Jumat, 24 Desember 2021

Covid: Glimmer of Christmas hope on Omicron, says Jenny Harries - BBC News

Medical staff
PA Media

Official findings that Omicron may be less likely to result in serious illness than Delta offer a "glimmer of Christmas hope", the head of the UK Health Security Agency has said.

But Jenny Harries told the BBC it was too early to retract her statement that the variant was the most serious threat the UK had faced during the pandemic.

The UKHSA's findings are "preliminary", she said, and data around Omicron's impact on the elderly is still needed.

Meanwhile, UK cases continue to surge.

A record 119,789 new Covid infections were reported on Thursday, while the Office for National Statistics estimates 1.74 million people in the UK had coronavirus on 19 December, up by more than 368,000 on the figure three days earlier.

This equates to 2.7% of the population or one in 35 people. In London, that figure is one in 20.

Responding to UKHSA analysis that those cases with Omicron - now the UK's dominant strain - are less likely to need hospital care, Dr Harries told Radio 4's Today programme: "There is a glimmer of Christmas hope... but it definitely isn't yet at the point where we could downgrade that serious threat.

"What we have got now is a really fine balance between something that looks like a lower risk of hospitalisation - which is great news - but equally a highly transmissible variant and one that we know evades some of our immune defences, so it is a very balanced position."

The UKHSA estimates that someone with Omicron is between 31% and 45% less likely to attend A&E and 50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital than an individual with the Delta variant.

However, Dr Harries warned there was much that is still unknown about Omicron.

"We don't yet know what the average length of stay for an individual is in a hospital," she said.

"We're not seeing very significant rises in intensive care utilisation or in the use of ventilation beds. Now that may be because a lot of the people who've been infected to date are actually younger people and we will see that coming through."

But if the severity of the disease is actually "significantly lower than Delta" then some of the impact on the NHS may be less severe, she added.

Office for National Statistics chief Sir Ian Diamond said there were "indications" the Omicron variant was encouraging people to adopt "safer" behaviour but it was "far too early to suggest that we will see anything other than a continued rise" in cases.

He told BBC Radio 4's World At One programme all areas of the UK, except for south-west England, were seeing increases - although in Scotland infections had "gone up just a little bit".

2px presentational grey line

Omicron: What we know so far

  • This variant is very contagious - it spreads faster than others and can infect people even if they are fully vaccinated
  • Vaccines and boosters are still essential - they do a great job at protecting against severe disease that could put you in hospital
  • It is milder - if you catch it, the risk of needing hospital treatment is up to 70% lower than with previous variants - but that is largely because many of us have built up immunity from vaccines and past infections rather than changes to the virus
  • Even if Omicron is milder, because it is more contagious a large number of people will catch it and some will still become very ill, which puts pressure on the NHS
2px presentational grey line
Covid cases chart

The UKHSA analysis, along with the data gathered around Omicron on a daily basis, will influence the UK government's decision regarding whether or not further restrictions are needed in England.

At present, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stuck to his Plan B measures - face masks, Covid passes and working from home guidance - and says no new measures will be announced before Christmas.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have all announced further measures to come in from Sunday.

Asked whether ministers had enough data to make a call on new measures, Dr Harries said the government would consider more than just hospital admissions and cases.

"For example, we have very high rates of individuals off sick," she said. "That's having an impact on the workforce. So these are not simply about hospitalisation rates."

She added that ministers were being kept updated on a daily basis and that would continue throughout the Christmas period.

"I don't think we do know yet that this is going to be a significantly less serious disease for the population - the older population - that we are normally most concerned about in relation to serious disease and death."

People in hospital with Covid

Dr Harries' comments come amid the ongoing push for UK government to offer every adult a booster vaccine dose by the end of the month.

People in England will be able to get a jab on Christmas Day and Boxing Day as part of efforts to target the Omicron variant, the NHS has said.

Vaccinations will also take place on Christmas Eve, with about 200,000 first, second or booster appointments still bookable over the festive period.

It has been a record-breaking week for booster and third jabs in the UK, with more than 968,665 administered on Wednesday, the highest number to date.

Prof Clare Bryant - a professor of immunology at the University of Cambridge - told the Today programme that additional booster shots in the form of a fourth dose would be needed at some point, but exactly when was not yet clear.

"We are looking at fourth shots," she said.

"I suspect it's a question of when those will need to be introduced because of course a waning in immunity means that you may catch the virus a little bit more easily - but don't forget you're still very well protected against severe disease and that's absolutely critical."

In Austria, the government's National Vaccination Board has already recommended that fourth jabs be given to people working in "high-risk areas", such as healthcare, six months after the third dose.

Graphic showing UK booster rollout statistics

Officials will also be working to fix supply chain delays with home tests over the festive period.

