On a balmy summer evening this week, the teetotal Rishi Sunak drank sparkling water as several members of his Cabinet sipped prosecco in the walled grounds of Westminster Abbey, one of the oldest gardens in England.
The Policy Exchange drinks, the right-leaning think-tank’s annual summer get together, is a mainstay of the Westminster calendar, and a time for Conservative ministers surrounded by friendly faces, to relax and unwind, to a point, at least. But not on this occasion.
It is customary for the prime minister of the day to make a speech, one which is usually lighthearted and littered with jokes. But aside from a laboured gag about former bosses, Mr Sunak stuck doggedly to the issue that is concerning him most – inflation.
“Morally, it would not be right to take the easy course,” he told the audience. “What we are doing is targeted but necessary. Tackling inflation relentlessly must be our immediate priority.”
It could easily have been a speech delivered during his weekly Cabinet meeting, a reminder that the number one goal of this government is tackling the rocketing cost of living and regaining control of the economy. Above all, it shows how much the issue is preoccupying him and his Downing Street operation.
A source close to Sunak said: “He was the one talking about risk of inflation over two years ago and he talked about it a lot while chancellor. It is the single biggest thing we can do to help people with the cost of living.”
The Prime Minister was given a stark reminder of the unexpected destabilising problems that sky-high inflation can trigger this week when speculation reached fever pitch that Thames Water was on the brink of going under.
While the firm’s collapse was less imminent than first feared, it was further evidence of the wider difficulties that stubbornly high inflation, and the resulting hikes in interest rates can bring.
The water sector is heavily leveraged, with companies sitting on a collective £60.5bn of debt, leaving them heavily exposed to higher borrowing costs.
Sir Robert Goodwill, Tory chair of the Commons Environment Committee, told i: “These water companies are very highly geared and it is not clear whether their borrowing is on fixed-term rates or from connected parties. But however it is being lent, it should be shareholders not taxpayers bailing them out.”
Whitehall officials have said that a temporary nationalisation of Thames Water remains on the table, but the threat of major utility firms requiring a taxpayer bailout and potentially blowing apart government finances has set alarm bells ringing across government.
The far-reaching effects of higher inflation are also being blamed by government insiders for the axeing and delays to key policies, such as the ban on buy-one-get-one-free deals, which has been pushed back to avoid exacerbating the impact of the rising cost of living crisis for families.
Ministers are also expected to announce a delay to the Government’s flagship recycling reforms following warnings from industry that the plans will drive up costs for consumers, with Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch understood to be particularly concerned.
But these are just the beginning of Mr Sunak’s problems. On Tuesday it will be six months since the Prime Minister set out his five central pledges to the electorate: to halve inflation this year, to grow the economy, to cut national debt, to reduce NHS waiting lists and to pass new laws to stop migrants arriving in small boats.
Each of the five promises look far less likely to be delivered by the end of the year than they did at the start.
The launch of the NHS workforce plan is unlikely to come soon enough to make a dent in record waiting lists, while the Government’s plans to “stop the boats” were delivered another major setback this week by the Court of Appeal ruling the government’s plan to fly migrants to Rwanda unlawful.
Treasury sources told i that driving down inflation is the number one priority as it affects all other parts of the economy, but the focus on the economy, the NHS and migration has led to criticism from his own side, not least the former environment minister Lord Goldsmith.
In his resignation letter on Thursday the Tory peer, a key Boris Johnson ally, delivering a damning assessment of Mr Sunak’s “apathy” towards tackling climate change, adding that he seemed “uninterested” in the issue.
The timing of the resignation, just hours before the Prime Minister’s big press conference on some of the biggest workforce reforms to the NHS in its history, was seen by some in Whitehall as an attempt to further undermine the Tory leader. But his departure was not mourned by many in the Conservative ranks.
“Good riddance,” one former minister told i. “The tone of Goldsmith’s resignation is just throwing his toys out of his pram. He is no gentleman,” the MP added.
The decision by Lord Goldsmith to attack Mr Sunak with a parting shot has increased calls for the Prime Minister to carry out a substantial reshuffle of his ministerial team.
“It’s time Rishi reshuffled and put the A-Team in place,” another Tory said. “His appointments have been tactical and transactional. It’s time to get a grip.”
Talk of a reshuffle has been growing in recent days, as MPs grow increasingly worried about their prospects at the election.
