COVID-19: Calls for Monday's lockdown easing to be delayed, as SAGE warns variant could pressure hospitals - Sky News

Easing lockdown measures in England on Monday could cause "a substantial resurgence" in hospital admissions that is similar to previous peaks or larger, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has warned.

Minutes of a meeting on Thursday suggest there is a "realistic possibility" that the Indian variant of COVID-19 is 50% more transmissible than the one that emerged in Kent late last year.

However, SAGE said there is no clear evidence that this coronavirus variant causes more serious illness, and hospital admissions currently remain low in affected areas.

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'I have to level with you': PM airs variant concerns

The group said that if higher levels of transmissibility are confirmed, moving to step three on Monday could "lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)".

The scientists also acknowledged that when it comes to vaccines against the Indian variant, there "may be some reduction in protection".

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At a Downing Street briefing yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the new variant could delay the fourth stage of lockdown easing on 21 June.

He stressed plans to relax rules on Monday are going to proceed as planned, despite a number of scientists calling for a delay.

The government has set out four tests that must be met for lockdowns to be eased - but Professor Christina Pagel, a member of the Independent SAGE group of experts, has said that one of these tests has not been met.

While the vaccine rollout has been successful and has helped reduce hospital admissions and deaths, and current infection rates do not risk putting unsustainable pressure on the NHS, she warned this new variant of concern increases the risks associated with relaxing the rules.

On Tuesday, she said moving to stage three of the roadmap "risks adding fuel to the fire", adding that attention should turn to ensuring the Indian variant isn't a threat - or stamping it out.

"Personally, I would like to slow down now to reduce chance of reversing the map later risking more uncertainty, more damaging closures and longer recovery from a worse situation. We need to learn from previous experience," Prof Pagel wrote in a Twitter thread.

During Friday's Downing Street briefing, England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said the Indian variant is expected to become the most dominant in the UK over time.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) has also warned it could cause a "significant resurgence" of COVID-19 because "there are still too few adults vaccinated" to stop its progress.

However, the prime minister has stressed there is no evidence to suggest that vaccines currently in use would be less effective against the Indian variant, which is known as B.1.617.2.

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Indian variant expected to become 'dominant'

Four people died in the UK with the Indian variant of COVID-19 - the first known domestic deaths - between 5 May and 12 May.

Public Health England also said on Thursday there had been 1,313 cases in England of the Indian variant in a week, more than double the previous week's figure.

While the news represents a new watershed for the virus, Sky's Ed Conway says it does not necessarily imply the new variant is any more lethal than the others in circulation around the UK.

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What do we know about Indian variant?

Mr Johnson has unveiled plans to accelerate vaccinations among the over-50s and those who are clinically vulnerable. Instead of receiving their second dose 12 weeks after their first, the final jab will now be delivered within eight weeks.

Scotland is preparing to drop to Level 2 restrictions on Monday, meaning cinemas, theatres, concert halls and stadiums can reopen.

However, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced that Glasgow and Moray will remain in Level 3 of the five-tier system for a week after both areas experienced a surge in cases.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health and Social Care has said that care home residents will be able to nominate five visitors for regular visits when lockdown eases on Monday.

Residents will be able to see a maximum of two visitors a day, who can either attend together or separately. Young children will not be included in this figure.

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2021-05-15 02:39:10Z
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Channel crossings: Nigel Farage predicts 20,000 illegal migrants will make journey in 2021 - Express

His comments come after nine boats carrying almost 200 migrants made the journey in one day this week. The Home Office said that a further 53 people were prevented from making the journey by French authorities on Thursday.

So far, more than 2,500 people in small boats have reached the UK in 2021 so far which is an increase of more than 1,000 compared to the same period last year.

In a video published on his YouTube channel, the former Brexit Party leader predicted that the figures will continue to grow rapidly.

Mr Farage said: “Let me tell you that, to date, the number that have come illegally across the English, at least the number we know of, is now approaching 3,000.

