Sabtu, 13 November 2021

China and India weaken pledge to phase out coal as COP26 ends - Financial Times

A last-minute intervention from India and China weakened the move to end coal power and fossil fuel subsidies in the Glasgow Climate Pact in the closing stages of the UN COP26 summit.

Countries agreed to “phase down” rather than “phase out” coal, in wording that was watered down several times in the course of the week.

In the hour before the closing plenary session there was frantic last minute wrangling among ministers. The final change, proposed by India and China jointly, was the only amendment made to the deal text.

COP26 President Alok Sharma offered his apologies for the last minute wording changes on the critical sections, saying he was “deeply sorry” for how the event had concluded.

He became emotional as he closed debate: “May I just say to all delegates I apologise for the way this process has unfolded. I also understand the deep disappointment but I think, as you have noted, it’s also vital that we protect this package.” 

The summit managed to reach agreement on other significant contentious issues on its agenda, including how countries report their emissions, and rules for global carbon markets.

The Glasgow accord commits the 197 parties to the Paris agreement to “accelerating efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”

While it was the first time fossil fuels had been included in COP agreements, and it was not expected to survive, there remained disappointment in the process that allowed the pushback by India and China. This was supported by South Africa, Bolivia and Iran.

“How can anyone expect that developing countries make promises about phasing out coal and fossil fuels subsidies,” said India’s environment minister Bhupender Yadav, in an earlier speech. “Developing countries still have to deal with their poverty reduction agenda,”

It drew a sharp response from Switzerland, which expressed its “profound disappointment as a result of intransparent process”.

“We do not need to phase down coal but to phase out coal,” its representative said. “This will not bring us closer to 1.5C [limit to global temperature rise] but make it more difficult to reach it.”

UN secretary-general António Guterres said the agreement “reflects the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today . . . Unfortunately, the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions.”

Talks had been scheduled to end on Friday. But tensions related to unresolved issues, including around carbon markets and the fossil fuel language, had pushed negotiations into the weekend.

“It’s meek, it’s weak and the 1.5C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters,” said Greenpeace International’s executive director, Jennifer Morgan.

The agreement also commits countries to strengthen their 2030 emissions reduction targets by the end of 2022, and asks rich countries to “at least double” by 2025 the sums they give to developing counties to help them adapt to climate change, from 2019 levels.

In a major breakthrough, years in the making, negotiators concluded the Paris “rule book” — a series of technical decisions that govern subjects including how countries report progress towards their emissions reduction targets, and how a new international carbon market will work.

“While we are not yet on track, the progress made over the past year and at the COP26 summit offers a strong foundation to build upon,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute. “The real test now is whether countries accelerate their efforts and translate their commitments into action.”

The two-week summit also put the spotlight on the fraught issue of financing for poor nations suffering from loss and damage linked to climate change.

Just days before the Glasgow pact was agreed, the G77 group of developing nations proposed a new loss and damage fund that rich countries would pay into. But the US, EU and others strongly opposed the idea, and the final text instead committed to resourcing a new body that would deliver technical support.

Teresa Anderson, climate policy co-ordinator at ActionAid International, said the outcome was “an insult to the millions of people whose lives are being torn apart by the climate crisis.”

The ministerial speeches on the final day, including from small island nations that are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, made clear their disappointment about the lack of progress made on loss and damage payments in particular.

Frans Timmerman, the EU’s green chief, also expressed disappointment about the last minute pushback by fossil-fuel reliant countries but said the success of the overall pact would mean the end of coal. The world could “work bloody hard at getting rid of coal” as a result of the agreement.

Although Saudi Arabia also pushed back against the wording on fossil fuels this week, the country’s negotiators were conspicuously silent on Saturday, while Iran made the case for retaining hydrocarbons.

 

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiP2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmZ0LmNvbS9jb250ZW50LzQ3MWM3ZGI5LTkyNWYtNDc5ZS1hZDU3LTA5MTYyMzEwYTIxYdIBAA?oc=5

2021-11-13 21:03:51Z
1158220420

Christmas restrictions 'unlikely' says Covid expert who believes we won't see 'catastrophic winter wave' - Daily Record

An expert on Covid who helped instigate the first coronavirus lockdown has stated that he doesn't believe we will need additional restrictions for the UK this Christmas.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), believes it is "unlikely" the UK will see a "catastrophic winter wave" similar to that seen last year.

