Babak Belurs

Kamis, 10 Desember 2020

Brexit: 'Strong possibility' of no trade deal with EU - PM - BBC News

Boris Johnson says there is a "strong possibility" the UK will fail to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.

Speaking for the first time since a crunch meeting in Brussels, the PM said "now is the time" for firms and people to prepare for a no deal outcome.

Talks continue between the two sides, but Mr Johnson said they were "not yet there at all" in securing a deal.

Time is running out to reach an agreement before the UK stops following EU trade rules on 31 December.

Weeks of intensive talks between officials have failed to overcome obstacles in key areas, including competition rules and fishing rights.

Mr Johnson met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, but the pair failed to make a breakthrough.

Mr Johnson pledged British negotiators, who earlier resumed talks with their EU counterparts in Brussels, would "go the extra mile" to reach a deal.

But he said the EU wanted to keep the UK "locked" into its legal system, or face punishments such as taxes on imports, which had "made things much more difficult".

The PM added that the EU's proposals would mean, despite leaving the bloc earlier this year, the UK would be forced to remain a "twin" of the 27-country organisation.

"At the moment, I have to tell you in all candour, the treaty is not there yet and that was the strong view of our cabinet," he said.

Brexit - The basics

Brexit happened but rules didn't change at once: The UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020, but leaders needed time to negotiate a deal for life afterwards - they got 11 months.
Talks are happening: The UK and the EU have until 31 December 2020 to agree a trade deal as well as other things, such as fishing rights.
If there is no deal: Border checks and taxes will be introduced for goods travelling between the UK and the EU. But deal or no deal, we will still see changes.

But Mr Johnson said that "looking at where we are," it was vital the UK prepares for the "Australian-style option" of not having a free trade deal with the EU.

"There's a strong possibility that we will have a solution much more like Australian relationship with the EU than a Canadian relationship with the EU," he said.

Australia is negotiating a free trade deal with the EU but currently does not have one and largely does business with the EU on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

Moving to WTO rules on 31 December could result in tariffs being imposed leading to higher prices for the goods the UK buys and sells from and to the EU, among other changes.

Canada finalised a deal with the EU in 2017.

Mr Johnson said he "tried very hard to make progress" at his dinner with Mrs von der Leyen, but the EU was making things "unnecessarily difficult".

Analysis box by Jonathan Blake, political correspondent

Repeating his words for emphasis, the prime minister could not have been clearer.

Boris Johnson has given the strongest signal yet that he sees a no-deal situation as the most likely outcome from talks with the EU.

That may be a "strong possibility," but still he said the UK would do everything it could to reach an agreement.

He also raised the prospect of talks with other European leaders to unlock the process. Could trips to Paris or Berlin be on the cards?

Mr Johnson insists the EU's demands are unreasonable and making negotiations unnecessarily difficult.

A senior Downing street source indicated the UK had offered new ideas on how to move talks forward at the dinner in Brussels on Wednesday night but they were met with a neutral response.

While Sunday has been agreed as a deadline, both sides seem willing to allow the process to go beyond that if progress has been made.

Meanwhile, the EU has set out the contingency measures it would take in the event of no trade agreement being reached with the UK.

The plans aim to ensure that UK and EU air and road connections still run after the post-Brexit transition period ends on 31 December.

They also allow the possibility of fishing access to each other's waters for up to a year, or until an agreement is reached.

'Balance of fairness'

Earlier, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it was "unlikely" the negotiations would be extended beyond Sunday, when the two sides have promised a final decision.

Meanwhile, EU leaders are also meeting in the Belgian capital for a two day-summit of their own, although Brexit will not be the main focus of their discussions.

Arriving at the summit, Mrs von der Leyen said the conditions for a trade deal would have to be "fair for our workers and our companies."

"This fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far," she said, adding that a decision would be taken on Sunday.

Before the PM's remarks, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer urged Mr Johnson to "get on and deliver" a deal, adding the outstanding issues "are capable of resolution".

