Kamis, 03 Agustus 2023

Met Office issues yellow weather warning for travel disruption and power cuts - Wales Online

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for wind covering a large part of Wales. The warning is for Saturday, August 5, and warns of "unseasonably windy weather". The warning is in place from 6am to 9pm with gusts of up to 65mph forecast in parts.

The full warning reads: "Unseasonably windy conditions, accompanied by showers or longer spells of rain, will affect parts of England and Wales during Saturday. The highest winds are likely to affect Irish Sea coastal areas from early morning, pushing gradually south and east, and spreading inland, so that by the afternoon English Channel coasts will also see some very windy conditions.

"Widely, inland gusts of 35-40mph are possible, with a risk of 45-50 mph especially across parts of south Wales and southwest England. Gusts are expected to reach 50-55 mph in coastal areas, perhaps up to 60-65 mph in the most exposed coastal areas of Wales and southwest of England. Later in the afternoon and through the early evening, wind strengths will begin to slowly ease from the west."

Read more: Welsh beach named among best in world

The warning for wind comes just a day after a thunderstorm and heavy warning for most of Wales. The new warning says that the strong winds pose a "risk of disruption to travel and outdoor activities."

It also adds that there is a good chance of longer journey times or cancellations as road, rail, air and ferry services are affected. There is also a chance that some roads and bridges could close and power cuts and impact on mobile phone coverage are also possible. There is a slight chance of some damage to buildings, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as to temporary structures and tents.

Areas covered by the warning:

  • Blaenau Gwent
  • Bridgend
  • Caerphilly
  • Cardiff
  • Carmarthenshire
  • Ceredigion
  • Gwynedd
  • Merthyr Tydfil
  • Monmouthshire
  • Neath Port Talbot
  • Newport
  • Pembrokeshire
  • Powys
  • Rhondda Cynon Taf
  • Swansea
  • Torfaen
  • Vale of Glamorgan
The area covered by the warning

The Met Office forecast for Wales

Friday:

Mainly dry for most with a mixture of cloudy skies and occasional sunny spells, these most prolonged in western coastal areas. Breezy at times but winds easing later. Feeling warmer. Maximum temperature 21 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Strong winds and heavy rain arriving on Friday night, and staying windy on Saturday with coastal gales possible and scattered showers. Drier thereafter with bright or sunny spells. Feeling cool.

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2023-08-03 09:10:32Z
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Bank of England poised to raise UK interest rates to 5.25% - The Guardian

The Bank of England is poised to push interest rates to 5.25% on Thursday as it tries to bring down inflation with a 14th consecutive increase in the cost of borrowing.

Amid government concerns that cost of living pressures are proving persistent, the Bank is likely to push rates up by 0.25 percentage points to a fresh 15-year high.

The consumer prices index (CPI) fell last month, but remained well above most industrial nations at 7.9% and almost four times the Bank’s 2% target.

Speculation that the monetary policy committee (MPC) will take a tougher stance and increase rates by 0.5 percentage points is a minority view in the City, according to a poll of economic analysts.

Threadneedle Street has been rapidly increasing rates from their record low since December 2021, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sending inflationary shock waves through the global economy.

But fears that the UK economy is suffering a slowdown in activity in response to higher borrowing costs means the MPC’s next moves will be cautious, analysts said.

UK property prices are falling at their fastest rate since 2009, according to the Nationwide, while homeowners are increasingly signing up to longer mortgage terms to cope with higher monthly bills, according to housebuilder Taylor Wimpey.

The company said market conditions weakened between April and June as interest rates climbed. The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate is 6.85%, while the five-year rate is 6.37%, according to Moneyfacts.

Business surveys have shown private sector activity slowing across the UK and most of Europe as millions of consumers and businesses struggle to cope with the extra costs of borrowing.

A fall in demand for exports, especially from the Asia-Pacific region and China, has also hurt the UK’s manufacturing industry, which recorded its worst month of the year in July.

