How the Oxford University algorithm decides who should be shielding
By Rowland Manthorpe, technology correspondent
A new algorithm has been put together to try and calculate people who are at higher risk from COVID-19 due to multiple factors so should shield, but how does it work?
Very simply, this algorithm works by using the details of your medical records to assess how likely you are to catch coronavirus and die.
It sifts through this information, then gives you a score out of 100: A high score means you're more likely to get COVID-19 and die, a low score means that's less likely to happen.
The people with the highest scores are added to the shielding list and prioritised for vaccination.
Whether you get one of the higher scores depends on your personal characteristics such as your age, gender or ethnicity, as well as your weight compared to your height.
Older people are known to be more vulnerable to COVID-19. Men are more vulnerable, so they will score higher. The same applies to ethnicity.
Other factors which will increase your score include whether you smoke, whether you are homeless, or, crucially, whether you are taking certain kinds of medication.
Some cancer patients, for instance, weren't included on the first shielding list. This algorithm can run through the NHS database, pick out those people, then flag them up for vaccination.
And poverty is known to be linked to more severe outcomes from COVID-19 and this algorithm includes a measure of deprivation, based on your postcode.
Here are five things you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic this Wednesday morning. We'll have another update for you this evening.
1. Put children at heart of levelling-up, PM told
The outgoing children's commissioner for England has called on the government to put vulnerable young people "centre stage" of plans to "level-up" the country. Anne Longfield, in her last speech after six years in the job, will say that an entire generation risks being forever defined by the coronavirus pandemic and will call for a new "Covid Covenant" for education and support in every community. For its part, the government says the most vulnerable children in England can still go to school and it has also worked to provide laptops and data packages for home-schooling.
PA Media
2. Hospital backlog 'may double by April'
Research by the think tank Reform suggests hospital waiting lists in England could more than double and hit 10 million by April. While praising NHS staff for their work during the pandemic, Reform said more needs to be done to deal with the growing backlog in hospitals. The NHS Confederation, which represents hospital bosses, has questioned Reform's predictions, saying the main issues were under-funding and the health service operating near capacity.
Getty Images
3. New trial tests Covid vaccine on children
Work has begun to assess the effectiveness of the coronavirus jab developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca on children. Around 300 volunteers aged between six and 17 are taking part in the trial, with 240 receiving the Covid vaccine and the rest getting a meningitis jab. While children can catch and spread coronavirus they are unlikely to become very sick with it. But the Oxford researchers say this trial is needed to find out whether some young people might benefit from being vaccinated.
4. How will we know if the vaccine is working?
BBC News analysis of data from England suggests the vaccine rollout in England is starting to push down the number of deaths from coronavirus. According to the data currently available, deaths of over-80s fell by 53% between 28 January and 11 February, compared with 44% for under-80s. The number of Covid cases is also down, but this statistic is not a reliable indicator of whether the vaccines are working because the jabs should prevent serious infections. It is expected the government will release more details next week as part of its plans to ease the lockdown in England.
5. Why you might be feeling a bit numb
With more than 118,000 people in the UK now having died with coronavirus, many of us may end up feeling a bit numb. This is not unusual, psychologist Dr Meg Arroll tells BBC Newsbeat, and is a form of self-preservation. She says that some people may be suffering from "compassion fatigue". If you're feeling out of touch with your emotions, there are things you can do to help, including remembering it is OK not to be OK at the moment, looking after your physical health and taking time out for yourself.
In some cases, your question will be published, displaying your name, age and location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and privacy policy.
Use this form to ask your question:
If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or send them via email to YourQuestions@bbc.co.uk. Please include your name, age and location with any question you send in.
Waiting lists for hospital treatment could more than double by April and hit 10 million in England, the Reform think tank is warning.
A worst-case scenario could see delays continue as a new wave of referrals are made, Reform said.
Treatment referrals by GPs were six million lower in 2020 than the year before, suggesting a mounting backlog.
It comes as health leaders warn the NHS is likely to be "at full stretch" for at least another six weeks.
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts in England, has written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to say case numbers are "still far too high" to end virus curbs.
He said: "The evidence on Covid-19 cases, NHS capacity, progress with vaccinations and readiness to combat Covid-19 variants all show that it is much too early to start lifting restrictions."
