Government scientists looked into mass coronavirus testing of almost everyone in the UK - before concluding that a more targeted approach would be more effective.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) group held a number of discussions about the potential impact of a programme in which a large proportion of the population were given one-off COVID-19 tests, newly released documents show.
But the experts decided the plan would probably be less successful at reducing the spread of coronavirus than "focused, more frequent testing of people who are at higher risk of being infected and of infecting others".
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COVID-19 cases and R rate rise in UK
The document, which contains input from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), said mass testing could "identify a large number of infected people" if done successfully.
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But it noted that doing so alone would not stem transmission, which required people who were early in their infection to isolate.
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It said modelling indicated that mass testing was only likely to reduce the prevalence of the virus by 15-20% in a "best-case" scenario - that it "may only buy us a week".
"In Liverpool, positivity of mass testing might be lower than one might expect, based on estimated regional prevalence," it said.
"This may imply that those coming forward for mass testing are less likely to be infected than average."
It concludes: "Focused, more frequent testing of people who are at higher risk of being infected and of infecting others (such as key workers, health and social care workers and people in high prevalence areas) is likely to have a bigger impact than less frequent testing of the whole population.
"It is plausible that targeting groups who are less likely to have symptoms (and therefore less likely to be picked up from symptomatic testing), such as younger adults, may have a greater effect but we are not aware of any work evaluating such a strategy."
It came as a headteachers' union said it would not be possible to recruit and train all the volunteers needed to carry out COVID-19 tests for students.
The government has said that secondary school and college pupils' return to class in England will be staggered in the first week of January to help headteachers roll out mass testing of students.
Schools minister Nick Gibb said the tests would be administered by volunteers and agency staff, rather than teachers, with further details due to be published next week - when most schools are closed for Christmas.
But Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: "The plans outlined at the last minute by the government for mass testing in schools and colleges from the start of the spring term are undeliverable in that timescale, and it is beyond belief that they were landed on school and college leaders in such a cack-handed manner."
EU Brexit chief Michel Barnier was said to be prepared to water down his demands for access to Britain’s coastal waters. But UK sources close to the talks insisted the plans were “nowhere near where they need to be”. In a private meeting with EU coastal states, Mr Barnier told envoys Brussels would lower its demand for European boats to maintain access to British fishing grounds for at least eight years.
The Frenchman said a seven-year transition period, during which the generous access enjoyed by EU trawlermen to UK waters would be gradually phased down.
He also proposed boosting the bloc’s previous offer to increase fishing quotas for British vessels in our waters.
Mr Barnier said between 22 and 23 percent of the value of fish caught in UK waters should be returned to Britain.
This would hand a £135 million boost to Britain’s fishing industry after the end of the transition.
But British officials said the improved offer was still not enough to end the deadlock in the Brexit trade talks.
One source said: “Their prospers are nowhere near where they need to be.
“They need to drop that phase-in period down seriously.”
Mr Barnier also faced stiff opposition from hardline EU coastal states, led by France and Denmark, after he floated the proposals in order to gauge their mood for compromise.
An EU insider said the Paris' envoy in the meeting was “very vocal” on the importance of maintaining near-parity access to Britain’s fishing grounds.
Negotiations have continued today in Brussels without a significant breakthrough between EU and UK officials.
UK Brexit envoy Lord Frost held talks today with EU counterpart Mr Barnier at the European Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters.
Sources were downbeat on the prospect of significant progress ahead of Sunday’s deadline for a deal.
Mr Barnier told MEPs the talks had reached a “moment of truth” with both sides unable to end the impasse on the key sticking points – fishing rights and common standards.
The Frenchman said the row over access to Britain’s waters can still collapse the talks and is the “main hurdle” in the “very narrow” path to an agreement after more than nine months of wrangling.
Mr Barnier said: “The path to an agreement is very narrow at a time when decisions need to be taken. That will also be a time for everyone to live up to their responsibilities.”
The EU’s Brexit chief signalled he was refusing to drop a demand that would allow Brussels to slap Britain with punitive tariffs if European trawlermen are largely locked out of our fishing grounds in the future.
He insisted that any trade agreement must include a distinct link between Britain’s access to the single market and fishing opportunities in UK waters for EU vessels.
“If following a critical period of adjustment that is deemed unnecessary, if the UK wants to cut access to these waters for European fishermen, at any given time, then the EU also has to maintain its sovereign right react or to compensate by adjusting the conditions for products, and especially fisheries products, to the single market,” Mr Barnier said.
