Babak Belurs

Jumat, 04 Juni 2021

COVID-19: Anger amid reports end of lockdown will be delayed - with social distancing remaining in pubs - Sky News

The government is being urged to remove all restrictions on hospitality businesses on 21 June, as reports suggest that the final stage of England's roadmap out of lockdown could be delayed by two weeks.

The British Beer & Pub Association has warned that thousands of pubs "could still be lost forever", even though indoor service returned on 17 May.

Figures suggest that pubs suffered a 20% fall in trade in the first week after reopening compared with the same period before the pandemic - and if this continues, the average venue could lose £94,000 in turnover a year.

This would mean that the typical pub would need to sell close to 25,000 additional pints over a 12-month period to make over the shortfall.

At present, pubs are required to ensure social distancing of at least one metre is in place. Businesses can also only operate with table service, and group sizes indoors are limited to six people.

All legal limits on social contact are due to be lifted on 21 June, but concerns about this milestone have been raised - with official data for England showing that COVID-19 cases in the community rose by 76.5% in one week.

The Office for National Statistics has estimated that 85,600 people in the country had COVID-19 in the week to 29 May, the highest level since mid-April.

According to the i newspaper, social distancing in bars and restaurants is likely to remain - meanwhile, The Daily Telegraph says the final stage of Boris Johnson's roadmap could be pushed back to 5 July.

This delay would be used to accelerate second jabs for the over-40s, with those aged over 25 to be offered their first doses from next week.

The Financial Times has also reported that contingency plans are being drawn up to delay the fourth and final stage of restrictions easing if data suggests it is necessary.

A source told the newspaper: "Irreversibility is key to this. The prime minister doesn't want to go backwards, so if it's a choice of more measures in the future, I think he can stomach a minor delay."

The hospitality sector has reacted with alarm to these reports.

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Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UKHospitality, said: "Sorry but leaving social distancing in place in pubs, restaurants, hotels and attractions means that 21 June is not freedom date at all.

"It means that those businesses continue to operate at a loss and threatens the long-term viability of businesses, jobs and the recovery."

Sacha Lord, night time economy adviser for Greater Manchester, said he was "up for a fight" over the possible shift, adding: "Hospitality is the fifth biggest industry in the UK - 21 June is make or break for many."

And the British Beer & Pub Association said venues will need more financial support for the government if restrictions aren't eased on this date as planned.

Wales First Minister Mark Drakeford has already said he is considering keeping social distancing rules for the rest of this year, describing them as "one of the strongest defences that we have" against the virus.

No 10 sources have said suggestions of a delay to the roadmap are "speculation" and the prime minister has previously said there is "nothing in the data at the moment" that would prevent the country taking the next step.

Yesterday, the UK recorded 6,238 new confirmed coronavirus cases - the highest level since late March.

The increase has been fuelled by the spread of the Indian variant, also known as the Delta variant.

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2021-06-05 02:03:45Z
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UK readies contingency plans to delay June 21 lockdown easing - Financial Times

Civil servants are drawing up contingency plans to delay the June 21 easing of England’s lockdown restrictions, as the UK reported another large rise in coronavirus cases on Friday.

Pressure from scientists on prime minister Boris Johnson to leave some Covid-19 measures in place for England intensified with further evidence that the more contagious Delta variant originally detected in India was displacing the previously dominant Alpha (Kent) variant and pushing up infections fast.

On Friday, 6,238 further cases of Covid-19 were reported, the most since March 15. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 85,600 people in England were infected in the week to May 29 — about one in every 640 — up from one in 1,120 people the week before.

A senior civil servant closely involved with coronavirus planning said officials were drawing up contingency plans to delay the fourth and final phase of easing, possibly to July 5, if the data suggested it was necessary. “A variety of options are being drawn up, including a delay to step four and trading off some measures against others.”

Another Whitehall insider said there was an increasing sense that a “smallish delay” may be likely. “Irreversibility is key to this. The prime minister doesn’t want to go backwards, so if it’s a choice of more measures in the future, I think he can stomach a minor delay,” they said.

But one senior Downing Street official cautioned “we’re not in that space yet” for a delay. “There’s still nothing in the data that shows we need to change our plans.” The official added that there would be more clarity in the data by the end of next week.