Setting out the conditions they believe are needed to allow current restrictions to relax, trust leaders outlined four tests that could be applied.
Among the tests are: a "significant" drop in case numbers; a return to normal NHS capacity; solid progress with vaccinations; and a "robust and effective" strategy to identify new virus variants.
Mr Johnson is due to outline a roadmap for easing the current national lockdown in England on Monday.
Meanwhile, the head of the UK's vaccine taskforce, Clive Dix, told Sky News all adults could be fully vaccinated by August "or maybe sooner if we need to".
'Mammoth task'
Reform - a centre-right think tank that focuses on public services - praised the work of frontline NHS staff, but said more now needed to be done to tackle the growing backlog in care.
Community diagnostic centres for cancer, cardiac and other conditions should be set up to restart screening programmes halted by the pandemic, coupled with a renewed focus on prioritising those most urgently in need of care currently on waiting lists, it said. And for routine treatments, it said more use should be made of the private sector.
Reform's Eleonora Harwich said: "We must never have the equivalent of a 'National Covid Service' again.
"This is a system problem and in no way detracts from the heroic effort of NHS staff battling Covid-19.
"However, the cessation of so much non-Covid care means patients are facing more serious health conditions or disabilities, and some will die prematurely."
Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, which represents hospital bosses, accepted the NHS faced a "mammoth task" to tackle the backlog - although she questioned the waiting list prediction of 10 million people by April.
She said the real problem was that the NHS was under-funded and had been operating "at the top of its capacity for far too long".
Responding to accusations that the NHS has become a Covid-only service, Ms McCay pointed out cancer services were now operating at pre-pandemic levels.
Prof Neil Mortensen, of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said tackling the backlog would require both the use of the private sector, and extra investment in the NHS.
A further 10,625 new coronavirus cases were reported on Tuesday, alongside another 799 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.
Over 16 million people have now received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine across the UK.
Around 1.7 million more people will be added to the shielding list in England, after being found to be at potential serious risk from COVID-19.
They have been identified by a new algorithm that looks at multiple factors, and will be sent a letter from the NHS in the coming days.
Some will have already been offered a coronavirus jab but the around 800,000 who have not will be bumped up the vaccine priority list.
Very simply, this algorithm works by using the details of your medical records to assess how likely you are to catch COVID-19 and die.
It sifts through this information, then gives you a score out of 100: a high score means you're more likely to get COVID-19 and die, a low score means you're less likely.
Whether you get one of the higher scores depends on your personal characteristics such as your age, gender or ethnicity, as well as your weight compared to your height.
More from Covid-19
Older people are known to be more vulnerable to COVID-19. Men are more vulnerable, so they will score higher. The same applies to ethnicity.
Other factors which will increase your score include whether you smoke, whether you are homeless, or, crucially, whether you are taking certain kinds of medication.
Some cancer patients, for instance, weren't included on the first shielding list. This algorithm can run through the NHS database, pick out those people, then flag them up for vaccination.
Poverty is known to be linked to more severe outcomes from COVID-19 and this algorithm includes a measure of deprivation, based on your postcode.
It's an algorithm too, so it works in the same way.
It takes a whole series of measures, including unemployment, level of car and home ownership, and level of household overcrowding, then uses that to calculate poverty in your area.
It gives you a score for this, which feeds into your final score when it is calculated at the end.
You might be wondering exactly how these scores are calculated. That is a much bigger question: suffice to say it involves some extremely difficult maths.
Fortunately, all the details of the model will be published so people who understand the maths can go through it. If that's not you, you can get a sense of it yourself by using this online calculator which uses the algorithm to estimate your score based on the information you give it.
There are of course concerns, but before we get into those, it's worth pausing just to reflect on how mind-bogglingly complicated this is.
The algorithm isn't just trying to predict who will die from COVID-19 if they catch it, something we now unfortunately know all too much about. It is trying to predict who will catch COVID-19 in the first place.
Unless the University of Oxford academics who developed it invented time travel at the same time, the results will inevitably be imprecise, particularly because it does not include some factors which clearly put you at greater risk of catching COVID-19, such as occupation.
As a result, it is quite likely that some people who are actually low risk will end up jumping the queue.
After the chaos caused by the attempt to mark last year's A-levels with an algorithm, the idea of an imprecise algorithm picking people to be vaccinated might send shivers down your spine.