A closely watched gauge of the factory sector dropped to its lowest level in 2023, and its joint-worst since May 2020, continuing a year-long slump for the industry.

The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.3 in July, showing a sharper downturn than in June.

Rishi Sunak said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling as fast as he expected, but claimed that people can “see light at the end of the tunnel”.

Taking part in a radio call-in hosted by LBC, the prime minister, who has promised to halve inflation from above 10% by the end of the year, said: “I know families are struggling with the cost of living and that’s why I set it out as my first priority to halve inflation, and we’re making progress.

“Is that as fast as I’d like? No. Is it as fast as anyone would like? No.

“But the numbers most recently that we had show that we’re heading in the right direction, inflation is coming down, and I think people can see light at the end of the tunnel.”

Labour accused Sunak of “economic mismanagement” for failing to heed warnings that debt interest costs would balloon in response to rising Bank of England interest rates without a change of policy.

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said a switch to using longer-term loans would have insulated the exchequer from the recent rise in rates, “bringing down UK debt servicing costs by £56bn more than the UK’s main competitors, or around £2,000 per UK household”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent forecaster, said recently that a reliance on short-term loans and debt linked to the retail prices index (RPI) had pushed the UK’s borrowing costs higher than many rival nations.

“That the prime minister was given clear warnings but simply chose to ignore them, is a true illustration of what little regard he has for the public finances,” she said.

Analysts said they expected the MPC to split three ways, with one member voting for a 0.5 percentage point rise, one voting to keep rates on hold and seven supporting a 0.25 percentage point increase.

Mike Riddell, a senior economist at Allianz Global Investors, said a softer stance from the MPC was likely after the economy showed clear signs of faltering.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the Bank was unable to pause further rises until the pressure in the jobs market began to ease and the job vacancy rate fell to more normal levels.

“We estimate that a fall in the job vacancy rate from 3% in May to around 2.5% is required to reduce wage growth to the rates of 3% to 3.5% required for core inflation to fall back to 2%.

“That may require interest rates to rise from 5% now to 5.5% and to stay at their peak for around a year.”

Core inflation, which excludes volatile costs such as energy, food and tobacco, remains close to 7%, indicating that the services industry, which accounts for three-quarters of private sector activity, is still passing on large price rises to customers.

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2023-08-03 04:00:00Z
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'Frightened' abuse victim wants law change as number of sex offenders removed from register revealed - Sky News

Three-quarters of sex offenders who applied to be removed from the sex offenders register last year in England, Wales and Northern Ireland had their requests approved, according to new figures exclusively obtained by Sky News.

In four areas the success rate was 100%.

Offenders have had the right to apply for a review after 15 years on the register since 2012.

But now a Dorset woman who was abused as a child is petitioning MPs to change the law - after she discovered her abuser had been removed from the register, 21 years after his conviction.

"When I was 11 I liked to dance, I liked to pretend I was Mariah Carey with my hairbrush in the mirror," says Laura Stewart, who has waived her right to anonymity to campaign for change.

Showing me a smiling photograph of herself at that age, she adds: "It was a carefree childhood then."

But shortly afterwards the abuse started.

"I remember the first weekend I stayed at his," she says. "I felt uncomfortable straight away. I couldn't explain it being so young.

"But that night - he touched me for the first time. And that continued and progressively got more and more over the course of five and a half to six years.

"It ended when I left home at 16."

Two years later she went to the police.

Her abuser was jailed in 2002 thanks to the evidence she gave in court - and sentenced to life on the sex offenders register.

But earlier this year Laura, who's now 40, found out he'd been removed.

The discovery made her feel sick.

"I felt frightened. I felt frightened for my children and for myself," she says. "There's nothing to stop him pitching up next door. It's horrifying."

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Families of sex offenders in 'trauma'

She adds: "Where is the protection? Where is the justice? Where is the safety that we were told we would have when we were brave enough to give the evidence and commit these offenders to their sentences?

