Sabtu, 12 Desember 2020

Brexit: Businesses despair at prospect of no-deal - BBC News

ford plant
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As a business journalist I spend most of my time with business leaders - most of who, regardless of the way they voted in the referendum, are holding their heads in their hands at the prospect of an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.

They simply can't believe that the UK government would risk whole sectors of the economy.

As a friend of mine recently pointed out, the business world is full of people who will tell you: "If I ran my company the way they are running the country I'd have been sacked long ago."

But as he also observed, countries aren't companies. There is a collection of concepts broader than shareholder value at work. A former remain-voting cabinet minister agreed and tried to describe what Boris Johnson personally, genuinely and deeply believes them to be.

  • Brexit trade deal: The sticking points
  • Brexit: How are both sides preparing?

First, having gone through all the angst of the referendum and the four years of wrangling since, there is no point ending up in a place where the EU is still calling the shots.

For example, let's say the EU reduces workers hours under the working time directive. If the UK doesn't follow suit, the EU's right to unilaterally impose tariffs - as severe as they like - will be enshrined in a "free" trade agreement.

That is unacceptable - humiliating even. It lacks political integrity and accepting it just papers over the structural flaws in the relationship until the cracks inevitably appear again.

To coin a much-mocked phrase that may surface again this weekend - Brexit means Brexit.

Boosterism

Second, Boris Johnson thinks that the imposition of tariffs will prove to be a bit like the millennium bug. Feared by Cassandras as Armageddon, costing money to prepare for but ultimately passing off with very little fuss - economic life goes on.

Dread warnings about the car industry will prove to be overblown, currency movements (sterling depreciation) will help offset tariffs for exporters and importers will source more ingredients and components from the UK.

Third, boosterism is not fake. The prime minister genuinely believes that with a bit of pluck, a fair wind and the advantage of language, a great legal system and convenient global time zone, the UK will find a way to prosper in partnership with some of the fastest growing parts of the global economy.

You can argue with almost every point made here - and god knows the arguments about them have dominated some of our lives for the last four years to the point of exhaustion.

The point is that the prime minister genuinely believes them to be true - most importantly point one.

Some have argued that if it is a case of potential tariffs maybe later - IF our rule books diverge and accommodations can't be found - versus swingeing tariffs now, why wouldn't you say "tariffs later please"?

After all, we are experiencing the worst economic downturn in over 300 years - please not now. I hear business leaders scream this.

'Pretty long shot'

But politicians don't really understand business, never really have and haven't really listened to them properly for quite a while now. Their bottom line is the parliamentary party and the electorate. (Some would say in that order in this case).

If true, that surely means there is ZERO chance of a deal.

The EU shows no sign of allowing us to play on their pitch without being able to cry foul if we pick the ball up and start running towards goal with it. The same cabinet minister told me he agreed a deal now looked like "a pretty long shot".

However, he pointed to the success minister Michael Gove and Maroš Šefčovič had in agreeing a solution - albeit temporary in some respects - to a situation in Northern Ireland that could have seen the UK risk widespread condemnation by breaking international law.

But that was more about process than principle. It was more about checkpoints and certificates than constitutional fundamentals.

Containers at Dover
EPA

One possible compromise suggested would be some sort of body to referee how serious the fouls and how heavy the penalty should be.

But how would you constitute such a body - maybe put a few representatives from EU countries along with a delegate from the UK with a referee in charge. But hang on, have you not just reinvented the EU Commission?

The appropriate body, say the hard Brexiteers, is the World Trade Organisation (WTO) - it already exists.

But try telling that to a Welsh sheep farmer who will see the WTO uphold the EU's right - obligation in fact - to slap a 40% tariff on the 70% of Welsh lamb that heads for the EU.

Same goes for those who land tonnes of cuttlefish and mackerel who may catch more in "our waters" but will have nowhere to sell them without a trade deal.

There may yet be a deal but its looking very hard to see a landing zone that reconciles these economic interests with the constitutional purity that the prime minister genuinely believes is required.

Others will say that purity is an illusion. All international trade treaties involve a sacrifice of sovereignty - including membership of the WTO. Witness the battle between Airbus and Boeing with the WTO approving tariffs in both directions as reasonable punishments for governments doing "whatever they want" to support their own industries.