With other countries around Europe looking at reinstating restrictions, the epidemiologist said he "very much" hopes we will avoid similar lockdowns due to having higher levels of Covid immunity and a strong booster vaccination programme.

The academic has also voiced his support for the booster jags being rolled out to younger age groups, once the most vulnerable have been given top-up vaccinations, in order to slow transmission.

Top news stories today

He said modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has indicated that expanding eligibility for the booster shots could help "drive down transmission to low levels".

Rising levels of Covid around Europe has led to countries like The Netherlands and Austria imposing lockdowns and German politicians considering legislation that would pave the way for new measures at the same time as the country's disease control centre is urging people to cancel or avoid large events.

Prof Ferguson said the UK is in "quite a different situation" to its European counterparts due to having a greater level of immunity among its population following months of high virus prevalence.

He said the fast rollout of booster jabs has also given the UK an advantage in the fight to control Covid.

Acknowledging, however, that the UK is seeing a "hint of an uptick in the last few days" following weeks of declining case numbers and hospital admissions, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We've had very high case numbers - between 30,000 and 50,000 a day - really for the last four months, since the beginning of July.

"That has obviously had some downsides.

Professor Neil Ferguson has voiced his support for booster jags being rolled out to younger age groups
Professor Neil Ferguson has voiced his support for booster jags being rolled out to younger age groups

"It has also paradoxically had an upside of boosting the immunity of the population compared with countries like Germany, the Netherlands and France, which have had much lower case numbers and are only now seeing an uptick."

Prof Ferguson said he hopes the immunity levels mean the UK can "avoid" returning to social distancing restrictions this winter.

He added: "I think it is unlikely we will get anything close to what we had last year, that catastrophic winter wave.

"We might see slow increases as we did in October, for instance, but not anything as rapid as we saw last year.

"We can't be complacent, but at the moment I don't think we'll be in a situation the Netherlands is coming into where they really do need to get on top of rising case numbers using social distancing.

"I very much hope we can avoid that in this country."

New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has suggested infection levels are continuing to fall across the UK.

The figures show about one in 60 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to November 6, down from one in 50 the previous week.

In Wales, about one in 45 people is estimated to have had the virus in the week to November 6, down from one in 40 the previous week.

In Northern Ireland, the figure is about one in 75 people, down from one in 65 the previous week, while in Scotland it is one in 85 - down from one in 80.

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiZGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmRhaWx5cmVjb3JkLmNvLnVrL25ld3Mvc2NvdHRpc2gtbmV3cy9jaHJpc3RtYXMtcmVzdHJpY3Rpb25zLXVubGlrZWx5LXNheXMtY292aWQtMjU0NTIzMDTSAQA?oc=5

2021-11-13 20:05:32Z
1169628842

COP26 latest: India and China push back on fossil fuels - Financial Times

Alok Sharma, president of COP26, has now opened the plenary session of politicians from around the world, trying to rally them towards a final agreement before nightfall.

He told delegates that the time has come to “reach a conclusion” and said he hoped that the draft text took into account the views of nearly 200 countries.

“You all know the nature of these negotiations,” he said. “As presidency we have effectively had to take into account and balanced the views of nearly 200 parties.”

For the agreement to go through it needs the signatures of all the countries involved in the COP process, a point noted by Sharma.

“I hope however you share my view that taken together these latest iterations represent the comprehensive, ambitious and balanced set of outcomes that you collectively called for,” he said.

“They will . . . elevate the importance of averting, minimising loss and damage including through strengthened institutional arrangements.”

He attempted to adjourn for further talks but not before several parties put their hands up to speak, led by Guinea, followed closely by China and Tanzania, and India, before the dam broke over its contorversial statement, and dozens of other nations decided to take the chance to speak.

Sharma said representatives could make statements this afternoon but he urged them to avoid “general statements” and only give speeches in relation to the final text.

He said everyone in the room knew that collectively their climate action had so far “fallen short on promises made in Paris” at that summit six years ago.

“These texts recognise this and set out a clear response. Many will call for that response to go even further but these decisions I believe set out . . . clear milestones to reach the goals of the Paris agreement,” he said.

“They are guided by equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities of different national circumstances.”

The issues being debated in Glasgow had “evaded us for far too long”, said Sharma.

