Minggu, 26 November 2023

American bully XLs: Fear of spike in dumped dogs under ban - BBC

Abandoned American Bully XL sat in a suitcase in a field.Meg Broady

Dog rescue centres fear numbers of abandoned bully XL dogs will rise if vets cannot cope with the demands of a ban coming into effect next month.

Owners of the breed will have to have dogs neutered, microchipped, and exempted, or have them euthanised.

If vets do not have the capacity to help, owners may have "nowhere else to turn", the Association of Dogs and Cats Homes (ADCH) has warned.

The government said it took "quick and decisive action" to protect the public.

It comes after the founder of a pet rescue centre told the BBC the government's ban on American bully XLs had led to dogs being abandoned and "killed en masse".

The government decided to ban the breed under the Dangerous Dogs Act 1991 following a rise in fatal attacks.

Owners wishing to keep their dogs have until the end of January 2024 to register them on the Index of Exempted Dogs, and will eventually need to get them microchipped and neutered.

If the dog is less than a year old on 31 January, it must be neutered by the end of the year, but if it is older than a year, it must be neutered by 30 June.

'Postcode lottery'

Owners who choose not to keep their dog must take it to be euthanised by a vet by the end of January and can claim £200 towards the cost.

The ADCH, which is a representative charity for dog and cat rehoming organisations across the UK, said it had many concerns on how the ban would work, "particularly around veterinary capacity for euthanasia and neutering", as well as vets who refused to euthanise healthy dogs on ethical grounds.

"We fear that these factors will result in a postcode lottery on helping owners euthanise or neuter their bully XLs, and could increase abandonment rates for owners that have nowhere else to turn," the charity said.

Rebecca Taylor operating on a cat
Sue Taylor

Rebecca Taylor, a locum vet in Dorset, said she would not be putting down "healthy" bully XLs.

"I use the term healthy - that covers their behaviour and mental health as well as their physical health," she said.

"To me and a lot of other vets, a dog with significant behavioural problems is not a healthy dog.

"But for me - my ethics and morals - I didn't become a vet to put down healthy animals… And for me I can't justify that."

The Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons' Code of Professional Conduct says "no veterinary surgeon is obliged to kill a healthy animal unless required to do so under statutory powers as part of their conditions of employment".

Ms Taylor said she also had concerns it would be difficult for vets to cope with euthanasia and neutering requests in areas where there were more bully XLs.

"When I was working nearer to London, there's more there. If I work up in Middlesbrough, there's more up there," she says.

"I'm just in a rural pocket at the moment where there's not.

"It's not that straightforward to just have dogs traveling across the country to get neutered and then [it] has to be travelling a long way post-surgery, and then if there's any complications after the operation, they'd still need to go to their local vet."

David Martin, an animal welfare advisor
UK Parliament

In October, David Martin, an animal welfare advisor for leading veterinary group IVC Evidensia, told a government committee that in a survey of 200 of new employees, 94% said they would not euthanise a healthy bully XL with no behavioural problems.

He said if the government asked them "to neuter 40,000 Jack Russells in a six-month period" vets would have enough kennel space to house them for the day, but for "40,000 very large dogs" space would be a "limiting factor".

"We would only probably be able to do one or two in a surgery per day, just simply because we haven't got the kennel space to house them while they wake up from their anaesthetics," he added.

From 31 December it will be against the law to sell, abandon, give away, or breed a bully XL, or have one in public without a lead and muzzle.

From 1 February 2024, owning a bully XL dog in England and Wales without an exemption certificate will be a criminal offence, resulting in an unlimited fine and seizure of the dog.

American bully XLs in rescue centres will either be "stuck" there for life or put down after the December deadline, Ms Taylor says, as rehoming them will be illegal.

An American bully on a lead
Reuters

Owners wanting to exempt a bully XL will need to pay for a number of things including the application which costs £92.40, third-party public liability insurance and neutering.