So here we are - to the horror of most businesses - at the edge of the cliff.

As for postponing the whole damn thing till a global pandemic passes - forget it. The quote-loving PM would no doubt agree with Henry Kissinger who once said, "whatever must happen ultimately should happen immediately".

If it does happen, businesses insist that some industry sectors will suffer, jobs will be lost and most business leaders will look on in despair.

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2020-12-12 10:42:00Z
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Climate change: UK to end aid for fossil fuel projects abroad - BBC News

boris
Reuters

The government has announced that it will end direct support for overseas fossil fuel projects, as the UK hosts a key climate summit.

The move means the UK will no longer provide export finance or aid funding for oil, gas or coal projects.

The statement comes as the UK, France and the UN host a virtual climate meeting later today.

About 75 world leaders will attend, marking five years since the adoption of the Paris climate agreement.

  • What is climate change?
  • EU leaders raise target for emissions cut to 55%
  • Covid drives record emissions drop in 2020
  • Have countries kept their climate change promises?

The UK government's practice of supporting overseas fossil fuel projects through export finance, aid funding and trade promotion has long been controversial.

As the UK moved away from coal, oil and gas at home it was seen as hypocritical to be financing these projects abroad.

Now the prime minister has agreed to end this practice as soon as possible.

"Climate change is one of the great global challenges of our age, and it is already costing lives and livelihoods the world over, our actions as leaders must be driven not by timidity or caution, but by ambition on a truly grand scale," Boris Johnson said.

"That is why the UK recently led the way with a bold new commitment to reduce emissions by at least 68% by 2030, and why I'm pleased to say today that the UK will end taxpayer support for fossil fuel projects overseas as soon as possible."

Presentational grey line
Analysis box by Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst

Boris Johnson's ebullient backing for tougher emissions cuts follows a tradition of British leadership on climate change.

UK experts play a central role on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, advising on science and policy.

In politics, the UK was an important player in negotiating the Rio framework convention on climate in 1992. And the deputy prime minister John Prescott pounded the table in the middle of the night to force through the Kyoto climate protocol in 1997.

The UK then passed its landmark Climate Change Act mandating step-by-step emissions cuts, and formed its Climate Change Committee to show how.

The UK strengthened the EU's climate ambition. Then the Prince of Wales business leaders' group convinced politicians that influential CEOs would support measures restricting CO2.

On economics, the 2006 UK Stern Review showed that ignoring climate change was more costly than tackling it.

And recently the former Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, argued that banks should reject fossil fuel firms because they constitute an investment risk. No other country has a record quite like this.

Presentational grey line

The announcement has been made as the UK hosts a climate ambition summit.

This virtual gathering is taking place after the pandemic caused the postponement of the annual Conference of the Parties, due to take place in Glasgow this year.

Paris
EPA

The UK says that today's short, action-oriented summit will put a premium on new commitments from countries.

Around 70 leaders from all over the world will take part, including the Secretary General of the United Nations, and President Macron of France. Pope Francis will also address the meeting.

The UK will point to its new commitment on overseas fossil fuel projects as well as a new carbon cutting target of 68% by 2030, announced last week by the prime minister.

The EU will also present a new 2030 target of a 55% cut in emissions, agreed after all-night negotiations this week.

China and India will also be taking part, though the extent of their new commitments is not clear.

Uk

Australia had held out the promise of not using old carbon credits to meet future cuts in emissions.

But the UK felt that this didn't go far enough and the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison won't be taking part.

Russia, South Africa and Saudi Arabia won't be involved either.

Some observers believe this hard line is justified.

"From a kind of symbolic procedural point of view, it's good to have everybody on board," said Prof Heike Schroeder from the University of East Anglia.

"But from a proactive, creating some kind of sense of urgency approach it also makes sense to say we only get to hear from you if you have something new to say."

Boris
Reuters

The UK wants the focus to be on the countries who are set to make new net-zero announcements, or present new plans for 2030.

Indeed a range of smaller countries and island states will be among those presenting new plans at the summit.

