Lax approach to England lockdown raises prospect of stricter rules - Financial Times

The UK government is fearful that the latest lockdown in England is not being strictly observed and may have to be tightened to thwart the rapid spread of a new variant of Covid-19 and avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed.

But government insiders insisted on Sunday that the immediate priority was to enforce existing measures instead of introducing further restrictions, which would anger Conservative MPs and some ministers.

Boris Johnson, the prime minister, announced a third lockdown for England last Monday, which includes a legal stay-at-home order and the closure of schools and universities, all non-essential shops, and pubs and restaurants. People have been urged to work from home wherever possible, avoid public transport and exercise locally.

But, as another 54,490 coronavirus infections were reported in the UK on Sunday, ministers are concerned that these strict rules are not being adhered to as closely as during the first lockdown in March, as a result of both public fatigue and the vaccination rollout.

Matt Hancock, health secretary, warned on Sunday that the health service was under “very serious pressure” and said: “People need to not just follow the letter of the rules but follow the spirit as well and play their part.”

In an interview with the BBC, he did not rule out further restrictions. “I don’t want to speculate because the most important message is not whether the government will further strengthen the rules. The most important thing is that people stay at home and follow the rules that we have got.”

Some scientists, such as Susan Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, have said the current lockdown was inadequate to protect the NHS because the colder weather meant more people were falling ill and the new variant of the virus was more infectious. “We should be having a stricter lockdown [than in March], yet we’re got a more lax lockdown,” she said.

The current lockdown is looser in a few areas compared with March. Nurseries and playgrounds have been kept open, along with places of worship. Support and childcare bubbles have also been put in place for adults living alone and those with children under the age of one. The rules on which children can still attend schools are also less strict.

Jeremy Hunt, chair of the House of Commons health select committee, told the Financial Times it was “50:50” whether the NHS could “get through the next two-to-three weeks without having to ration critical care on a large scale”.

Officials said the prime minister would wait for the first two weeks of lockdown data to assess whether the measures were having the desired effect on infection and hospitalisation rates before determining whether tougher restrictions were necessary.

One senior government official said “nothing would be ruled out” if the situation did not improve.

A protester is arrested by Police on Clapham Common during an anti-lockdown demonstration on January 9. Ministers warn that there is only ‘fragile consent’ for existing rules. © Getty Images

“It’s a very tough package of measures. It was only introduced four days ago and it’s too early to say whether it’s having an impact. It will take 10 days to two weeks to see. Adherence is key, I wouldn’t expect more measures,” one Downing Street insider said.

The cabinet’s Covid-operations committee met on Sunday, where the focus was on the pressure facing the health service. “There are real concerns about the NHS . . . the situation is far worse than March,” one individual with knowledge of the meeting sad.

The government has launched a newspaper, TV and social media advertising blitz to reinforce its stay at home message, with the stark message: “If you go out, you can spread it, people will die”.

Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, warned that the NHS was facing “the most dangerous situation anyone can remember” despite the vaccine rollout. He said that hospitals would soon have to turn patients away unless infection rates dropped.

“We cannot afford to let our justified optimism for the future come at the expense of difficult action today,” Prof Whitty wrote in a statement released on Sunday. “Every unnecessary interaction you have could be the link in a chain of transmission that has a vulnerable person at the end.”

Keir Starmer has said nurseries “probably should be closed”. The opposition leader said: “I think there is a case for looking at nursery schools, we’re talking to the scientists about that. I think people are surprised that primary schools were closed but nurseries aren’t.”

Any further measures are likely to be met with a significant backlash from Conservative MPs and some members of the government who believe they would go too far and risk losing public buy-in.

“The only other things are curfews or not allowing key workers to go to work. There is no way we should be doing that. There’s fragile consent for the current rules, let alone doing more,” one minister said.

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2021-01-10 19:15:00Z
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Covid-19: Hancock warns flexing of rules 'could be fatal' - BBC News

PA Media

Flexing the coronavirus lockdown rules could be fatal, the health secretary has warned as hospital admissions soar.

Matt Hancock did not rule out strengthening current restrictions and told the BBC's Andrew Marr the NHS was under "very serious pressure".

It comes after almost 60,000 new cases of coronavirus were reported in the UK on Saturday and the number of deaths after a positive test passed 80,000.

Scientist Prof Peter Horby warned the UK was in "the eye of the storm".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the rules were tough but "may not be tough enough" and called for the government to hold daily press conferences to avoid "mixed messages".