Asked whether his party would back a deal in a vote in the Commons, he said: "We will look at it - and we will act in the national interest."

"But on a straight choice between no deal and deal, then deal is clearly in the national interest," he added.

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2020-12-10 20:59:00Z
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No-deal back on the menu after Johnson’s dinner date turns sour - Financial Times

It was a dinner that was supposed to provide “political impetus” for a post-Brexit trade deal, but Boris Johnson emerged from three hours of desolate talks with Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels with one British official muttering simply: “No deal.”

The omens were bad from the start; from the moment on Wednesday night when Ms von der Leyen, the European Commission president, instructed Mr Johnson, UK prime minister, to put on his face mask, it was clear this was going to be an awkward encounter.

The photo call brought the clash of political cultures into sharp relief: Mr Johnson, the champion of British sovereignty, baggy-suited, hair askew, alongside the sleek figures of Ms von der Leyen and her chief negotiator Michel Barnier, defenders of the EU’s rules-based order.

The jocular menu of scallops and turbot — a none-too-subtle nod to the row over post-Brexit fishing access to UK waters — seemed less amusing as the evening drew on.

British officials claim Mr Johnson had travelled to Brussels hoping to find a compromise in talks that have stalled on a fair competition “level playing field” and fishing rights, but got nowhere. “They didn’t really respond at all,” lamented one person briefed on the dinner.

The UK and EU negotiating teams ahead of their dinner in Brussels on Wednesday night © Andrew Parsons/No 10 Downing Street

A senior EU diplomat directly briefed on the dinner said Mr Johnson had demonstrated no obvious appetite to reach a deal, reproducing old proposals that failed to respect the basic principles of the EU single market.

“It was described as an almost apathetic performance — the clear overall impression from the UK prime minister was that he was not going to compromise because that would be politically too costly,” the diplomat said.

Two officials briefed on the talks said Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen — neither of whom are known for their grasp of the negotiating details — did not engage in a private one-to-one discussion. Mr Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost were in the room throughout.

The result was stalemate. Some British officials railed in vitriolic terms at Mr Barnier and Ms von der Leyen’s refusal to budge and the tension was quickly relayed to the media and diplomats.

Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin admitted the situation was ‘very difficult’ © John Thys/Reuters

The general conclusion, as dawn broke in Brussels and London on Thursday, was that Britain’s post-Brexit transition period will end in an acrimonious divorce, with no trade deal in place. Micheál Martin, Ireland’s prime minister, admitted the situation was “very difficult” while Mr Johnson later warned people to get ready for the “strong possibility” of a no-deal Brexit.

The pound fell more than 1 per cent against the dollar to $1.3246, while the chances of a trade deal before the end of the year slid to 43.4 per cent on the betting platform Smarkets, down from 64.5 per cent on December 7.

In spite of the gloom, there were glimmers of hope that a deal could yet be salvaged — not least because both sides want a deal and Lord Frost and Mr Barnier were instructed to carry on talking in Brussels.

Downing Street said: “The PM does not want to leave any route to a possible deal untested.” Both sides would take stock on Sunday to see if there was any point in the talks continuing.

The issue of fisheries is principally a haggle: the number of years in which EU boats would be guaranteed continued access to UK waters and the amount of fish they can catch. Both sides believe the issue can be resolved.

The main sticking point remains the EU’s insistence on an “evolution mechanism” to make sure that Britain does not undercut the European regulatory model in future, gaining a competitive advantage.

The EU insists that if the UK fails to mirror improved regulations on the continent in future, it should have the right to impose punitive tariffs. Mr Johnson regards this plan as an unacceptable attack on British sovereignty.

But if Mr Johnson rejected a deal on those grounds, the economic rationale would be far from clear.

Mr Johnson appears willing — under a no-deal scenario — to accept damaging tariffs across the whole economy in just three weeks’ time to avoid the theoretical risk of punitive tariffs on some goods under theoretical circumstances at some point in the future.