"If the least developed countries can do this, so can the richest countries," said Andrew Norton, from the International Institute for Environment and Development.

"The big emitters, including laggards such as Russia, Australia and Brazil, need to pick up the pace and take credible steps to make the cuts that are urgently needed to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C."

Australia
Reuters

The five years since the Paris agreement was adopted have been the warmest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, and emissions have continued to accrue in the atmosphere.

Over that period, many countries and businesses have started the process of decarbonisation.

The progress they've made now needs to be acknowledged and encouraged, says former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.

"For this Saturday, they are focusing on the reduction of emissions, and that is a good thing because that progress that's been seen in the real economy has to be reflected and incentivised further by those additional commitments."

One area that's unlikely to yield any progress at this meeting is the question of finance. Rich countries have promised to mobilise $100bn a year from 2020 under the Paris agreement - but the commitments on cash are just not forthcoming.

Hurricane
Reuters

Despite this major drawback, many in the international climate community will approach this meeting in a positive frame of mind.

The last six months have seen long term goals set by China, Japan and Korea - and the election of a climate friendly president in the US.

"We saw a wonderful momentum prior to Paris. And I feel it in a way that we are now again in a time where things become do-able," said Jochen Flasbarth, state secretary at the Federal Ministry of Environment, Germany.

"I hope others who are a bit away, that they come back and are very committed, as well."

"So I'm quite optimistic at the end of this year."

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathBBC.

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2020-12-12 09:20:00Z
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Revealed: How No-Deal Brexit Could Change Britain On Day 1 – And Beyond - HuffPost UK

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  1. Revealed: How No-Deal Brexit Could Change Britain On Day 1 – And Beyond  HuffPost UK
  2. Boris Johnson says no-deal Brexit 'looking very, very likely'  The Independent
  3. Brexit: EU leaders close ranks as no-deal talk mounts  BBC News
  4. One year on from his greatest triumph, the country won't blame Boris for a no-deal Brexit  Telegraph.co.uk
  5. Brexiteers urge PM to stand firm — but for some in Cabinet, a bad deal is better than no deal  iNews
  6. View Full coverage on Google News

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2020-12-12 08:26:00Z
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Brexit LIVE: Boris and VDL 48 hour countdown - PM hints no deal is 'likely and wonderful' - Daily Express

Contingency plans have been escalated on both sides as a no deal Brexit has become increasingly likely with the transition period due to end on December 31. Huge sticking points on fishing, state aid and governance still remain with the Ms von der Leyen concluding earlier this week the UK and EU were still "far apart" on those issues.

Despite this Mr Johnson has remained confident the UK with thrive with or without a deal, although he has stressed the former is more preferable.

The Prime Minister argued while leaving the transition period without a deal was not what he had “set out to achieve” it would allow the UK to “do exactly what we want from January”.

He told The Times: “Unfortunately there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress.”

“I’ve got to tell you that from where I stand now it is looking very, very likely that we will have to go for a solution that I think would be wonderful for the UK, and we’d be able to do exactly what we want from January.”

The European Commission president also told EU leaders yesterday morning a no deal Brexit was more now probable.

Ms von der Leyen said: “I will not give percentage odds but there is higher probability for no deal than a deal.”

She has also made “repeatedly made clear” to Mr Johnson “the principle of fair competition” which would requiring the UK to remain tied to EU equivalent trading standards was a deal-breaker for the Brussels side.

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8am update: Tory MP demands assurance from Boris Johnson

Reacting to the news the Royal Navy could intervene in a no deal Brexit, Daniel Kawczynski has urged the Prime Minister to give an “absolute guarantee” they will be deployed should talks fall through on Sunday.

Mr Kawczynski tweeted: “In the event of no deal with EU on Sunday we must receive absolute guarantee from Boris Johnson that British naval forces will be deployed from January 1st to prevent illegal French fishing in our waters.”

7.30am update: Former Australian prime minister tells Boris Johnson "be careful what you wish for" with EU trade deal

Malcolm Turnbull, who was Australian prime minister between 2015 and 2018, warned Boris Johnson there was no trade deal between his country and the EU which meant "large barriers".