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiP2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmZ0LmNvbS9jb250ZW50LzY1MWNlZWYzLWM1YmMtNDY0OC05ZDYxLTIyMTI2MDhjODkxMNIBAA?oc=5

2021-11-13 18:35:42Z
1158220420

Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe: Husband Richard ends three-week hunger strike as his daughter 'needs two parents' - Sky News

Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe's husband has ended his three-week hunger strike after making a promise to his imprisoned wife.

Richard Ratcliffe has been camped outside the Foreign Office in London for the past 21 days as part of his long-standing campaign for his wife's release from Iranian prison.

But on Saturday he tweeted: "Day 21 #FreeNazanin Today I have promised Nazanin to end the hunger strike Gabriella needs two parents Thank you all for your overwhelming care these past three weeks."

He thanked members of the public for their support and "keeping our family in the light", before adding: "I will be going to the hospital for a full check up."

During the strike, Mr Ratcliffe, who lives with the couple's daughter in north London, has been visited by a number of celebrities including Strictly Come Dancing host Claudia Winkleman and TV presenter Victoria Coren Mitchell.

Their MP, Labour's Tulip Siddiq, has also been in consistent contact.

On Saturday she said she had been "in touch with Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who is worried sick about her husband".

More on Nazanin Zaghari-ratcliffe

"I reassured her that Richard is getting the medical help he needs and told her about the thousands of well-wishers who have visited him over over 21 days," she tweeted.

Her constituent, a British-Iranian dual national, has been in custody in Iran since 2016 after being accused of being a spy.

She was taking her daughter to visit family when she was arrested at Tehran Airport and sentenced to five years in jail, spending four in Evin Prison and one under house arrest.

Victoria Coren Mitchell and Claudia Winkleman arrive to meet Richard Ratcliffe, the husband of Iranian detainee Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, outside the Foreign Office in London, during his continued hunger strike following his wife losing her latest appeal in Iran. Picture date: Monday November 8, 2021.
Image: Victoria Coren Mitchell and Claudia Winkleman arrive to meet Richard Ratcliffe outside the Foreign Office

According to her family, she was told by local authorities that she was being detained because of the UK's failure to pay an outstanding £400m debt to Iran.

Over the past three weeks Mr Ratcliffe had a meeting with foreign office minister James Cleverley after government officials hosted Iranian deputy foreign minister Bagheri Kani.

Mr Ratcliffe told Sky News the meeting had been "depressing" and left him without hope.

Richard Ratcliffe, husband of British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, stands next to his daughter Gabrielle during a second hunger strike, outside the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in London, Britain October 25, 2021. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
Image: The couple's daughter Gabriella is pictured with her father during the strike

"If someone is acting in bad faith and they're taking someone for leverage the question is: 'Are you moving forward on those issues and what are you doing to discourage them from keeping on playing games?'," he said.

"Well we heard nothing on one and we heard nothing on the other. So we stand here with empty stomachs and empty hearts."

But he later said his wife would have been "less deflated" by the underwhelming meeting than he was.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe
Image: The family are pictured together before Nazanin's imprisonment

His mother Barbara had urged the government to do more to free her daughter-in-law.

"How far are they going to let my son get ill and when we've got so much support?", she said.

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMijQFodHRwczovL25ld3Muc2t5LmNvbS9zdG9yeS9uYXphbmluLXphZ2hhcmktcmF0Y2xpZmZlLWh1c2JhbmQtcmljaGFyZC1lbmRzLXRocmVlLXdlZWstaHVuZ2VyLXN0cmlrZS1hcy1oaXMtZGF1Z2h0ZXItbmVlZHMtdHdvLXBhcmVudHMtMTI0Njc3MDDSAZEBaHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLnNreS5jb20vc3RvcnkvYW1wL25hemFuaW4temFnaGFyaS1yYXRjbGlmZmUtaHVzYmFuZC1yaWNoYXJkLWVuZHMtdGhyZWUtd2Vlay1odW5nZXItc3RyaWtlLWFzLWhpcy1kYXVnaHRlci1uZWVkcy10d28tcGFyZW50cy0xMjQ2NzcwMA?oc=5

2021-11-13 13:43:57Z
1146136745

Jumat, 12 November 2021

COP26: Climate talks into overtime as nations near deal - BBC News

A boy carrying a chair walks through a submerged road in Indonesia
Getty Images

The COP26 summit has passed its scheduled finishing time, as negotiations on a deal to avert the worst impacts of climate change continue into Saturday.

