Mini-budget: Chancellor denies gambling with economy as pound sinks to near historic lows - Sky News

The chancellor has denied suggestions he is gambling with the economy as his raft of tax cuts were met with a hostile reception - and sent the pound plummeting to a 37-year low.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) said he was "betting the house" by putting government debt on an "unsustainable rising path".

Only those with incomes of over £155,000 will be net beneficiaries of tax policies announced by the Conservatives, with the "vast majority of income taxpayers paying more tax", said the respected financial think tank in a scathing assessment of the plans.

Mini-budget - latest updates

During a visit to a factory in Kent on Friday afternoon, Kwasi Kwarteng told reporters: "It's not a gamble.

"What is a gamble is thinking that you can keep raising taxes and getting prosperity, which was clearly not working.

"We cannot have a tax system where you are getting a 70-year high, so the last time we had tax rates at this level before my tax cuts was actually before Her late Majesty had acceded to the throne.

"That was completely unsustainable and that's why I'm delighted to have been able to reduce taxes across the piece this morning."

The Resolution Foundation think tank said the chancellor's measures would involve an extra £411bn of borrowing over the next five years.

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It said the tax cuts do very little to boost the incomes of those who need it the most, pointing out that someone earning £1m a year would gain more than £55,220 a year, while someone on £20,000 would gain only £157.

Pound plunged to a four-decade low

The growth plan outlined by the chancellor to lift the UK from the depths of the cost of living crisis and back to prosperity has been met with horror on financial markets, with the pound taking a particular hammering late in the day.

Sterling, bonds, and share values all fell sharply in the wake of Mr Kwarteng's mini-budget.

The pound - already on its knees this month because of a strong dollar - slid below $1.09 for the first time in 37 years.

That was after US bank Citi declared on Friday afternoon that the currency was facing the prospect of a confidence crisis. It speculated that it could eventually hit parity with the dollar for the first time in history, but added that it expected sterling to settle within the $1.05-$1.10 range.

The all-time low of $1.0545 was witnessed on 25 February 1985.

Biggest tax cuts in 50 years

The chancellor revealed the biggest tax cuts for 50 years as part of the new economic agenda - a package that will be paid for through a huge leap in government borrowing.

He cut stamp duty for homebuyers, and brought forward a cut to the basic rate of income tax, to 19p in the pound, a year early, to April, as part of tax cuts costing up to £45bn annually.

The plans, which include the previously announced energy bill aid for households and businesses, raised the Treasury's debt issuance plans for the current financial year alone by £72.4bn to £234.1bn.

Taken together, It went much further than markets had been expecting.

The package was announced a day after the Bank of England warned the UK may already be in a recession and lifted interest rates to 2.25%.

Read more:
The key mini-budget announcements
Top 1% are immediate winners in mini-budget
How much stamp duty will home buyers now pay?

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The FTSE 100 shed 2% of its value by the close, with miners and energy stocks among the worst performers.

Commenting on the package, Caroline Le Jeune, head of tax at accountants Blick Rothenberg, said: "In 25 years of analysing budgets this must be the most dramatic, risky, and unfounded mini-budget.

"Truss and her new government are taking a huge gamble."

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2022-09-24 03:28:15Z
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UK ticket-holder wins £171m EuroMillions jackpot - check your numbers here - Sky News

A UK ticket-holder has won more than £171m with the EuroMillions jackpot - the third biggest National Lottery win of all time, Camelot has said.

Tonight's National Lottery EuroMillions winning numbers were: 14, 15, 22, 35, 48.

The Lucky Stars were: 03, 08.

One UK millionaire has been created with a winning code of: HJML89118.

Only 16 people in the UK have won more than £100m, putting the latest winners in an elite group.

Camelot's Andy Carter, senior winners' adviser at The National Lottery, said: "What an amazing night for one UK ticket-holder who has scooped the giant £171 million EuroMillions jackpot.

"This winner has just become the third biggest National Lottery winner of all time and the sixth UK EuroMillions jackpot winner this year alone.

More on Lottery

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"Players are urged to check their tickets and to give us a call if they think they are tonight's lucky winner."

But they won't surpass two previous record holders - winners Joe and Jess Thwaite, a couple from Gloucester, who revealed their identities after winning £184m on the EuroMillions back in May.