Their pets must also be microchipped, which applies to all dogs - regardless of their breeds - by the time they are eight weeks old.

This "chunk of money" that owners weren't anticipating to spend could be a struggle for some, Ms Taylor said.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs advised bully XL owners whose vet had refused to euthanise their dog to ask a different vet, or to discuss with them alternative veterinary practices that they could recommend.

A spokesperson said: "We have taken quick and decisive action to protect the public from tragic dog attacks, with the XL Bully type added to the list of dogs prohibited under the Dangerous Dogs Act.

"Up until 31 January 2024, owners of XL Bully type dogs have the options of applying for a Certificate of Exemption or taking their dog to be euthanised by a vet.

"We are working closely with the police, canine and veterinary experts, and animal welfare groups as we take forward these important measures."

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2023-11-26 07:14:26Z
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Sabtu, 25 November 2023

Tens of thousands march in pro-Palestinian London rally calling for Gaza ceasefire - The Times of Israel

LONDON — A protester was arrested Saturday in London on suspicion of inciting racial hatred, as tens of thousands of people turned out on central London’s streets for a pro-Palestinian march calling for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

The National March for Palestine, which aimed to finish in Whitehall, central London, was the latest in several huge protests staged in the British capital every weekend since the Israel-Hamas war began last month after the terror group’s October 7 atrocities.

Saturday’s protests came on the second day of a precarious four-day lull in fighting that has allowed humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

The Metropolitan Police said it arrested a man on suspicion of inciting racial hatred “near the start of the protest.”

“Officers spotted him carrying a placard with Nazi symbols on it,” police said.

Officers handed out leaflets at the march that sought to clarify what would be deemed an offense, after the force faced pressure from senior government officials to be tougher on displays of antisemitism at the protests.

Protester hold flags and placards as they take part in a pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel demonstration in Trafalgar Square in London, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. (AP/Alberto Pezzali)

“Anyone who is racist or incites hatred against any group should expect to be arrested. As should anyone who supports Hamas or any other banned organization,” said Deputy Assistant Police Commissioner Ade Adelekan.

“We will not tolerate anyone who celebrates or promotes acts of terrorism – such as the killing or kidnap of innocent people – or who spreads hate speech,” he added.

The force said 1,500 officers were deployed to police the march.

Earlier this month, the UK’s former interior minister, Suella Braverman, came under heavy criticism when she described pro-Palestinian protesters as “hate marchers.” Critics accused her of inflaming tensions, and she was sacked by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak soon after.

New UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, a former prime minister, made a trip to Israel this past week and visited Kibbutz Be’eri, among the southern Israeli communities hit hard by Hamas’s shock October 7 onslaught in which thousands of terrorists invaded Israel and killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians in their homes and at an outdoor music festival.

They also took some 240 hostages, 24 of whom were freed Friday in two separate deals. Some 50 Israeli hostages — children, their mothers and other women — are set to be freed overall over the four days, during which the IDF is halting its military campaign to destroy Hamas in Gaza, with three Palestinian security prisoners to be freed in exchange for each hostage.

Hamas freed 13 Israeli hostages Friday, and another 11 foreign nationals from Thailand and the Philippines in a separate deal, Hamas’s backers.

According to the Israel-Hamas deal, the truce can potentially be extended for one extra day for each additional group of 10 more hostages freed by Hamas.

On Saturday, Hamas delayed the release of the slated second group of Israeli hostages as the fragile truce deal hung in the balance.

Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, November 25, 2023. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)

In Paris on Saturday, a march staged for the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women drew both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli activists, as well as other groups.

Some protesters, waving Palestinian flags and posters reading “Free Palestine,” walked in a show of solidarity with “Gaza and Palestine’s women who are being murdered.”

A group of Jewish women also joined the march to denounce crimes committed by Hamas, including rapes and killings, chanting, “We are women, we are proud, we are Jewish and we are angry.”