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Speculation has begun to mount that Environment Secretary Thérèse Coffey, who was notable by her absence when Thames Water was teetering this week, could be “in the firing line” and is looking “vulnerable”.
Ms Badenoch is also a name that has been mentioned, with sources claiming that relations between the Business Secretary and the Prime Minister were at “rock bottom”. Insiders also said No 10 “would like” to remove Home Secretary Suella Braverman but they “don’t have the confidence it won’t backfire”.
The cranking up of the rumour mill is a symptom of growing jitters among Tory MPs, who are experiencing the full blowback from the electorate over Government’s failure to get a grip of the cost of living crisis as they hit the doorsteps ahead of a glut of by-elections.
One Tory frontbencher said there was little affection for the party in Selby. “I knocked on one door and said I was from the Conservative Party and they just slammed the door shut. At least I normally get told to f**k off first,” the MP said.
The party believes that Selby and Ainsty could be salvageable, Mr Johnson’s former seat, Uxbridge and West Ruislip is “anyone’s guess but Mid-Bedfordshire [Nadine Dorries’s seat] has gone”.
But despite the gloom, No 10 insists that support for Labour remains shallow, regardless of the party’s 20 point poll lead, and everything is still to play for.
“There is no love for Labour, they are relying on the Tories f**king things up,” a senior government source said. “And a lot can still happen in 16 months.”
Lord Zac Goldsmith has hit back at Rishi Sunak's claim he refused to apologise for criticising a Commons investigation into Boris Johnson.
The Tory peer earlier resigned as a minister with a scathing attack on Mr Sunak's "apathy" over climate change.
Mr Sunak said Lord Goldsmith had quit after being asked to apologise for comments he made about the Privileges Committee inquiry.
But Lord Goldsmith has told the BBC the prime minister was "wrong".
"I am happy to apologise for publicly sharing my views on the Privileges Committee," said Lord Goldsmith.
"I firmly believe our parliamentary democracy can only be strengthened by robust scrutiny, and parliamentarians should of course be free to be critical of its reports and proceedings.
"But as a minister I shouldn't have commented publicly. No 10 asked me to acknowledge that, and made clear that there was no question of my being 'sacked' if I did so. I was - and am - happy to do so. "My decision to step down has been a long time coming."
'Utterly betrayed'
In a scathing resignation letter, which did not mention the Privileges Committee report, Lord Goldsmith said he had been "horrified" at the government abandoning its environmental commitments and withdrawing its leadership on the world stage.
Lord Goldsmith told BBC climate editor Justin Rowlatt the pledge would not be met because of "low levels of expenditure so far", combined with a decision to classify spending on Afghan and Ukrainian refugees in the UK as overseas aid.
Small island nations would be left "feeling utterly betrayed," whilst "our reputation as a reliable partner will simply be shredded," he added.
However, in a letter to Lord Goldsmith, Mr Sunak said: "You were asked to apologise for your comments about the Privileges Committee as we felt they were incompatible with your position as a Minister of the Crown. You have decided to take a different course."
He said Lord Goldsmith had been "a vocal advocate of some of the most important issues that the UK and the world face today".
Mr Sunak added: "The UK continues to play an important role globally in tackling climate change and preserving the environment."
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he did not agree with Lord Goldsmith's comments about Mr Sunak's attitude towards the environment.
He told BBC Radio 4's World at One: "I know the prime minister is as proud as I am that the UK has reduced our emissions by more than any other advanced economy. We have led the way when it comes to climate issues internationally."
But, he added, the government needed to get the economy "back on track" to be able to "continue to invest at the rate we want to in the transition to net zero".
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats had called for Lord Goldsmith to resign after the Privilege Committee report's publication on Thursday.
However, Mr Sunak's official spokesman had said the prime minister continued to have full confidence in him.
Lib Dem spokeswoman Sarah Olney, who won her Richmond Park seat from Lord Goldsmith in 2019, said Mr Sunak "should have had the guts" to sack him.
Ms Olney claimed his resignation confirmed the government "doesn't give a damn about the environment and animal rights".
Labour's shadow environment secretary Jim McMahon said: "Rishi Sunak's weakness is laid bare as 24 hours after he refused to condemn Zac Goldsmith, Goldsmith scathingly condemns him."