Speaking on BBC Question Time, Mr Turnbull said: "Australia has a deal with the EU on WTO terms and there are really some very large barriers to Australian trade with Europe, which we are seeking to address as we negotiate a free trade agreement with Europe

"But Australians would not regard our trade relationship with Europe as being a satisfactory one.

"There are very big barriers to Australian exports of agriculture products in particular and a lot of friction in the system in terms of services."

7am update: A no deal Brexit could cost Scotland's food and drink industry £2billion, an industry leader has warned.

James Withers, the chief executive of Scotland Food and Drink, said the ongoing uncertainty over the UK's future relationship with the EU means some businesses are already stopping selling products there.

Coronavirus has also caused "huge losses for businesses who are way more fragile going into 2021 than they otherwise would have been", he said.

He warned Boris Johnson walk away without a deal on top of that could push some firms out of business.

Scotland normally exports about £1.2billion worth of food to the EU every year, he said, adding having to resort to World Trade Organisation terms will be a "living nightmare for a lot of food and drink businesses".

Mr Withers said: "The impact of tariffs could effectively end most of our red meat exports to Europe.

"Scotch lamb would face tariffs of between 40 percent and 50 percent, beef over 80 percent.”

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2020-12-12 07:55:00Z
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Brexit: Armed Navy boats on standby to protect UK waters in case of no deal - Sky News

Armed Royal Navy boats are being prepared to patrol the UK's fishing waters in an apparent final warning shot to Brussels as negotiations enter the final 48 hours. 

Four of the 80-metre vessels are on standby to guard British waters from EU fishermen in case no deal is agreed on fishing rights after the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December.

The Ministry of Defence, confirming the move, said the deployment of the boats had been agreed as part of planning for the end of the transition period.

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No-deal Brexit 'looking very, very likely'

According to The Times, patrol powers will be beefed up with Navy officers allowed to board foreign vessels and arrest fishermen if no deal is reached.

Fishing has been one of the sticking points in talks, which are fast approaching their end on Sunday with both sides saying no deal is likely.

Access to each other's waters will end next year, although Brussels has called for the current terms to continue for 12 months - a request that appears to have been rejected.

Tory MPs have urged Boris Johnson to ensure UK waters will be protected if talks collapse.

More from Brexit

Shrewsbury and Atcham MP Daniel Kawczynski tweeted: "In the event of no deal with EU on Sunday we must receive absolute guarantee from Boris Johnson that British naval forces will be deployed from January 1 to prevent illegal French fishing in our waters."

On Friday, the prime minister met senior minister Michael Gove, who is responsible for Brexit planning, and other officials to "take stock" of the government's plans for a no-deal exit.

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Talks are set to continue throughout the weekend, although European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on Friday the two sides had "not yet found the solutions to bridge our differences" on fisheries.

She urged the government to "understand the legitimate expectations of EU fishing fleets built on decades, and sometimes centuries, of access".

Mr Johnson said he was "hopeful" progress could be made.

"But I've got to tell you, that from where I stand now... it is looking very, very likely that we will have to go for a solution that I think would be wonderful for the UK, and we'd be able to do exactly what we want from January," he said.

Parts of the M20 have been closed as a test is carried out on the motorway as part of a "dress rehearsal" for potential traffic problems after Brexit.
Image: A moveable barrier has been implemented on the M20 as part of Operation Brock

Meanwhile, stretches of the M20 were closed overnight as a test is carried out on the motorway as part of a "dress rehearsal" for potential traffic problems after Brexit.

The scheme, known as Operation Brock, is to ease congestion in Kent if traffic is brought to a standstill due to disruption caused if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement and there is no longer frictionless trade.

The UK is sending a message to Macron and Barnier
Analysis by Rob Powell, political correspondent

Separating the theatrics from the substance in the Brexit saga can often be a tough task. Not today.

Last night's confirmation from the Ministry of Defence that four Navy ships are on standby to deter EU vessels in the event of no deal sounds alarming.

"We'll send in gunboats" screams the front page of this morning's Daily Mail.

In reality, it's the job of these four 'offshore patrol vessels' to safeguard UK waters.