The Independent Sage group of scientists issued an “emergency statement” urging the government to rule out immediately plans to lift the last restrictions on June 21. Professor Christina Pagel, a mathematician at University College London, told the group’s weekly briefing: “We now have an exponentially increasing dominant variant that is more transmissible, more vaccine resistant and likely more severe than Alpha.”

But studies show full inoculation has been effective so far in reducing hospitalisation and deaths from the Delta strain.

Sir John Bell, Regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, told the Financial Times that the proportion of fully vaccinated people in the UK remained “too low” for him to feel “entirely comfortable” with a full unlocking on June 21, adding that it was sensible to wait for more data to become available before a final decision was made.

By June 3, half of the adult UK population had received both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine. According to Public Health England, both the Oxford/AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines are only 33 per cent effective against symptomatic disease after one dose, with efficacy rising steeply after the second dose.

“I think we need to go further . . . I’d be a lot more comfortable if we were closer to 70 per cent by June 21,” said Bell. “My sense is that if things look on the edge or are starting to get more serious then running it out for another two weeks would help manage that, while we get everybody vaccinated.”

However, he added his concerns were “tempered” by the fact that scientists had yet to identify “a truly vaccine resistant strain” and the number of hospital admissions was not gaining pace.

Hospital admissions dipped 2 per cent in the UK in the week to May 31. Deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test fell by three to just 55 in the week to June 4.

Also on Friday, the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency extended its approval for the Pfizer Covid vaccine to 12 to 15-year-olds, following a similar decision by the European Medicines Agency last week.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation will advise whether the government’s inoculation programme against Covid-19 will be extended to this age group. It is not clear when that will happen. Currently, in the UK, vaccination is not routinely offered to patients aged younger than 18.

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2021-06-04 17:39:16Z
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COVID-19: UK records highest daily coronavirus cases for more than two months - as England's R number rises - Sky News

The UK has recorded a further 6,238 coronavirus cases - the highest daily figure for more than two months - as England's R number continues to rise.

The latest government numbers also show another 11 COVID-19 related deaths.

The number for cases is up on the 5,274 recorded on Thursday but the death figure is down on the 18 recorded in yesterday's daily figures.

Live COVID updates from the UK and around the world

The number of cases is the highest since 25 March, when 6,397 were recorded.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) earlier updated its estimate for England's R number to be between 1 and 1.2, up from between 1 and 1.1 previously.

This means that for every 10 people with COVID, between 10 and 12 more people will catch the virus.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

Meanwhile, another 191,266 first and 377,641 second vaccine doses were administered, bringing the total number of people who have had one jab to 39,949,694 and those who have had two to 26,799,944.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that a rise of cases was to be expected as the country came out of lockdown.

He said: "We always expected cases to rise as the country was opened up, the critical thing is the impact on the number of people who end up in hospital for any given number of cases.

"That link has been broken by the vaccine, but it hasn't been completely severed yet.

"That's one of the things that we're watching very carefully, and it's too early to say what the decision will be ahead of 21 June, but we'll make sure people know in good time."

It comes amid the news that the UK's medicines regulator approved the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine for 12 to 15-year-olds.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said the decision followed a "rigorous review" of safety and effectiveness in that age group - and that the benefits of having the COVID jab outweighed the risks.

Dr June Raine, MHRA chief executive, said: "We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group."

The move follows coronavirus cases in the community rocketing by 76.5% in just one week, according to official data for England.

And Public Health England (PHE) officials said that the Delta variant - first identified in India - has now overtaken the Alpha (Kent) variant as the most dominant strain in the UK.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 85,600 people in the country had COVID-19 in the week to 29 May - equating to around one in 640 people in private households.

This is the highest level since the week to 16 April and is up from 48,500 people - one in 1,120 people - in the week ending 22 May.

The figures are likely to be among the data considered by the prime minister as he decides on whether to drop the last coronavirus restrictions on 21 June.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under pressure to press ahead with the unlocking - dubbed "freedom day" by some - following the successful rollout of vaccines, despite the rise in cases.

Analysis: Scientists predicted a new wave of cases, but vaccines are effective

By Thomas Moore, Science correspondent

COVID cases are once again rising fast, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

But the increase is concentrated in a few hotspots, predominantly the north-west of England. Elsewhere cases are drifting upwards much more slowly.

The surge of infections in children across the country is more of a concern. They have lots of contact with adults so they could spread the virus in lots of different directions.

Government scientists had predicted a third wave of cases once the brakes came off lockdown.