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Mr Thwaite, who bought the ticket, said: "Generally my luck is pretty terrible, to be honest with you."

Meanwhile, the UK's biggest winner of £195 million chose not to go public, after winning in July.

Read more:
Single father who won £1m jackpot turns up to work as chef on Christmas Day
How to win the lottery
A knees up? Not for this Lotto winner - she needs new knees

What can you buy with £171 million?

The winner is now richer than Adele (who is worth £150m) - and £171 million will go an unsurprisingly long way.

They could buy 585 houses, based on the latest UK average. Or if luxury property is more their thing, they can now buy three Mayfair townhouses - complete with gym and library - and still have change to spare.

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2022-09-23 21:22:30Z
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UK stamp duty cut unlikely to help first-time homebuyers, say experts - Financial Times

A stamp duty cut announced by the UK government on Friday risks pushing up house prices and will do little to help first-time buyers on to the property ladder, according to housing experts.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng laid out plans to cut the property transaction tax as part of his growth-focused fiscal package on Friday. The move is designed to give a leg up to first-time buyers and support an increasingly fragile housing market.

The cut, which could save some buyers more than £10,000, would “support growth, increase confidence and help families aspiring to own their own home”, said Kwarteng.

Effective immediately, buyers in England and Northern Ireland will pay no stamp duty on the first £250,000 of a property’s value — double the previous £125,000 threshold — and first-time buyers will pay no tax on the first £425,000, up from £300,000.

First-time buyers in London and the south-east could potentially save as much as £11,250 under the new measures, according to the government. Non-first-time buyers purchasing a house for £312,000 — the average price of a home in England according to the Land Registry — would save around £2,500, according to official estimates.

But these savings could be dwarfed by higher borrowing costs if the Bank of England seeks to offset the inflationary impact of the government’s tax cuts by raising interest rates. 

Andrew Wishart, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the market reaction to Kwarteng’s statement suggested mortgage rates of more than 6 per cent were now a “distinct possibility”, a development that would leave house prices “more overvalued than in 2007” and could lead to a “significant correction”. 

Ian Mulheirn, chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, cited a 2019 BoE working paper finding that a rise of 1 per cent in gilt yields could lower house prices by 20 per cent in real terms in the long term. The stamp duty cut was “small beer in the face of those forces”, he said. 

However, previous stamp duty cuts have driven up property values because sellers add the theoretical saving on to house prices. The government’s stamp duty holiday in 2020 is regarded by property analysts as one of the reasons behind rapid house price growth in the two years since.

“There has been a lot of tinkering with stamp duty over the past decade and the one thing which is crystal clear is that buyers pay for cuts and sellers pay for rises through market adjustments,” said Roarie Scarisbrick, an estate agent at Property Vision.

The opposition Labour party criticised the cut. “These stamp duty changes have been tried before. Last time the government did it, a third of people who benefited were buying a second home, a third home, or a buy to let property. Is that really the best use of taxpayers’ money?” asked shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Property experts said the measures would do little to insulate buyers from the effects of rising interest rates or meaningfully boost first-time buyer numbers.

The cut “helps first time buyers in London and the south-east. But [the saving] is still fairly small given the big deposits they need. It might help some buy a bit quicker but it won’t help those with no bank of mum and dad,” said Neal Hudson, a housing market analyst and founder of the consultancy BuiltPlace.

But he added that the cut may entice investors to target properties valued up to £250,000.

Richard Donnell, research director at property portal Zoopla, said the changes “won’t do anything [to address] the problems facing the [property market] in south-east England from mortgage rates moving towards 5 per cent from 2 per cent in January”.

He added that the measures were likely to have a neutral effect on the exchequer’s stamp duty tax receipts because 90 per cent come from properties valued at £250,000 or more, and prices are still rising.

The Treasury received a record £17.5bn from stamp duty in the 12 months to August this year.

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2022-09-23 12:58:22Z
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Kwasi Kwarteng: A politician who challenges established thinking - BBC

Reuters

Self-doubt is a concept that has rarely troubled Kwasi Kwarteng.

"Don't worry, I'm sure you'll do very well," the teenage Etonian joked to an apologetic admissions tutor, who had turned up late for his interview at Trinity College, Cambridge.

With supreme confidence in his intellectual abilities, Mr Kwarteng went on to dazzle audiences across the worlds of academia and politics with his mastery of multiple subjects.