"I feel let down. All those police promises - stand up, give evidence, we'll protect you - have been trampled on."

Laura only discovered what had happened after she saw her abuser in the local area and contacted Dorset Police herself.

"I've seen him a few times," she says. "The first time, I was with my two young daughters in a shopping centre, and he was in the store that we were in. And I panicked, and there was a wave of just complete fear.

"The next time I was out at a farm just picking fruit and I saw him laughing and joking."

Laura is now petitioning parliament to ban sex offenders sentenced to life on the register from applying for removal.

Signing the sex offenders register means regularly updating the police about your address, bank details, travel plans and any children you live with.

The right to appeal 15 years after release from custody was introduced in 2012 following a Supreme Court ruling that the lack of such a mechanism breached the European Convention on Human Rights - in particular the right to privacy.

'Disappointed and appalled'

The then home secretary, Theresa May, said the government was "disappointed and appalled" by the ruling, but told MPs there was no possibility of appeal.

Instead, she promised to investigate the creation of a British Bill of Rights, to assert "that it is parliament that makes our laws, not the courts".

Plans for a British Bill of Rights have been dropped by the current administration.

Mrs May also claimed the "bar" for removal from the sex offenders' register would be "deliberately set…as high as possible".

Theresa May in the Commons

But new figures obtained by Sky News show that last year, the 25 police forces who responded to our request for information received 394 applications for removal.

Of those, 304 were approved - a success rate of 77% and a figure which has remained largely consistent over the past five years.

Some forces - including Wiltshire, Suffolk, Northern Ireland and Leicestershire - reported a figure of 100%, although the forces noted that the number of applications was low - with eight cases in Wiltshire, seven in Suffolk, 10 in Leicestershire and six in Northern Ireland.

The highest numbers were for the Metropolitan Police, the largest force in the country - 136 applied for removal last year and 127 were approved - an approval rate of 93%.

The National Police Chiefs' Council points out that the most recent published figures show there were 66,641 registered sex offenders being managed in the community in March 2022 - and "only a relatively small number" are entitled to appeal.

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'Hidden victims' of sex offenders

'People need to have light at the end of the tunnel'

Some legal experts argue that leaving the register can be an important part of rehabilitation.

"People can reform, even those who commit the most egregious acts", says Akram Mula, a criminal defence solicitor, who argues there are rigorous processes in place to check individuals no longer pose a danger to the public.

"We need to acknowledge the success of proper, well-thought-through rehabilitation programmes," she adds.

"Individuals who have managed to successfully rehabilitate need to have a light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise they've got no goal to work towards."

But the Conservative MP Mark Fletcher, who has campaigned to tighten the law around sex offenders changing their names, says there needs to be a wider review of the whole process.

Mark Fletcher
Image: Mark Fletcher MP

He says: "It does feel like the system has slipped more in favour of those who are committing the offence than the other parties involved - the victims, and the wider community.

"Those figures you have obtained seem far too high. Sex offenders shouldn't effectively have the automatic right to come off the register after 15 years.

"Having the sex offenders register is a good thing for the public - it gives them reassurance and it gives victims a level of safety too - but I'm not sure it's working as intended."

Read more:
Thousands prosecuted for changing details without telling police
New compensation in England for victims of child sex abuse

'Police must be satisfied they no longer pose a risk'

Laura is hoping MPs could find a way to change the law.

Her petition needs 100,000 signatures to be debated in the House of Commons.

She says: "These are our worst category of sex offenders. I understand the European Court of Human Rights affords them the right to privacy. But where is that repaid for the victims?"

Her local police force insists protecting the public remains the top priority under the rules as they stand.

A spokesperson for Dorset Police said: "The process for convicted sex offenders applying to come off the register is governed by national legislation and guidance.

"Under this legislation, which is supported by case law, offenders who have been the subject of an indefinite notification can apply to be released from their notification requirements.

"Police must be satisfied that they no longer pose a risk to society having considered a range of factors, which is clearly set out in the guidance.