But two shots of the vaccine are highly effective against even the Delta variant, which should blunt any increase in hospital admissions and deaths.

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2021-06-04 17:32:26Z
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COVID-19: 'Panic' and 'devastation' for Britons in Portugal as country comes off travel green list - Sky News

Britons in Portugal who are scrambling to get back to the UK to beat next week's quarantine deadline face paying hundreds of pounds more for earlier flights.

Passengers arriving in Britain after 4am on Tuesday will need to self-isolate at home for 10 days after the government announced it was removing the southern European country from the green list and putting it on the amber list.

A seat on a Ryanair flight from the capital Lisbon to Manchester on Monday costs £339, whereas the same route is just £75 on Wednesday.

Also British Airways is charging £348 for flights from Faro to Heathrow on Sunday and Monday, but the price drops to £137 on Tuesday.

The UK's largest tour operator, Tui, said it has 9,500 customers in Portugal but that figure was already due to have fallen to 2,000 by Tuesday because of the end of half-term for schoolchildren.

The firm is allowing consumers to change dates, but is not offering refunds as the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office does not advise against travel to the country.

Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said positive COVID-19 cases had doubled in the last three weeks in Portugal.

But Britons living and holidaying in the EU nation and others who planned to visit soon have spoken of their panic and devastation following the change in travel status.

Lauren Dunne

Ms Dunne was due to come home from Portugal on Tuesday, and she has had to rebook for Sunday.

She told Sky News: "We panicked and booked a flight for tonight because we were so worried it would come in with immediate effect, and we can't self isolate. We've managed to move our flights to Sunday but we're still losing money on the hotel.

"It should just never have happened. The infection rate here is the same as the UK, especially in this part of Portugal. Why let us come in the first place if they were going to make us isolate?"

Michelle and Noel Brennan

The Brennans have a house in Portugal, and say they are "devastated" the country is going on to the amber list.

Michelle Brennan said: "I can't believe we're going through this again. It's just like last year, total chaos. It's just so sad."

Rogerio Martins

Mr Martins runs the Casa de Praia beach bar in Vilamoura.

He says 80% of his customers are British and "the decision to put Portugal on the amber list just doesn't make sense, the numbers aren't bad in this part of Portugal".

He added: "Things were just getting back to normal, I don't know how we'll cope now without our British customers."

Alexandra Teixeira

Ms Teixeira, from London, had been due to be reunited with her family in Portugal for the first time in 18 months but says her hopes were "crushed" at the last minute by the government's decision.

The retail worker said: "Portugal's status changing so last-minute has made everyone stressed.

"I was planning to go on Monday and decided to cancel it because Portugal got moved to the amber list.

"I work in retail so quarantining at home for 10 days after coming back isn't really an option."

Ms Teixeira, 24, said she is "sad and frustrated" at not being able to see her family after such a long time apart.

Simon Smith

Travellers have to take a COVID-19 test three days before their flight to the UK and this is leading to difficulties for Britons due to a reported lack of tests available.

Property developer Simon Smith from Stamford, Lincolnshire, is currently in the Lagos area with his wife and two young children.

He hopes they can fly home on Saturday, earlier than planned, but they have been unable to get tested despite visiting five medical centres and the region's main hospital.

He was turned away from one centre after it ran out of testing kits.

"There were about 35 people in the queue, all British, and they told us, 'the first 15 are okay, but the rest of you might as well go home because we don't have enough tests'," he said.

The family have been told the airport has a small amount of coronavirus tests available, so plan on turning up to their flight five hours early in the hopes of getting one.

"If we can't get that, we can't fly," he said. "I have meetings on Friday, I can't afford 10 days' quarantine, it is a joke."

Professor Henrique Barros

A Portuguese epidemiologist claimed the UK's decision to move Portugal to the amber tier was "an overreaction".

Professor Henrique Barros, president of Portugal's National Health Council, said the country's overall coronavirus situation is "relatively stable".

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2021-06-04 16:46:18Z
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'Nepal variant': What's the mutation stopping green list trips to Portugal? - BBC News

Portugal is to be removed from the UK's green list of countries that are safe to visit.

The government said it's partly down to the emergence of a "Nepal variant" - but such a variant has not been recognised by the World Health Organization (WHO). So, what's going on?

Why was Portugal removed from the green list?

Announcing Portugal's move to the amber list, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said there was a "Nepal mutation of the so-called Indian variant". He said it wasn't known whether it could be "vaccine defeating".