“I said this time last year that 5,000 people might come throughout 2020. I was wrong. Completely wrong.

“The figure was 8,500 and I’m telling you on the current projections this year it is going to be 20,000 people.”

Mr Farage went on to claim that “this crisis” will continue unless the Government takes action.

He added: “I’m afraid 2021 is going to get a lot worse. So this is my first attempt to flag what is really going on this year.”

Home Secretary Priti Patel is set to introduce tough new measures to crack down on migrants crossing the Channel as well as making it easier for the Government to deport foreign criminals.

READ MORE: Channel crossing sees 3x more migrants this year compared to 2020

“Instead, you are choosing the UK as your preferred destination and you are doing so at the expense of those with nowhere else to go.”

Under Ms Patel’s plans, asylum seekers who enter the UK through irregular means, including crossing the Channel by a small boat, will have fewer rights than those who arrive through safe and legal routes.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) warned this would create a “discriminatory two-tier asylum system” and “risk breaching international legal commitments”.

The British Red Cross also shared similar concerns over the proposals and urged the UK to “play its part globally by introducing more safe routes for people fleeing war, persecution and violence who are in need of safety, that go beyond the current plans”.

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2021-05-15 04:28:00Z
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COVID-19: Calls for Monday's lockdown easing to be delayed, as SAGE warns variant could pressure hospitals - Sky News

Easing lockdown measures in England on Monday could cause "a substantial resurgence" in hospital admissions that is similar to previous peaks or larger, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has warned.

Minutes of a meeting on Thursday suggest there is a "realistic possibility" that the Indian variant of COVID-19 is 50% more transmissible than the one that emerged in Kent late last year.

However, SAGE said there is no clear evidence that this coronavirus variant causes more serious illness, and hospital admissions currently remain low in affected areas.

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'I have to level with you': PM airs variant concerns

At a Downing Street briefing yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the new variant could delay the fourth stage of lockdown easing on 21 June.

He stressed plans to relax rules on Monday are going to proceed as planned, despite a number of scientists calling for a delay.

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The government has set out four tests that must be met for lockdowns to be eased - but Professor Christina Pagel, a member of the Independent SAGE group of experts, has said that one of these tests has not been met.

While the vaccine rollout has been successful and has helped reduce hospital admissions and deaths, and current infection rates do not risk putting unsustainable pressure on the NHS, she warned this new variant of concern increases the risks associated with relaxing the rules.

More on Covid-19

On Tuesday, she said moving to stage three of the roadmap "risks adding fuel to the fire", adding that attention should turn to ensuring the Indian variant isn't a threat - or stamping it out.

"Personally, I would like to slow down now to reduce chance of reversing the map later risking more uncertainty, more damaging closures and longer recovery from a worse situation. We need to learn from previous experience," Prof Pagel wrote in a Twitter thread.

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COVID: Variant questions over COVID unlocking

During Friday's Downing Street briefing, England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said the Indian variant is expected to become the most dominant in the UK over time.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) has also warned it could cause a "significant resurgence" of COVID-19 because "there are still too few adults vaccinated" to stop its progress.

However, the prime minister has stressed there is no evidence to suggest that vaccines currently in use would be less effective against the Indian variant, which is known as B.1.617.2.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Indian variant expected to become 'dominant'

Four people died in the UK with the Indian variant of COVID-19 - the first known domestic deaths - between 5 May and 12 May.

Public Health England also said on Thursday there had been 1,313 cases in England of the Indian variant in a week, more than double the previous week's figure.

While the news represents a new watershed for the virus, Sky's Ed Conway says it does not necessarily imply the new variant is any more lethal than the others in circulation around the UK.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What do we know about Indian variant?

Mr Johnson has unveiled plans to accelerate vaccinations among the over-50s and those who are clinically vulnerable. Instead of receiving their second dose 12 weeks after their first, the final jab will now be delivered within eight weeks.