"He wears it extremely heavily," says his old Cambridge university friend Dr Catherine Brown.

"But in a way that is extremely charming," she adds.

• Kwasi Kwarteng: A chancellor who won University Challenge
• Huge tax cuts for millions set to be unveiled
• UK may already be in recession - Bank of England

One theme stands out in Mr Kwarteng's career as an academic and now at the height of politics - this is a man who always challenges established thinking.

"I think he is certainly someone who is not going to be afraid of a big idea - he is not risk averse," says the journalist Sarah Sands who has known the chancellor since he was at Cambridge.

In Friday's statement to Parliament on his growth plan, the chancellor will slay orthodox Treasury thinking. He will cut taxes with no corresponding spending cuts - all to be funded by increased borrowing.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies says reversing the rise in National Insurance contributions and cutting corporation tax amounts to the biggest tax cut in one event since 1988.

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This is a chancellor moving at speed after a relatively slow start to his political career.

Mr Kwarteng was first elected to Parliament in 2010 and saw other contemporaries shoot ahead of him up the ministerial ladder.

But one event and two people turned round his political fortunes. He was a genuine supporter of Brexit, believing with his historical overview that it was always going to happen.

"We were always going to leave," he told friends after the referendum as he moved into the new political mainstream.

"It just happened a little earlier than expected."

Mr Kwarteng was a supporter of Boris Johnson who put him on the ministerial fast-track as energy minister in 2019.

Then his political partnership with Liz Truss, a fellow member of the 2010 intake of MPs, paid dividends when she asked her close ally to serve as chancellor.

George Freeman, another member of the 2010 intake, believes that this mini-budget marks a historically significant step.

Mr Freeman, who worked under Mr Kwarteng as a business minister, told BBC Newsnight: "I think it is bold, confident stuff.

"And I think both the prime minister and Kwasi understand that leading in these roles is about confidence, the markets' confidence, public confidence in the economy.

"But it is also quite high risk and I don't think they would demur from that. I think they've understood that slow growth, post-pandemic risk of recession requires bold action."

Independent or ideologue

As an historian, it is little surprise that history instilled in Mr Kwarteng the belief of taking risks.

A key influence in his thinking about how to act as chancellor was an essay written by the economist John Maynard Keynes on Andrew Bonar Law, chancellor during World War One and later prime minister.

Mr Keynes wrote that Mr Bonar Law was highly accomplished in using his skills as a chess player to prevent political opponents from from going no more than a few moves ahead.

Mr Kwarteng saw that as a missed opportunity. Surely better, he thought, to show some flare and deploy the most idiosyncratic piece on the board - the knight.

"Kwasi is a flare of exciting, original thinking," Mr Freeman says.

"I think he's probably the most exciting appointment of this reshuffle."

But the veteran former Labour minister, Dame Margaret Hodge, believes the chancellor is embarking on a gamble too far.

Dame Margaret told Newsnight: "I think he's an ideologue who lives in a bubble, who really doesn't understand most ordinary people's lives, who has this sort of theoretical brilliance, but a total lack of pragmatism, which I think creates this chaotic set of policies.

"I can't think how anybody can believe that it is sensible at this time to reintroduce bankers bonuses when everybody else is struggling.

"I mean it's not bold, it's immoral."

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Dame Margaret's remarks show Labour believes that the Kwarteng/Truss approach has gifted them a strong line of attack: Tories prioritising tax cuts that will benefit the better off.

Mr Kwarteng is unlikely to be troubled by Labour criticism.

One of his oldest friends from Cambridge, who is on the Labour left, says Mr Kwarteng never concedes an inch in political debates and mocks her views. But it always done with charm and a laugh.

"There is a political gulf of a Homeric scale between us and yet our friendship bridges it," says Dr Catherine Brown, now an English literature academic.

And his response to her political views? "Yeah, he made fun of them."

Reforming chancellor

But Mr Kwarteng once found himself in a minority round Dr Brown's dinner table, prompting a revealing insight into the historian's view of Brexit.

"I think he was the only Brexiteer round this table, which was a table of academics, and he was asked to say something about his position and in defence of his position.

"He actually likened it to the English Reformation. He said that at the time Henry VIII brought that about, Henry didn't know exactly what a Protestant England or Britain was going to look like, nor did his immediate descendants.