And speaking to the BBC, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the Indian variant was spreading and there was "growing evidence of a further mutation- what's become known as the Nepal variant".

The government said it did not want to take risks before the planned final easing of England's restrictions. Being on the amber list means UK tourists should not visit Portugal and returnees must isolate for 10 days.

Where is on the green list for holiday travel?

Is there a Nepal variant?

A mutated virus has been spotted in Nepal and elsewhere. But that doesn't mean a new variant of coronavirus has been found.

The WHO said it was "not aware of any new variant of SARS-CoV-2 being detected in Nepal", and the dominant variant there was the Delta or Indian variant.

A small number of cases of the Delta variant have been identified as having an extra mutation - called K417N.

The change is in the virus's distinctive spike protein and has been seen before, including in the so-called South African or Beta variant.

Samples of the Delta variant with this extra change have been spotted about 90 times worldwide. Of these, 12 cases were spotted in Portugal, 36 in the UK, 12 in the US and four in India.

It is not clear that 12 cases is enough to count as being "prevalent within Portugal", as Mr Jenrick claimed.

More up-to-date UK data from Public Health England suggests 43 cases have now been spotted through genetic analysis (a process called sequencing). The UK does a lot of genomic sequencing so is likely to find more cases than countries that do less.

The Wellcome Sanger Institute said it had been observed "once in Nepal (which does very little sequencing), and 14 times in Japan, of which 13 are samples from airport quarantine from travellers from Nepal".

When does a mutation become a variant?

Remember that viruses mutate constantly. When the changes are drastic enough, we start describing it as a new variant - like the Alpha variant identified in Kent, the Beta variant identified in South Africa and so on.

There is no scientifically agreed definition of when a mutation becomes a variant. We usually have to wait until a particular set of changes spreads enough that we can see a pattern.

Public health bodies and people who analyse or sequence the virus's genetic material investigate any changes to the virus.

If a distinctive set of changes, or variant, appears to be spreading better, making people sicker or resisting vaccines, then it will be upgraded to being a "variant of concern".

This hasn't happened with the mutation identified in Nepal and elsewhere, so far.

It is mentioned by Public Health England as a "spike mutation of interest", but it is not categorised as a variant.

Other mutations that didn't amount to new variants have been spotted in Egypt, Vietnam and Yorkshire.

In February, a small number of cases of the UK or Alpha variant were found with a mutation, called E484K, that is already seen in the South Africa variant. It was feared this change could reduce vaccine effectiveness, but the mutation never took off.

Will the Nepal mutation become a problem?

This change to the virus's spike protein is also seen in the Beta or South African variant.

It is thought to be part of why that variant is more resistant to vaccines.

"Because of this possibility, and because Delta appears more transmissible than Beta, scientists are monitoring it carefully," the Sanger Institute explained.

What other factors decide the green list?

As well as concerning variants, the government says it looks at factors including how many cases of coronavirus a country has.

Positive results in Portugal have nearly doubled since the last review, the government said, adding the situation "has required swift action to protect the gains made with the [UK] vaccine rollout".

Mr Jenrick said there had been a "doubling in positivity within three weeks, bringing Portugal to a much higher level than here in the UK".

Cases have risen considerably in Portugal over the last few weeks, but they are in fact only a little higher than in the UK (5.4 new cases per 100,000 compared with 5.1).

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A SIMPLE GUIDE: What are the symptoms?
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'Nepal variant': What's the mutation stopping green list trips to Portugal? - BBC News

Portugal has been removed from the UK's green list of countries which are safe to visit.

The government said it's partly down to the emergence of a "Nepal variant" - but such a variant has not been recognised by the World Health Organization (WHO). So, what's going on?

Why was Portugal removed from the green list?

And speaking to the BBC, Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the Indian variant was spreading and there was "growing evidence of a further mutation- what's become known as the Nepal variant".

Where is on the green list for holiday travel?

Is there a Nepal variant?

A mutated virus has been spotted in Nepal and elsewhere. But that doesn't mean a new variant of coronavirus has been found.

The WHO said it was "not aware of any new variant of SARS-CoV-2 being detected in Nepal", and the dominant variant there was the Delta or Indian variant.

A small number of cases of the Delta variant have been identified as having an extra mutation - called K417N.

The change is in the virus's distinctive spike protein and has been seen before, including in the so-called South African or Beta variant.