Scotland is preparing to drop to Level 2 restrictions on Monday, meaning cinemas, theatres, concert halls and stadiums can reopen.

However, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced that Glasgow and Moray will remain in Level 3 of the five-tier system for a week after both areas experienced a surge in cases.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health and Social Care has said that care home residents will be able to nominate five visitors for regular visits when lockdown eases on Monday.

Residents will be able to see a maximum of two visitors a day, who can either attend together or separately. Young children will not be included in this figure.

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2021-05-15 02:28:46Z
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UK troops seize IS weapons in Mali operation - BBC News

MOD

AK47 rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition are among a cache of suspected Islamic State weapons that have been seized by UK troops in Mali.

Around 100 soldiers took part in efforts to retrieve the weapons in a village close to the border with Niger, where the Ministry of Defence said locals were being threatened.

Suspected IS members had earlier fled by swimming across a river, it added.

The operation was carried out in a sandstorm and temperatures above 50C.

Soldiers also seized camouflage clothing, radios, mobile phones and hundreds of litres of fuel after being cleared by the United Nations to search buildings.

They are part of a UK task force that arrived in the West African country in December to assist with a broader UN peacekeeping mission.

The task force conducts long-range reconnaissance patrols to protect the local population from a rising tide of violent Islamist extremism.

• Mali country profile

The operation in the village, close to the border with Niger, involved soldiers from the the Light Dragoons and Royal Anglian Regiment, supported by a specialist Royal Engineer search team.

MOD

MOD

Lt Col Tom Robinson, Commanding Officer of the Light Dragoons, said they had acted on intelligence gathered during patrols.

"We focused on where terrorist groups were intimidating local people and were then able to find and seize the weapons and supplies, disrupting their harmful influence on local communities and gathering more information that will help interrupt further extremist activity," he said.

The MoD said it was the first targeted "cordon and search" operation carried out in this way by UN forces in Mali.

A cell of suspected IS fighters fled by swimming across the River Niger, it added - leaving behind the weapons and equipment, which have been passed on to the UN and Malian authorities.

The UN Mission in Mali is made up of more than 14,000 peacekeepers from 56 different countries.

It has been described as the most dangerous peacekeeping mission in the world.

Almost 250 UN soldiers have lost their lives there since 2013.

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2021-05-15 00:30:38Z
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Is there a future for Alex Salmond? - BBC News

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For the past few months, a civil war has been playing out in the Scottish independence movement. After Alex Salmond's election result, has Nicola Sturgeon won?

As results from the Scottish election started to dribble in last Friday, I got a call from a well-connected SNP source. With more than a little relief in their voice, they were emphatic that Alex Salmond's Alba party had crashed and burned, with no chance of winning a seat.

Alba was launched at the start of the six-week Scottish Parliament election campaign and its presence had made some in the SNP nervous.

Not because they expected the party to win a significant number of seats - most in the SNP predicted two at the most. But the thought of Alex Salmond back at Holyrood, putting pressure on Nicola Sturgeon to move quicker on independence, a former first minister watching over his successor's shoulder and making life difficult, left some worried.

As it became clear that wasn't going to happen, that even Mr Salmond himself was going to fail to win a seat on the North East list, many in the SNP breathed a sigh of relief.

"They're dead," concluded one source close to Nicola Sturgeon.

The Salmond effect?

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Alex Salmond launched Alba in the immediate aftermath of one of the most dramatic periods of the devolution era.

The 66-year-old had accused Nicola Sturgeon of breaking the ministerial code over her handling of sexual harassment allegations made against him - a charge which could have cost her her job as first minister.

She was cleared by the independent adviser on the code but this came after extraordinary testimony in the Scottish Parliament which laid bare the extent to which the relationship between the pair had collapsed.

Once the closest of political allies, the dream team of the SNP, they had become bitter political enemies engaged in a very public fight to be believed.

