MP has been supported by notable visits from the likes of Sir Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and Dawn Butler.

But it is his local roots which have been a key part of his campaign. So here The Independent looks at who is Mr Egan?

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 06:56
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Key numbers and statistics in full

As the Conservatives face a double blow in the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections, they become the party to have lost more by-elections in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.

Here are the key statistics and historical benchmarks from the results of Thursday’s by-elections:

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 06:55
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What do the losses mean for the Conservatives?

Defeats in Thursday’s by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough mean the Conservatives have lost more by-elections in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.

The Tories have clocked up 10 such defeats since the 2019 general election – two more than the eight suffered by the 1992-97 Conservative government led by John Major.

It is more than any previous government since the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which endured 15 losses.

Even accounting for the Conservatives’ one by-election gain this parliament – winning Hartlepool from Labour in 2021 – the double defeat on Thursday brings the party’s overall by-election scorecard to nine net losses, which is still worse than any government since 1966-70.

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 06:39
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Good morning, here’s the latest

The Tories suffered a devastating double by-election defeat overnight with Labour taking huge majorities in both the Gloucestershire seat of Kingswood and the Northamptonshire seat of Wellingborough.

In Wellingborough, Labour’s Gen Kitchen won 45.92 per cent of the vote while her Conservative opponent Helen Harrison won just 24.57 per cent.

It marks the second-largest swing to Labour since the Second World War.

Similar results were seen in Kingswood were the Labour candidate Damien Egan won 44.94 per cent of the vote compared to the 34.88 per cent the Conservative’s Sam Bromiley received.

Upon his election, Mr Egan said: “Our country is at a crossroads. Under the Conservatives we can choose more managed decline, more chaos, more division or we can choose a changed Labour Party.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer also weighed in on the results and said: “The Tories have failed. Rishi’s recession proves that. That’s why we’ve seen so many former Conservative voters switching directly to this changed Labour Party.”

<p>Gen Kitchen won the Wellingborough by-election with the second-largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the Second World War (Joe Giddens/PA)</p>

Gen Kitchen won the Wellingborough by-election with the second-largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the Second World War (Joe Giddens/PA)

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 06:16
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Sir Keir Starmer: ‘These are fantastic results'

Sir Keir will not be doing a media round on Friday morning as he attends the funeral of the late Rochdale MP Sir Tony Lloyd.

But speaking about tonight’s results, he said: “These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it.

“By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.

“The Tories have failed. Rishi’s recession proves that. That’s why we’ve seen so many former Conservative voters switching directly to this changed Labour Party.”

<p>Sir Keir is joined by musician Feargal Sharkey as he canvasses voters by phone for the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections</p>

Sir Keir is joined by musician Feargal Sharkey as he canvasses voters by phone for the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections

Alex Ross16 February 2024 05:37

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Kamis, 15 Februari 2024

Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election results: Double blow for Sunak as Labour wins both seats - The Independent

Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections key statistics and benchmarks

Rishi Sunak has suffered a double blow after losing both the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections.

Labour overturned majorities of 11,220 and 18,540, delivering the Government's ninth and tenth by-election defeats of the current Parliament and securing its second largest swing from the Conservatives ever.

Gen Kitchen secured Wellingborough with 45.8% of the vote, while Damien Egan won Kingswood with 44.9 per cent of the vote.

The results provided Labour with a boost after a U-turn on the party's pledge to spend £28 billion on green projects and an antisemitism row that forced it to drop its candidate for another by-election in Rochdale in two weeks' time.

The twin defeat piles more pressure on the Prime Minister following the news that the UK entered a recession at the end of 2023, while Reform UK scored its best by-election results after targeting disgruntled voters on the right, securing more than 10 per cent of the vote for the first time in a by-election.Reform deputy leader Ben Habib won 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough, while Rupert Lowe won 10 per cent in Kingswood.

The results also mean the Government has now suffered the most by-election defeats of any government since the 1960s, surpassing the eight defeats suffered by John Major in the run-up to Tony Blair's 1997 landslide victory.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer hailed the victories, saying: "These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it.”