"Protection of the public remains the priority and this decision is carefully considered.

"We have a robust and lengthy process that our offender managers follow prior to the application being reviewed.

"The decision to end an individual's indefinite notification requirement is made in light of the individual circumstances and the risk.

"In these cases where the offender has been deemed to no longer pose a risk, they will be removed from the register and will no longer be subject to requirements.

"This can be reviewed if new information comes to light."

'No plans' to change the law

The National Police Chiefs' Council Lead for the Management of Violent and Sexual Offenders, Assistant Chief Constable Jonny Blackwell, also argues the existing rules are some of the world's toughest.

He said: "Managing the potential risk posed by registered sexual offenders within the community is a complex area of work for police. We work closely with partners as part of a multi-agency approach to manage these offenders.

"Applications for sexual offenders to be removed from their notification requirements are the subject of careful scrutiny by the police force that manages them.

"Each application is thoroughly assessed and decided upon by a senior officer of Superintendent rank working to the Home Office's legislative framework and guidance, including seeking the views of victims where appropriate.

"UK policing has some of the most advanced and stringent tools in the world to manage registered sex offenders and I am confident that forces across the country are, each day, effectively managing the risk posed to the public by such individuals."

The Home Office says it has no plans to change the law at present.

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2023-08-03 02:41:42Z
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Rabu, 02 Agustus 2023

Anti-vaxxer who accused Matt Hancock of murder found guilty of harassment - Sky News

An anti-vaccine protester who accused former health secretary Matt Hancock of murdering people during the COVID pandemic has been found guilty of harassment.

Geza Tarjanyi, 62, from Leyland in Lancashire, shoulder-barged Mr Hancock and "shouted ridiculous conspiracy theories" on two separate occasions on 19 and 24 January.

Senior district judge Paul Goldspring said Tarjanyi "deliberately intimidated and harassed" the MP.

Following the verdict, Mr Hancock said: "I am relieved at this guilty verdict. This individual didn't just attack me, but he's attacked several MPs and other public servants.

"We in the UK pride ourselves as a global symbol of democracy, built around respectful debate to build a more inclusive and harmonious society. Violence against anyone for their political beliefs is unacceptable.

"I would like to thank the CPS, Transport for London and the British Transport Police who have been fantastic throughout."

Mr Hancock previously told Westminster Magistrates' Court he feared the man would push him down an escalator during a confrontation over his handling of the pandemic.

Giving evidence, Mr Hancock said: "As a public figure, I can't recall a time when I felt as intimidated as this."

During the first incident on 19 January, Mr Hancock was walking past an anti-vaccination protest near parliament with a member of his staff when Tarjanyi filmed him while asking why he had "killed so many people", before shoulder barging him, the court heard.

The MP for West Suffolk said he felt "physically intimidated" and "needed to get to a place of safety" during the five-minute interaction, describing the defendant as being "completely unreasonable".

Energy minister says it would be 'mad' not to issue oil and gas licences - politics latest

"It made me feel unsafe going about my place of work, it made me frustrated that instead of engaging in a normal debate, someone was trying to intimidate me, I thought that was unacceptable," he told the court.

"I had a pretty good impression he was taken over by these ridiculous conspiracy theories."

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Former British Health Secretary Matt Hancock leaves after testifying at the COVID-19 Inquiry, in London, Britain, June 27, 2023 REUTERS/Peter Nicholls
Image: Matt Hancock said he felt 'physically intimidated'

During the second incident, the defendant is alleged to have followed Mr Hancock through Westminster underground station around 8am on 24 January, before boarding the same train.

The politician, who had just had breakfast with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, told the court he recognised the defendant and felt "more intimidated" because he was alone.

He asked Transport for London (TfL) staff to intervene - but claimed Tarjanyi began harassing "anyone who came to my aid".