Within days Mr Salmond had launched Alba with bold ambitions.

Senior figures in the new party confidently predicted they could win up to 18 seats at Holyrood - enough to make them the fourth largest bloc in the Scottish Parliament.

• Alba party to contest 2022 council elections
• Sturgeon cleared of breaching ministerial code

They believed such a result would be a launch pad to challenge the SNP's position as the main party of independence - holding their feet to the fire with the threat that if they didn't make enough progress, Alba was ready to take up the fight.

This party didn't see itself as just a protest movement, it saw itself as a major player with significant room for growth. The polls painted a very different picture, suggesting Alba was going to struggle to make any impact at all.

But the party was convinced it was on to something, asking SNP supporters for their regional list vote. In election week, candidates still believed there would be a group of Alba MSPs at Holyrood. One told me five to eight would be a realistic target.

That confidence proved to be completely misplaced. Alba won 1.7% of the regional vote list across Scotland. That's roughly a third of what was needed.

Across the country, the party won fewer than 45,000 votes. For those who had believed a few weeks earlier than they could poll well over 10% - this was a crushing outcome.

For the SNP, it was vindication.

A source close to Nicola Sturgeon concluded: "We have triumphed. This will hopefully bury them, him in particular".

Nicola Sturgeon's triumph?

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Talk of a new pro-independence party had been on the lips of Scottish politics watchers for a while.

Some elements of the SNP had been deeply unhappy with Nicola Sturgeon over her strategy to secure another referendum, as well as her plans to make it easier for people to self-identify their gender.

Many of them sided with Mr Salmond when he was accused of sexual harassment - and felt justified when he was cleared.

When Alba was launched, six weeks before the election, it marked a significant moment. Mr Salmond was breaking the link between some natural SNP supporters and the party.

Two MPs and a number of councillors defected. Alba said it had 5,000 members - and believed many of them were the most active in the independence movement.

But Mr Salmond struggled for air time - frequently criticising broadcasters like the BBC for not paying more attention to the party during the campaign. When he did interviews, he faced difficult questions about his past conduct.

Some in the independence movement were horrified at Mr Salmond's approach to the campaign and Alba's use of Robert the Bruce's memory in a campaign video.

Mr Salmond's personal approval ratings were, some polls suggested, even lower than Boris Johnson's in Scotland.

• What is the Salmond and Sturgeon row all about?
• Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new party

The Alba strategy appeared to win over the more radical supporters of independence, who were fed up of what they saw as delay. It turned out not enough people were prepared to abandon the SNP to make an impact.

As the dust settles after the election, Ms Sturgeon sits in a more comfortable position than she has for some time. The SNP has shown it can still win electoral support across the movement.

Ms Sturgeon's position of holding an independence referendum once the Covid pandemic has passed is supported by the Scottish Greens.

The two pro-referendum parties who make up a majority in the Scottish Parliament agree that a referendum should happen in the next five years, but don't want to rush it. Neither wants to adopt Mr Salmond's approach of going into independence talks quickly.

There will still be pressure on Ms Sturgeon from within her party and the wider movement. There are prominent figures who believe she has been too timid and hasn't done enough to force another referendum in the face of opposition from Downing Street.

It is less than clear how the impasse between Edinburgh and London will end, but Ms Sturgeon has more control over her own side.

Her pitch led to another comfortable election victory, while the more militant approach of Mr Salmond failed to yield results.

So is this the end of Alex Salmond?

Alba be back?

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Despite the humiliating result, it seems Alba isn't ready to throw in the towel just yet.

On Friday the party confirmed it will contest next year's council elections in Scotland, and last week Mr Salmond said it would continue to make the case for more urgency on independence.

"Alba is here to stay," he declared. "In only six weeks Alba has established itself as a political force with which to be reckoned."

The confidence of the campaign has not disappeared. The two MPs who defected when Alba was launched still plan to form a group at Westminster.