Meanwhile, some pro-Palestinian protests were organized over the weekend in France’s major cities including Strasbourg, Lyon and Marseille.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an Islamist group, also protested Saturday outside the Egyptian Embassy in London.

Tens of thousands of people are also expected to take part in a march organized by the Campaign Against Antisemitism organization on Sunday to show solidarity with the Jewish community in the UK.

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2023-11-25 19:17:44Z
2625174133

Gaza protest: Tens of thousands march in London calling for ceasefire - BBC.com

PA Media Pro-Palestinian protesters in central LondonPA Media
Organisers of the protest estimated that some 300,000 people attended

Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators have marched through central London calling for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

It was the first London march since Armistice Day, when more than 100 counter-protesters were arrested.

Six people were arrested - others were detained for setting off flares.

The march coincided with a four-day pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas, aimed at freeing Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

On the second day of the truce on Saturday - and as more hostages were expected to be released, Hamas announced it was delaying the process. It accused Israel of breaking the terms of the deal by not allowing enough aid to reach northern Gaza. Israel has denied this.

Organisers of the protest, which marched from Park Lane to Whitehall, estimated that some 300,000 people attended. The Metropolitan Police did not give a number.

Four people were arrested on suspicion of inciting racial hatred and two on suspicion of supporting a proscribed organisation.

The Met said the breakaway group from the main central London protest had been detained to be searched after marching up Whitehall and setting off flares, which it said had previously been used against officers.

The force said it was using powers under the Public Order Act to prevent further marches on Saturday.

The Met has been under pressure for weeks over its handling of the now-regular demonstrations, with pressure from senior politicians for officers to come down harder on alleged displays of antisemitism.

Ahead of the protest, police said they would issue leaflets warning people about words or images that could break the law.

The force said some 1,500 officers would be on the streets on Saturday with instructions to protect war memorials following criticism that police have not stopped protesters climbing on them.

The Met also said it was planning to position Arabic-speaking officers on the march, backed up in its central control room with lawyers to advise on whether specific phrases break the law.

Reuters Pro-Palestinian protesters at WhitehallReuters
The protest, taking place on the second day of a four-day pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas, is calling for a permanent ceasefire
A leaflet given out to demonstrators
Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, said the leaflets "reassert what everybody knows"
Reuters A man carrying a pro-Palestinian placardReuters
Some 1,500 officers were on the streets on Saturday, the Met Police said
Reuters AReuters
Officers have been told to protect war memorials following criticism that police have not stopped protesters climbing on them
PA Media A woman with a microphone at the crowd in central LondonPA Media
The protest in central London is the first since Armistice Day
PA Media A pro-Palestinian protester with Gaza written on her cheekPA Media
Marches have also been held in Glasgow (pictured) and Cardiff
PA Media A woman in a crowd with a placard saying "say their names"PA Media

Protesters carrying Palestinian flags were seen with placards demanding a permanent ceasefire in the conflict, while some referenced the slogan "from the river to the sea".

The language is interpreted by Israel and most Jewish groups as an expression of a desire to see Israel erased from the world, though pro-Palestinian activists contest this, saying it refers to "the right of all Palestinians to freedom, equality and justice".

So far, the temporary truce is still holding and follows weeks of fighting and Israeli bombardments of Gaza, with the conflict sparked by Hamas's unprecedented cross-border attack in southern Israel that saw 1,200 people killed.

Speaking at London's march, a pro-Palestinian protester played down the long-term significance of the temporary ceasefire.

Shaun, 33, from north London, said: "I don't know what's going to come from it, I don't know if it's positive, but I know full well that once this truce and temporary ceasefire are done they (Israel) are going to continue bombing and we're going to be right back where we were, so I'm not holding my breath."

Marches are also being held in Glasgow and Cardiff.

Asked about the Met's leaflets, march organiser Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, said police had been placed under "considerable pressure" by politicians to be more aggressive in their policing of the demonstration.

"The leaflets reassert what everybody knows, which is that there are laws against hate speech, there are laws for showing support for proscribed hate organisations - so I'm not sure what the leaflets add," he said.