Sticking points include subsidies for coal and other fossil fuels, and financial help to poorer nations.

On Friday, envoys from small island nations threatened by rising sea levels said their land was fast disappearing.

The conference president, Alok Sharma, urged an injection of "can-do spirit".

Scientists say that limiting warming to 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels will protect us from the most dangerous impacts of climate change. It is a key part of the Paris agreement that most countries signed up to.

Meeting the goal requires global emissions to be cut by 45% by 2030 and to zero overall by 2050. One example of the impact of global temperature rise above 2C is the death of virtually all coral reefs, scientists say.

A draft agreement released early on Friday included watered down commitments to end the use of coal and other fossil fuels. While that was criticised by campaigners, some observers highlighted that this would be the first time coal was explicitly mentioned in UN documents of this type.

The revised text also asked for much tighter deadlines for governments to reveal their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Speaking from London, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said rich countries must put more "cash on the table" to help the developing world move away from fossil fuels.

Also on Friday, the climate minister of Tuvalu, which is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, made an emotive plea, saying his nation was "literally sinking".

"It is a matter of life and survival for many of us, and we implore that Glasgow must be the defining moment. We must not fail," Seve Paeniu said, to a rapturous reception.

Mr Sharma said a formal plenary to adopt the final decisions of the summit would be held on Saturday afternoon.

Chart
1px transparent line

Climate finance, or the money promised by richer countries to poorer countries to fight climate change, continues to be one of the most contentious points. In 2009, developed nations pledged to provide $100bn per year to emerging economies by 2020. But this target was not met.

Despite the promises made at COP26 so far, the planet is still heading for 2.4C of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to a report by Climate Action Tracker.

This video can not be played

To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.

What has been agreed at COP26?

A series of agreements between groups of countries have been announced so far:

  • In a surprise announcement, the US and China agreed to work together this decade to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C
  • More than 100 world leaders promised to end and reverse deforestation by 2030, including Brazil, home to the Amazon rainforest
  • The US and the EU announced a global partnership to cut emissions of the greenhouse gas methane by 2030 - reducing methane in the atmosphere is seen as one of the best ways to quickly reduce global warming
  • More than 40 countries committed to move away from coal - but the world's biggest users like China and the US did not sign up
  • A new alliance that commits countries to setting a date to ending oil and gas use - and halting granting new licences for exploration - was launched
More on climate summit top strapline
More on Climate Change bottom strapline

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiN2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL3NjaWVuY2UtZW52aXJvbm1lbnQtNTkyNjk4ODbSATtodHRwczovL3d3dy5iYmMuY28udWsvbmV3cy9zY2llbmNlLWVudmlyb25tZW50LTU5MjY5ODg2LmFtcA?oc=5

2021-11-12 21:54:08Z
CBMiN2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL3NjaWVuY2UtZW52aXJvbm1lbnQtNTkyNjk4ODbSATtodHRwczovL3d3dy5iYmMuY28udWsvbmV3cy9zY2llbmNlLWVudmlyb25tZW50LTU5MjY5ODg2LmFtcA

Brexit: UK looks likely to trigger Article 16 - then what? - BBC News

Boris Johnson
Getty Images

This has not been a good week for Boris Johnson.

The Conservative Party has been battered by allegations that some of its MPs are on the take.

The way the prime minister has reacted to the situation has been publicly criticised, and privately slammed by many on his own side.

Even some of Boris Johnson's most stalwart backers in parts of the Conservative press have called foul.

But if you think this has been bumpy, it's not impossible that the government might find itself in a much more dramatic and risky situation with much further-reaching consequences for us all.

It sounds harmless enough: Article 16, an obscure set of three paragraphs agreed as part of the Brexit withdrawal deal between the UK and EU.

So first off, it's important to understand it is part and parcel of the agreement that both sides grappled to achieve, and then signed up to in October 2019.

You might remember that the Brexit arrangements left Northern Ireland, of course part of the UK, essentially in the EU's huge trading bloc for goods.

This meant that goods could go backwards and forwards over the land border on the island of Ireland without hassle.

Map of the the UK showing how goods travelling from GB into NI and onward to the Republic of Ireland.