But if we just focus on its downsides we might miss its upsides: its ability to run through more data than a human ever could.
Algorithms aren't inherently bad. They're just tools - and, like any tools, they can be used poorly or well. This one could help the NHS pick vulnerable individual out of the population, but it is as only as good as the data that goes into it.
Perhaps the biggest challenge will not be running it, but explaining it to patients who get (or don't get) an invitation as a result.
No10 was today urged to expand the rollout of Covid vaccines to include all over-50s as soon as there are enough supplies to avoid bottlenecks as the country moves through the priority list.
NHS England's vaccine drive moved into its second phase yesterday, with over-65s and at-risk adults now being invited to get jabs.
But people under that age threshold – including British reality show host Nadia Essex, 39, who has no health issues, and 56-year-old US singer, Courtney Love – have already been offered vaccines in some parts of the nation.
NHS bosses say local health teams can make their own way down the list of nine priority groups, so long as they have attempted to reach everyone in a group before moving on.
But areas that are further ahead in vaccinating their elderly populations are more quickly making their way through younger people, while willing people of the same age are left waiting longer in areas that are struggling more to reach older residents.
Critics suggest that opening up the scheme so anyone in a priority group can get a vaccine as soon as they want one could avoid low uptake in certain groups holding back others.
Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at the University of Reading, said 'it would make sense' to roll out jabs to people in their 50s and 60s as soon as supplies allow.
Think-tanks said officials needed to be more ambitious about the speed and not get stuck on particulars, saying it was 'false economy' to slow down some groups or clinics to help others catch up.
There are signs the UK's coronavirus vaccine roll-out may be slowing after fewer than 280,000 doses were administered yesterday
Ministers have pledged to dish out jabs to all 32million Britons in the top nine groups by April.
But they will have to start dishing out second doses within weeks, making it essential to keep up the pace and get as many first jabs done before that begins to eat into supplies.
At the current pace of 434,301 people per day, it will take until March 26 to give a first dose to 32million people.
But the speed has slowed over the past fortnight amid claims that the 'rigid' priority list was hampering delivery.
NHS England boss Sir Simon Stevens yesterday vowed to double the number of jabs being given in order for the Government to hit that target. It could see up to 1million doses dished out each day.
He cautioned that the national vaccination campaign consisted of 'two sprints and a marathon, (and) we’ve just come to the end of the first sprint'.
Jo Whiley, 55, blasts jab rollout after she was offered one BEFORE her disabled sister who lives in a care home
Radio presenter Jo Whiley has blasted being offered a Covid vaccine before her disabled sister who lives in a care home - and who has now reportedly tested positive for coronavirus.
The 'fit and healthy' BBC Radio Two host, 55, says it is 'mind boggling' that she has been offered a jab before younger sister Frances - who has diabetes and complex learning difficulties.
And she she would give up her vaccine 'in a heartbeat' in favour of it going to those in a situation such as her younger sister.
Frances, 53, suffers from a rare genetic syndrome called Cri du Chat - a chromosomal condition that results in delayed development. She was moved into care in Northamptonshire in 2015 after her 'challenging behaviour' resulted in her needing specialist care.
Speaking to Radio 4's Today Programme, which has since reported that Frances has tested positive for Covid, Ms Whiley said: 'We've done everything we can to try and facilitate the vaccine getting to people who need it most.
'She (Frances) is in group six but she also has diabetes quite bad diabetes, which should put her in group four.
'I would have thought she should have received it, but she hasn't. I just want to speak up for people like Frances, who have been overlooked, because this happens so often with people with learning difficulties, who haven't got a voice.
'I can't tell you how frustrating it is and how horrendous it is. It's the stuff of nightmares.
'Then ironically I got a message to say I was due to have my vaccine, before my sister, who has learning disabilities and underlying health conditions, go figure.'
Ms Whiley, who thinks she has been offered the vaccine due to her status as a carer for her sister, added: 'My mind is boggling, it really is, and I would give up my vaccine in a heartbeat for my sister and any of the residents in that care home.'
Ms Whiley is the latest of a string of celebrities to be offered the vaccine ahead of more vulnerable or elderly Brits, amid concerns the roll out has become a 'postcode lottery'.