Kenny MacAskill, the former Scottish justice secretary, is one of them. He told me: "Those who want an independent Scotland AND a radical agenda need a home - Alba will be there".

There is little sign of regret from those who defected from the SNP. They still believe their former party has gone soft on independence - and that pressure will be needed in the coming years.

They continue to believe the plan to target regional list votes could have worked if more people had voted tactically - one candidate pointed to the SNP winning a million regional votes - which won it just two seats under the system.

Mr MacAskill believes the Holyrood campaign was too short for Alba to make an impact - but that their message was correct. Over time, he argues, it will have a role in Scottish politics.

But some believe that Mr Salmond's career is now essentially over. One SNP politician told me: "It's sad in some respects. But in others I think, hell mend you".

Another senior SNP figure said: "They should never get an inch of coverage ever again".

Alex Salmond has been one of the most significant figures in modern Scottish politics. But in the last couple of years, he has also been one of the most divisive - particularly with his own side.

Some see him as a hero who is dedicated to the cause - others a narcissist who launched Alba to keep himself relevant.

It is unlikely Mr Salmond will disappear from the public eye completely. He is still planning to sue the Scottish government again over its unlawful handling of harassment allegations against him.

He may well still try and influence the debate over independence. Alba is keen for him to stay on as leader and grow the party.

But after a number of political comebacks, a return to the Scottish Parliament proved too much.

Some in the SNP hope it is the end of the career of a man they once idolised.

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2021-05-14 22:06:19Z
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Gordon Brown's emotional rally against the SNP's healthcare 'lie' unveiled - Express

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has launched a new campaign to keep the Union together by appealing to the voters of “Middle Scotland”. Mr Brown said his two-year-old thinktank "Our Scottish Future" was being converted into a “campaigning movement”. He said it would put “the positive, progressive and patriotic case for Scotland in Britain”, and urged people to join it.

The group will make the case for a "reformed" UK, Mr Brown said, and target the 40 percent of Scots who he believes are not strongly committed to either the Union or independence.

Mr Brown’s comments come in the wake of Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon leading the SNP to a landslide fourth term in office on a manifesto pledge to hold another independence referendum.

It is not a surprise the former Prime Minister would intervene in the debate.

Mr Brown played a prominent role in the lead-up to, and the aftermath of, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, campaigning for Scotland to stay in the UK.

Seven years ago, in a surprisingly personal address to Labour activists in Glasgow, Mr Brown used his NHS connections to dismiss the idea that Scotland's health service was slipping towards privatisation under Westminster rule.

He said former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond's party was not "telling people the truth" on the subject and urged Scots across the country to "nail the SNP lie" on the NHS.

The speech, branded by some commentators as the most emotional of the referendum campaign, was delivered at the Labour Party's Glaswegian HQ.

During his time in the media spotlight, Mr Brown rarely discussed his children, choosing instead to keep his private life away from the cameras.

In 2002, while Mr Brown was Chancellor, his baby daughter Jennifer Jane died in an Edinburgh hospital.

She was just 10 days old.

Discussing a new timetable for extra powers that would have been delivered to the Scottish Parliament after a No vote, the former Labour leader explained why the NHS would have been protected if Scotland stayed in the UK.

JUST IN: Nicola Sturgeon's independence dream shattered as bid deemed 'risky'

The former Prime Minister said: "I love Scotland. I love the National Health Service. I was born into the National Health Service. I grew up in the National Health Service.

"When I lost the sight of my eye and faced the prospect of going blind, my sight was saved by the National Health Service.

"When my daughter died, it was a result of not being able to do anything to save her life and my respect for the National Health Service grew as a result of the experience that Sarah and I had.

"Do you think that I or anybody else who cares about the National Health Service would stand by and do nothing if we thought the National Health Service was going to be privatised in Scotland and its funds were going to be cut? Would we stand back and do nothing without a fight? Of course not!"