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‘This shows that people are fed up’ - Gen Kitchen

Gen Kitchen, the new MP for Wellingborough, said she was “ecstatic” at the result, adding that the double by-election win for Labour shows that people are “fed up” and want change.

She said: “I hope Damien (Egan, new Labour MP for Kingswood) is as ecstatic as I am, and I’m sure the Labour leadership will be as well.

“This shows that people are fed up, they want change, they want competency, they want pragmatism and they want politicians to under-promise and over-deliver, which is what I am hoping to do.

“It shows how much hard work we put in and the real positive message we were putting out. There is a real appetite for a fresh start and change.”

Alex Ross16 February 2024 05:11
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Keir Starmer: ‘Rishi’s recession proves the Tories have failed’

After the results of the Wellingborough contest were confirmed Sir Keir said the “fantastic” wins show “people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it”.

He said: "By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.

"The Tories have failed. Rishi’s recession proves that. That’s why we’ve seen so many former Conservative voters switching directly to this changed Labour Party.

"Those who gave us their trust in Kingswood and Wellingborough, and those considering doing so, can be safe in the knowledge that we will spend every day working to get Britain’s future back.”

Archie Mitchell16 February 2024 04:57
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Tells you nothing about the general election - Rees-Mogg

Labour’s overturning of the Conservative majority in Kingswood could be read as a sign of how things will go at the general election this year by many, but not for North East Somerset MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Speaking after the result, he said: “Does it tell you anything about the general election? Almost certainly not.

“By-elections are an opportunity for people not to turn out, to protest, and at ensuing general elections they don’t give a consistent guide to what happens.”

He added: “From the point of view of Kingswood, I think the Conservatives can be more pleased than they might have expected. I certainly thought this result would be worse.

“Bear in mind a lot of the postal votes would have been back before Labour’s problem with antisemitism was in the public.”

<p>Jacob Rees-Moggs spoke to the media at the Kingswood by-election</p>

Jacob Rees-Moggs spoke to the media at the Kingswood by-election

Alex Ross16 February 2024 04:25
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Full Wellingborough by-election result

Gen Kitchen (Labour) 13,844 (45.92 per cent, +19.46 per cent)

Helen Harrison (Conservative) 7,408 (24.57 per cent, -37.60 per cent)

Ben Habib (Reform UK) 3,919 (13.00 per cent)

Ana Savage Gunn (Liberal Democrat) 1,422 (4.72 per cent, -3.14 per cent)

Marion Turner-Hawes (ND) 1,115 (3.70 per cent)

Will Morris (Green) 1,020 (3.38 per cent, -0.12 per cent)

Kev Watts (Ind) 533 (1.77 per cent)

Alex Merola (Britain First) 477 (1.58 per cent)

Nick The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party) 217 (0.72 per cent)

Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent) 172 (0.57 per cent)

Ankit Love Jay Mala (ND) 18 (0.06 per cent)

Lab maj 6,436 (21.35 per cent)

28.53 per cent swing C to Lab

Electorate 79,372; Turnout 30,145 (37.98 per cent, -26.30 per cent)

Archie Mitchell16 February 2024 04:23
1708056543

Labour’s Gen Kitchen wins the Wellingborough by-election

Labour has won the Wellingborough by-election, with candidate Gen Kitchen overturning the Conservatives’ 19,000 majority.

The 28-year-old beat the Tories’ Helen Harrison, the partner of disgraced former MP Peter Bone, whose resignation sparked the contest.

Ms Kitchen will be the first Labour MP for Wellingborough since Mr Bone turned the seat blue in 2005. She will also enter the House of Commons as one of its youngest MPs.

Ms Kitchen won with 13,844 votes, almost twice as many as Ms Harrison, who secured 7,408 votes.

Archie Mitchell16 February 2024 04:09
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What triggered the by-elections?

Two by-elections were voted on by constituents in the Gloucestershire seat of Kingswood and the Northamptonshire seat of Wellingborough on Thursday in a key day in UK politics.