The UKHSA said it was sending a record number of rapid lateral flow tests to people's homes every day but acknowledged there was an issue with deliveries to some pharmacies.

Ministers have also been encouraging people to use the tests before they socialise or go to work, with the prime minister on Tuesday saying tests should be taken before they visit elderly or vulnerable relatives at Christmas.

The UKHSA said pharmacies were continuing to receive lateral flow tests and any delays in deliveries were a "supply chain issue and not a stock issue".

Graphic showing UK Covid statistics
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2021-12-24 14:31:35Z
1191888452

Covid: Glimmer of Christmas hope on Omicron, says Jenny Harries - BBC News

Medical staff
PA Media

Official findings that Omicron may be less likely to result in serious illness than Delta offer a "glimmer of Christmas hope", the head of the UK Health Security Agency has said.

But Jenny Harries told the BBC it was too early to retract her statement that the variant was the most serious threat the UK had faced during the pandemic.

The UKHSA's findings are "preliminary", she said, and data around Omicron's impact on the elderly is still needed.

Meanwhile, UK cases continue to surge.

A record 119,789 new Covid infections were reported on Thursday.

Responding to UKHSA analysis that those cases with Omicron - now the UK's dominant strain - are less likely to need hospital care, Dr Harries told Radio 4's Today programme: "There is a glimmer of Christmas hope... but it definitely isn't yet at the point where we could downgrade that serious threat.

"What we have got now is a really fine balance between something that looks like a lower risk of hospitalisation - which is great news - but equally a highly transmissible variant and one that we know evades some of our immune defences, so it is a very balanced position."

The UKHSA estimates that someone with Omicron is between 31% and 45% less likely to attend A&E and 50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital than an individual with the Delta variant.

However, Dr Harries warned there was much that is still unknown about Omicron.

"We don't yet know what the average length of stay for an individual is in a hospital," she said.

"We're not seeing very significant rises in intensive care utilisation or in the use of ventilation beds. Now that may be because a lot of the people who've been infected to date are actually younger people and we will see that coming through."

But if the severity of the disease is actually "significantly lower than Delta" then some of the impact on the NHS may be less severe, she added.

2px presentational grey line

Omicron: What we know so far

  • This variant is very contagious - it spreads faster than others and can infect people even if they are fully vaccinated
  • Vaccines and boosters are still essential - they do a great job at protecting against severe disease that could put you in hospital
  • It is milder - if you catch it, the risk of needing hospital treatment is up to 70% lower than with previous variants - but that is largely because many of us have built up immunity from vaccines and past infections rather than changes to the virus
  • Even if Omicron is milder, because it is more contagious a large number of people will catch it and some will still become very ill, which puts pressure on the NHS
2px presentational grey line
Covid cases chart

The UKHSA analysis, along with the data gathered around Omicron on a daily basis, will influence the UK government's decision regarding whether or not further restrictions are needed in England.

At present, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stuck to his Plan B measures - face masks, Covid passes and working from home guidance - and says no new measures will be announced before Christmas.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have all announced further measures to come in from Sunday.

Asked whether ministers had enough data to make a call on new measures, Dr Harries said the government would consider more than just hospital admissions and cases.

"For example, we have very high rates of individuals off sick - we know that particularly in London, around one in 35 have currently got Omicron," she said.

"Now that's having an impact on the workforce. So these are not simply about hospitalisation rates."

She added that ministers are being kept updated on a daily basis and that will continue throughout the Christmas period.

"I don't think we do know yet that this is going to be a significantly less serious disease for the population - the older population - that we are normally most concerned about in relation to serious disease and death."

People in hospital with Covid

Dr Harries' comments come amid the ongoing push for UK government to offer every adult a booster vaccine dose by the end of the month.

People in England will be able to get a jab on Christmas Day and Boxing Day as part of efforts to target the Omicron variant, the NHS has said.

Vaccinations will also take place on Christmas Eve, with about 200,000 first, second or booster appointments still bookable over the festive period.

It has been a record-breaking week for booster and third jabs in the UK, with more than 968,665 administered on Wednesday, the highest number to date.

Prof Clare Bryant - a professor of immunology at the University of Cambridge - told the Today programme that additional booster shots in the form of a fourth dose would be needed at some point, but exactly when was not yet clear.

"We are looking at fourth shots," she said.

"I suspect it's a question of when those will need to be introduced because of course a waning in immunity means that you may catch the virus a little bit more easily - but don't forget you're still very well protected against severe disease and that's absolutely critical."

Graphic showing UK booster rollout statistics

Officials will also be working to fix supply chain delays with home tests over the festive period.

The UKHSA said it was sending a record number of rapid lateral flow tests to people's homes every day but acknowledged there was an issue with deliveries to some pharmacies.