Separately, a different protest was held by the Islamist group Hizb-ut-Tahrir outside the Egyptian embassy.

It is the first by the group since 21 October, when video emerged showing a man chanting "jihad", prompting an outcry from politicians. The Met found no offences were identified from the clip.

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2023-11-25 18:52:00Z
2625174133

When first snow of winter 2023 could fall in Bristol following freezing temperatures - Bristol Live

The first snow of winter could fall in parts of Bristol next week, according to BBC Weather. Temperatures have dipped on Saturday (November 25) with lows of two degrees expected this evening and overnight.

But BBC Weather suggests the white stuff could fall early in Bristol on Friday, December 1 from 6am to 9am. The sleet is part of a wider weather forecast for sleet and very cold weather in the county.

Meanwhile, the Met Office has not forecast any snow in Bristol yet but agrees that temperatures will be freezing on Friday. Both the Met Office and BBC Weather have the mercury dipping to -3C at times.

READ MORE: Homeowners' fury at being forced to dump rubbish outside new homes

READ MORE: Cosy Bristol pub serves one of the best pints of Guinness in the UK

The news comes after much of the UK saw sub-zero temperatures, including Bristol, Gloucestershire and Somerset with only the north of Scotland and parts of the east and southwest of England staying widely above freezing overnight.

Speaking about the warm weather, Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth said: “There will be a crisp but sunny start to the weekend for many areas and it will still be a little cloudy across the east coast. Showers will come and go across parts of Norfolk as well as northern Scotland.”

Many parts of Scotland are expected to see a maximum temperature of around 4C with the rest of the UK reaching a high of 6C or 7C before dropping back as night falls with the east of England likely to see another frost. A rainy day is forecast for many on Sunday and Monday before becoming colder again with widespread overnight frosts before some brighter skies on Tuesday and the risk of snow in places later in the week.

Sleet is expected in Bristol on Friday, December 1

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Harris said: “Early next week, following a brief more unsettled interlude, we expect to see a return to widely cold but quiet conditions. Some rain, or showers, are likely to affect some parts of the east coast, and these could turn increasingly wintry over higher ground areas towards the middle of the week.”

He added: “It does look as though there will be a trend towards something more unsettled, as areas of cloud and rain attempt to move across the UK. At present, the most likely outcome beyond midweek is that rain from the west slowly moves east, with snow possible over higher ground, and a continued risk of showers over eastern parts.

“However, there is a chance that a more active weather system arrives from the southwest, which would bring more widespread rain, stronger winds, and the potential for more significant snowfall should the air over the UK become sufficiently cold ahead of it.”

The latest Met Office weather forecast for the West Country

Looking ahead to the turn of the month
Looking ahead to the turn of the month

Today: A widespread frosty start leads into a fine, crisp day with hazy sunshine and calm winds across the region. Thicker cloud begins to build into the far west of the region into the early evening. Remaining rather cold. Maximum temperature 7 °C.

Tonight: Cloud continues to thicker cloud from the west overnight, with some light rain arriving towards dawn. Generally milder than previous nights, although patchy frost in the far east still possible. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Sunday: Persistent rain spreads eastwards during the morning, remaining cloudy but turning drier in the west later. Temperatures up on previous days though still feeling cold under the cloud and rain. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Showers moving briskly through the region on Monday as the winds pick up before turning drier, calmer and colder later in the week with some hazy sunny spells.

UK long range weather forecast (November 29 - December 8)

Colder than average conditions overall continue to be most likely overall. Winds are likely to often be from the north, with a mixture of cold, quiet periods and some more showery episodes with rain, sleet and possibly hill snow.

Any sleet and snow showers would be most likely to affect northern and eastern coastal districts. There remains a chance of more widespread snow spreading up from the south during at least the first part of this period, should this occur strong winds or even gales are possible across many parts, especially the south.