Samples of the Delta variant with this extra change have been spotted about 90 times. Of these, 12 cases were spotted in Portugal, 36 in the UK, 12 in the US and four in India.

When does a mutation become a variant?

Remember viruses mutate constantly. When the changes are drastic enough, we start describing it as a new variant - like the Alpha variant identified in Kent, the Beta variant identified in South Africa and so on.

There is no scientifically agreed definition of when a mutation becomes a variant. We usually have to wait until a particular set of changes spreads enough that we can see a pattern.

Public health bodies and people who analyse or sequence the virus's genetic material investigate any changes to the virus.

If a distinctive set of changes, or variant, appears to be spreading better, making people sicker or resisting vaccines, then it will be upgraded to being a "variant of concern".

This hasn't happened with the mutation identified in Nepal and elsewhere, so far.

It is mentioned by Public Health England as a "spike mutation of interest", but it is not categorised as a variant.

Other mutations which didn't amount to new variants have been spotted in Egypt, Vietnam and Yorkshire.

Will the Nepal mutation become a problem?

This change to the virus's spike protein is also seen in the Beta or South African variant.

It is thought to be part of why that variant is more resistant to vaccines.

"Because of this possibility, and because Delta appears more transmissible than Beta, scientists are monitoring it carefully," the Sanger Institute explained.

What other factors decide the green list?

As well as concerning variants, the government says it looks at factors including how many cases of coronavirus a country has.

The number of positive Covid cases in Portugal has nearly doubled since the last review, the government said, adding the situation "has required swift action to protect the gains made with the [UK] vaccine rollout".

Cases have risen considerably in Portugal over the last few weeks, but they are only a little higher than in the UK (5.4 new cases per 100,000 compared with 5.1).

EASY STEPS: How to keep safe
A SIMPLE GUIDE: What are the symptoms?
CONTAINMENT: What it means to self-isolate
MAPS AND CHARTS: Visual guide to the outbreak

COVID cases in England soar by 76.5% in a week, ONS estimates show - Sky News

Coronavirus cases in the community rocketed by 76.5% in just one week, official data for England indicates.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 85,600 people in the country had COVID-19 in the week to May 29 - equating to around one in 640 people in private households.

This is the highest level since the week to 16 April and is up from 48,500 people - one in 1,120 people - in the week ending 22 May.

Live COVID updates from the UK and around the world

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 is estimated to have increased in North West England, the East Midlands and South West England.

There are also signs of a possible increase in the West Midlands and London while the trend is uncertain for other regions, the ONS said.

In many regions positivity rates are very low, meaning trends are difficult to identify since they are affected by small changes in the number of people testing positive from week to week.

The North West had the highest proportion of people of any region in England likely to test positive for coronavirus in the week to 29 May - around one in 280.

South East England had the lowest estimate - around one in 1,490.

The figures are likely to be among the data considered by the prime minister as he decides on whether to drop the last coronavirus restrictions on 21 June.

Boris Johnson is under pressure to press ahead with the unlocking - dubbed "freedom day" by some - following the successful rollout of vaccines.

However, concerns persist over the spread of the Indian variant, also known as the Delta variant.

The figures are likely to be among the data considered by the prime minister as he decides on whether to drop the last coronavirus restrictions on 21 June.

In Wales, which is moving to further ease lockdown measures, there also are "early signs" of an increase in the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus, with 2,900 people - around one in 1,050 - estimated to have had COVID-19 in the week to 29 May, the ONS said.

This is up from 800 - one in 3,850 - the previous week and is the highest estimate since the week to 16 April.

It represents an overall hike of 262.5%.

In Northern Ireland the trend is "uncertain", with an estimate of around one in 800 for the week to 29 May, broadly unchanged from one in 820 in the previous week.

The trend is also "uncertain" for Scotland, where the latest estimate is around one in 680, broadly unchanged from one in 630.

All figures are for people in private households.

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2021-06-04 12:33:45Z
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Jumat, 04 Juni 2021

More on Covid-19

More on Covid-19

More on Covid-19

Why was Portugal removed from the green list?

Is there a Nepal variant?

When does a mutation become a variant?

Will the Nepal mutation become a problem?

What other factors decide the green list?

Why was Portugal removed from the green list?

Is there a Nepal variant?

When does a mutation become a variant?

Will the Nepal mutation become a problem?

What other factors decide the green list?

More on Covid-19