Ministers have also been encouraging people to use the tests before they socialise or go to work, with the prime minister on Tuesday saying tests should be taken before they visit elderly or vulnerable relatives at Christmas.

The UKHSA said pharmacies were continuing to receive lateral flow tests and any delays in deliveries were a "supply chain issue and not a stock issue".

Graphic showing UK Covid statistics
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2021-12-24 09:55:34Z
1191888452

Kamis, 23 Desember 2021

Omicron: Rising numbers of NHS staff off work because of Covid - BBC News

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The number of NHS staff off-work because of Covid is rising across England, official data shows.

Nearly 19,000 NHS staff were absent for Covid-related reasons on 19 December - up 54% on the previous week.

A further 119,789 Covid infections were recorded in the UK on Thursday, setting another new record for daily cases.

Health leaders say the NHS is under significant pressure, despite early studies suggesting the Omicron variant may cause a milder illness than Delta.

Ministers say they are monitoring Covid data but no further restrictions are needed in England at present.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the NHS workforce was "already under pressure before Omicron came along", adding: "There is increased pressure in many workforces at the moment, especially if someone needs to isolate if they have a positive case.

"Some of the recent moves we have had, moving from 10-day to seven isolation if you take a test in the last two days, I think all of that will help."

The 19,000 absentees include staff at NHS acute trusts who were ill with Covid-19 or who were having to self-isolate. In London, the number of staff absences due to Covid was almost 3,900 - more than double the number a week earlier.

Along with non-Covid reasons, this suggests about 5% of the NHS workforce in England was absent on 19 December.

Data for Scotland suggests 3,285 NHS staff were off for reasons related to Covid in the week to 21 December - up by almost 1,000 on the previous week - while the head of NHS Wales warned almost a fifth of its staff may be off work at the peak of the Omicron wave.

'A huge test'

NHS Providers' chief executive Chris Hopson said the figures showed Omicron was having a "real-time impact on service".

He added: "The next few weeks will present a huge test for the NHS on many fronts - coping with Covid-19, handling emergencies, working on the backlog where possible, and delivering boosters."

The latest figures show the number of beds occupied in NHS hospitals remains high - with 81,880 out of 89,991 adult beds full in England on 19 December.

However, ambulance handover delays have improved slightly - with about 20% of people waiting for more than 30 minutes to be handed over to accident and emergency in the week up to 19 December, down from 23% the week before.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence says it is making 750 personnel from the Army, Royal Navy and RAF available to support the acceleration of the Covid booster programme in England and Scotland. The roles include administering vaccines and planning support.

The latest NHS figures come amid a debate about whether further restrictions are needed to stem the surge of the Omicron variant around the UK.

More than 100,000 daily Covid cases were recorded for the first time on Wednesday, while the Office for National Statistics estimates 1.3 million people in the UK would have tested positive for Covid on 16 December.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have all announced further measures to kick in from 26 December - but no further curbs have been announced in England.

Asked when people in England would get clarity on potential rule changes, Mr Javid said: "We do have clarity, the government has taken action already - the so-called Plan B.

"We're clear that there's no need for any kind of further restrictions of any type before Christmas but of course we will keep the situation under review."

Pressed again on potential rule changes after Christmas, Mr Javid added: "We're not planning any further announcements this week."

He did, however, urge people to exercise caution over the festive period.

"If you are meeting people who are more vulnerable... I think a really sensible thing to do is to take a lateral flow test and make sure you're negative," he said.

A modern browser with JavaScript and a stable internet connection are required to view this interactive.

Early data from South Africa and studies in England and Scotland published on Wednesday suggest Omicron infections may be milder and lead to fewer hospital admissions.

Analysis by researchers at Imperial College London found around a 40% reduction in the risk of being admitted to hospital for a night or more compared with Delta, while an Edinburgh University study suggested there was a 65% lower risk of being hospitalised with Omicron - but it was based on only a few cases.

In South Africa, a study suggested Omicron patients were 70-80% less likely to need hospital treatment. However, it suggested there was no difference in outcomes for the few patients that ended up in hospital with Omicron.

Imperial College epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson said the research was "clearly good news to a degree" but warned the reduction was "not sufficient to dramatically change the modelling" and the speed at which Omicron was spreading could still mean hospitalisations "in numbers that could put the NHS in a difficult position".

The UK Health Security Agency is expected to publish early real-world data on Omicron later, which could give further indications of the variant's severity.

Meanwhile, Prof Francois Balloux, an expert in infectious disease and director of University College London's Genetics Institute, has said London is likely to be past the peak of Covid infections.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's World At One programme, he said: "We are seeing the peak of the wave of the Omicron variant at least in London and probably also in other parts of the UK - or peaking soon.