The UK recorded another 563 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test on Sunday, down from 1,065 deaths on Saturday.

However, there tends to be fewer deaths reported on Sundays, due to a reporting lag over the weekend. There were also a further 54,940 daily cases.

• What's still allowed during lockdown?
• How will the UK vaccinate millions of people?

Mr Hancock told Andrew Marr "every time you try to flex the rules that could be fatal" and said staying at home was the "most important thing we can do collectively as a society".

The health secretary said he did not want to speculate on whether the government would further strengthen restrictions, after warnings from scientists on Saturday that they may need to be stricter.

"People need to not just follow the letter of the rules but follow the spirit as well and play their part," he said.

His comments came after Home Secretary Priti Patel defended police over enforcing lockdown rules following the case of two women who were fined for going for a walk five miles from their homes - a decision which is now under review.

The government has launched a campaign telling people to act like they have got the virus in a bid to tackle the rise in infections.

Under the national lockdown, people in England must stay at home and can go out only for limited reasons such as food shopping, exercise, or work if they cannot do so from home. Similar measures are in place across much of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said that if the virus continued on its current trajectory "many hospitals will be in real difficulties, and very soon".

In a statement released on Sunday, he said that unless people started to follow the rules more strictly, emergency patients will have to be turned away from hospitals, causing "avoidable deaths".

Prof Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said there may be "early signs that something is beginning to bite" due to the restrictions - but if they did not then stricter measures would be needed.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "I really hope people take this very seriously. It was bad in March, it's much worse now.

"We've seen record numbers across the board, record numbers of cases, record numbers of hospitalisations, record numbers of deaths."

Prof Horby said tougher measures might include those during the March lockdown, such as people only being able to exercise once a day and stricter rules about meeting people.

"We are in a situation where everything that was risky in the past is now more risky," he said.

Prof Horby said early signs were encouraging that the vaccines would be effective against the new Covid variants - first identified in the UK and in South Africa - and he did not want people to "hide under the duvet".

"We can see the end game now," he said.

Analysis, by BBC health correspondent Jim Reed

Higher cases inevitably mean more hospitalisations and more deaths.

The most recent figures show that, on average, 894 people per day are now dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test, up from 438 at the start of December.

The spike in cases since Christmas means that figure is almost certain to get worse before the most recent lockdown measures can start to have any effect.

Scientists think the new variant of the disease is more "transmissible", possibly because each infected individual produces more of the actual virus - sometimes referred to as the viral load.

Vaccination should help to protect the most vulnerable from serious symptoms but we don't yet know if receiving the jab stops an individual contracting the virus and passing it on to others.

Scientists say that may mean even tougher restrictions will be needed to bring the R-number below one and start to reduce the overall size of the pandemic.

Mass community testing is to be rolled out this week, the government has said, and the health secretary said around two million people had been vaccinated in the UK, with some 200,000 jabs being given in England daily.

Mr Hancock said by autumn every adult in the UK would be offered a vaccine.

He said the government was on course to reach its target of 15 million people vaccinated by mid-February, with the opening of seven mass vaccination centres this week likely to increase the rate of jabs.

Mr Hancock told Sky News' Sophy Ridge he hoped coronavirus could be treated like seasonal flu with an annual vaccination programme in the future.

Prof Horby said the vaccines may have to be updated "every few years" as the virus mutates and said it was unlikely the virus would go away completely.

"We're going to have to live with it," he said. "But that may change significantly.

"It may well become more of an endemic virus that's with us all the time and may cause some seasonal pressures and some excess deaths but is not causing the huge disruption that we're seeing now."

• THE JOE WICKS PODCAST: Joe asks some of his inspiring mates about their secret to physical and mental happiness
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2021-01-10 17:23:00Z
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Is lockdown about to get TOUGHER? Matt Hancock refuses to rule out curfews or closing nurseries - Daily Mail

Is lockdown about to get TOUGHER? Matt Hancock refuses to rule out curfews, a one-hour outdoor exercise limit, compulsory masks outside, closing nurseries or axing support bubbles if Covid cases keep rising

• The Labour leader attacked 'mixed messages' from ministers over lockdown 
• Said nurseries 'probably should be closed' like primary and secondary schools
• Matt Hancock refused to speculate on strengthening lockdown rules further 

By David Wilcock, Whitehall Correspondent For Mailonline

Published: 15:33 GMT, 10 January 2021 | Updated: 16:46 GMT, 10 January 2021

Matt Hancock raised fears of an even tougher lockdown to come today as he refused to rule out a swathe of new restrictions. 

