Government scientist says there could be arguments for speeding up lifting restrictions
Dr Mike Tildesley, who sits on the government's Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, has said England should continue to monitor its COVID situation as restrictions ease but he believes it is doing better than expected.
"I was really pleasantly surprised that when schools open we have managed to keep things in check, so I think... if these numbers keep going down over the next few weeks there certainly is an argument to say 'well actually we're doing really well with the roadmap, it could be sped up'," he told LBC.
"I would say I would want to be a little bit cautious over the next few weeks as we get beyond this April relaxation to monitor that just to be really sure that cases are continuing to go down."
Earlier, SAGE scientists warned the later stages of lockdown easing beginning in May could see a surge in hospital admissions.
Dr Tildesley added: "Now I will say that if things keep going down at the rate that they are then there certainly is an argument for speeding up the process.
"But we do know that the later relaxations, particularly the May one when people can stay in each other's homes for the first time for a long period of time, we might expect that could cause a... quite significant rise in mixing and potentially a rise in infections which is why this monitoring is really needed."
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When Boris Johnson unveiled his four-month roadmap out of lockdown in February, he said that day-by-day the vaccination programme was "creating a shield around the entire population, which means we are now travelling on a one-way road to freedom".
Self-catering holidays will be allowed and people will again be able to travel around the country.
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PM is asked: 'How long are we going to live like this?'
But as we tentatively emerge from this third lockdown after living under the cloud of the COVID pandemic for over a year, what "freedom" really looks like come 21 June when the lockdown lifting is due to complete is a moving target.
The dates of the roadmap are set but the contours of our destination are not.
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When it comes to international travel, social distancing, COVID certification, mass testing and mass gatherings, the prime minister has commissioned plenty of reviews but he's not ready to give us any answers.
His reticence is in part political.
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Dozens of his backbenchers are loudly mobilising a cross-party group to try to thwart his attempts to introduce COVID certifications.
And just as he doesn't want to show any ankle on the prospect of accelerating the roadmap, neither does he want to fan any political flames among colleagues on COVID certification at this stage of his unlocking plan.
But his reticence is also down to the tensions he is having to manage behind the scenes.
One senior figure tells me that there is a very live debate between Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick Vallance and Boris Johnson on how to keep transmission low after we unlock.
His scientific advisers are minded to keep social distancing for another year, while the prime minister is not.
"He wants to get life back to normal," says one senior government figure. "So he's prepared to go for the certification and do it for livelihoods.
"If you allow pubs and restaurants to re-open at 40% capacity, they'll go bust anyway, so part of the debate behind closed doors is whether to drop social distancing in return for passports. That's part of the battle now."
Papers released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on Monday stated that vaccines "aren't enough" to squash the coronavirus once and for all.
The modelling shows an increase in cases, hospitalisations and deaths as the unlocking continues and transmission from social mixing picks up pace.
For now, the prime minister faces deep political opposition to COVID certification, but might that change further along the route map when we start to reopen in earnest and the number of cases once again begin to spike?
When I asked him on Monday whether freedom beyond 21 June involves a COVID certificate and weekly testing, he told me I was "slightly putting the horse before the cart. We need to make sure we get stage two right".
"If things continue to go well, I do think that, for many people in many ways, life will begin to get back to at least some semblance of normality."
What that "semblance of normality" looks like, the prime minister didn't want to expound upon on Monday.
But what's clear enough is that his "irreversible roadmap out of lockdown" will almost certainly come with a number of strings attached. Vaccinations alone won't set us free.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed a new traffic light system for international travel - but he has warned people it is still too soon for the government to commit to allowing holidays abroad.
On the government's roadmap back to normality, foreign trips are banned until 17 May at the earliest.
But at his latest Downing Street coronavirus briefing, Mr Johnson said: "Obviously we are hopeful that we can get going from 17 May, we are hopeful..." but he went on to warn people to "be realistic" and said: "We're not there yet."
Here is what he revealed and what he confirmed on the traffic light system and how it will work...
Image:Could summer holidays be back on the cards?
When will I be able to go on holiday?
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The update said: "Given the state of the pandemic abroad, and the progress of vaccination programmes in other countries, we are not yet in a position to confirm that non-essential international travel can resume from [17 May]".
The prime minister said that more information will be given later this week.
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When can I book a holiday?
The government is advising people not to book holidays yet.
It said: "For the moment, the government advises people not to book summer holidays abroad until the picture is clearer."
In his briefing, Boris Johnson said: "We're hopeful but I do not wish to give hostages to fortune... we don't want to see the virus being reimported into this country."
And he added: "We're not there yet... as soon as we have solid information... we'll let you know where we are."
How will the traffic light system work?
The traffic light system will add green and amber categories of countries, to the current red list.
Countries on the green list will not require isolation in the UK upon return, but a COVID test will need to be taken before departure and after returning.
According to the government, the green list will include "countries where we judge the risk to be lower, based for instance on vaccinations, infection rates, the prevalence of variants of concern, and their genomic sequencing capacity (or access to genomic sequencing)".
It is not clear what the conditions will be for a country to be placed on the amber list.
Image:The Global Travel Taskforce will report later this week
What countries can we travel to?
So far, no details of which countries will be on the green list have yet been provided.
The government report said: "It is too early to say which countries will be on the green list when non-essential international travel resumes.
"These decisions will be driven by the data and evidence nearer the time, which we cannot predict now. In advance of the resumption of non-essential international travel, we will set out our initial assessment of which countries will fall into which category.