He added: "That's where we come up against one of the main hurdles of the negotiations – fisheries being part and parcel of the economic partnership.
"It would not be fair, not acceptable, if European fishermen were not allowed, following transitional rights, to have access to those waters when the rest of the agreement, especially applying to companies from the UK, would remain stable in their rights."
With just hours left to clinch an agreement, the Frenchman blamed Britain for the increasing time press by trying to run down the clock to secure concessions from the EU.
He said: “In June, they refused any form of extension to the transition, which was possible.
“If they should leave with an agreement or without, it is nevertheless the British who decided on that deadline.”
Boris Johnson has declined to rule out a third national lockdown after Christmas, saying the rates of infection have increased ‘very much’ in the last few weeks.
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The Prime Minister was asked on a visit to Greater Manchester whether England would follow Northern Ireland in imposing tough restrictions after the festive period.
He said: ‘We’re hoping very much that we will be able to avoid anything like that.
‘But the reality is that the rates of infection have increased very much in the last few weeks.’
A Whitehall official told The Times: ‘There is a case for going further than tier three and it is getting stronger.
‘[That could mean] closure of non-essential retail, stay-at-home orders. That would have to be actively considered in conversation with the local authority.’
The plans for stricter measures come as health chiefs warn of the toll on frontline staff and services from festive mixing.
The Government has resisted calls to U-turn on the Christmas bubble arrangements allowing three households to mix from December 23 to 27.
The president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Dr Katherine Henderson, has called on ministers to ‘do whatever it takes to get the situation firmly under control so that we can vaccinate people and then move forward’.
She described a ‘real perfect storm’ for hospitals as they try to balance increased numbers of Covid-19 patients with non-Covid work and a lack of beds.
Meanwhile Dame Donna Kinnair, chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said nurses would not enjoy Christmas ‘knowing what awaits them in January’, amid fears of what she predicted could be an ‘unrelenting tsunami’ of cases following relaxed restrictions.
And Dr Nick Scriven, immediate past president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said a period of mixing next week ‘strikes fear into the hearts of clinicians on the front line’.
During his visit to Manchester Mr Johnson urged the public to avoid spreading coronavirus over Christmas by keeping celebrations ‘short and small’.
He said: ‘What we’re saying to people now over this Christmas period is think of those rules about the three households that you can bubble up with, the five days. That is very much a maximum – that’s not a target people should aim for.
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‘I think people really get this, people do get this, all the evidence I’m seeing, people really understand this is the time to look after, to think about, our elderly relatives, avoid spreading the disease.
‘Keep it short, keep it small, have yourselves a very little Christmas as I said the other night – that is, I’m afraid, the way through this year.
‘Next year I have no doubt that as we roll out the vaccine and all the other things that we’re doing it will be very, very different indeed.’
Both Wales and Northern Ireland are planning a post-Christmas lockdown to make up for the relaxation of rules.
There appears to be growing consensus among ministers that England may be heading in the same direction.
Schools minister Nick Gibb earlier insisted the country’s tier system is ‘very effective’.
But he added ‘we rule nothing out’ when asked about the possibility of a national lockdown after Christmas.
Around 38 million people – more than two-thirds of England’s population – will be living under tier three restrictions from Saturday after Heath Secretary Matt Hancock announced new curbs yesterday.
He revealed huge parts of the East and South East will be moved from tier two to tier three, while there will be no change for vast swathes of the north and Midlands hoping to get a reprieve from the toughest restrictions.
Mr Hancock told MPs he regretted having to impose the measures but ‘there is a strong view right across Government that these actions are necessary’.
People forming "Christmas bubbles" are being told it is "vital" that they minimise contact with others from outside their household from today.
In a message on his Twitter account, which included a link to government guidance around the easing of COVID-19 rules over the festive period, Boris Johnson said: "If you are forming a Christmas Bubble, it's vital that from today, you minimise contact with people from outside your household.
"Everyone must take personal responsibility to avoid passing the virus on to loved ones this Christmas."
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COVID-19 tiers ramp up
Mr Johnson also warned people not to treat the allowance for three households to mix as a "target you should aim for", instead insisting that it was "very much a maximum".
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"Keep it short, keep it small," advised the prime minister, who also said he hoped that vaccines would help ensure that next year looks "very, very different".