Jonathan Jones, former head of the government legal service, argued Mr Johnson’s argument that Brexit was all about regaining sovereignty is also flawed.

“The argument about ‘sovereignty’ is fatuous,” he tweeted. “It is sovereignty which gives the UK power to enter into any trade deal (or choose not to). The question is what’s the balance of benefits/obligations. If UK is not prepared to accept ANY obligations, well . . . ”

France’s President Emmanuel Macron with Ursula von der Leyen © Olivier Matthys/Reuters

The evolution mechanism would make it possible for both sides to agree on updating standards. Either side, as a last resort, could curtail access to its market if it could prove the level playing field was no longer assured.

Mr Johnson’s allies thought he had a deal last week on the issue but claim that Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, last Thursday insisted on a tougher mechanism; British officials said it would set a “very low bar” for retaliatory tariffs. They want to reset the negotiating clock to the start of last week.

While the EU side insists it did not table new demands, Mr Johnson’s aides argue the new proposal is overly prescriptive, undermining the country’s sovereign right to design its own regulations and allowing Brussels to “unilaterally whack us” without having to prove any “high level of harm”.

Mr Johnson has specifically criticised the “automatic” nature of such a mechanism, seen by some in Brussels as a hint he might be willing to accept a compromise including some kind of arbitration mechanism.

But as EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday for their quarterly summit, one senior EU diplomat said the mood — as in Downing Street — was increasingly resigned to a “no deal”.

“There is frankly a lack of trust, a lack of energy and a lack of commitment to reach a deal,” the diplomat said. “We’re down to the bottom of our mandate and the aspects of that mandate that protect the EU’s internal market we won’t let go of — we can’t ruin the EU. So what can we do?”

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2020-12-10 19:38:00Z
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Brexit: 'Strong possibility' of no trade deal with EU - PM - BBC News

Boris Johnson says there is a "strong possibility" the UK will fail to strike a post-Brexit trade agreement with the EU.

The prime minister said "now is the time" for businesses and the public to prepare for that outcome, although talks would continue.

He added that negotiations were "not yet there at all".

Time is fast running out to reach a deal before the UK stops following EU trade rules on 31 December.

It comes after Mr Johnson's meeting in Brussels on Wednesday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen failed to make a breakthrough.

Weeks of intensive talks between officials have failed to overcome obstacles in key areas including competition rules and fishing rights.

In his first public comments since Wednesday's meeting, Mr Johnson said British negotiators were going to "go the extra mile," and he was prepared to travel to Paris or Berlin for talks if necessary.

But he said the EU wanted to keep the UK "locked" into its legal system, or face punishments such as taxes on imports, which had "made things much more difficult".

He said the EU's proposals would mean that, despite leaving the bloc earlier this year, the UK would be forced to remain a "twin" of the 27-country organisation.

"At the moment, I have to tell you in all candour the treaty is not there yet and that was the strong view of our cabinet," he said.

Brexit - The basics

Brexit happened but rules didn't change at once: The UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020, but leaders needed time to negotiate a deal for life afterwards - they got 11 months.
Talks are happening: The UK and the EU have until 31 December 2020 to agree a trade deal as well as other things, such as fishing rights.
If there is no deal: Border checks and taxes will be introduced for goods travelling between the UK and the EU. But deal or no deal, we will still see changes.

He added that "looking at where we are," it was vital the UK prepares for the "Australian-style option" of not having a free trade deal with the EU.

"There's a strong possibility that we will have a solution much more like Australian relationship with the EU than a Canadian relationship with the EU," he added.

Australia is currently negotiating a free trade with the EU but currently does not have one and largely does business with the EU on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

Moving to WTO rules on 31 December could result in tariffs being imposed leading to higher prices for the goods the UK buys and sells from and to the EU, among other changes.

Canada finalised a deal with the EU in 2017.

What happens if there's a no-deal Brexit?

The prime minister said he "tried very hard to make progress" at his dinner with Mrs von der Leyen but the EU was making things "unnecessarily difficult".