"Thereafter countries will move between the red, amber and green lists depending on the data."
However, there is a red list of countries from which non-UK and Irish citizens and residents are banned.
UK and Irish citizens and residents must quarantine for 10 days at a government approved hotel once they return from these nations.
Countries on the red list:
Angola
Argentina
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Burundi
Cape Verde
Chile
Colombia
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Ecuador
Eswatini
Ethiopia
French Guiana
Guyana
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Oman
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Qatar
Rwanda
Seychelles
Somalia
South Africa
Suriname
Tanzania
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Uruguay
Venezuela
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Countries which will be added to the red list at 4am this Friday 9 April:
Bangladesh
Kenya
Pakistan
Philippines
What have other countries said?
Malta, which has a high vaccination rate, has announced it will welcome UK tourists from 1 June.
To enter, people will need to show proof of a full course of vaccination administered at least 10 days before touchdown.
Malta follows on from a number of other popular tourist destinations that have announced plans to reopen their borders in recent weeks.
Turkey expects to welcome UK holidaymakers without requiring proof of a vaccine or negative test, as soon as foreign leisure travel is permitted, although a review is due on 15 April.
Greece will require international tourists to have been vaccinated, had a recent negative COVID-19 test or have coronavirus antibodies.
The government of Cyprus has said they would welcome tourists from the UK starting 1 April, provided they supply a negative PCR test. From 1 May, this could be replaced with proof of vaccination.
However, travel for holidays remains prohibited by the UK government, with fines in place for those caught breaking restrictions.
Image:Countries like Turkey have said they want to welcome British tourists back
What will I need to do to travel?
To travel to green list countries, a negative coronavirus test will be required before leaving the UK and also upon return.
However, vaccination may soon be another route to holidays - as well as agreements with other nations.
The government says an NHS-backed 'certification' system will be used to show if someone has been fully inoculated, has antibodies, or has had a negative test.
The government report said: "The vaccination programme could offer a more stable route out of the need for such restrictions - provided we see sufficient efficacy against any variants of concern - which means the role of COVID-status certification is crucial to this work.
"The current intention is that, when non-essential international travel does resume, the NHS solution will facilitate international travel where certification is required, and we will look to establish arrangements with other countries and international organisations to establish mutual recognition of certificates."
When will we find out more about going on holiday?
The Global Travel Taskforce, which was set up by the government last year, is due to publish a report setting out more details on the traffic light system later this week.
It will report to the prime minister on Monday 12 April.
A news conference is usually given the week before the next set of restrictions are eased, so there could be more detail from 10 May.
During the Downing Street briefing on 5 April, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that, after the Global Travel Taskforce reports its findings, the government will "be setting out well before 17 May what we think is reasonable".
How has the travel industry responded?
Heathrow Airport chief executive John Holland-Kaye said it is "disappointing that the opportunity has been missed to provide more certainty to reunite families separated by travel restrictions, to give sunseekers the confidence to book ahead for their summer getaway and to help businesses across the country that have had their exporting ambitions placed on hold by the pandemic".
He added: "Now that a safe, scientifically-backed process has been agreed upon, a clearer timeline for the return to international travel is needed."
Clive Wratten, chief executive of trade body the Business Travel Association, called Mr Johnson's briefing "beyond disappointing".
He said that the pathway to international travel and trade has "once again been kicked down the road" and added: "We ask the Government to be confident in its road map as the Global Travel Taskforce reports on 12th April. This is our last resort."
And Paul Charles, chief executive of travel consultancy The PC Agency, said the industry "needs more certainty".
He went on: "Government cannot keep kicking the can down the road as hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk.
Police searching for missing student Richard Okorogheye, 19, have found the body of a man in Epping Forest, Essex.
The Metropolitan Police said it had been told by counterparts in Essex that the body was discovered in a pond in the woodland.
Inquiries are under way to identify the body.
Scotland Yard added that Mr Okorogheye's family have been informed and are being supported by specially trained officers.
The Oxford Brookes student, who has sickle cell disease, had not been seen by his family since 22 March, when he left their home in the Ladbroke Grove area of west London.
He was last seen on CCTV in Loughton, Essex, in the early hours of the following day, walking towards Epping Forest.
Officers and police dogs were searching the forest for a fifth day when they made the discovery on Monday afternoon.
Police searching for missing student Richard Okorogheye, who went missing two weeks ago, say they have found a body in a pond in Epping Forest, Essex.
The 19-year-old left his family home in Ladbroke Grove, west London, on the evening of Monday 22 March, boarded a bus, and later took a 20-mile taxi ride from the W2 area of the capital to a residential street in Loughton, Essex.
Specialist police search officers and dog units have been searching Epping Forest after CCTV captured him walking towards the forest on the night he disappeared.
Police say the body has not yet been identified but that Mr Okorogheye's family have been told of the development and they are being supported by specialist officers.
The Oxford Brookes student, who had sickle cell disease, had been struggling to cope with shielding for the past year and it is believed he did not take his daily medication with him.
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Mr Okorogheye's mother, Evidence Joel, told Sky News on Thursday her son had never mentioned Loughton and she thought he went there to "meet somebody".
More from Richard Okorogheye
"Someone was waiting for Richard," she said.
Image:Police have carried out extensive searches in Epping Forest, Essex
Ms Joel said she "most definitely" thought he had met somebody online as she had heard him laughing while playing his PlayStation 5 and being "very happy" while talking to someone.
She said she did not know anything specific about the person.