Mr Brown said Labour had "built", "developed" and "funded" the NHS, unlike the SNP, and added that only Mr Salmond's party could have privatised Scotland's health service.

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He said independence would mean Scotland walking away from the £1billion health funding boost it enjoyed thanks to Westminster's system of funnelling money to where it is most needed.

The intervention came with many on the pro-UK side furious at the SNP's "scaremongering" on the NHS, especially the suggestion Scotland's health service was under threat from Westminster privatisation.

Mr Brown also defended the new devolution timetable, saying it had cross-party support and would reassure Scots that "change" was coming after a No vote.

Mr Salmond had dismissed the new timetable as a "panicked" move by Westminster and pledged to protect the NHS's "free at the point of use" principle in an independent Scotland's written constitution.

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2021-05-14 19:05:00Z
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COVID-19: Glasgow and Moray to remain in Level 3 amid new cases linked to Indian variant - Sky News

Glasgow and Moray will remain in Level 3 amid concerns a new surge of COVID-19 cases in Scotland is being driven by the Indian variant of the virus.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Friday that these areas will remain at Level 3 of Scotland's five-tier system of coronavirus restrictions for a week until a further decision is made at the end of next week.

She said the situation in Glasgow is causing even more concern than Moray, with initial research suggesting the outbreak could be being driven by the Indian variant.

It comes as the rest of Scotland drops to Level 2 restrictions on Monday, meaning cinemas, theatres, concert halls and stadiums can open across the rest of the nation - but not in Glasgow and Moray.

Live COVID updates from the UK and around the world

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Some things you can do at Level 3:

• Meet in groups of up to six from two households in an indoor public place such as a café, pub or restaurant

• You can meet in groups of up to six from six households outdoors, in a private garden or a public place like a park or an outdoor area of a café

• Under 12s do not count towards the total number of people or households meeting outside but do count towards the household numbers indoors

• You can travel anywhere in Scotland and can stay in holiday accommodation - but you should not stay in someone else's house

At Level 2, you can meet socially in groups of up to:

• Six people from three households in your home or theirs - and can stay overnight

• Six people from three households in an indoor public place like a café, pub or restaurant

• Eight people from eight households outdoors

Glasgow has now overtaken Moray as Scotland's coronavirus hotspot, with an epidemiologist warning the country is seeing a "loss of control" of the pandemic in some areas.

Figures published on Friday showed there were 80.4 cases per 100,000 people in Glasgow in the seven days to 11 May - surpassing Moray where there were 68.9.

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Tuesday: Sturgeon announces lockdown easing in Scotland

Moray experienced a rise in cases that started in April and it had the highest rate in Scotland in recent days.

The spike in infections in Glasgow could include the Indian B.1.617.2 variant, public health experts claim.

Epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani warned it would be early to lift restrictions.

She also called for action to prevent the situation from worsening following concerns about the spread of one of the new Indian variants of the virus north of the border.

Dr Gurdasani told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme: "The idea is certainly premature, in fact the government should be considering the opposite.

"In Scotland as a whole we've actually seen the number of new cases double in the last week, and while the cases are so low it's hard to see exponential rises.

"This is what early exponential rises look like and we're seeing loss of control of the pandemic in many parts of Scotland, and the situation is likely much wider and other places will follow unless action is taken to actually prevent this and pre-empt this now."

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In the past 24 hours, Scotland has recorded two COVID deaths and a further 215 cases, according to the latest Scottish government figures.

It brings the total number of deaths in the country since the beginning of the pandemic to 7,664.

A total of 228,908 have tested positive for the virus and the daily test positivity rate is 1.3%, up from 1.2% the previous day.

Of the 215 new cases, 110 were in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area.

This was followed by 37 in NHS Lothian, 21 in NHS Lanarkshire, 16 in NHS Fife and 15 in NHS Grampian - which covers Moray.

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2021-05-14 17:15:00Z
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