Kingswood’s vote was triggered by Chris Skidmore’s resignation as an MP in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.

He won the Gloucestershire constituency for the Tories at the past four general elections, before which Labour held it at every general election since 1992.

The by-election in Wellingborough comes after former Tory MP Peter Bone received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.

He won the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four of the five contests and Ukip in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 36%.

<p>Former Tory MP Peter Bone was ousted by voters through a recall petition (Kirsty O’Connor/PA)</p>

Former Tory MP Peter Bone was ousted by voters through a recall petition (Kirsty O’Connor/PA)

Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 04:00
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We spoke to new Kingswood MP Damien Egan

Damien Egan was with family in Yate, about a 30-minute drive from the count in Thornbury, after the polls closed at 10pm, before receiving a call that the result was going to be declared earlier than first expected.

The 42-year-old, who lives in Staple Hill, spoke to us after his win.

After we asked how he was feeling, and why he’d won, he said: “Incredibly exciting, it really hasn’t sunk in at all yet. I think the reason [we won] was because we talked to people about the issues that they cared about, cost-of-living crisis, talking about policing and feeling safer on the streets, and the NHS.”

Asked if he was worried over the impact of the antisemitism row in Rochdale on the vote, he said: “When you are a candidate, you worry about everything. I was worried about the rain more to be honest, because as I thought with such heavy rain people wouldn’t come out to vote, but I’ll be honest, the issues you are referring to didn’t come up.”

Alex Ross16 February 2024 03:05
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‘We can’t be unhappy with that’ - Reform UK

Reform’s 10 per cent share of the vote in Kingswood represents its best performance in a by-election so far this parliament, and is up from the 5 per cent and 4 per cent the party achieved in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections respectively in October 2023.

Candidate Rupert Lowe was overhead telling his aides: “We can’t be unhappy with that.”

Alex Ross in Thornbury16 February 2024 02:38
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Labour’s Kingswood swing would cost the Tories 169 seats nationally

The 16.4 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour would cost Rishi Sunak 169 seats at a general election, putting Sir Keir Starmer on course for an outright majority.

It is the sixth by-election win since Sir Keir took the reins from Jeremy Corbyn.

And it means the Tories have had nine by-election losses in this parliament, more than in the run up to Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide.

Archie Mitchell16 February 2024 02:30
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‘Our country is at a crossroads’ - Damien Egan

Damien Egan, in his winning speech after winning the Kingswood by-election, said:“In Kingswood, as across the country, 14 years of Conservative government have sucked the hope out of our country with a feeling that no matter how hard you work, you just can’t move forward.

“And with Rishi’s recession we’re left again paying more and getting less. It doesn’t have to be this way, you know it, I know it, we all know it.

“When the Prime Minister finally finds the courage to give the people a say, we’re going to need each and every one of you again to come out and vote and make sure your voices are heard.

“Our country is at a crossroads. Under the Conservatives we can choose more managed decline, more chaos, more division or we can choose a changed Labour Party.”

Alex Ross16 February 2024 02:28

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Bristol stabbing: Two 15-year-old boys arrested on suspicion of murder - BBC.com

By Lauren Turner

Ben Birchall Forensic team at Rawnsley Park with police tape on the railingsBen Birchall

Two boys, both 15, have been arrested on suspicion of murder over the fatal stabbing of a 16-year-old boy in Bristol on Wednesday, police said.

The teenage was attacked in Rawnsley Park by two people wearing masks.

Officers were called to the scene at 6pm and the victim, yet to be named by police, died at the scene.

Supt Mark Runacres of Avon and Somerset Police said his team was "working around the clock to bring those responsible to justice."

After the attack, the victim ran to Stapleton Road, where a motorist assisted him. He then collapsed in West Street, Old Market, and died at the scene, despite the efforts of paramedics.

While formal identification of the victim has not yet taken place, police said his family had been informed.

Supt Runacres said: "Our collective thoughts are with the victim's family and loved ones during what is undoubtedly a very difficult time.

"Specialist family liaison officer have been assigned to the family to provide them with support and keep them updated on the investigation."