The Health Secretary refused to speculate when directly asked if measures like curfews, limits to time allows outside homes and making masks compulsory outdoors might be brought in.

He also ducked out of confirmed whether nurseries could join primary and secondary schools in closing, and whether family support bubbles may need to be axed.

It came as a senior Government science advisor said it would become clear whether the current lockdown was lowering the spread of coronavirus cases - with deaths now above 80,000 - within a fortnight.

Professor Peter Horby, the chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said: 'If there's any sign that they're not then we're going to have to be even stricter, I'm afraid.'

The UK announced a further 573 coronavirus deaths today, the highest Sunday figure in seven months.

Mr Hancock appeared on the BBC's Andrew Marr Programme this morning, where he was asked about a range of measures that could be brought in.

 Mr Marr asked: 'Are you considering things like curfews, closing nurseries, ending some of those support bubbles, going back to only an hour of exercise outside and telling people in crowded outdoor spaces to wear masks? Are those the kind of things that you could consider if you don't get this under control very quickly?'

But Mr Hancock replied: 'Well, I don't want to speculate, because the most important message is not whether the government will further strengthen the rules, the most important thing is that people stay at home and follow the rules that we've got. '

The Health Secretary refused to speculate when directly asked if measures like curfews, limits to time allows outside homes and making masks compulsory outdoors might be brought in.

Professor Peter Horby, the chairman of virus advisory group NERVTAG, said: 'If there's any sign that they're not then we're going to have to be even stricter, I'm afraid.'

 Professor Horby told the same programme that the new variant discovered in Kent, that appears far more transmissible than older strains of Covid, has made the situation 'more risky'.

Asked what being 'even stricter' meant in practice he said: 'Well I think the principles haven't changed. There's no evidence that this virus is being transmitted in any different way, it's just that people when they've got it have got more virus so every contact is more risky.

'So the same principles apply. It's about decreasing social contacts and if there are unavoidable social contacts then being as strict as you can about distance and facemasks and hand hygiene and ventilation, etcetera.'

Mr Marr asked: So thinking back to March and the spring I can remember you could only go out for an hour for instance for any kind of exercise and there were much stricter rules about meeting other people. Are those are the kind of things we might see coming back if we don't get this under control now?'

To which he said: 'Yes, that's right. You know we have seen in the past very strict measures do work and if the current measures aren't strict enough then it's clear what we have to do.'

Meanwhile Labour leader  Sir Keir Starmer warned that lockdown rules may need to be made tougher if they do not arrest a surge in Covid cases - as he demanded nurseries be shut down immediately. 

He attacked 'mixed messages' from ministers over the lockdown restrictions as he urged Boris Johnson to front daily press conferences until the lockdown is lifted.

The UK's Covid death toll passed 80,000, after a further 1,035 deaths were recorded yesterday, increasing fears that the total will surpass 100,000 by the end of the month.  

But appearing on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme, Sir Keir said: 'They are tough and they're necessary. They may not be tough enough.

'In a sense, I think the most important thing is people get that message about stay at home.

'And it's up to the Government to put that message out there the whole time. We've had mixed messages I'm afraid for the last nine months which is why we've got a problem.

'I would like to see the Prime Minister out there every day with a press conference making sure that message is absolutely getting through.'

The Labour leader attacked 'mixed messages' from ministers over the lockdown restrictions as he urged Boris Johnson to front daily press conferences until the lockdown is lifted

Sir Keir Starmer said nurseries 'probably should be closed', telling the BBC: 'I think there is a case for looking at nursery schools, we're talking to the scientists about that'

Priti Patel today defended police as they began strict application of Covid rules that includes £200 fines and less tolerance for rule-breakers.

The Home Secretary warned that officers 'will not hesitate' to take action because the increasing number of new Covid-19 cases proved there was a need for 'strong enforcement' in cases where people were clearly breaking the rules.

Mr Hancock told Sky's Ridge on Sunday more people were obeying the rules than in the November lockdown, but added: 'Absolutely I'm going to back the police. The challenge here is that every flex can be fatal.

'You might look at the rules and think ''well it doesn't matter that much if I just do this or do that'', but these rules are not there as boundaries to be pushed, they're the limit of what people should be doing.'

Asked about the prospect of tighter restrictions later on Marr he added: 'I don't want to speculate because the most important message is not whether the Government will further strengthen the rules.

'The most important thing is that people stay at home and follow the rules that we have got.