"There's a bit of a lag between infections and cases - it takes a little while for people to test positive - so infections have probably peaked."

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2021-12-23 16:25:46Z
1207070451

Nicola Sturgeon hints at changes to self-isolation 'soon' after being accused of 'cautious' approach - Daily Record

Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out making an immediate change to self-isolation guidance which has seen thousands of households required to stay indoors for 10 days.

The First Minister said she hoped "in the very near future we will feel much more confident about opening things up" when more was known about the impact of Omicron.

It comes after a study published last night by Scottish scientists found the risk of hospitalisation for those who catch Omicron is two-thirds lower than with the Delta variant.

Hospitality businesses, theatres and football clubs all face a raft of new restrictions from December 27 onwards as SNP ministers try to limit public interaction and reduce the spread of the latest coronavirus variant.

But Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross accused Sturgeon of being "too cautious" when it comes to self-isolation rules for households.

Nicola Sturgeon said early data on Omicron was 'really positive'
Nicola Sturgeon said early data on Omicron was 'really positive'

Changes to the self-isolation rules for businesses are being considered in a bid to ease pressure on public services and an update on specific sectors is expected later today.

Fully-vaccinated people who have coronavirus currently have to self-isolate for 10 days.

But that has been cut to just a week for people in England who get negative lateral flow results on day six and day seven.

The Tories want household contacts to be able to end self-isolation with a negative test - and the 10-day self-isolation period reduced to seven if someone tests negative twice.

Speaking at First Minister's Questions today, Ross said: "The changes we are calling for are necessary to protect essential services and our economy.

"The First Minister wants to be cautious - but this seems to be too cautious. Why do people who have tested negative for covid have to remain in isolation for 10 days?

"This level of caution belonged before we had the data from this new study announced last night.

"Doesn't the First Minister recognise that although we need to tackle covid, we also need our services to function fully and our economy to keep running?"

The First Minister responded: "I accept all of that - but can I stress and underline that if we act rashly right now, what we risk is a really counterproductive effect that makes what we're all living through longer rather than shorter.

"That's the weight of responsibility that rest on the shoulders of those of us having to take the decsions.

"These studies are really positive - but they are also early data, as the authors of them are pointing out.

"And when even the authors are saying 'don't get carried away' I think we should listen."

Scottish politics

Sturgeon added: "I am following the advice given to me by clinicians and by experts and applying my judgement to that, and coming, I think, to a balanced decision that says - yes, we hope that in the very near future we will feel much more confident about opening things up in all sorts of ways because we know much more about omicron.

"We're not quite at that stage despite these positive reports."

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2021-12-23 13:10:21Z
CAIiEDG-fYgy0pr29YfHFyll_IsqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowrueiCTDmn7gCMIbTtwU

Omicron Covid variant 'a storm not a hurricane' and less likely to be as serious as Delta - The Times

The risk posed by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has been downgraded from “a hurricane to very severe storm”, a scientific adviser said after two studies suggested that it was less likely to cause severe disease than the Delta variant.

Andrew Hayward, an epidemiologist and member of the government’s Nervtag advisory group, said today that although the findings were encouraging, “we’re definitely not out of the danger zone”.

Results from two studies published yesterday offer early support for Boris Johnson’s decision to pause further restrictions. The risk of requiring an overnight stay in hospital was reduced by at least 40 per cent for people with Omicron compared with Delta.

Johnson, who has been briefed on the latest data, has decided to hold off announcing further

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2021-12-23 14:15:00Z
1191888452

Date circuit breaker lockdown could be announced by Boris Johnson over Christmas - Cambridgeshire Live

The Prime Minister confirmed no restrictions will be put in place before Christmas Day and no further announcements are expected until at least next week.

This comes as hopeful data is released surrounding the mutant strain of the dominant Omicron Covid-19 variant.

In two separate studies on Wednesday, December 22, the Omicron variant has been found to be milder than Delta and has a lower risk of hospitalisation reported Birmingham Live.

Read more: Coronavirus news

One of the studies was from Professor Neil Ferguson himself, who is widely nicknamed 'Professor Lockdown'.

Rather than announce New Year restrictions this week, it appears Mr Johnson will now unveil them at any time from December 27 onwards.

A circuit breaker has been mooted, with a return to step two of the lockdown roadmap.

This would mean households are banned from meeting indoors, with a strict rule of six outdoors, of up to two households.

There would be no indoor service for the hospitality sector, causing chaos for restaurants, pubs, and cafes and bars.

Indoor entertainment venues could also be forced to shut up in January as a result of the measures.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, unveiled a £1 bn bailout with £6k grants for businesses affected by any impending restrictions at the beginning of next year earlier this week.

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2021-12-23 09:39:34Z
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