He had earlier described the attack as a "stark reminder" of the "horrific impact" knife crime had on communities, saying: "Tragically, we have lost another young life from our city in utterly horrific circumstances."

The police force has announced a new operation aimed at tackling knife crime involving young people in the area, with temporary Assistant Chief Constable Peter Warren saying it was an "ongoing issue" in Bristol.

The two boys arrested in connection with the police investigation have been taken to police custody, where they will be questioned.

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Labour accuses Hunt of being ‘out of touch’ on economy as polls open in Kingswood and Wellingborough – UK politics live - The Guardian

Labour have suggested Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s comments on the UK entering technical recession meant he and his party were “out of touch” with voters, and demanded a general election.

In comments after figures showed the UK economy was in recession, Hunt told broadcasters:

We always expected growth to be weaker while we prioritised tackling inflation, that means higher interest rates, and that is the right thing to do because you can’t have long-term healthy growth with high inflation.

But also for families when there is a cost-of-living crisis, when the cost of their weekly shop is going up, their energy bills are much higher, it is the right thing to do.

The underlying picture here is an economy that is more resilient than most people predicted, inflation is coming down, real wages have been going up now for six months.

If we stick to our guns, independent forecasters say that by the early summer we could start to see interest rates falling and that will be a very important relief for families with mortgages.

Hunt also said that “there are signs the British economy is turning a corner”, claiming:

Forecasters agree that growth will strengthen over the next few years, wages are rising faster than prices, mortgage rates are down and unemployment remains low. Although times are still tough for many families, we must stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy.

In his January 2023 pledges, prime minister Rishi Sunak promised “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.”

A spokesperson for the Labour Party said: “Jeremy Hunt’s comments are as insulting as they are out of touch. The Conservatives’ failure to take any responsibility for Rishi’s recession show why we need an election.”

Filters BETA

With the caveat that the Guardian has not independently verified the timing and location of this photograph, we appear to have our first dog at a polling station social media post from Wellingborough. This is, apparently, Monty.

On Sky News this morning Jeremy Hunt claimed that he would “only cut taxes in a way that was responsible” in the March budget, and the chancellor refused to be drawn on specific measures.

He told viewers:

You will know that chancellors don’t talk about budgets just a few weeks before and that is for a very good reason, because I don’t yet know the final numbers that I will receive from the office for budget responsibility.

I would only cut taxes in a way that was responsible, and I certainly wouldn’t do anything that fuelled inflation just when we are starting to have some success in bringing down inflation.

Inflation has dropped over the last year from 11% to 4%, but is still running much higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Questioned if tax cuts would come at the expense of cutting public services, Hunt said:

I am a passionate supporter of the NHS and all our public services, but in the long-run the best thing that I can do as chancellor for the NHS is to make sure that our economy is growing healthily. So what you will see in everything I do in the Budget on March 6 is prioritising economic growth.

He suggested that countries with “lighter taxes” did “tend to grow faster”. Earlier in February the prime minister acknowledged that he has failed to keep his promise to cut healthcare waiting lists in England.

Keir Starmer has used today’s GDP figures as another opportunity to call for change, saying that it is working people who are paying the price for what he described as “14 years of Tory economic decline”.

Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor

In one sense, there is no comparison between 2009 and 2023. The former was a severe recession, with output declining by about 6% over a protracted period. In 2023 the economy has essentially stagnated: growing by 0.2% in the first quarter, remaining unchanged in the second quarter and then shrinking slightly in the second half of the year.

That said, even a technical recession is a headache for Rishi Sunak, the economy showed across-the-board weakness in the fourth quarter, with all three main sectors – services, manufacturing and construction – going backwards. There was also evidence that households had been cutting back on their spending as a result of cost of living pressures and the squeeze from higher interest rates.

Governments facing the prospect of a general election always want to generate a feelgood factor before polling day. Britain, in the last three months of 2023, had the opposite: a feel-bad factor.

The picture would have been even worse had it not been for a rising population. Gross domestic product per head of population has not risen for seven straight quarters (six falls, one quarter unchanged) stretching back to early 2022.