US singer Courtney Love yesterday got the injection today at an NHS clinic in Chelsea, West London. The 56-year-old — whose representatives say has an underlying health condition that makes her eligible — left Los Angeles and relocated to London in the autumn of 2019.
Nigella Lawson claimed her head was 'in a spin' at being offered the Covid vaccine on Sunday. The 61-year-old TV chef revealed she had been sent a text message on Valentine's Day inviting her to book an appointment.
Meanwhile, Ruth Langsford, the 60-year-old This Morning presenter, said she was 'so grateful' to receive her first vaccine on Saturday, thanking everyone involved in an Instagram update.
And Gardeners' World presenter Monty Don, 65, also praised the NHS after getting his first dose on the same day. It's not clear whether any of the TV personalities have underlying conditions that would bump them up the queue.
British reality show host Nadia Essex, 39, who has no health issues, is thought to be the youngest celebrity to be offered a vaccine. She revealed she was 'going for it' last Thursday after asking her fans for their opinion.
Advertisement
Some over-60s have already began being given the jab in areas across the country, with areas of Manchester and London handing out doses to the next age bracket.
Wales began inviting over-50s, while Northern Ireland started offering appointments to over-65s in January.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday said 53 per cent of 65-69 year-olds have already received their first dose of vaccine.
The Adam Smith Institute think-tank urged areas of the country already ahead of the curve to open up the programme to over-50s now.
A spokesperson told MailOnline: 'Each person jabbed represents a life that won't be lost to this terrible disease.
'We should be trying to ensure jabs reach as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
'If some areas have steamed ahead they should to continue apace, opening up to the over-50s and other cohorts.
'Areas that fall behind should be looking at best practice at home and abroad to increase the vaccination rate, including ringing down lists, using online bookings and social media to reach out if spare doses are available towards the end of the day, targeted outreach to hard to reach demographics.
'Slowing down some parts in the hope others speed up is a false economy and it's one with a high cost in terms of lives potentially saved and taxpayers borrowing to keep the companies going while the economy is closed.'
And experts have urged No10 to be more ambitious in the roll-out's second phase in order to open up the economy.
Dr Simon Clarke said: 'I would say it's vital that, as long as the bottlenecks in other areas are not due to lack of vaccine doses, it would make sense to roll out vaccination to over-50s.
'There is no sense in not vaccinating people in one area just because there at logistical problems in others. But it’s vital that people who may be higher up the priority list because of need are not denied a vaccine because it’s been sent elsewhere.'
The Institute of Economic Affairs think tank told MailOnline: 'It appears the Government is being insufficiently ambitious in terms of the next phase of vaccine rollout. It appears the aim of offering a first dose to all over-50s by May is relatively modest.
'The pandemic is costing £6billion per week by some estimates, GDP fell by 9.9 per cent in 2020, and the public finances in a dire state.
'The unemployment rate is currently 5 per cent – but with the furlough scheme still in place we don't know the full impact of Covid on our labour market.
'Further, the third lockdown and prolonged uncertainty over the easing of restrictions may deliver a coup de grace to those businesses which were hanging on by a thread after the first two shutdowns.
'The best strategy is to get foot to the floor on our vaccination programme – and we should begin to question, once the vulnerable groups have been received their jab, when might be the right time to gear up the private sector.'
It comes after it was claimed today that the third phase of the rollout after over-50s have been vaccinated is likely to target people by their ethnicity as well as their age.
Previously, teachers and other key workers were expected to be next in line behind over-50s.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation met today and is expected to recommend continuing the age-based approach because prioritising people based on jobs would be 'too complicated'.
The JCVI will also urge ministers to prioritise some ethnic minority groups, who are at a disproportionate risk of dying from Covid.
Members are said to be particularly concerned about mortality rates among South Asians, who studies have shown are twice as likely to succumb to the virus as their white peers.
A source told the Daily Telegraph: 'One of the main factors behind the success of the rollout so far has been the simplicity of the prioritisation rules because it has been based largely on age.
'Once you make things more complicated, you run the risk of slowing things down.
'You create more telephone calls for surgeries to make, while people are bashing on the door demanding a vaccine because they think it's their turn.'
Official figures suggest that more than 2million Brits in the top four priority groups have still yet to be vaccinated, despite ministers saying they have all been offered a jab.
