Babak Belurs

Minggu, 14 Februari 2021

Five unanswered questions about the vaccine rollout - BBC News

The government says that 15m people have been vaccinated across the UK.

This means just over one in four adults have had their first dose of vaccine but there are some unanswered questions about the rollout.

1. What is the uptake in minority communities?

It appears that uptake in ethnic minority groups is lower than it is for the population as a whole.

This is despite some minority groups, including Bangladeshi and Pakistanis, facing higher coronavirus death rates than white people.

A survey, carried out by the University of Oxford and the London School for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggested that black people over 80 were almost half as likely to have had the vaccine than white people over 80.

The gaps are smaller for people in their seventies.

This OpenSafely analysis draws data from about 40% of GP practices so, while thorough, it does not capture most people who are vaccinated.

There are official statistics of vaccine uptake which show how many people in each ethnic group have had the vaccine, but they are not broken down by age or location.

Normally we would look at how these compare to the overall size of the population, but we don't have much of an idea of how many people are in each ethnic group.

This is because the last census was done ten years ago.

Public Health England has said that supplying transparent data by ethnicity will "will help to build confidence in the fairness of offer - as will updates on the actions being taken to address inequalities in access or uptake that are identified."

2. How many staff in care homes have been vaccinated?

Care home staff were one of the first groups to be prioritised.

But we do not know how many of England's 1.2m care staff have been vaccinated, because the government does not release these figures.

We also don't have the numbers for the 2m NHS staff in England, another priority group.

In Scotland it is estimated that 91% of staff in care homes for the elderly are vaccinated and 83% in Wales.

Uptake of vaccine among care staff graphic

The National Care Forum, a body representing not-for-profit care homes across the UK, found that half of the homes for the elderly which were surveyed had had less than 70% of their staff vaccinated.

The survey, which reached around 1,500 care services, showed that the reason for not having the vaccine was split evenly between vaccine hesitancy, lack of access, waiting for an appointment and health reasons.

3. How do we know everyone was "offered" a vaccine?

The government said that the following groups should have been "offered" a vaccine by February 15:

Everyone aged 70 and over
Care home residents
Care and health staff
Clinically extremely vulnerable

Boris Johnson said this target has been hit in England, whilst the Welsh government announced it too had "hit this milestone".

An "offer" means you've received an invitation for a vaccine, normally through a phone call, text or letter.

Currently, we have no data on how many people have actively turned down the offer of a vaccine or have ignored their invitation for a jab.

We also don't know how many of the 15m people vaccinated are outside of these priority groups.

These numbers would give a clearer picture on whether the target has been hit, and highlight where vaccine hesitancy is high.

Chart showing those 80 and over from deprived areas are less likely to have received a vaccine

For example, data from OpenSafely shows vaccination uptake is higher in wealthier areas, but it doesn't highlight whether the apparent lower uptake in more deprived areas is down to people refusing a jab, or simply not communicating with the NHS.

The UK Statistics Authority, which regulates the government's use of statistics, requested this information (as well as data on ethnicity and care staff vaccinations) on 20 January.

4. Will we have enough supplies?

While we know the government has ordered enough vaccines overall, we do not know the details of when these will be delivered.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has repeatedly said that supply is the "limiting factor" in the speed of the rollout.

Chart showing the vaccine doses the UK has on order

The government expects to have enough supply to give people their second dose within three months, while also ensuring the next priority groups have their first dose.

People who have had their first dose have a considerable about of protection from the virus, but the second dose increases this.

Getting the second dose within three months is not a rigidly set time-frame, says Eleanor Riley, a professor in immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh.

"The main concern is that if people miss this twelve-week window for the second dose, there is a danger that they fall out of the system and don't get their second dose at all. This would be very worrying, as the second dose is essential for conferring high levels of long-lasting immunity," she says.

Currently, just 4% of people who've had their first dose, have gone on to have their second.

This is because the health service has been focused on delivering the first dose.

5. Who will be vaccinated next?

Currently, the government has a list of nine groups who will be vaccinated before anyone else, including care staff, the clinically vulnerable and anyone over 50.

After that, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will make suggestions on the next priority groups for the government to consider.

Timetable showing how vulnerable groups will receive the vaccine

In January, Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi said that it's his "very strong instinct... to say, those who through no fault of their own other than their work, have to come into contact with the virus, should be prioritised".