Jeremy Hunt put a brave face on what was clearly unwelcome news for a government. The economy was “turning a corner”, the chancellor said, and forecasters were predicting stronger growth over the coming years. Hunt may well be right. The worst for the economy is now probably over.

Read Larry Elliott’s full analysis here: Even a technical recession is a headache for Rishi Sunak

Because the amount of growth or shrinkage in the economy is small, you will see the phrase “technical recession” being bandied about a lot today –and I already note some questions about the term in the comments. See, I do read them.

Look at this way, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so if you have quarters where the economy grows by 0.2%, 0.1%, -0.2%, -0.1% you would have technically entered a recession. However, four quarters where growth was 0.1%, -0.5%, 0.1%, -0.5% wouldn’t be a recession, even though the economy had shrunk by more. Essentially when we are dealing with very small changes, you can fall into a recession which is in effect a flatline.

The ONS said growth over the course of 2023 as a whole was estimated at 0.1%, the weakest year since 2009 during the financial crisis, excluding the economic collapse in 2020 during the Covid pandemic.

The ONS have an explainer on recessions here – The ‘R’ Word: What exactly is a ‘recession’ anyway? – in which Darren Morgan, ONS Director of Economic Statistics is quoted as saying:

A technical recession is widely regarded as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You could get a -0.1% or +0.1% change, but how different really was the economy at that point in time? I would say it was broadly flat, but some people do get excited about it.

Chief economist at the ONS, Grant Fitzner, adds – and I will try not to take this personally:

I think journalists need something quick and simple to understand, and I guess this [technical recession] meets the bill. But I don’t think anyone would seriously call that a ‘recession’. The common sense understanding of a recession is a prolonged and significant downturn in economic activity. So not just one or two quarters, and not just a 0.1% change, but actually something a bit more substantial.

Jeremy Hunt is considering making billions of pounds of spending cuts to fund pre-election tax cuts in the next budget, according to a report.

The chancellor is looking at “further spending restraint” after 2025 if official economic forecasts suggest he does not have enough headroom to pay for “smart tax cuts”, the Financial Times reported, citing Treasury insiders.

The newspaper said Treasury officials were looking at reducing the projected rise in public spending from 2025 onwards to about 0.75% a year, which would release £5bn to £6bn for tax cuts in this spring’s budget.

The cuts would have to be made in unprotected departmental budgets such as adult social care and Ministry of Justice funding for courts and prisons. NHS and schools spending is protected.

Read more of Eleni Courea’s report here: Jeremy Hunt ‘considering spending cuts’ to fund pre-election tax giveaway

Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, has said that the prime minister’s promises on the economy are “in tatters” after it was announced that the UK was in recession.

She said:

The prime minister can no longer credibly claim that his plan is working or that he has turned the corner on more than 14 years of economic decline under the Conservatives that has left Britain worse off.

This is Rishi Sunak’s recession and the news will be deeply worrying for families and business across Britain.

It is time for a change. We need an election now to give the British people the chance to vote for a changed Labour Party that has a long-term plan for more jobs, more investment and cheaper bills.

Labour have suggested Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s comments on the UK entering technical recession meant he and his party were “out of touch” with voters, and demanded a general election.

In comments after figures showed the UK economy was in recession, Hunt told broadcasters:

We always expected growth to be weaker while we prioritised tackling inflation, that means higher interest rates, and that is the right thing to do because you can’t have long-term healthy growth with high inflation.

But also for families when there is a cost-of-living crisis, when the cost of their weekly shop is going up, their energy bills are much higher, it is the right thing to do.

The underlying picture here is an economy that is more resilient than most people predicted, inflation is coming down, real wages have been going up now for six months.

If we stick to our guns, independent forecasters say that by the early summer we could start to see interest rates falling and that will be a very important relief for families with mortgages.

Hunt also said that “there are signs the British economy is turning a corner”, claiming:

Forecasters agree that growth will strengthen over the next few years, wages are rising faster than prices, mortgage rates are down and unemployment remains low. Although times are still tough for many families, we must stick to the plan – cutting taxes on work and business to build a stronger economy.