NHS England statistics, which go up to February 7, show Somerset had given at least one dose to 93.4 per cent of all of its over-70s
Nicola Sturgeon has revealed a lockdown update for Scotland, with some pupils to return to school from next week
Boris Johnson will unveil his roadmap to unlock England next week
The Scottish First Minister confirmed some children will return to the classroom next week - heaping pressure on Mr Johnson to confirm schools in England will reopen on March 8.
Pre-school kids and a limited number of older kids will be able to return to the classroom from Monday in Scotland - two weeks earlier than in England.
And she admitted lockdown could be extended, with the SNP leader's full plans for exiting lockdown set to be published next Tuesday, a day after the PM's roadmap to freedom from Covid restrictions.
BACK TO SCHOOL
Ms Sturgeon revealed today that classrooms will be reopened for pre-school kids and some older pupils from next Monday in Scotland.
Children in Primary 1 to Primary 3 and those under school age in early learning and childcare, as well as those in the senior phase of secondary school will be allowed back to school, she said.
No more pupils can return after March 15 so phase one of Scotland's school reopening can be assessed.
Schools in England won't open until at least March 8Credit: Alamy
Schools in England won't be returning until at least March 8, Mr Johnson has said, but today's announcement has piled pressure on him to confirm that date.
But it's not yet clear whether it will be all pupils due to return on March 8 or if it will be a staggered return.
It may be that some kids in key exam years will go back first, followed by others at a later date.
LOCKDOWN COULD BE EXTENDED
Ms Sturgeon warned today that lockdown could be extended forweeks to come.
The First Minister said that lockdown rules, including the stay at home message, would continue until the beginning of March - and possibly even beyond that.
She said: "We need to balance all the different factors and plan a gradual, phased return to as much normality as possible.
"That is what the government is now very much focused on doing."
Lockdown could be extended, Ms Sturgeon warned todayCredit: Alamy
At the moment the UK Government have not said exactly what we will expect next week.
But Boris said yesterday he will include a range of dates for possible openings.
The PM hasn't yet made any firm decisions, but has said he is looking again at the tier system.
He's hinted he may lift restrictions across the whole country at once.
This would mean the tiers system may be scrapped regionally, and instead everyone have the same tier across England.
DON'T BOOK EASTER HOLIDAYS
The Scottish Government urged people not to book Easter holidays as hotels won't be open by then.
Staycations might be on the cards by the summer, but overseas trips probably won't be.
But Ms Sturgeon said she was unable to confirm yet if that will be possible.
She said: "We are likely to advise against booking Easter holidays, either overseas or within Scotland, as it is highly unlikely that we will have been able to fully open hotels or self-catering accommodation by then.
Ministers are reportedly assessing if self-catered breaks in the UK can start from EasterCredit: Alamy
"However, for the summer, while it is still highly unlikely that overseas holidays will be possible or advisable, staycations might be - but this will depend on the data nearer the time."
It's not known what will be announced next week by Mr Johnson, with government officials cautious so far.
But ministers are reportedly assessing if self-catered breaks in the UK for people from one household may be possible by the Easter holidays, a government source told The Times.
The source said: "There’s an active discussion about how soon we can do it and we’ll be guided by the data.”
SUMMER STAYCATION BOOST
Ms Sturgeon said today it was "highly unlikely" summer trips abroad would be allowed.
But she suggested that summer staycations may be possible, laying open the possibility that Mr Johnson may follow suit next week.
The First Minister "However, for the summer, while it is still highly unlikely that overseas holidays will be possible or advisable, staycations might be - but this will depend on the data nearer the time.
At the start of February, Mr Johnson said he was "optimistic" Britain can have a summer holiday this year - but ONLY if the vaccine rollout continues to go well.
When asked last week if Brits could book a summer staycation "with confidence" he replied: "I don't want to say much more than I've already said about that.
"I'm hopeful, but it depends on a couple of things: we've got to keep the pandemic coming down in the way that it is at the moment, we've got to continue the roll-out of the vaccination programme in the successful way that we're currently seeing.
"But we've got to take one thing at a time and just be cautious."
But Transport Secretary Grant Schapps cautioned last week: "People shouldn’t be booking holidays right now, not domestically or internationally.”
Staycations breaks in the UK could be on for the summer, but Brits have been warned not to book yetCredit: Alamy