'And that, in terms of the scale of the impact on the cases, that is the most important thing we can do collectively as a society.'

Mr Hancock, who gave the interview from his own home via video link, added: 'It is hard, it is not easy. But if you can do something from home and you don't need to go outside of home to do it, then you should.

'People need to not just follow the letter of the rules but follow the spirit as well and play their part.'

Sir Keir Starmer said nurseries 'probably should be closed'. Primary and Secondary schools have been closed during the lockdown but pre-schools remain open for younger children.

He told the BBC: 'I think there is a case for looking at nursery schools, we're talking to the scientists about that.

'I think people are surprised that primary schools were closed but nurseries aren't.'

He added: 'I think they probably should be closed, I do want to talk to the scientists about that.'

He said delivering on the vaccine programme targets was the best way of reopening schools.

But he said opening classrooms again did not need to be contingent on vaccinating teachers.

'We'd have to look at all the criteria but the most important thing is that vaccination programme,' he said.

'It is very difficult to see how we can start lifting restrictions in any meaningful way until the vaccine programme, at least that first part of it is rolled-out successfully.'

Pressed on whether reopening was contingent on inoculating teachers, he added: 'No, I don't know that it necessarily is, although if that can happen that would be a good thing.

'This argument that there are sectors where there is a very strong case for vaccination for obvious reasons, and I understand that and we are going to have that to accommodate that, quite frankly.

'But at the moment, we do need to focus on those who are most likely to go into hospital and tragically to die.'

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2021-01-10 15:33:00Z
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Covid-19: Hancock warns flexing of rules 'could be fatal' - BBC News

PA Media

Flexing the coronavirus lockdown rules could be fatal, the health secretary has warned as hospital admissions soar.

Matt Hancock did not rule out strengthening current restrictions and told the BBC's Andrew Marr the NHS was under "very serious pressure".

It comes after almost 60,000 new cases of coronavirus were reported in the UK on Saturday and the number of deaths after a positive test passed 80,000.

Scientist Prof Peter Horby warned the UK was in "the eye of the storm".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the rules were tough but "may not be tough enough" and called for the government to hold daily press conferences to avoid "mixed messages".

• What's still allowed during lockdown?
• How will the UK vaccinate millions of people?

Mr Hancock told Andrew Marr "every time you try to flex the rules that could be fatal" and said staying at home was the "most important thing we can do collectively as a society".

The health secretary said he did not want to speculate on whether the government would further strengthen restrictions, after warnings from scientists on Saturday that they may need to be stricter.

"People need to not just follow the letter of the rules but follow the spirit as well and play their part," he said.

His comments came after Home Secretary Priti Patel defended police over enforcing lockdown rules following the case of two women who were fined for going for a walk five miles from their homes - a decision which is now under review.

The government has launched a campaign telling people to act like they have got the virus in a bid to tackle the rise in infections.

Under the national lockdown, people in England must stay at home and can go out only for limited reasons such as food shopping, exercise, or work if they cannot do so from home. Similar measures are in place across much of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Prof Horby, who is chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said there may be "early signs that something is beginning to bite" in terms of the restrictions - but if they did not then stricter measures would be needed.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "I really hope people take this very seriously. It was bad in March, it's much worse now.

"We've seen record numbers across the board, record numbers of cases, record numbers of hospitalisations, record numbers of deaths."

Prof Horby said tougher measures might include those during the March lockdown, such as people only being able to exercise once a day and stricter rules about meeting people.

"We are in a situation where everything that was risky in the past is now more risky," he said.

Prof Horby said the early signs were encouraging that the vaccines would be effective against the new Covid variants - first identified in the UK and in South Africa - and he did not want people to "hide under the duvet".

"We can see the end game now," he said.

Analysis, by BBC health correspondent Jim Reed

Higher cases inevitably mean more hospitalisations and more deaths.

The most recent figures show that, on average, 894 people per day are now dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test, up from 438 at the start of December.

The spike in cases since Christmas means that figure is almost certain to get worse before the most recent lockdown measures can start to have any affect.

Scientists think the new variant of the disease is more "transmissible", possibly because each infected individual produces more of the actual virus - sometimes referred to as the viral load.

Vaccination should help to protect the most vulnerable from serious symptoms but we don't yet know if receiving the jab stops an individual contracting the virus and passing it on to others.

Scientists say that may mean even tougher restrictions will be needed to bring the R-number below one and start to reduce the overall size of the pandemic.