Read more:
By-election to be held after COVID rule-breaker MP Margaret Ferrier loses seat
COVID-19 inquiry: Brexit preparation 'helped' COVID response, Michael Gove argues

Mr Hancock said he stopped at the top of an escalator to "resolve the situation" - but that he was "being pushed from behind".

"Obviously I was extremely worried at this time," he told the court.

"If I had lost my balance at this point, I would have tumbled down the escalator.

"I had to work to maintain my balance and stop myself falling down the escalator."

Mr Hancock resigned as health secretary in June 2021, admitting to breaching his own social-distancing guidelines when leaked CCTV showed him kissing his married lover, aide Gina Coladangelo, in his office.

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June: 'I'm profoundly sorry for each COVID death'

He later found himself embroiled in further scandal when he jetted to the Australian jungle for a controversial appearance on I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! - which led to the whip being suspended.

Mr Hancock later confirmed in December that he would not stand at the next general election.

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2023-08-02 14:48:45Z
2307780617

UK weather: Warnings issued over strong winds and thunderstorms - BBC

Goodwood FestivalPA Media

Severe weather warnings have been issued over strong winds and thunderstorms forecast in the UK.

Gusts could reach over 60mph in the most exposed parts of the southern England coast, the Met Office said.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected in central and south-east England and Wales, with some locations facing 40mm of rain within a few hours.

The bad weather is being caused by an unseasonal deep area of low pressure for this time of year.

The yellow severe weather warning for wind on Wednesday, covering coastal southern England, is in force between 04:00 BST and 18:00.

The Met Office is warning of travel disruption, trees being damaged and seafront and coastal communities being affected by spray and large waves.

It forecast gusts reaching 50mph (80km/h) in some English Channel coastal areas, 55 to 60mph (86 to 97km/h) in the most exposed locations in the far south-west, and possibly higher speeds in exposed parts of coastal southern England.

In central and south-east England and Wales, there is a yellow severe weather warning for thunderstorms from 09:00 to 20:00, with the possibility of some flooding.

Some damage to buildings from lightning strikes, short-term loss of power, and train delays are expected, as well as standing water on roads.

Meanwhile, in parts of north-east England, a yellow severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rain and is in place from 11:00 and 20:00.

The wet weather has been bad news for holidaymakers enjoying the school holidays.

Lisa Vickery, owner of MacDonald's Farm in Porthcothan, told BBC Radio Cornwall "quite a few" campers had left due to heavy rain, or cancelled at the last minute.

"I think everyone wakes up praying that today's going to be a dry day, but we've never seen weather like this in the four years we've been here," she said.

"Whether that will mean next year they might rethink coming down here for their summer holiday and go abroad, we could see next year this has an impact."

Jo Rogers said her family were trying to make the best of their holiday at the campsite.

She said: "I think it's more a case of survival now, trying to make it nice for the kids, finding good things to do, running into the tent when it rains again."

Meanwhile on the Isle of Wight, Cowes Week - the world's largest sailing regatta - cancelled all races on Wednesday due to the high winds forecast.

In Redcar, North Yorkshire, horse racing has been abandoned due to the weather. Hastings Pier has been closed due to winds.

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BBC Weather meteorologist and presenter Sarah Keith-Lucas explained the unseasonably wet and windy weather the UK was experiencing was due to a storm system the French Meteorological Department had named Patricia, which is crossing the UK.

She said: "Heavy thundery downpours are likely for Wales, the Midlands and southern England. These showers may bring large hail, and torrential rain, leading to a chance of localised flooding.

"The winds will be strong in the south, with gusts up to 60mph possible in the Bristol Channel and English Channel. Travel disruption and power cuts are possible due to the stormy weather, as well as large waves along the south coast."

Elsewhere, she said heavy rain would move eastwards across Northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland throughout Wednesday.

And what about Thursday? Met Office chief meteorologist Dan Suri said the low pressure will pull away eastwards from the UK during Wednesday evening and night, making for a calmer Thursday - although heavy showers could persist.