Colder weather could persist throughout, however towards the end of the period there is an increasing likelihood of an upward trend in temperatures as new areas of cloud and rain attempt to move in from the Atlantic.

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2023-11-25 14:30:00Z
2587709467

The people who will decide the next general election - The Telegraph

Election strategists cannot resist constructing an archetype that their party needs to win over. For Tony Blair it was Mondeo Man, for Boris Johnson it was Waitrose Woman, David Cameron had Worcester Woman and Margaret Thatcher had Essex Man.

In reality, of course, there are multiple demographic groups that make up target voters for each party, and as speculation mounts of an election as soon as May next year, they are busily gathering data to define them. 

The Tories have Isaac Levido, the campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide, coming back full-time in the party’s headquarters, it was announced this week.

The Telegraph, though, has already done the hard work for them, by teaming up with pollsters and strategic consultants JL Partners to identify the voters that will decide whether Rishi Sunak or Sir Keir Starmer leads Britain into the second half of the decade.

The research shows that Starmer can bank on around 14.7 million hardcore Labour voters, compared with just 8.3 million rock solid Tory voters, but he could still lose the election if those solid Labour votes pile up in safe seats rather than in marginals.

That’s why both sides will be fighting so hard to win over the four categories of undecided voters identified here. If Sunak could win all of them over, which this month’s Cabinet reshuffle and Autumn Statement tax cut were designed to help achieve, he would have 17.5 million votes.

Altogether, the six groups detailed here account for 32.2 million voters, which would represent a typical general election turnout from an electorate of 46.5 million.

For the Conservatives and Labour, the most important factors are the political issues that matter most to each archetype, and the constituency that they live in. 

By making a cold calculation of how many votes they can scoop up by tailoring individual policies to voters’ concerns, they can fine-tune their manifestos and campaign strategies.

And by cross-referencing those voter concerns with geographical areas, they can decide where to concentrate resources by identifying constituencies that will become swing seats in 2024 and deprioritising safe seats or lost causes.

In its research, JL Partners has also built up a fascinating picture of not only where voters live and what they care about, but also who they are: where they shop, what they watch on TV, what kind of car they drive (or not), where they go on holiday, how much they earn and what kind of home they live in.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, says: “Come 2024, both parties will be aiming to win Middle England. But at this election, Middle England has a few different faces. 

“If you are Rishi Sunak, you are after those who voted Conservative in 2019 who now either say they do not know how they would vote or that they are opting for Reform UK. This group has very socially conservative values and doesn’t have much time for Labour. If the Tories win them back, then suddenly Labour’s lead is significantly reduced and the election looks a lot closer.”

If Sunak proves that he can walk the walk as well as talk the talk on immigration, he could secure up to 1.9 million votes among people for whom immigration is top of their list of election issues.

They are people who voted Leave, two-thirds of them are over 55 and almost eight in 10 are homeowners, with the majority having already paid off their mortgage.

Despite being more asset-rich than the population as a whole, they often struggle to pay their bills, with four in 10 living on an income of £25,000 or less, making this group slightly less affluent than average.

Many of them live in former Red Wall seats where they lent their vote to Boris Johnson in 2019 to “Get Brexit Done”, but are now wavering or considering not voting at all.

Because this group ranks immigration so highly, some are talking about switching to Reform UK, the re-badged Brexit Party now led by Richard Tice after Nigel Farage stepped down in 2021.

For Sunak, the difference between winning and losing marginal seats could well be determined by whether the Right-wing vote is split between the Tories and Reform in seats like Blyth Valley, which switched from Labour to the Tories in 2019 with a majority of just 712

The Brexit Party polled more than 3,000 votes and came third that year; if its successor could persuade just 2 per cent of Tory voters to switch to Reform it would be enough, based on the 2019 result, to allow Labour through the middle.

The task for Sunak if he wants to win over these voters is clear: get migrant-processing flights to Rwanda off the ground before the next election, and, if necessary, make a manifesto pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. The emergency legislation he announced to keep the Rwanda plan alive after the Supreme Court ruled it illegal is now all the more important if he wants to count on this group’s support.