He listed shopkeepers, teachers and police officers as those who might be prioritised next.

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Covid: Vaccine given to 15 million in UK as PM hails 'extraordinary feat' - BBC News

People queuing outside a vaccination centre in Folkestone, Kent

More than 15 million people in the UK have had their first coronavirus jab, the prime minister has said.

The figure was reached just over two months after the first vaccine dose was given in the UK on 8 December.

Boris Johnson described it as a "significant milestone" and an "extraordinary feat".

It comes as the government is expected to announce on Monday it has met its pledge to offer a jab to everyone in the top four priority groups in the UK.

From Monday, the vaccine rollout is being expanded to include over-65s and those deemed clinically vulnerable.

In a video, Mr Johnson praised a "truly national, UK-wide effort", adding that in England the jab had been offered to everyone in the top four priority groups.

Wales has also met the target.

But "no-one is resting on their laurels," Mr Johnson said. "We've still got a long way to go to. And there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road. But after all we've achieved, I know we can go forward with great confidence."

Sunday's daily coronavirus figures show 15,062,189 people have now received an initial vaccine dose - after 505,362 first jabs were given out on Saturday.

A further 258 people in the UK have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test, taking the death toll by that measure to 117,166. Fewer deaths tend to be reported on Sundays, due to a reporting lag over the weekend.

There were 10,972 new cases reported, bringing the total number of recorded infections to 4,038,078.

'Route to freedom'

NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said the 15 million milestone was a "remarkable shared achievement" - reached 10 weeks after the first vaccine was administered in the UK.

"The NHS vaccination programme is the biggest and fastest in Europe - and in the health service's history - and that is down to the skill, care, and downright hard work of our fantastic staff, supported by local communities, volunteers and the armed forces," he said.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it meant one in every four adults was now "starting to receive protection from this dreadful disease".

But he cautioned: "There is so much more to do and I urge anyone eligible to step forward and take up their appointment. The vaccine is our route to freedom - we will beat this virus jab by jab."

So far the vaccination programme has been aimed at the top four priority groups, including NHS frontline staff, care home residents and workers, over-70s, and people deemed clinically extremely vulnerable.

These groups have accounted for 88% of the UK's Covid-19 deaths so far, according to the Department of Health and Social Care and are estimated by the JCVI to be some 15 million people.

A small number of the 15 million to receive a jab will have been outside these priority groups.

Ruth Rankine, director of the NHS Confederation's PCN Network of GP practices, paid tribute to the "incredible accomplishment" but added that "until everyone is protected, no one is protected".

"There is still work to do to administer first doses to all the remaining people from the first four cohorts, as well as moving down the cohorts until everyone has at least been offered a jab, not to mention beginning the work of administering second doses," she said.

Analysis box by Nick Triggle, health correspondent

It is undeniable the vaccine programme has over all been a success - only Israel and the United Arab Emirates have done more jabs per head.

But as well as pushing ahead with the under-70s, efforts need to continue to reach out to those not yet vaccinated in these first groups.

There have been reports of housebound patients still waiting, while some have questioned whether enough has been done to reach out to those who have concerns and have not taken up the offer.

The fear is uptake may be lowest in some of the most vulnerable communities and that risks widening health inequalities.

People will also ask what this means for unlocking. Those offered the jab account for around five in six deaths but just over half of hospitalisations.

That leaves a lot of vulnerable at risk - and with the numbers in hospital still above the peak in the first wave, the NHS isn't yet out of the woods.

From Monday, the vaccination programme enters a new phase, with over-65s and the clinically vulnerable being invited to book a jab.

The JCVI defines clinically vulnerable people as those with conditions including chronic respiratory disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cystic fibrosis, and severe asthma.

Some regions have already started vaccinating people aged 65 to 69, with NHS England having previously said that people in this age group could get a vaccine if GPs had supplies.

Vaccine timeline shows when priority groups are predicted to get their vaccines

Earlier, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab rejected calls from MPs in his party to put a date on when England's lockdown measures will be eased, saying the government will be "cautious".

On Saturday, the prime minister said he was "optimistic" he will be able to set out plans later this month for a "cautious" easing of England's lockdown, citing "huge progress" made with the vaccine rollout.

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VACCINE: When will I get the jab?
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The UK is currently administering doses of two vaccines approved by the medicine regulator - the Pfizer-BioNTech jab and the one developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca.