People sheltering from rain whilst punting
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People walking in the rain
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Slow traffic in heavy rain on the M62 near Brighouse in West Yorkshire
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The RAC has warned motorists to slow down during challenging driving conditions.

Rod Dennis, a spokesperson for the RAC, said: "Drivers attempting to drive through patches of standing water risk losing control, so the best course of action is to slow down and carefully avoid them whenever possible.

"As the wind will be especially strong along southern coasts, drivers towing caravans will need to be cautious, while those carrying items on the roof should make sure these are properly secured."

Birmingham Airport, airline Jet 2 and train companies Avanti West coast, South Western Railway and Great Western Railway said their services were unaffected by the weather.

Wightlink, which runs ferries across The Solent between Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, said their service was running normally.

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2023-08-02 12:24:23Z
2303153109

Nicholas Rossi: Rape suspect accused of faking his own death can be extradited to the US, court rules - Sky News

A Scottish court has ruled a suspected rapist who apparently faked his own death can be sent back to the United States to face serious sex charges.

Nicholas Rossi, who claims he is an Irish orphan named Arthur Knight, has been at the centre of a long-running extradition battle in Edinburgh.

American law enforcement officials claim he is a fugitive who fled to the UK to evade justice.

An international game of hide and seek ended when Rossi, 35, was tracked down via an Interpol red notice while unconscious in a COVID hospital ward in Glasgow in 2021.

He was arrested after his tattoos and fingerprints matched National Crime Agency documents.

Last November, a Scottish court ruled he was the suspect American authorities have been attempting to track down.

Rossi has deliberately delayed extradition proceedings by claiming it is a case of mistaken identity. His legal fees, running into the tens of thousands, are being paid for by the taxpayer.

Rossi's series of lurid suggestions that tattoos were planted on his body while in a coma for coronavirus were previously branded "scandalous" by a Scottish sheriff.

He also claimed UK and US officials were colluding to stitch him up.

In court, it was suggested Rossi "voluntarily" attended court by videolink ", but in an outburst, he claimed he had been brought before the camera by "physical force", calling the sheriff "a disgrace to justice".

Nicholas Rossi departs Edinburgh Sheriff and Justice of the Peace Court after an extradition hearing. Rossi has been fighting extradition to the US over rape allegations. Picture date: Wednesday July 12, 2023.

Sheriff Norman McFadyen told Edinburgh Sheriff Court: "I conclude that extradition would be compatible with the Convention rights within the meaning of the Human Rights Act 1998.

"It follows that I must send the case of the requested person Nicholas Rossi to the Scottish ministers for their decision whether he is to be extradited."

It is now expected Scotland's justice secretary will rubber-stamp the move.

Sheriff McFadyen added: "I conclude that he is as dishonest and deceitful as he is evasive and manipulative. These unfortunate facets of his character have undoubtedly complicated and extended what is ultimately a straightforward case."

He had 'no medical need' for a wheelchair - but used one anyway

In what has become an international spectacle, Edinburgh Sheriff Court has played host to a string of hearings spanning more than 18 months.

Rossi was transported to and from jail in an accessible prison vehicle due to, what he describes as, the inability to stand or walk amid health complications.

The court heard from HMP Edinburgh's GP who ruled she could find "no medical need" for Rossi to have a wheelchair. She, in fact, found his legs to be "athletic".

During extradition proceedings, Rossi spoke in a hoarse, weak, slow-paced English accent.

A Dublin accent could be heard when he referred to his apparent childhood in Ireland.

A medical expert said during her private consultations with Rossi, his speech sped up and improved the longer he spoke.

Read more:
Rossi's arrest in Scotland
Suspect calls convicted child sex offender as witness
Rossi attempts to dismiss his lawyer

The defendant leaving Edinburgh Sheriff And Justice Of The Peace Court, for a hearing on the extradition of Nicholas Rossi to the US, where he is wanted after allegedly fleeing the country in 2017 to evade charges involving identity theft and fraud, and a 2008 sexual assault charge in Utah. The man, who goes by at least ten other aliases, including Nicholas Alahverdian and Arthur Knight, denies he is Rossi. Picture date: Tuesday July 12, 2022.
Image: Rossi in July last year

A raft of witnesses branded the suspected rapist manipulative, narcissistic and aggressive.