"Chasing naughty fishermen" is how one former Navy sailor describes their task.

So it's no great surprise that they'll be used in the New Year - whatever Brexit arrangement is reached.

But the fact this story has been confirmed by the Ministry of Defence and has found its way onto the front pages does tell us something.

Fishing is one of the few areas where the UK has a high degree of leverage over the European Union.

If it is to be no deal, French fishing fleets that depend on UK waters to make a living will lose all access.

That could decimate coastal communities on the other side of the Channel and be politically toxic for French President Emmanuel Macron.

In cooking up this story, the UK is sending a message to him and Michel Barnier that it is serious about no deal.

Flexing muscles rather than revealing new facts.

As ever was the case in Brexit.

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2020-12-12 07:01:03Z
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Jumat, 11 Desember 2020

Brexit trade deal: What's going on? - BBC Newsnight - BBC News

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2020-12-12 00:28:09Z
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Royal Navy vessels will be dispatched to guard Britain's fishing waters if there is a No Deal Brexit - Daily Mail

Britain will send in gunboats over Brexit: Four Royal Navy vessels will guard UK fishing waters against French trawlers if there is No Deal - after Macron and Merkel's snub and PM's warning it is 'very, very likely'

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned a No Deal Brexit was now ‘very, very likely’
  • Royal Navy gunboats could be deployed to patrol English Channel and Irish Sea
  • Wildcat and Merlin helicopters are on standby to help with coastal surveillance 

Four Royal Navy vessels will be dispatched to Britain’s territorial waters if a trade deal is not agreed with the EU.

Armed with cannon and machine guns, they will patrol the English Channel and Irish Sea to stop illegal fishing.

In a dramatic ratcheting-up of No Deal contingency planning, Wildcat and Merlin helicopters are also being placed on standby to help with coastal surveillance.

And military personnel have been seconded to the Joint Maritime Security Centre to help deal with any clashes in fishing grounds.

The naval ships could even be ordered to impound rogue French fishing vessels.

Britain will send in four Royal Navy vessels with cannon and machine guns to patrol the English Channel and Irish Sea to stop illegal fishing if a trade deal is not agreed with the EU

Britain will send in four Royal Navy vessels with cannon and machine guns to patrol the English Channel and Irish Sea to stop illegal fishing if a trade deal is not agreed with the EU

The potential deployment evokes memories of the Cod Wars of the 1970s. At times the Royal Navy stopped Icelandic boats interfering with British trawlers. 

The move is unlikely to calm tensions ahead of tomorrow’s deadline for a decision on whether trade negotiations should carry on.

Boris Johnson yesterday warned No Deal was now ‘very, very likely’, meaning Britain would have to trade with the EU under what he calls an ‘Australian-style relationship’.

The Prime Minister had tried to speak directly to Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel but the French and German leaders rebuffed his approach.

As Mr Macron refused to budge on fishing quotas, insisting he was unwilling to ‘give up my share of the cake’:

  • Mr Johnson met Michael Gove and senior officials last night to vet No Deal plans in case he abandons trade talks tomorrow;
  • The Governor of the Bank of England insisted the financial system was in an incredibly strong position;
  • However the pound fell and analysts warned No Deal could wipe £36billion off the value of leading companies;
  • Farmers feared for sheep flocks because of the prospect of crippling export tariffs;
  • Roads to the Channel ports were again jammed yesterday.

Fishing rights have been one of the key sticking points in the trade talks, with the two sides bitterly divided over how much access EU fleets should continue to have to British waters.

Earlier this week the EU suggested it should continue to enjoy the same access as it does now for at least another year – even under No Deal. That idea has been rejected by UK ministers.

The Ministry of Defence has spent months drawing up contingency plans for a number of outcomes at the end of the transition period on December 31.

It is feared that a No Deal result could lead to clashes between rival boats – with internal government warnings of EU fisherman continuing to fish in UK waters at the end of this month.

A 34-page ‘official sensitive’ document on reasonable worst-case scenarios states: ‘EU and UK fishers could clash over the lost access to historic fishing grounds, and there could be a significant uplift in illegal fishing activities.’