Former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, another close ally of Mr Johnson who was named in the Privileges Committee report, said Lord Goldsmith's "passion" for the environment was "second to none" and that the government had been "lucky" to have him.
The committee's report said "unprecedented and co-ordinated pressure" was placed on its members, who were investigating whether former Prime Minister Mr Johnson had misled Parliament over lockdown parties at Downing Street.
A tweet by Lord Goldsmith, in which he expressed support for the view that the inquiry was a "witch hunt" and a "kangaroo court", was cited in the report's evidence.
However, other Tories named in the report accused the committee of trying to shut down freedom of speech.
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Mr Johnson announced he was resigning as an MP days before the committee published its initial findings, branding the investigation a "kangaroo court".
The year-long inquiry found Mr Johnson made multiple deliberately misleading statements to Parliament about lockdown parties at Downing Street.
It ruled he should have been suspended for 90 days had he remained in the Commons.
The sanction, which was lengthy by recent standards, would have been likely to trigger a by-election in Mr Johnson's constituency.
Lord Goldsmith, a close ally of Mr Johnson, previously served as a junior environment minister in his government.
He was made a peer by Mr Johnson after losing his seat as Conservative MP for Richmond Park to the Liberal Democrats in the 2019 general election.
He was first elected as an MP in 2010, and in 2016 ran unsuccessfully to be the mayor of London.
Rishi Sunak has announced a plan to increase the number of people working for the NHS in England, which he says will put the service on a secure footing for the long-term. But despite the prime minister's pledge there are still many questions.
Will it work?
That answer is yes for recruitment, though with a caveat.
The plan is funded for the first five years but for 10 years after that there is an assumption that future governments will find the money to keep up with the required growth in training places.
It is hard to believe a new administration would dilute NHS workforce growth and the training of thousands more doctors and nurses.
But, never say never when it comes to public finances.
Expanding the number of clinical staff to the extent which is envisaged in the plan will eventually have a positive impact for patients - but retention will be a bigger ask.
The plan's policies to improve morale and hang on to staff look a little vague. Recruitment will not achieve much if there is a continued exodus at the same rate as now.
Is it the right approach?
Recruit and retain have long been held up as the required twin-track approach for the NHS.
Health think tanks and charities were queueing up to welcome the plan as it had adopted the policies called for by most experts.
Then again the enthusiasm must in part have been relief that at long last there was an NHS workforce plan after nothing comparable in the previous two decades.
Modelling of future patient demand seems reasonable and health think tanks were invited to kick the tyres of the numbers.
Productivity assumptions were included. Some of the medical Royal Colleges have noted the plan is ambitious and they want to see more detail.
The idea of medical apprenticeships is radical with staff in other NHS jobs training to be doctors.
But, the precise workings of this scheme will need time to work out.
Why is pay not part of the plan?
Pay is certainly the elephant in the room.
Most large organisations drawing up a workforce plan would have a section on appropriate remuneration to attract and motivate the best staff.
That is one thing NHS England can't do with its strategy.
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NHS pay is the preserve of the government and it is ministers who decide. Most of the NHS pay disputes have been settled but the doctors' campaign is far from over with further strikes planned.
Health unions have long argued that the best way to hold on to staff is to raise wages at a time of acute cost of living pressures.
Senior management have had to stand on the side-lines of the argument and cope with the consequences of walkouts.
Is it going to make a difference?
In the short-term - no, when it comes to raising the number of doctors, nurses and other health staff.
It takes several years to train clinical professionals and the expansion of new places at medical schools and universities won't begin until the autumn of 2024.
Implementation may be slowed if there are not enough experienced doctors and nurses to set aside time to run the training.
Retention initiatives aimed at reducing the number of NHS staff quitting might make a bit of a difference over the next year or so.
But, patients currently frustrated at not getting a GP appointment or are on a long waiting list for an operation probably won't notice.
Is now not the time for a broader strategy?
Planning the training of tens of thousands of health staff right through till beyond 2030 is admirable.
There has been nothing comparable in recent years with only sporadic time-limited initiatives.
But, what will the rest of the NHS look line by then? Will the service have kept up with the increasing burden of sickness linked to an ageing population?
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Will the public be willing to keep funding the NHS through taxation? Might payment for some services have been introduced? How much difference will technology and AI make?
There is no long-term plan for investment in buildings and IT - in other words the hospitals and clinics where the new staff will work and the computers they will use.