In his January 2023 pledges, prime minister Rishi Sunak promised “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.”

A spokesperson for the Labour Party said: “Jeremy Hunt’s comments are as insulting as they are out of touch. The Conservatives’ failure to take any responsibility for Rishi’s recession show why we need an election.”

The UK economy fell into recession at the end of last year as hard-pressed households cut back on spending in response to soaring interest rates and rising living costs.

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a larger than expected 0.3% in the three months to December after a decline in all main sectors of the economy and a collapse in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas.

It followed a drop of 0.1% in the third quarter, confirming a second consecutive quarter of falling national output – the technical definition of a recession.

Official confirmation of a recession is a blow to the government with an election less than a year away and will embarrass Rishi Sunak, after the prime minister made growing the economy one of his five priorities for government at the start of last year.

Read more here: UK economy in recession as households cut spending

Polls have opened in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections, seen as a final chance for Rishi Sunak to buck predictions that his party is heading for a landslide defeat at the next general election.

The Conservatives are defending majorities of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough in Northants and 11,000 in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire.

But Labour is expected to win both contests. The party has pulled off a string of byelection victories, gaining four Tory seats in a row since July.

The byelection in Wellingborough was called after Peter Bone was successfully recalled by voters in the constituency in December.

Bone’s partner, Helen Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate for the byelection.

In Kingswood, a byelection was called after Chris Skidmore, a leading Tory voice on green issues, resigned in protest against the government’s bill to allow new oil and gas licences to be issued.

Read more here: Polls open for two byelections in testing times for Tories and Labour

Good morning. It is byelection day, against the backdrop of a UK economy that has just entered recession. Here are the headlines …

  • Polls have opened in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections. The Conservatives are defending majorities of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough in Northants and 11,000 in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire, but Labour is hoping to win both contests. We expect results between 2am and 5am.

  • The UK economy fell into recession at the end of last year as hard-pressed households cut back on spending. The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a larger than expected 0.3% in the three months to December after a decline in all main sectors of the economy and a collapse in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas. Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said: “Rishi Sunak’s promise to grow the economy is now in tatters.”

  • A senior German minister has suggested the UK could contribute to a new European nuclear shield if Donald Trump becomes US president again.

  • Home secretary James Cleverly has condemned as “utterly deplorable” a huge recorded rise in antisemitic incidents in the UK since the 7 October Hamas attack inside Israel.

I am expecting a quiet day. The Commons, Lords, Senedd and the Scottish parliament are not sitting. In Stormont there are committee meetings. That is about it for the diary.

It is Martin Belam here with you. You can email me at martin.belam@theguardian.com – especially if you have spotted an error or typo.

Reminder: I know you probably all know this, but please don’t tell us how you voted in the comments section – section 66a of the Representation of the People Act 1983 on the requirement of secrecy makes it an offence to publish information about the ballot before the polls close at 10pm. I have to be on my best behaviour too. Many thanks.

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Police 'extremely concerned' for two missing Scots kids after disappearing at 3am - Daily Record

Police are searching for two kids after they disappeared in the middle of the night from a house in Midlothian.

Hallie Chan, 12, and Sunny Hogg, 14, were last seen within a property on Burnside Road, Gorebridge at around 3am on Thursday, February 15. Hallie is described as having long brown hair and it is unknown what she is wearing.

Sunny is described as having shoulder length blonde hair and they were last seen wearing a grey jacket, grey joggers and white trainers.

Hallie Chan was last seen at 3am on February 15
Hallie Chan was last seen at 3am on February 15

Inspector Cheryl Blanch from Police Scotland said: “Hallie and Sunny are friends and we are extremely concerned for their welfare, particularly given their ages and the fact they have left the house in the early hours of this morning.

“It is vital we trace them as soon as possible and we are asking members of the public in the Gorebridge area to keep a look out for them and report any possible sightings to police immediately.

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“We would also urge Hallie and Sunny if they see this appeal to please get in touch with someone to let us know they are ok.