The Royal Navy has drawn up a range of enforcement measures to protect the UK’s status as an ‘independent coastal state’.

Its four vessels would be deployed ‘when it gets feisty’, government sources said.

It is understood the Navy is preparing to deploy two Batch 1 vessels and two Batch 2 vessels, which are almost 300ft in length and weigh 2,000 tons. 

The Batch 1 vessels are equipped with 20mm cannons and 7.62mm machine guns. The Batch 2s have 30mm MK44 Bushmaster cannons.

Ursula von der Leyen, pictured alongside Angela Merkel and Charles Michel, told European leaders at a meeting of the European Council that there is now a 'higher probability for no deal than deal'

Ursula von der Leyen, pictured alongside Angela Merkel and Charles Michel, told European leaders at a meeting of the European Council that there is now a 'higher probability for no deal than deal'

A Navy source said: ‘It’s highly likely you’ll get a couple of those at sea on New Year’s Day.’

The insider added that requests for assistance would come from other government departments adding: ‘We will lean in to support wherever required.’

A government source said: ‘They’ll be able to support border force and step in when there are boats in our waters that are not compliant and not willing to exit.

‘If there’s a fishing vessel within 12 nautical miles that isn’t willing to leave that is when the Navy will step in’.

As well as providing a physical presence and deterrence, the vessels will be able to inspect vessels if needed. 

The Navy has eight offshore patrol vessels and has sent their crews on courses to learn about fisheries protection. Helicopters could be drafted in to search for groups of vessels.

Mr Gove warned in October that the Navy would be patrolling British waters in the days after the transition period. The Cabinet Office minister said they would ‘make sure no one is abusing their rights when it comes to access to our fishing waters’.

Top brass have put 14,000 personnel on standby to respond to No Deal and help with the rollout of coronavirus vaccines and potential severe weather events.

Norway yesterday said it might close its fishing waters to European and British vessels from January 1. Oslo concluded a bilateral agreement with Britain in October but first wants this to be part of a trilateral deal with the EU.

‘If we do not get a deal by January 1, we will not open Norway’s economic fishing zones to vessels from the EU and Britain,’ said fisheries and seafood minister Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen.

Now it's Le Snub: No Deal on a knife edge, but Macron and Merkel won't take Boris's calls 

By JOHN STEVENS IN LONDON AND JAMES FRANEY IN BRUSSELS FOR THE DAILY MAIL

No deal is now ‘very, very likely’, Boris Johnson last night warned as Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel refused even to speak to him.

The Prime Minister will decide tomorrow whether to lead Britain out of the European Union without a trade deal.

He declared yesterday that leaving without an agreement would be ‘wonderful for the UK and we’d be able to do exactly what we want’. 

Ahead of the looming deadline, it was revealed that the French president and German chancellor have rejected Downing Street’s request to hold emergency talks on the telephone to break the impasse.

No deal is now ¿very, very likely¿, Boris Johnson last night warned as Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel refused even to speak to him. Pictured: Boris Johnson visits Blyth Beach on the way back from a visit to National Renewable Energy Centre on Friday

No deal is now ‘very, very likely’, Boris Johnson last night warned as Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel refused even to speak to him. Pictured: Boris Johnson visits Blyth Beach on the way back from a visit to National Renewable Energy Centre on Friday

As he attended an EU summit yesterday, Emmanuel Macron (pictured in Brussels on Friday) refused to budge on the key issue of fishing quotas as he insisted he is unwilling to ¿give up my share of the cake¿

As he attended an EU summit yesterday, Emmanuel Macron (pictured in Brussels on Friday) refused to budge on the key issue of fishing quotas as he insisted he is unwilling to ‘give up my share of the cake’

Instead, the two most important leaders in Europe have demanded that all negotiations are conducted through officials in Brussels.

As he attended an EU summit yesterday, Mr Macron refused to budge on the key issue of fishing quotas as he insisted he is unwilling to ‘give up my share of the cake’. 

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the assembled leaders she believes there is now a greater chance of No Deal than an agreement.

Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, the UK and EU’s chief negotiators, this morning will continue talks in Brussels as they seek to resolve the two biggest stumbling blocks regarding Britain setting its own standards under a trade deal and fishing quotas.