That sorted out one aspect of the geographic reality - but it also meant that there would be checks and controls on goods going into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

From the off, that created an inbuilt difference between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Both sides were perfectly aware that these arrangements might be tricky in practice, so the deal included Article 16.

The Article gives either side the ability to cry foul and take their own "safeguard measures" if it's all going wrong - if trade is going haywire, or the deal is causing real suffering.

Either the UK or the EU has the right to take its own action, after giving a month's notice.

Boris Johnson
Downing Street

That could mean, for example, the UK stopping checks on goods that are being sent across the Irish Sea, intended only for use in Northern Ireland.

In other words, if something's made in Bolton, but sold in Belfast, it wouldn't go through customs checks.

But the actions could be more dramatic, suspending more of the deal the two sides agreed, whether that's product standards, customs checks, or VAT rules.

Working out how far to go, and what is justified, is a hard first step.

As one cabinet minister told me: "The mechanics aren't controversial, the difficult decision is how far you want to go."

Article 16 could be used to carry out a few tweaks, or to tear through the existing agreements. In turn, that would also have an impact on how the EU reacts.

Why though would the UK want to go down that road in any case, whether using it as a big bazooka or just trying to fiddle around with a few elements?

Falls Road banner, Belfast
PA Media

One diplomat told me that triggering Article 16 would be "lose, lose, lose", and could cause a "total breakdown of trust, and a deep freeze in relations" between the EU and the UK.

Former Prime Minister Sir John Major, who it's fair to say is no fan of the current occupant of Downing Street, has said it would be "absurd".

The main opposition parties would likely condemn the move.

But for months, the UK government has been saying the impact of the arrangements and how they are being implemented can't last, even though, as things stand, the part of the deal relating to Northern Ireland - known as the protocol - is certainly not being implemented in full.

But its effects have already caused lots of different concerns - whether that would be, as one source describes it, companies being "buried under mountains of new paperwork", warnings over shortages of medicines, difficulties moving pets around, or the issue that's taken up most column inches, the so-called "sausage wars" over the sale of chilled meats.

The UK believes the EU adopted an overly vigorous approach to pursuing the rules, when a lighter touch would do.

In turn of course, the EU says the UK signed up to the deal, why are they surprised when Brussels insists its followed in full?

Dominic Cummings

As ever in high-tension diplomatic spats like this, the situation is not binary, and both sides have reasons for frustration.

Of course, intense politics are at play here too.

The Unionist community in Northern Ireland largely can't stand the protocol, and have deep concerns about being able to keep a lid on tensions.

One source warns "if the government doesn't move and show a bit of teeth, things could implode".

The DUP leader has even said if there isn't movement he could pull his support.

With an election due by May 2022, they are pushing for action as soon as possible.

There's political mistrust between the UK and the EU side too over Boris Johnson's original attitude to the deal, and whether he ever intended to stick to the legal promises he made.

That was stoked by his controversial former adviser, Dominic Cummings, who said publicly the government had always intended to "ditch" the bits they didn't like.

Another source familiar with the negotiations told me "Article 16 was the route we thought we would go down from the beginning", adding: "it was always clear that unless the EU was willing to back down, we wouldn't be able to stick with it long term".

Now it is not exactly unusual for political deals to leave ambiguities, and some issues unresolved.

Given that the European Court did retain a role in supervising the protocol, that source suggests it was never likely to be "compatible with the autonomy of the UK".

But the admission that Boris Johnson's team believed there was something seriously up with the deal to start with has not exactly put the EU in the mood for compromise.

And what Brussels has been willing to budge on so far has not been nearly enough to satisfy No 10.

For political and practical reasons therefore, it seems almost inevitable that unless the European Union changes its position in a significant way, and soon, that the UK will trigger Article 16.

Lord Frost
Reuters

Talks are continuing, and while one source says, "it's not definite", they acknowledge that "optimism has been waning".

In fact, the UK has said publicly since July that the conditions for the trigger to be pulled have indeed been met.

Since then, the UK view is clearly that "the EU solution is just not good enough".

But on the other side, there's sceptism over the UK's desire even to find a way out. Lord Frost, the PM's Brexit lieutenant, is "in problem-finding, not problem- solving mode", one source said.

I'm told that diplomats were reassured by government that the action wouldn't be taken this week, after the talks between that will take place between the two sides on Friday.