Like Stop the Boats Steve, Retiring Rita is a 2019 Conservative voter who has become disenchanted with the Tories and currently does not know how or whether she will vote.

For her, the NHS and the cost of living are priorities, and the way of winning her over is less straightforward than simply cracking down on immigration.

This group is far more diverse than the Stop the Boats archetype, with 41 per cent working full-time, 33 per cent retired and an even distribution between working class and middle class. Despite its name, the female/male split is 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

Although 60 per cent of them live in rural constituencies, 42 per cent live in London or within commuting distance of London. 

Three-quarters of this group own their own homes, of whom more than four in 10 have paid off their mortgage, and car ownership is higher than in the population at large.

If Sunak is to win back these voters, he will have to restore the feelgood factor on the economy, which he hopes to do by bringing inflation down further. This would allow the Bank of England to consider cutting interest rates in the medium term and increase consumer confidence.

Inflation has had such a profound effect on the cost of living that people will still be paying higher prices in 2024 than they were in 2022, even if inflation does continue to fall, but optimism plays such a huge part in voters’ economic outlook that simply showing that the worst is over might be enough to restore the Tories’ reputation for competence.

Showing real progress on the NHS will be a tougher nut to crack, with waiting lists predicted to rise to 8 million in the coming months, rather than falling as Sunak promised they would do. This is the task given to new Health Secretary Victoria Atkins. 

Toyota Tony is the definitive swing voter at the next election. He drove his sensible, reliable and affordable Japanese car to the polling station in 2019 and voted Tory because he liked the look of Boris Johnson, but he now feels let down and is intending to vote Labour or Lib Dem.

His biggest concern is the economy and the cost of living, as he is a middle-class working man with a mortgage to pay off, and he blames the Conservatives, and in particular Liz Truss, for the mess that the economy is now in.

There will be a three-way fight over the 2.2 million voters who fall into this category, as they are mulling over a vote for Labour or the Lib Dems, while the Tories will still hope they can win some of them back if Sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt can turn the economy around.

The bad news for Sunak is that Labour leads in the opinion polls on the economy, the cost of living and the NHS – another key concern for this group. Number 10 might well have had this group in mind with its centrist reshuffle last week.

Expect all three parties to target these voters in constituencies like High Peak in Derbyshire, which has changed hands three times in the past 18 years and is currently held by the Tories with a majority of just 590.

Until 2010, the Lib Dems were pulling in more than 20 per cent of the vote in High Peak: their vote share plunged after they went into coalition with the Conservatives, but they will hope that they can continue recent strong showings in by-elections and pick up votes from disaffected Tories who cannot bring themselves to vote Labour.

Losing this group would hit Sunak particularly hard: with a quarter of them earning £50,000 to £70,000 and a tenth earning £100,000 or more, this should be solid Conservative territory.

Just as Sunak risks losing millions of 2019 voters in the form of Toyota Tony, so Starmer risks losing millions of 2019 Labour voters characterised by Remainer Ruth.

As things stand, this group of 3.2 million people – enough to tip the balance in Starmer’s favour on their own – are talking about voting Labour but their allegiance is soft.

Many of them preferred Jeremy Corbyn to Starmer or are first-time voters with Left-wing views who chanted for Corbyn at Glastonbury in 2017. 

The Israel-Hamas war has added a further complication to Starmer’s ability to keep these voters on board, as they are troubled by his stance on the conflict and his refusal to call for a ceasefire, and many will have attended pro-Palestine marches in recent weeks.

Their strong views on Gaza, coupled with their hatred of Brexit, make the Lib Dems an attractive alternative.

Ruth is typically a city-dwelling graduate who lives in a rented home, uses public transport and is under 35, and she is also considering voting Green or, if she lives outside England, SNP or Plaid Cymru.

Her biggest priority is the NHS, though the cost of living is also a concern and net zero is firmly on her radar.