Perhaps the publication of a multi-year workforce plan will spur politicians to come up with broader strategies for health funding and reform over a decade or more.
Currently, half of new doctors and nurses have to be recruited from abroad as the UK supply route has struggled to keep up with demand.
One out of every 10 posts remains unfilled - more than 110,000 vacancies.
And without action, this could rise to 360,000 by 2037, modelling for the plan suggests.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard will officially unveil the plan on Friday.
To help achieve the goals, the government has promised £2.4bn over the next five years.
Ms Pritchard called it a "historic" moment for the NHS.
"It gives us a once-in-a-generation opportunity to put staffing on a sustainable footing for years to come," she added.
Mr Sunak called it "one of the most significant commitments" he would make as prime minister.
The targets for 2031 include:
doubling medical school places for student doctors, to 15,000 a year
a 50% increase in GP trainee places for junior doctors
24,000 more nurse and midwife student places a year - close to double the number now
In the next five years, the proportion of NHS staff, including physios, podiatrists and maternity staff, trained through apprenticeships - combining paid work with study and no tuition fees - will double, to one out of every six.
And next year, an apprenticeship for doctors will launch, with a few hundred places.
NHS England medical director Stephen Powis told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that making the plan a reality is "doable", but would be "challenging" for the entire health system.
Pressed on whether he had confidence it would be backed financially by the government, he said it contained a "clear ambition over 15 years, laying out exactly what the NHS will need" beyond the initial £2.4bn.
Speaking to the same programme, health secretary Steve Barclay said senior NHS leaders had told him the plan "gives hope to the system" in the long-term.
He said patients will not see some of the benefits for several years, but added that reforms and measures to improve staff retention "will come through quite quickly".
Gemma Petters is one of thousands of people to have already started a nursing apprenticeship - in 2016, aged 30, at Royal Derby Hospital.
"I left school not knowing what do do," she says. "I had lots of different jobs."
Ms Petters has now qualified as a nursing associate - a role that bridges the gap between healthcare assistant and nurse.
Her next step will be to start two years of training to become a nurse.
Learning on the job has been really beneficial, Ms Petters says.
"We are learning the ethos of the NHS and getting to know how our patients want to be looked after," she says.
And earning while she learns is important too.
"I've got children and a house to run," Ms Petters says. "The security is really important and has enabled me to pursue a career in the NHS."
Being welcomed
There will also be a major drive on retention - including more flexible-working options and career development to provide clear routes to senior jobs. Last year, more than 40,000 nurses left the NHS.
The plan is being welcomed by many in the health service.
Matthew Taylor, of the NHS Confederation, which represents health trusts, called it "bold and ambitious".
The same commitment was now needed for the social care workforce, he added.
Others have pointed out the drive to increase training places could be undermined by the lack of placements on the front line - half of a nurse student's degree is spent working in the NHS.
It will also take years before this expansion starts to have an impact on current shortages - it takes five years to complete a medical degree and three a nurse degree.
Is it enough?
There are challenges making sure the expansion of training places are successful. The first one is making sure there are enough people interested in pursuing a career in health care.
That is less of a problem for doctors - medical degrees are heavily over-subscribed.
But the number of applications for nursing degrees is falling - with universities saying the cost of living crisis is putting people off.
However, perhaps the biggest challenge of all is ensuring existing staff are retained - nurses are leaving the NHS almost as quickly as new ones are joining.
There has been very little detail so far about how this will be addressed - and of course pay is not part of this plan and that is a key factor in keeping staff.
Pay awards going forward will be determined by two things - the size of the NHS budget and what is happening with inflation.
It is why the £2.4bn committed to boost training in this plan over the next five years is being welcomed, but on its own will not determine its success.
'Dismal reality'
Dr Billy Palmer, of the Nuffield Trust think tank, said while it was good to see the plan published, there had been "years of drift".
And he warned the "dismal reality" of working in the NHS at the moment could undermine the push to tackle shortages in the long term.
"There is a risk that we will feed more and more people into training only to burn them out ever faster," Dr Palmer said.
Speaking to the BBC, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said "congratulations to the government for listening to Labour", claiming that ministers had "nicked" the opposition's plan.
He continued: "There is a reason why the NHS is understaffed, and it's the lack of a workforce plan for the last 13 years."
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