Up in arms: Emmanuel Macron at the EU summit yesterday 

Ministers were rounded up by Boris Johnson in Downing Street last night to review ‘battle plans’ in case he abandons trade talks tomorrow.

The Prime Minister has taken charge of No Deal preparations and he wants senior officials ready to meet round the clock.

A committee led by Michael Gove has spent the past few weeks ‘war gaming’ different scenarios for leaving the EU without a trade agreement.

From next week it is expected to sit several times a day if negotiations with Brussels fail.

Government departments have begun standing up their No Deal plans, which include the launch of a new 24/7 border operations centre.

The state-of-the-art facility will gather live information on the flow across the border and help the Government and police make rapid decisions.

Even if there is a trade agreement, ministers predict disruption at the border in the New Year that could last months.

French authorities will impose full EU customs and controlled goods checks on all goods.

The Government has admitted there was a possibility of up to 7,000 lorries waiting for two days in tailbacks.

 

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Mr Johnson and Mrs von der Leyen have set a deadline of tomorrow to decide whether there is any point continuing negotiations. It is thought the Prime Minister could fly to Brussels if he believes there is a chance of getting a deal.

The Prime Minister on Thursday said he was willing to go to Paris, Berlin or ‘wherever to try and get this home and get a deal’. 

But an EU official revealed yesterday that Mr Johnson had already been told he must negotiate with the European Commission after he requested a telephone call with Mr Macron and Mrs Merkel on Monday and it was rejected.

On a visit to Blyth in Northumberland yesterday, Mr Johnson admitted he was not hopeful of a breakthrough in the trade talks. 

‘Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work,’ he said.

‘And then there is the whole issue of fish where we’ve got to be able to take back control of our waters. So there is a way to go – we’re hopeful that progress can be made.

‘I’ve got to tell that from where I stand now, here in Blyth, it is looking very, very likely that we will have to go for a solution that I think would be wonderful for the UK, and we’d be able to do exactly what we want from January 1.

‘It obviously would be different from what we’d set out to achieve but I have no doubt this country can get ready and, as I say, come out on World Trade terms.’ 

At a press conference in Brussels yesterday Mrs von der Leyen insisted that under the EU’s proposal the UK would have the right to diverge from its rules, but insisted that measures such as tariffs and quotas would need to be introduced if it led to a competitive advantage.

‘They would remain free. Sovereign, if you wish, to decide what they want to do,’ the Commission president said.

‘We would simply adapt the conditions for access to our market accordingly [to] the decision of the United Kingdom, and this would apply vice versa.’

Asked about her comments, a Downing Street spokesman said: ‘I would say there isn’t anything new here. Because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access. And our position on sovereignty remains unchanged.’

On the issue of fishing, Mrs von der Leyen insisted that European boats had a ‘legitimate expectation’ to maintain access to British waters as they have done for ‘decades, and, sometimes, centuries’.

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte last night called on both sides to find a compromise.

He said: ‘The only thing I can say to ourselves, to our side but also to Boris Johnson, it will be unexplainable to the rest of the world if the UK and Europe are not able to come to a deal. In these times of upheaval.’ 

SIMON WALTERS: How Aussie rules come with a serious health warning for Boris Johnson 

By SIMON WALTERS FOR THE DAILY MAIL

Boris Johnson has a new ploy when asked about the prospect of a No Deal Brexit outcome: He talks about Australia instead.

He did it again yesterday, comparing leaving the EU without a trade agreement as ‘the Australian-style option’.

On Thursday, the Prime Minister said cutting ties with Brussels ‘on Australian terms’ would allow the UK to ‘prosper mightily’ and take advantage of ‘amazing possibilities’.

His justification for calling it the ‘Aussie option’ is because if we leave the EU, as seems increasingly likely, with no trade deal, we will have to trade with it on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms. That is how Australia trades with the EU.

Boris Johnson (pictured ) has a new ploy when asked about the prospect of a No Deal Brexit outcome: He talks about Australia instead

Boris Johnson (pictured ) has a new ploy when asked about the prospect of a No Deal Brexit outcome: He talks about Australia instead

If the British-EU trade talks cannot be rescued, WTO rules will apply to us: British firms will face tariffs on many goods traded with the EU – just like Australia does. 