But I'm told there have been discussions about starting the process, even early next week.

Don't panic, this does not seem to have yet been resolved.

Some in government are arguing for more explanation of the case to the public before drastic action is taken.

One insider described a "reasonableness test". Another said that the UK government wanted to build an "evidence base" to demonstrate why they felt the action had to be taken, before going public.

Some of the smart money is on the bust-up not coming until December, with one government source suggesting on Thursday: "We're going to see a bit more time pass before it happens."

Northern Ireland border
PA Media

Whatever the moment, unless something very unexpected happens, or the negotiators and politicians on both sides have personality transplants, it seems like Article 16 will be introduced before too long.

The likely impact of the move seems less certain than whether Boris Johnson and Lord Frost take the decision.

It hasn't happened before, so there is no real precedent.

And there are different schools of thought. First, it's important to understand that triggering Article 16 is starting a dispute process.

It's not one moment, but the start of many.

One source says some Brexiteer MPs "think you trigger it and everyone starts singing Rule Britannia - no one is asking themselves what happens after you trigger".

Theoretically, the process begins with a month of intense technical talks to try to resolve the dispute.

If that doesn't work, there would probably then be an emergency meeting of EU leaders, to take the decision up to prime ministers, not just the EU Commission.

There could be different forms of restrictions on trade, specific sanctions, or they could give notice that they would tear up the whole trade agreement, which Ireland warned might happen this week.

Without getting too technical, the trigger could end up with grumpy talks dragging on over many months with lots of politicking but not much changing practically.

Both sides could, in a genuine way, join together to try to work things out.

Or the trigger could, as one observer warned, boil over into a "full scale trade war that undermines the UK and the EU's post-Covid economic recovery".

The economic consequences of that could be profound for us all, if the argument really went that far.

And what would Number 10 do in the end, if the UK didn't get what it wanted?

If, as another source suggests, Boris Johnson "triggers the process, it finds against the UK….and ultimately the European Court says you must comply - he's snookered".

As explained here, the UK may well want to strip the European Court of Justice of its role overseeing the Protocol.

Technically, the Article 16 process itself does not come directly under the European Court. But if, as some fear is likely, the argument tips into a wider dispute about the application of EU law then the European Court would end up as the final arbiter.

At the risk of hammering the point, the UK could try to reduce the European Court's influence on Northern Ireland by starting a huge legal argument, but actually end up with its influence being confirmed.

Mid-November has been pencilled in for several months, as the moment when an actual decision was going to have to be made.

That final conclusion has not yet been reached.

And given what could be at stake, both sides would still, in theory, like the negotiations to work.

But we are approaching a moment where Downing Street may decide that the huge political and economic risks of triggering Article 16 are worth it, that the downsides of the protocol are no longer tolerable, and efforts to find a compromise have run their course.

Yet the potential outcomes might make the last stormy seven days look like a moment of deep calm.

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiL2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL3VrLXBvbGl0aWNzLTU5MjU2MTUz0gEzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmJjLmNvLnVrL25ld3MvdWstcG9saXRpY3MtNTkyNTYxNTMuYW1w?oc=5

2021-11-12 10:48:31Z
1101920545

Polish border crisis will fuel Channel migrant surge, officials fear - The Times

Thousands more asylum seekers will attempt to cross the Channel by Christmas because of the escalating migrant crisis on Poland’s border, government officials fear.

Yesterday more than 1,000 migrants crossed the Channel from northern France in small boats, the highest number to arrive in a single day. Three migrants who attempted to make the journey in kayaks are feared to have died after going missing off Calais.

Yesterday’s surge took the number of migrant crossings this year to more than 23,000, almost three times the total for all of 2020.

Damian Collins on Channel migrant crossings

Sources in Border Force and the Home Office said that thousands more could attempt the dangerous 21-mile journey from Calais to Dover in the wake of the migrant crisis that has emerged on Poland’s border

Adblock test (Why?)


https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMibmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZXRpbWVzLmNvLnVrL2FydGljbGUvZnJlbmNoLWFsbG93LW5lYXJseS0yLTAwMC1taWdyYW50cy10by1jcm9zcy10aGUtY2hhbm5lbC1pbi1hLXdlZWstNmczcjNobmR60gEA?oc=5

2021-11-12 12:00:00Z
1154445618