Ruth likes to treat herself with groceries from Waitrose and enjoys city breaks in places like Copenhagen, where she will stay in an Airbnb apartment.

Starmer will need to hang on to this group if he wants to regain marginal seats like Kensington in west London, where Labour’s Emma Dent Coad lost her seat to Conservative Felicity Buchan in 2019 by just 150 votes. The Lib Dems and the Greens came third and fourth respectively, and a defection from Labour to either of these parties could be enough to ruin Labour’s chances.

The most solid block of Tory votes is personified by M&S Mike, a middle-aged, middle-class man who drives his BMW to Marks & Spencer to do his shopping.

Mike lives in the East or South East, in constituencies like Southend West (Tory majority 14,459), Beaconsfield (Tory majority 15,712) and Maldon (where tourism minister Sir John Whittingdale has a majority of 30,041).

But he also lives in places like Chesham and Amersham, where Tory MP Cheryl Gillan held a majority of 16,223 before her death in 2021, which was wiped out by the Lib Dems with a 25 per cent swing at the resulting by-election. 

If Sunak is to win back seats like Chesham and Amersham, which have been lost in by-elections since 2019, he will need M&S Mike and his friends to turn out to vote. The Lib Dems’ victory in 2021 was achieved with a turnout of just 52 per cent, compared with the 77 per cent who voted in 2019. Thousands of Tory voters appear to have stayed at home to register their disgruntlement (Labour came fourth with a pathetic 622 votes in the by-election, suggesting most of their supporters voted tactically to get the Lib Dems in), so if Sunak can tempt them back to the polling booths he stands a chance of stealing these seats back.

M&S Mike, like Stop the Boats Steve, places immigration at or near the top of his list of priorities for the next election, which emphasises why it is so important for Sunak to show a firm hand on the small boats crisis, and why he had, until recently, been keeping the tough-talking Suella Braverman in place as home secretary despite criticism from Tory centrists.

If M&S Mike and his friends stay at home on polling day, Sunak will be on the wrong end of an almighty Labour landslide.

JL Partners The biggest archetype of all is represented by NHS Nicky, and the good news for Starmer is that she is solidly Labour.

Nicky (though this group is almost evenly split between men and women) is typically in her early 40s or younger, works in the public sector and lives in the north of England or a Labour-supporting London borough. Like Remainer Ruth, her biggest concern is the NHS, which might also be her employer.

She uses public transport if she can, but drives a Toyota or a Kia to work if she does not live on a bus or train route. By shopping at discount store Lidl, she is able to put aside enough money for an annual holiday to a sunny destination like the Algarve, flying with Ryanair or on a Tui package deal.

NHS Nicky can be found living in constituencies like Liverpool Walton (Labour majority 30,520), Manchester Gorton (Labour majority 30,339) or Tottenham, where shadow foreign secretary David Lammy has a 30,175 majority.

JL Partners calculates that 14.7 million people fall into this group, providing Starmer with a launchpad for victory if he can win over just one of the four groups of floating voters.

James Johnson of JL Partners says there is one caveat, however, that might make the various groups meaningless.

He says: “Although it is unlikely, if Labour really does maintain a 15-plus percentage point lead through to election day, then these segments may well fall to one side. 

“When parties win big, they ride a wave of general positive feeling almost regardless of how the exact contours of the electorate look. In that scenario, a red wave will raise the tide pretty evenly.”


JL Partners is publishing this research to coincide with the launch of its new 20:24 offer, providing research and strategic advice on elections taking place globally next year – including Britain and the US – that will impact financial markets and policy decisions around the world

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2023-11-25 07:00:00Z
CBMiZWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRlbGVncmFwaC5jby51ay9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDIzLzExLzI1L3RoZS1wZW9wbGUtd2hvLXdpbGwtZGVjaWRlLXRoZS1uZXh0LWdlbmVyYWwtZWxlY3Rpb24v0gEA