“Anyone with information is asked to contact Police Scotland on 101, quoting incident number 0398 of Thursday, 15 February, 2024.”

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UK antisemitic hate incidents hit new high in 2023, says charity - BBC

Dad and sonGetty Images

Reports of antisemitic incidents in the UK reached a record high last year, according to figures from a Jewish security charity.

The Community Security Trust (CST) recorded reports of 4,103 anti-Jewish hate incidents in 2023, up from 1,662 in 2022 and almost double the previous record of 2,255 hit in 2021.

Its annual report relies on figures from incidents that are self-reported.

Two-thirds of incidents happened on or after the Hamas attacks on 7 October.

This included 416 incidents reported to the CST, which works to protect British Jews from antisemitism, in the week following the attacks - the largest number than any subsequent week.

The CST said this suggested that the increase "was a celebration of the Hamas attack on Israel, rather than anger at Israel's military response in Gaza."

It also found such incidents in and around British schools have more than tripled since 2022.

Yoni at school
BBC/DAN NELSON

Many Jewish schools have increased security since last October, including King David High School in Manchester.

While pupils feel safe at school, some say they have been subjected to abuse while travelling there and back.

Verbal abuse on the street has become part of daily life for pupils like Yoni.

"A lot of the time I do feel quite afraid walking around with a kippah [skullcap] because it makes me identifiably Jewish," he said. "Personally, when I've been walking down the street I've had stuff shouted at me from cars and it's had quite an impact.

"A few weeks ago I was threatened, reported it, and the police dealt with it."

His friend Akivah has also received abuse while shopping in Manchester.

"Unfortunately for a lot of people it's just a fact of life."

Home Secretary James Cleverly said the government had taken steps to confront the "utterly deplorable" rise in antisemitic abuse including increasing funding for protective security at Jewish schools and places of worship.

The latest figures from some of the UK's largest police forces also showed a significant rise in antisemitic offences in the month following the 7 October attacks.

Greater Manchester Police recorded 74 such incidents compared with 15 during the same period the previous year, while the British Transport Police noted 87 offences - up from eight over the same period in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Police separately recorded 218 antisemitic incidents between 1 and 18 October - up from 15 across the same period last year.

Some forces, including the Met, also recorded a rise in Islamophobic offences.

The biggest increase came from West Yorkshire Police, which reported 49 such incidents in the month following the 7 October attacks - up from 29 in the same time period in 2022.

Benjy Rickman

Rabbi Benjy Rickman, head of religious studies at King David High School, thinks it is "terrifying" that pupils are afraid to use public transport because they are Jewish.

He believes education is the key to tackling antisemitism and has worked with different faith schools across Manchester for more than 10 years.

John Dalziel, the school's head teacher, said that while there had always been a "background of antisemitic comments and antisemitic abuse" aimed at students, he had seen a "spike" since 7 October.

"I think it's important to remember these are children," he said.

"They've got no involvement in what's happening in Israel and Gaza".

Mr Dalziel added that while the school had always had "tight security", it has now taken extra measures to protect staff and students - including having a visible police presence outside its gates.

In November, the government announced £7m in funding to help schools and universities tackle antisemitism.

Of the £7m, £5.5m is now available to be bid for by organisations.

CST's annual report also indicated:

  • University-related antisemitic incidents more than tripled, from 60 in 2022 to 182 in 2023
  • Online antisemitism formed 31% of the 2023 total, compared with 22% of 2022 incidents
  • There was at least one antisemitic incident in every police region in the UK for the first time.

The CST says the main surge in antisemitic hate incidents came after Hamas gunmen killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel on 7 October and took 253 other people hostage.

The Israeli military then launched a campaign in Gaza, and its Hamas-run health ministry says more than 28,500 people have been killed in the territory since then.

CST chief executive Mark Gardner said the report highlights the human impact of antisemitism in the UK.

"Every single one of those reports, it all comes down to people - people asking what sort of future there is," he said.

"This report puts into very dry terms a very human story that is deeply impacting British Jews. "

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