A third vaccine, made by US company Moderna, has been approved but supplies are not expected to be available until spring.

The UK is also lined up to receive at least three other vaccines if they are approved for use.

Its vaccination rate is the third highest in the world, behind only Israel and the UAE.

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2021-02-14 16:26:00Z
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COVID-19: Why the one-time optimist-in-chief is now a good deal more dour - Sky News

The first rule of world-beating vaccine club is you don't talk about world-beating vaccine club.

A weird one, especially when the first rule of world-beating coronavirus test and trace club seemed to be that you talk about little else. Even when the reality is clearly not living up to the description.

So what's going on?

Some of this can be explained by recent personnel changes in Downing Street and a more nuanced approach to communication strategy.

Less over-promising, more over-delivering.

But Boris Johnson also knows that too much trumpeting of vaccine triumphs increases the expectation of a more rapid retreat from lockdown.

Indeed, noises from the Conservative backbenches for a bonfire of COVID-19 regulations are growing.

As is the frustration that the one-time optimist-in-chief in Number 10 is now a good deal more dour.

The calculation in government though is that the political damage that would be done by bodging this final exit from the pandemic is so great that it can weather accusations of lumpen glumness.

No one wants to see a "reverse ferret" after restrictions are eased this time, as the PM put it on Saturday.

What's more; despite his newly measured tone, the vaccine success story has still given Boris Johnson some fresh political capital that he can spend on a more cautious unrolling of lockdown.

That's not to say this is just a question of political risk though.

The situation on the ground is still precarious with several thousand more people in hospital with COVID than at the first peak last year.

Scientists advising the government are calling for a step-by-step approach, stopping at each stage to measure any increase in infections.

While this does appear to be a guiding principle in Whitehall, on schools the ambition is bolder.

The aim as it stands is not for a phased return, but to get all pupils back in the classroom from 8 March.

Such a snap-back could have repercussions though, potentially pushing up the reproduction rate of the virus and slowing down easing in the rest of society.

Again though, that is a risk that Downing Street can afford to take.

What might change the calculation and give Boris Johnson more bandwidth for optimism is a pack of figures that will land on his desk this week.

Public Health England is currently looking at the first tranche of real-world data on the effectiveness of the vaccine in the UK and crucially how much it reduces transmission.

There is "cautious optimism" it will tell a good story and point to an expected drop in hospitalisations, deaths and cases.

It is that data that will determine how far the PM can go when he reveals his route out of lockdown in a week's time.

But it's that data that will also provide ammunition for those who want Boris Johnson to shake off his new found caution and starting talking more about world-beating vaccine club.

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2021-02-14 15:42:03Z
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Covid-19: Vaccine given to 15 million in UK 'significant milestone' - BBC News

At least 15 million people in the UK have had their first coronavirus jab, the prime minister has said.

The figure was reached just over two months after the first vaccine dose was given in the UK on 8 December.

Boris Johnson described it as a "significant milestone" and an "extraordinary feat".

It came as ministers said the UK was on track to meet its pledge of offering a vaccine to everyone in the top four priority groups by Monday.

From Monday, the vaccine rollout is being expanded to include over-65s and those deemed clinically vulnerable.

In a video, Mr Johnson said: "It has been a truly national, UK-wide effort. We have done it together.

"And in England, I can tell you we have now offered jabs to everyone in the first four priority groups, the people most likely to be severely ill from coronavirus, hitting the first target we set ourselves."

But "no-one is resting on their laurels," the PM said.

"We've still got a long way to go to. And there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road. But after all we've achieved, I know we can go forward with great confidence."

'Route to freedom'

NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said it was a "remarkable shared achievement" - reached 10 weeks after the first vaccine was administered in the UK.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it meant one in every four adults was now "starting to receive protection from this dreadful disease".

But he cautioned: "There is so much more to do and I urge anyone eligible to step forward and take up their appointment. The vaccine is our route to freedom - we will beat this virus jab by jab."

These groups have accounted for 88% of the UK's Covid-19 deaths so far, according to the Department of Health and Social Care and are estimated by the JCVI to be some 15 million people.

A small number of the 15 million to receive a jab will have been outside these priority groups.

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi tweeted that the government would "not rest" until vaccines were offered to all of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation's top nine priority groups by the end of April and then to all adults.