Mr Johnson said he hoped to avoid another national lockdown in England, although the prospect was not ruled out by one of his ministers earlier on Friday.
More from Covid-19
His comments came as a nursing chief warned that the relaxation of restrictions over the festive period could trigger a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases in the new year.
However, a survey showed that half of adults across the country said they were planning to form a Christmas bubble.
In data released by the Office for National Statistics, 56% said they feel it is very easy, or easy, to understand the rules.
The figures from a survey between 10 and 13 December show that 38% of people have no plans to form a bubble over the festive period.
While more than two-thirds of England will be living under Tier 3 restrictions from Saturday, the restrictions on household mixing are set to be relaxed from next Wednesday for the festive period.
With a week to go until Christmas Day, nurses are calling on the government to give "fresh and more detailed" advice to the public in an effort to prevent a surge in COVID-19 cases in the new year.
Dame Donna Kinnair, chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: "After a difficult year, it is everybody's instinct to want to be together and see loved ones - especially those who live far apart or feel isolated.
"But what is at stake is coming into sharp focus.
"Travelling and family visits associated with this time of year will undoubtedly lead to more cases, more pressure on NHS and care services, and more deaths. By turning the second and third waves into an unrelenting tsunami, we would begin 2021 in the worst possible way."
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'Shorter and smaller Christmas is safer Christmas'
Dame Donna added that nurses would not be able to enjoy the Christmas period "knowing what awaits them in January", and urged ministers to give more information on the risks of mixing at Christmas, saying: "This virus isn't taking Christmas off and nor should we."
The mixing of households will also likely lead to tighter measures in the new year, according to a member of the government's scientific advisory panel.
SAGE's Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Sky News: "At the moment it doesn't look like the tier system is holding the epidemic wave back, unfortunately.
"So I think we are going to have to look at these measures and perhaps tighten them up, we really will. It's a horrible thing to have to say but we are in quite a difficult position."
But he suggested that, while the relaxation of restrictions at Christmas is "probably not good for the epidemic", it is "probably good for people's wellbeing in other ways".
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'Don't travel over Christmas' - Patel
He said he will not mix with elderly relatives over the festive season, choosing to wait until they have been vaccinated.
The warnings come amid growing frustration over the tier system, which saw a reshuffle on Thursday.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock moved the following areas into Tier 3 - the highest level of restrictions, which means entertainment venues and hospitality must close, other than for takeaway services:
Bedford
Central Bedfordshire
Luton
Milton Keynes
Buckinghamshire
Reading
Wokingham
Bracknell Forest
Windsor and Maidenhead
West Berkshire
Peterborough
The rest of Hertfordshire not already in Tier 3 (Dacorum, East Hertfordshire, North Hertfordshire, St Albans, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield)
Surrey (except Waverley)
Hastings and Rother
Portsmouth
Havant
Gosport
Bristol and North Somerset will move down into Tier 2, while Herefordshire drop into Tier 1.
All changes come into force from Saturday.
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Northern Ireland COVID crisis 'quite dire'
The announcement that more areas will be under the strictest restrictions led to criticism from the Conservative backbenches.
Steve Baker, the deputy chair for the lockdown-sceptic group of MPs the Covid Recovery Group, called for clarity on how the decisions are made to move areas between tiers.
He said: "After a full and damaging national lockdown, millions more people and businesses across the country are heading into tougher restrictions.
"The government must urgently clarify what the criteria are for moving areas between, and especially down, the tiers."
Stevenage MP Stephen McPartland said it was "ridiculous that we are being dragged into Tier 3", while Altrincham and Sale West MP Sir Graham Brady said the news that Greater Manchester will stay in the highest tier will be "greeted with dismay".
A new national lockdown was not ruled out by the government on Friday, after leaders in Wales and Northern Ireland announced their nations would be subject to strict restrictions after Christmas
Speaking to Sky News earlier, schools minister Nick Gibb said: "Nothing is ruled out of course as we tackle this pandemic."
But he insisted that the current tier system in England is "very effective" at finding where local spikes are and focusing restrictions on those areas.
The President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine later said we must do "whatever it takes" to get coronavirus cases under control.
When asked whether another lockdown was needed, Dr Katherine Henderson said: "I don't really care what the terminology is, all I know is that we need to do something to get ourselves suppressing the community transmission of the virus."
