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The Tories are facing wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities evaporating overnight and Sir Keir Starmer claiming he was “redrawing the political map”.
Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Labour took Mid Bedfordshire from the Tories for the first time ever.
While in Tamworth, the party saw the second biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in a by-election in post-war history.
Former chancellor George Osborne warned the record defeats spell “armageddon” for the Conservatives at the general election.
Nadine Dorries won her Mid Bedfordshire seat in 2019 with a majority of 24,664, and the Conservatives have held Mid Bedfordshire since 1931.
The Conservatives were defending a 19,634 majority in Tamworth, but Labour candidate Sarah Edwards won the seat by a margin of 1,316 votes.
Ms Edwards said the people of Tamworth had “made it clear it’s time for change”.
“Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it,” said Sir Keir.
A Conservative loss in both is a major setback for Mr Sunak and sets Labour on course for a major win in the next general election.
Labour “made history”
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party’s winning candidate for Mid Bedfordshire had “not only won” but “made history”.
Appearing alongside Alistair Strathern at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “What a fantastic candidate… He has not only won here, he’s made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already.”
Thanking Labour campaigners, he said: “Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.
“This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.
“It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory Government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.”
What the by-election double whammy means for Rishi Sunak
In the space of 30 minutes in the early hours of Friday morning the Conservatives lost Tamworth – which it held with a majority of 19,634 in 2019 – and then Mid Bedfordshire, where there had been a massive 24,664 vote cushion.
The Tories expected a difficult night, in part because governing parties often suffer a by-election backlash but also because of the controversies that led to the two vacancies.
But the defeats cannot be shrugged off, especially not with a general election next year. Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.
Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.
The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Mr Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture.
He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country. With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.
But the state of the public finances could restrict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election.
And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.
Sir Keir Strarmer: “Voters have turned their back on a failed Tory government"
Sir Keir Starmer spoke in Mid Bedfordshire following Labour’s double by-election win there and in Tamworth.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.
Making a short speech about the “incredible” by-election Starmer said: “It is clear the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government.”
He added that the result showed voters are “crying out for change”.
Recap: Labour win two key by-elections
Sir Keir Starmer claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by overturning huge Tory majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire and dealing a double by-election blow to Rishi Sunak.
The result in the “red wall” Midlands seat saw a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour. Polling guru Prof John Curtice said “no government has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth”.
The result in Nadine Dorries’ old seat was the single largest majority overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945.
Sarah Edwards of Labour gives a victory speech after being declared the Member of Parliament for Tamworth following Thursday's by-election.
Voters are ‘happy’ with Rishi Sunak, claims Tory chair – who insists he is staying on
Greg Hands said he believes people are “happy with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister” despite the Tories’ two humiliating by-election defeats overnight.
He said that “legacy issues” that “predate” Sunak’s time at No 10 have caused the two by-elections.
Hands also argued that there was “a lot of fury” among voters about the background to the two by-elections – the exit of Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher.
Asked whether he was considering his position, Mr Hands told Sky News said: “No, I’m going to be looking at the dynamics and the operation of those by-elections but I think we had a very good campaign, we had good candidates, we just need to find a way of incentivising Conservatives to turn up to vote next year at the general election.”
Tory MP demands ‘far-reaching changes’
The Tories need to make “far-reaching major changes now” in the wake of the party’s two crushing by-election losses, one of its right-wing MPs has warned.
Former minister Andrea Jenkyns – a big Boris Johnson supporter – wrote on social media: “Voter apathy is evident yet again in both the by-elections, low turnout … We need to make far reaching major changes now to instil confidence in the Conservative voters.”
Still no enthusiasm for Labour, claims Tory chairman
Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands said he does not “see any enthusiasm for Labour” despite the party’s victories, adding that turnout had been low.
He said he had campaigned in both seats, telling Times Radio: “I don’t think a single person came to the door to say that despite all the problems people are facing, that Labour and Sir Keir Starmer were the solution to their problems.
“So I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour … But clearly we need to reflect on that and we need to continue to deliver against our priorities and make sure that people see that Rishi Sunak is doing a very good job as prime minister.”
Armageddon coming for Tories’, says George Osborne
George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, had warned earlier in the night that losing Mid-Bedfordshire — a Tory seat since 1931 — would mean “Armageddon is coming for the Tory party”.
His podcast co-host Ed Balls, the former Labour shadow chancellor, said: “If Labour was to win Tamworth and mid-Beds it’s a political earthquake.”
Tories ‘staring general election defeat in face’, says John Curtice
Prof Curtice told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”
He added that the result shows the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.
Prof Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested Mr Sunak was on course for general election defeat.
“This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”
Sunak ‘staring defeat in the face’ after double by-election blow
Read this joint report from Archie Mitchell and Kate Devlin:
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmluZGVwZW5kZW50LmNvLnVrL25ld3MvdWsvcG9saXRpY3MvYnktZWxlY3Rpb25zLXJlc3VsdHMtbGl2ZS10YW13b3J0aC1taWQtYmVkZm9yZHNoaXJlLWIyNDMyNjY4Lmh0bWzSAQA?oc=5
2023-10-20 08:13:47Z
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