Meanwhile, the EU has set out the contingency measures it would take in the event of no trade agreement being reached with the UK.

The plans aim to ensure that UK and EU air and road connections still run after the post-Brexit transition period ends on 31 December.

They also allow the possibility of fishing access to each other's waters for up to a year, or until an agreement is reached.

Talks between the UK's chief negotiator Lord Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier resumed on Thursday are continuing in Brussels.

Earlier Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said it was "unlikely" the negotiations would be extended beyond Sunday, when the two sides have promised a final decision.

The UK is understood to have offered fresh proposals on Wednesday night but that did not lead to a breakthrough but a senior Downing street source indicated talks could continue beyond Sunday if progress had been made.

Meanwhile, EU leaders are also meeting in the Belgian capital for a two day-summit of their own, although Brexit will not be the main focus of their discussions.

Arriving at the summit, Mrs von der Leyen said the conditions for a trade deal would have to be "fair for our workers and our companies."

"This fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far," she said, adding that a decision would be taken on Sunday.

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Covid-19 tests for secondary school pupils in parts of London, Kent and Essex - BBC News

Mass testing will be rolled out to secondary school children in the worst-affected areas of London, Kent and Essex, the health secretary has said.

Matt Hancock said "by far" the fastest rise in coronavirus infection rates in these areas was in 11 to 18-year-olds.

This age group in these areas should be tested regardless of symptoms, he said.

"We need to do everything to stop the spread in school-age children now," Mr Hancock said, adding that more details will be set out on Friday.

Speaking at a Downing Street press briefing, Mr Hancock said the government was "particularly concerned" about coronavirus cases in "London, Kent and Essex", which are rising and were often "already high".

He said the government must not wait until the next review of coronavirus measures on 16 December, but must "take targeted action immediately".

Mr Hancock said "in particular" there was a "very specific rise" among the secondary school age group and specifically in north-east London, while the rate among adults in London was "broadly flat".

He said: "We know from experience that a sharp rise in case in younger people can lead to a rise among more vulnerable age groups later."

The mass testing plan will apply to all secondary school-age children in the seven worst-affected boroughs of London, plus parts of Essex that border London and parts of Kent.

Mr Hancock said it was "right" to keep schools open "for education and for public health".

"We are therefore surging mobile testing units and will be working with schools and local authorities to encourage these children and their families to get tested over the coming days," he said.

Mr Hancock said that both PCR (a standard coronavirus test) and lateral flow testing - which takes about half an hour to show a result - would be used.

London and Essex are currently in tier two - the second highest level - meaning there is no household mixing allowed anywhere indoors and the rule of six applies outdoors.

Kent is in tier 3, the highest level.

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2020-12-10 18:31:00Z
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COVID-19: Wales' secondary schools and colleges to move to online learning from Monday - Sky News

All secondary schools and colleges in Wales will move to online learning from Monday, the Welsh education minister has said.

Kirsty Williams said the move, which affects the last week of term, was part of a "national effort to reduce transmission of coronavirus".

And it comes after the country's chief medical officer Dr Frank Atherton advised authorities there was a "deteriorating" public health situation in Wales.

COVID-19 rates have exceeded 370 out of every 100,000 people in the nation, with a test positivity rate of 17%, according to the latest Test Trace Protect data.

The R reproduction number in Wales has increased to 1.27, with the number of infections doubling every 11.7 days.

Almost half of all Welsh schools have registered zero COVID-19 cases since they opened in September.

But Ms Williams admitted schools can contribute to wider social mixing outside the education environment.

"The virus is putting our health service under significant and sustained pressure and it is important we all make a contribution to reduce its transmission," said Ms Williams.

"In his advice to me today, the CMO recommends that a move to online learning should be implemented for secondary school pupils as soon as is practicable.

"I can therefore confirm that a move to online learning should be implemented for secondary school pupils and college students from Monday next week."