"And it took about a century of bloodshed. These are his words. But in the end, it all worked out and Britain sailed on into its glorious future, which I thought was an interesting analogy."

As Mr Kwarteng embarks on an economic experiment he will need results on a rather faster timetable.

And he will need those to show that his decision to override Treasury orthodoxy, by cutting taxes now, has delivered strong economic growth.

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2022-09-23 00:54:09Z
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UK mini-Budget latest: Kwasi Kwarteng expected to cut property stamp duty - Financial Times

The UK pound has extended its decline to slip below $1.12, the currency’s weakest point since 1985, as the economy veers towards a recession and the government prepares a mini-Budget in which it promises a number of tax cuts.

Friday’s 0.75 per cent decline brings the drop for the the year to more than 17 per cent, putting the currency on track for its worst year since 2008 when it lost more than a quarter of its value against the dollar.

Sterling’s drop on Friday overshot the euro’s 0.6 per cent decline against the dollar in early trading.

Much of the move is due to the strength of the dollar, which is at its highest against a basket of peers since mid-2002, propelled by concerns over the global economy and aggressive interest rate rises from the US Federal Reserve.

On Friday the dollar index rose 0.5 per cent to push its monthly gains to 3 per cent. The index has advanced 17 per cent over the year.

The UK economy has weakened over the past few weeks with the Bank of England now believing it has shrunk over two consecutive quarters, which technically would be a recession.

The central bank this week lifted interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.25 per cent, the highest since 2008, meaning borrowing will become more expensive for businesses and households. It expects inflation to peak at 11 per cent in October from its current 9.9 per cent, a near 40-year high, further eroding households’ real incomes.

UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will on Friday attempt to deliver shock treatment to Britain’s stagnating economy, with a 30-point growth package to turn “the vicious cycle of stagnation into a virtuous cycle of growth”.

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2022-09-23 08:00:47Z
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Kwasi Kwarteng to unveil his plan to kick-start UK economic growth - Financial Times

UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will on Friday attempt to deliver shock treatment to Britain’s stagnating economy, with a 30-point growth package to turn “the vicious cycle of stagnation into a virtuous cycle of growth”.

Kwarteng’s mini-Budget will feature tax reforms to help struggling self-employed business owners, alongside scrapping a planned increase in corporation tax that will help profitable larger companies.

The chancellor will sharply increase borrowing to pay for a package of tax cuts and an emergency plan to hold down household and company energy bills, while announcing a series of contentious regulatory reforms.

A cap on bankers’ bonuses is expected to be axed and environmental legislation will be overhauled. “We will be bold and unashamed in pursuing growth — even when that means taking difficult decisions,” Kwarteng will say.

He will also outline regulatory reforms in the City of London intended to unlock billions of pounds of investment by pension funds in infrastructure, part of prime minister Liz Truss’s drive to make the UK capital the world’s leading financial centre.

Labour believes Kwarteng is sowing the seeds for the Conservative party’s defeat by announcing tax cuts that disproportionately help the rich and profitable big businesses, while allowing bankers’ bonuses to rise.

Meanwhile the think-tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the investment bank Citi have warned that Kwarteng is due to put the public finances on an “unsustainable path”.

The chancellor will insist he will maintain “responsible public finances”. However the government’s fiscal rule, which states that debt should be on course to fall as a share of gross domestic product within three years, is set to be suspended.

The chancellor’s “growth plan”, to be outlined to MPs on Friday, runs to about 30 pages and contains Treasury costings, but there will be no new forecasts from the UK fiscal watchdog.

Kwarteng’s plan to cut national insurance and scrap the planned corporation tax rise will cost £30bn a year. He is also planning to cut stamp duty on house purchases.

Labour believes the chancellor may go even further and cut the basic rate of income tax from 20p in the pound to 19p.

The chancellor will only set out the costs over six months of his intervention to hold down household and business energy bills, although much of the scheme will run for longer. The total cost has been estimated at £150bn.

The mini-Budget is expected to draw criticism from several quarters. The green lobby is likely to react angrily to Kwarteng’s plan to reduce the burden of environmental assessments and to rewrite habitats and species regulations to speed up the delivery of 100 major infrastructure projects.