People forming "Christmas bubbles" are being told it is "vital" that they minimise contact with others from outside their household from today.
In a message on his Twitter account, which included a link to government guidance around the easing of COVID-19 rules over the festive period, Boris Johnson said: "If you are forming a Christmas Bubble, it's vital that from today, you minimise contact with people from outside your household.
"Everyone must take personal responsibility to avoid passing the virus on to loved ones this Christmas."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
COVID-19 tiers ramp up
It comes as a nursing chief warned that the relaxation of restrictions over the festive period could trigger a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases in the new year.
Advertisement
However, a survey showed that half of adults across the country said they were planning to form a Christmas bubble.
In data released by the Office for National Statistics, 56% said they feel it is very easy, or easy, to understand the rules.
More from Covid-19
The figures from a survey between 10 and 13 December show that 38% of people have no plans to form a bubble over the festive period.
While more than two-thirds of England will be living under Tier 3 restrictions from Saturday, the restrictions on household mixing are set to be relaxed from next Wednesday for the festive period.
With a week to go until Christmas Day, nurses are calling on the government to give "fresh and more detailed" advice to the public in an effort to prevent a surge in COVID-19 cases in the new year.
Dame Donna Kinnair, chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: "After a difficult year, it is everybody's instinct to want to be together and see loved ones - especially those who live far apart or feel isolated.
"But what is at stake is coming into sharp focus.
"Travelling and family visits associated with this time of year will undoubtedly lead to more cases, more pressure on NHS and care services, and more deaths. By turning the second and third waves into an unrelenting tsunami, we would begin 2021 in the worst possible way."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
'Shorter and smaller Christmas is safer Christmas'
Dame Donna added that nurses would not be able to enjoy the Christmas period "knowing what awaits them in January", and urged ministers to give more information on the risks of mixing at Christmas, saying: "This virus isn't taking Christmas off and nor should we."
The mixing of households will also likely lead to tighter measures in the new year, according to a member of the government's scientific advisory panel.
SAGE's Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Sky News: "At the moment it doesn't look like the tier system is holding the epidemic wave back, unfortunately.
"So I think we are going to have to look at these measures and perhaps tighten them up, we really will. It's a horrible thing to have to say but we are in quite a difficult position."
But he suggested that, while the relaxation of restrictions at Christmas is "probably not good for the epidemic", it is "probably good for people's wellbeing in other ways".
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
'Don't travel over Christmas' - Patel
He said he will not mix with elderly relatives over the festive season, choosing to wait until they have been vaccinated.
The warnings come amid growing frustration over the tier system, which saw a reshuffle on Thursday.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock moved the following areas into Tier 3 - the highest level of restrictions, which means entertainment venues and hospitality must close, other than for takeaway services:
Bedford
Central Bedfordshire
Luton
Milton Keynes
Buckinghamshire
Reading
Wokingham
Bracknell Forest
Windsor and Maidenhead
West Berkshire
Peterborough
The rest of Hertfordshire not already in Tier 3 (Dacorum, East Hertfordshire, North Hertfordshire, St Albans, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield)
Surrey (except Waverley)
Hastings and Rother
Portsmouth
Havant
Gosport
Bristol and North Somerset will move down into Tier 2, while Herefordshire drop into Tier 1.
All changes come into force from Saturday.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Northern Ireland COVID crisis 'quite dire'
The announcement that more areas will be under the strictest restrictions led to criticism from the Conservative backbenches.
Steve Baker, the deputy chair for the lockdown-sceptic group of MPs the Covid Recovery Group, called for clarity on how the decisions are made to move areas between tiers.
He said: "After a full and damaging national lockdown, millions more people and businesses across the country are heading into tougher restrictions.
"The government must urgently clarify what the criteria are for moving areas between, and especially down, the tiers."
Stevenage MP Stephen McPartland said it was "ridiculous that we are being dragged into Tier 3", while Altrincham and Sale West MP Sir Graham Brady said the news that Greater Manchester will stay in the highest tier will be "greeted with dismay".
A new national lockdown was not ruled out by the government on Friday, after leaders in Wales and Northern Ireland announced their nations would be subject to strict restrictions after Christmas
Speaking to Sky News earlier, schools minister Nick Gibb said: "Nothing is ruled out of course as we tackle this pandemic."
But he insisted that the current tier system in England is "very effective" at finding where local spikes are and focusing restrictions on those areas.