Mass community testing is to be rolled out this week, the government has said, and the health secretary said that around two million people had been vaccinated in England, with some 200,000 jabs being given daily.

Mr Hancock said by autumn every adult in the UK would be offered a vaccine.

He said the government was on course to reach its target of 13 million people vaccinated by mid-February, with the opening of seven mass vaccination centres this week likely to increase the rate of jabs.

Mr Hancock told Sky News' Sophy Ridge that he hoped coronavirus could be treated like seasonal flu with an annual vaccination programme in the future.

Prof Horby said the vaccines may have to be updated "every few years" as the virus mutates in the future and said it was unlikely the virus would go away completely.

"We're going to have to live with it," he said. "But that may change significantly.

"It may well become more of an endemic virus that's with us all the time and may cause some seasonal pressures and some excess deaths but is not causing the huge disruption that we're seeing now."

• THE JOE WICKS PODCAST: Joe asks some of his inspiring mates about their secret to physical and mental happiness
• THE CIPHER: A new thriller from BBC Sounds. A mysterious puzzle holds the key to catching a killer

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2021-01-10 14:06:00Z
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Covid-19: Hancock warns flexing of rules 'could be fatal' - BBC News

PA Media

Flexing the coronavirus lockdown rules could be fatal, the health secretary has warned as hospital admissions soar.

Matt Hancock did not rule out strengthening current restrictions and told the BBC's Andrew Marr the NHS was under "very serious pressure".

It comes after almost 60,000 new cases of coronavirus were reported in the UK on Saturday and the number of deaths after a positive test passed 80,000.

Scientist Prof Peter Horby warned the UK was in "the eye of the storm".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the rules were tough but "may not be tough enough" and called for the government to hold daily press conferences to avoid "mixed messages".

• What's still allowed during lockdown?
• How will the UK vaccinate millions of people?

Mr Hancock told Andrew Marr "every time you try to flex the rules that could be fatal" and said staying at home was the "most important thing we can do collectively as a society".

The health secretary said he did not want to speculate on whether the government would further strengthen restrictions, after warnings from scientists on Saturday that they may need to be stricter.

"People need to not just follow the letter of the rules but follow the spirit as well and play their part," he said.

His comments came after Home Secretary Priti Patel defended police over enforcing lockdown rules following the case of two women who were fined for going for a walk five miles from their homes - a decision which is now under review.

The government has launched a campaign telling people to act like they have got the virus in a bid to tackle the rise in infections.

Under the national lockdown, people in England must stay at home and can go out only for limited reasons such as food shopping, exercise, or work if they cannot do so from home. Similar measures are in place across much of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Prof Horby, who is chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said there may be "early signs that something is beginning to bite" in terms of the restrictions - but if they did not then stricter measures would be needed.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "I really hope people take this very seriously. It was bad in March, it's much worse now.

"We've seen record numbers across the board, record numbers of cases, record numbers of hospitalisations, record numbers of deaths."

Prof Horby said tougher measures might include those during the March lockdown, such as people only being able to exercise once a day and stricter rules about meeting people.

"We are in a situation where everything that was risky in the past is now more risky," he said.

Prof Horby said the early signs were encouraging that the vaccines would be effective against the new Covid variants - first identified in the UK and in South Africa - and he did not want people to "hide under the duvet".

"We can see the end game now," he said.

Analysis, by BBC health correspondent Jim Reed

Higher cases inevitably mean more hospitalisations and more deaths.

The most recent figures show that, on average, 894 people per day are now dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test, up from 438 at the start of December.

The spike in cases since Christmas means that figure is almost certain to get worse before the most recent lockdown measures can start to have any affect.

Scientists think the new variant of the disease is more "transmissible", possibly because each infected individual produces more of the actual virus - sometimes referred to as the viral load.

Vaccination should help to protect the most vulnerable from serious symptoms but we don't yet know if receiving the jab stops an individual contracting the virus and passing it on to others.

Scientists say that may mean even tougher restrictions will be needed to bring the R-number below one and start to reduce the overall size of the pandemic.

Mass community testing is to be rolled out this week, the government has said, and the health secretary said that around two million people had been vaccinated, with some 200,000 jabs being given daily.

Mr Hancock said by autumn every adult in England would be offered a vaccine.

• THE JOE WICKS PODCAST: Joe asks some of his inspiring mates about their secret to physical and mental happiness
• THE CIPHER: A new thriller from BBC Sounds. A mysterious puzzle holds the key to catching a killer

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2021-01-10 13:10:00Z
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