The thinking of skilled communicator Mr Johnson would appear to be that ‘No Deal’ has a threatening ring and ‘WTO rules’ are dizzyingly complex.

They sound more like some kind of American wrestling circus than a manual on how much we will have pay for Spanish tomatoes.

But former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has poured a bucket of cold water over Mr Johnson’s attempt to give No Deal a sunny Australian makeover. 

He warned the Prime Minister on BBC TV’s Question Time on Thursday to ‘be careful what you wish for’ in using Australia to paint No Deal as attractive.

Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull (pictured) has poured a bucket of cold water over Mr Johnson’s attempt to give No Deal a sunny Australian makeover

Trading with the EU on WTO rules had created ‘very big barriers’ for Australian farmers, said Mr Turnbull, and Britain would face similar problems.

‘It’ll be pretty disappointing, I think you’ll find out,’ said Mr Turnbull, Australian prime minister until 2018.

‘Australians would not regard our trade relationship with Europe as being a satisfactory one. It is not one from a trade point of view that I think Britain would want, frankly. So be careful what you wish for.’

That was why Australia was currently negotiating its own trade deal with Brussels, he added.

Mr Johnson’s critics say comparing a Brexit No Deal to Australia’s trading terms with the EU is misleading.

The thinking of skilled communicator Mr Johnson would appear to be that ¿No Deal¿ has a threatening ring and ¿WTO rules¿ are dizzyingly complex

The thinking of skilled communicator Mr Johnson would appear to be that ‘No Deal’ has a threatening ring and ‘WTO rules’ are dizzyingly complex

They point out that the UK trades more than half its goods with the EU, compared with just 11 per cent for Australia; and the UK is 20 miles from continental Europe: Australia is on the other side of the world. 

It is not the first time Mr Johnson has presented Australia as a template for his Brexit policies. He won the EU referendum in 2016 by promising to slash immigration with a new ‘Australian-style points-based system’.

Cynics said his argument had little to do with the merits of a points-based system for immigration. 

The UK has had one for non-EU immigrants since 2007, they pointed out; and in Australia, the points-based system was not devised to keep numbers down.

The Prime Minister’s detractors said it was because focus group research in recent years has showed that Britons have an overwhelmingly positive view of Australia, the land of golden beaches, cricket and kangaroos – and being tough on immigration.

They are said to think of TV film of asylum seekers in Australia being put in camps on remote Pacific islands – even though that has nothing to do with its points-based immigration system.

They view Australia as a predominantly white country, whereas in fact the number of Australians born abroad, including many from ethnic minorities, has risen sharply in recent years. 

Not all Australians are as gloomy as Mr Turnbull about Britain’s post Brexit fate under WTO rules.

Tony Abbott, Australian prime minister from 2013 to 2015 and now a UK trade envoy, maintains we have nothing to worry about. 

‘Let me reassure anyone in Britain anxious about the prospect of No Deal, that Australia does $100billion worth of trade with the EU every year, on this very basis,’ he has said.

We may find out the truth about an ‘Aussie rules’ Brexit in 20 days.

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https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMigAFodHRwczovL3d3dy5kYWlseW1haWwuY28udWsvbmV3cy9hcnRpY2xlLTkwNDQ4NzMvUm95YWwtTmF2eS12ZXNzZWxzLWRpc3BhdGNoZWQtZ3VhcmQtQnJpdGFpbnMtZmlzaGluZy13YXRlcnMtTm8tRGVhbC1CcmV4aXQuaHRtbNIBhAFodHRwczovL3d3dy5kYWlseW1haWwuY28udWsvbmV3cy9hcnRpY2xlLTkwNDQ4NzMvYW1wL1JveWFsLU5hdnktdmVzc2Vscy1kaXNwYXRjaGVkLWd1YXJkLUJyaXRhaW5zLWZpc2hpbmctd2F0ZXJzLU5vLURlYWwtQnJleGl0Lmh0bWw?oc=5

2020-12-11 22:00:00Z
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