Primary schools would be encouraged to stay open as "it is more difficult for primary and special school age children to undertake self-directed learning", she added.

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Huw Powell, head teacher of Mary Immaculate High in Wenvoe, said heads backed the move.

"Like many secondary school head teachers, I welcome the decision to move to home learning next week," he told Wales Online.

"Given our concerns over transmission of the virus in our communities, this will help allay any fears parents may have whilst allowing learning to continue safely."

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2020-12-10 18:33:45Z
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Covid-19 tests for secondary school pupils in parts of London, Kent and Essex - BBC News

Mass testing will be rolled out to secondary school children in the worst-affected areas of London, Kent and Essex, Matt Hancock has said.

The health secretary said "by far" the fastest rise in coronavirus infection rates was among 11-18-year-olds.

He said all children in this age group should get tested, irrespective of whether they had symptoms.

"We need to do everything to stop the spread in school-age children now," Mr Hancock said.

More details would be set out on Friday, he added.

He said the government must not wait until the next review of coronavirus measures, on 16 December but must "take targeted action immediately".

The mass testing plan will apply to all secondary school-age children in the seven worst-affected boroughs of London, plus parts of Essex that border London and parts of Kent.

"We know from experience that a sharp rise in case in younger people can lead to a rise among more vulnerable age groups later," Mr Hancock said.

London and Essex are currently in tier two - the second highest level - meaning there is no household mixing allowed anywhere indoors and the rule of six applies outdoors.

Kent is in tier 3, the highest level.

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COVID-19: London now has highest infection rate in England - Sky News

Coronavirus rates in England are now highest in London, but infections have plateaued nationwide, the latest figures show.

The capital had the highest average infection rate in the country - 191.8 per 100,000 people - for the week of 30 November to 6 December, according to the weekly surveillance survey by Public Health England.

This is up from 158.1 per 100,00 in the previous week, and Sky News understands the capital's MPs will receive a briefing on the situation from health minister Helen Whateley later on Thursday.

Public Health England's latest data shows that cases have increased in 24 of London's 32 boroughs.

Havering, in the east of the capital, had the highest rate in London for the week ending 3 December - 346 per 100,000 people.

Following a meeting of London MPs with health minister Helen Whately on Thursday, they said a decision about moving the capital into Tier 3 would be taken on 16 December, details published the day after and it would come into force from 19 December.

One MP told Sky News: "It was a very clear preparation for Tier 3. I think the decision is pretty much made."

The city's mayor, Sadiq Khan, earli warned people in the city that they risk moving from Tier 2 to Tier 3 restrictions amid the surge in cases.

England's tiered system is due to be reviewed on 16 December, which the government has said could present opportunities for areas to move up or down a tier.

But across the country, PHE data shows coronavirus case rates remained "at a similar level" for the week ending 6 December to what they were the week before.

Case rates have fallen the most in the West Midlands - there the figure is 158.4 per 100,000, down from 196.8 the previous week.

In England, COVID infections were highest among people aged between 40 and 49 and hospital admissions were highest in the North East.

Case numbers fell across Yorkshire and the Humber, but rose in the East and South East of England, according to the figures.

Overall, both acute respiratory infections as a result of the virus and hospital admissions dropped.

The age group admitted to hospital the most frequently was those aged 85 and over.

Commenting on the figures, medical director at Public Health England, Dr Yvonne Doyle, said: "Everyone's sacrifices over the past few weeks means cases have reduced significantly in many parts of the country.

"However, the decline has started to stall and overall, infection rates remain high so we must all stay vigilant."

According to the latest Test and Trace figures for England, 96,415 people tested positive at least once in the week to 2 December.

A total of 91,578 people were put into the system - with 86% reached and asked to provide contacts. This is largely unchanged on 86.1% in the previous week.

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2020-12-10 16:52:30Z
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Kamis, 10 Desember 2020

Brexit - The basics

'Balance of fairness'

Brexit - The basics

More from Covid-19

More from Covid-19