A psychiatrist said Rossi was "keen to attract a psychiatric diagnosis" and demanded to be sectioned despite her believing he had no mental illness.

The prosecutor put to Rossi that no one can trust a word he says.

The alleged fugitive could then appeal the court's decision in a process that could take years, according to an extradition expert.

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2023-08-02 11:15:00Z
2284655896

BBC Weather issues ‘important announcement’ saying it has ‘finally found summer’ and revealing exact date - Wales Online

After weeks of rain and little to no sign of summer forecasters have finally offered some hope by suggesting when the warm dry weather could return. After the sixth-wettest July on record for the UK it looks like we may finally see some sun again – and there's not too long to wait.

In a short teaser video on X, formerly known as Twitter), BBC weather shared a clip showing high pressure over the UK on Thursday, August 10. They captioned the clip: "We have an important announcement for those fed up with being rained on. After 6 weeks of being AWOL, we have finally found summer."

The damp July has come straight after what was the hottest June on record so while it has been wet for the last few weeks temperatures have remained fairly warm creating a heavy, humid feel. However hopefully clearer skies will soon return to make it feel as though we have at least some sort of summer.

Read more:When it's going to stop raining according to the Met Office

According to the BBC weather for Wales the country won't see a fully clear day until Wednesday, August 9. Until then there will be showers every day with heavy rain also expected on some of those days. Temperature-wise Wales looks set to remain around 17°C but dropping as low as 10°C overnight.

The Met Office paints a similar picture but suggests that some parts of the country could see the sun slightly earlier with Cardiff forecast to have a dry and sunny Sunday this weekend (August 6). It will then be cloudier for the rest of the week but currently appears to be dry for most of Wales.

Explaining why July had been so unseasonably wet compared to the month before it Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin said the sudden shift was down to a change in the jet stream. Explaining exactly how the jet stream affected our weather he said: "[It's] all to do with the jet stream. [The change between June and July is] basically to do with a shift in the jet stream for most of June.

"Broadly speaking the jet stream was fast-moving – a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere – and it takes low-pressure systems along with it generally to the north. So Iceland was getting hit by a lot of low-pressure systems in June. We are on the warm side of the jet and that's why high pressure was dominating across the UK hence why it was a very sunny month and generally an incredible month as well – the warmest June on record. Since then, almost exactly on the last day of June, well, probably the 27th or 28th, but the last few days of June were showery as well, but the jet has shifted south and it's more barrelling in across the UK."

The long-range Met Office forecast for the UK

Sunday, August 6, to Tuesday, August 15

"A mix of sunshine and showers initially, these most frequent and heaviest in the northwest, with the brightest conditions likely in the south, feeling more pleasant here. Changeable, often unsettled conditions, at least to start the following week, with showers and longer spells of rain likely, but some drier and brighter interludes, with these looking increasingly likely by the end of the week.

"Winds generally light to moderate, with a continued risk of strong winds at times with temperatures remaining below average. Beyond this, while changeable conditions are never too far away indications are that more settled conditions become the more likely scenario, but interspersed still with some more unsettled weather. Temperatures continue to be mostly below average although should start to recover through the period."

Wednesday, August 16, to Wednesday, August 30

"During the second half of August, there is a greater chance of more settled spells developing, with warmer and drier conditions becoming slightly more likely than the unseasonably unsettled weather of July. However, unsettled conditions are never too far away and so there will likely still be some spells of rain or showers for many areas from time to time. Temperatures look like they will recover to at least average, or a little above, however any prolonged dry or hot spells appear to be unlikely."

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2023-08-02 07:05:30Z
2291022021