But some 38 local council and mayoral areas are in discussions with the Treasury about setting up new investment zones in their areas, which would benefit from more liberal planning rules and time-limited tax cuts.

The government is also pursuing changes to how self-employed business owners are taxed, to free small companies from unnecessary costs.

Truss is committed to reviewing the tax levied on one-person businesses, freelancers and contractors under so-called IR35 rules, which have been attacked for adding the sorts of costs that permanent employees face without the associated benefits.

IR35 rules have been overhauled in recent years, shifting responsibility from contractors to employers over whether they should be considered to be employees for tax purposes.

Employers fearing large tax bills have as a result chosen not to use contractors, which has had a chilling effect on the freelance economy.

Small businesses have already claimed victory after Kwarteng on Thursday confirmed plans to reverse a rise in national insurance introduced by his predecessor Rishi Sunak from November 6. Business lobby groups had said the rise was unfairly penalising employers across the UK.

The move will reduce tax for 920,000 businesses by nearly £10,000 on average next year. Craig Beaumont, chief of external affairs at the Federation of Small Businesses, said this was a “good moment” for businesses in the UK.

“This marks the end of the ‘fuck business’ era of the previous administration — and finally removes the threat of having the highest small-business tax burden since Clement Attlee hanging over us,” he added.

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2022-09-22 21:31:11Z
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Khayri Mclean: Huddersfield stabbing victim named as boy arrested - BBC

West Yorkshire Police

A 15-year-old boy who was stabbed to death outside his Huddersfield school has been formally named by police.

Khayri Mclean was attacked in a "targeted incident" on Wednesday afternoon, close to North Huddersfield Trust School, West Yorkshire Police said.

A 16-year-old, arrested in the town on suspicion of murder on Thursday morning, remains in custody.

A family friend told the BBC how she held the boy's hand as he lay dying.

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Sherrin James, 35, said her daughter was in a relationship with Khayri, but she had known his mother for a number of years.

Ms James had driven from her home to the scene after her daughter told her of the attack.

She added: "I got on the floor with him and was holding his hand. I was just trying to make him pull through."

Officers were called to the scene, on Woodhouse Hill, in the Fartown area, at about 14:55 BST.

The teenager was taken to Leeds General Infirmary where he died a short time later.

Ms James described Khayri as "a lovely boy" who made her daughter happy.

She added: "She thought he was the perfect boy. He was her first proper boyfriend."

Ch Supt James Griffiths, district commander of Kirklees Police, said his officers understood the "concern" of communities.

"I want to reassure residents everything possible is being done to investigate what took place," he said in a statement on Thursday evening.

In a statement to parents, Andrew Fell, head teacher at North Huddersfield Trust School, said: "Our deepest sympathies go out to the pupil's family and friends who must feel, as we do, completely devastated.

"They have lost a loved one and we have lost a wonderful student from our school community."

Afiya Mahmood, who lives nearby, witnessed the aftermath of the stabbing, which she described as "really distressing".

She said: "Everybody's really shocked. He's just a child, isn't he?

"I'm so shocked that the perpetrators did this in daylight at three o'clock with loads of people about. They had no care for people or children around. It's disgusting."

Ms Mahmood said her children, who attend another school, had to walk past the scene.

"They're under eight and we had to actually lie to them and say it was a car accident," she added.

Kirklees councillor Amanda Pinnock, who represents the Ashbrow ward, met with representatives from the school, police and council colleagues on Thursday.

She said: "As a councillor, community member and a mother, I am heartbroken by what has taken place. It is so sad to hear that a schoolboy has lost his life in such tragic circumstances."

Ms Pinnock said the community needed "to put our heads together" to find a solution to knife crime.

She said: "It's time for action. The community is saying more needs to be done. There seems to be a culture of people carrying knives, and it's not just young people."

Speaking on Wednesday night, Det Supt Marc Bowes said: "We will be carrying out extensive inquiries to establish the full circumstances surrounding this incident that has resulted in the absolutely senseless loss of a young life.

"We have already identified a number of witnesses to the incident itself but would still like to hear from anyone who has any information that could assist the investigation."

Follow BBC Yorkshire on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Send your story ideas to yorkslincs.news@bbc.co.uk.

Related Internet Links

• Home page - West Yorkshire Police

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2022-09-22 17:54:10Z
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