People forming "Christmas bubbles" are being told it is "vital" that they minimise contact with others from outside their household from today.
In a message on his Twitter account, which included a link to government guidance around the easing of COVID-19 rules over the festive period, Boris Johnson said: "If you are forming a Christmas Bubble, it's vital that from today, you minimise contact with people from outside your household.
"Everyone must take personal responsibility to avoid passing the virus on to loved ones this Christmas."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
COVID-19 tiers ramp up
It comes as a nursing chief warned that the relaxation of restrictions over the festive period could trigger a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases in the new year.
Advertisement
However, a survey showed that half of adults across the country said they were planning to form a Christmas bubble.
In data released by the Office for National Statistics, 56% said they feel it is very easy, or easy, to understand the rules.
More from Covid-19
The figures from a survey between 10 and 13 December show that 38% of people have no plans to form a bubble over the festive period.
While more than two-thirds of England will be living under Tier 3 restrictions from Saturday, the restrictions on household mixing are set to be relaxed from next Wednesday for the festive period.
With a week to go until Christmas Day, nurses are calling on the government to give "fresh and more detailed" advice to the public in an effort to prevent a surge in COVID-19 cases in the new year.
Dame Donna Kinnair, chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: "After a difficult year, it is everybody's instinct to want to be together and see loved ones - especially those who live far apart or feel isolated.
"But what is at stake is coming into sharp focus.
"Travelling and family visits associated with this time of year will undoubtedly lead to more cases, more pressure on NHS and care services, and more deaths. By turning the second and third waves into an unrelenting tsunami, we would begin 2021 in the worst possible way."
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
'Shorter and smaller Christmas is safer Christmas'
Dame Donna added that nurses would not be able to enjoy the Christmas period "knowing what awaits them in January", and urged ministers to give more information on the risks of mixing at Christmas, saying: "This virus isn't taking Christmas off and nor should we."
The mixing of households will also likely lead to tighter measures in the new year, according to a member of the government's scientific advisory panel.
SAGE's Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Sky News: "At the moment it doesn't look like the tier system is holding the epidemic wave back, unfortunately.
"So I think we are going to have to look at these measures and perhaps tighten them up, we really will. It's a horrible thing to have to say but we are in quite a difficult position."
But he suggested that, while the relaxation of restrictions at Christmas is "probably not good for the epidemic", it is "probably good for people's wellbeing in other ways".
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
'Don't travel over Christmas' - Patel
He said he will not mix with elderly relatives over the festive season, choosing to wait until they have been vaccinated.
The warnings come amid growing frustration over the tier system, which saw a reshuffle on Thursday.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock moved the following areas into Tier 3 - the highest level of restrictions, which means entertainment venues and hospitality must close, other than for takeaway services:
Bedford
Central Bedfordshire
Luton
Milton Keynes
Buckinghamshire
Reading
Wokingham
Bracknell Forest
Windsor and Maidenhead
West Berkshire
Peterborough
The rest of Hertfordshire not already in Tier 3 (Dacorum, East Hertfordshire, North Hertfordshire, St Albans, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield)
Surrey (except Waverley)
Hastings and Rother
Portsmouth
Havant
Gosport
Bristol and North Somerset will move down into Tier 2, while Herefordshire drop into Tier 1.
All changes come into force from Saturday.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Northern Ireland COVID crisis 'quite dire'
The announcement that more areas will be under the strictest restrictions led to criticism from the Conservative backbenches.
Steve Baker, the deputy chair for the lockdown-sceptic group of MPs the Covid Recovery Group, called for clarity on how the decisions are made to move areas between tiers.
He said: "After a full and damaging national lockdown, millions more people and businesses across the country are heading into tougher restrictions.
"The government must urgently clarify what the criteria are for moving areas between, and especially down, the tiers."
Stevenage MP Stephen McPartland said it was "ridiculous that we are being dragged into Tier 3", while Altrincham and Sale West MP Sir Graham Brady said the news that Greater Manchester will stay in the highest tier will be "greeted with dismay".
A new national lockdown was not ruled out by the government on Friday, after leaders in Wales and Northern Ireland announced their nations would be subject to strict restrictions after Christmas
Speaking to Sky News earlier, schools minister Nick Gibb said: "Nothing is ruled out of course as we tackle this pandemic."
But he insisted that the current tier system in England is "very effective" at finding where local spikes are and focusing restrictions on those areas.