Kamis, 29 Oktober 2020

Where's next for Tier Three? 6MILLION in the West Midlands, North East and West Yorkshire - Daily Mail

Where's next for Tier Three? 6MILLION people living in the West Midlands, North East and West Yorkshire could be dragged into toughest lockdown within days - after Nottinghamshire was slapped with 9pm alcohol sale ban

Means 14million people across England could be living under toughest Covid-controlling curbs by weekend
In the West Midlands, Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton at risk
So are Northumberland, Newcastle, Sunderland, North and South Tyneside, Gateshead and County Durham
In West Yorkshire, move would affect Leeds, Kirklees, Bradford and Halifax - but other parts to go into Tier 2

By Connor Boyd Assistant Health Editor For Mailonline

Published: 11:17 GMT, 29 October 2020 | Updated: 13:05 GMT, 29 October 2020

Six million more people in England are poised to be stung by Tier Three lockdown restrictions this week amid spiralling coronavirus cases, as Number 10 continues to rely on its 'whack-a-mole' strategy to contain the disease.

Residents in the West Midlands, North East and West Yorkshire look set to be the next dragged into the toughest bracket of measures, which bans people from socialising with family or friends and sees pubs forced to shut completely unless they are serving 'substantial meals'.

It means 14million people across England could be living under the toughest coronavirus-controlling curbs by the weekend. Currently there are 8million residents in Tier Three towns, cities and boroughs in Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Lancashire and Nottinghamshire.

Last night, Nottinghamshire was put into a Tier Three lockdown and became the first county to agree to a ban on selling alcohol after 9pm, if booze is bought to consume off premises. There are fears it has set a precedent and that other regions could be forced to comply with restrictions that go above and beyond standard Tier Three measures.

Leaders in West Yorkshire have denied they are in a 'stand-off' with Number 10 over plans to plunge 1.8million people in the region into a Tier Three lockdown. Bradford Councillor Susan Hinchcliffe insisted the crunch talks were not at an impasse, despite rumbling on for three days with little progress.

West Yorkshire is poised for tougher restrictions after routine NHS operations were cancelled at one England's biggest trusts in Leeds when Covid-19 patients on wards reached levels higher than in the April/May peak. Across all of Yorkshire the case rate per 100,000 is 392 compared to the 224 per 100,000 on average for England.

In the West Midlands, Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton - which are already in Tier Two - could all be upgraded to a tougher bracket within days, unless infection rates drop rapidly.

West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and the leaders of the seven metropolitan councils had been discussing the prospect of Tier Three measures ahead of a gold command meeting with Health Secretary Matt Hancock yesterday.

Following the meeting, local authority sources said it was 'pretty unlikely' infection rates would come down enough in the next few days, and that Tier Three would be imposed 'by the end of next week or the start of the following week'. The case rate per 100,000 is 222 in the West Midlands, though Birmingham and its biggest boroughs are seeing rapid growth in infections.

Political leaders in the North East are scheduled to meet on Thursday afternoon to discuss whether the region should be placed in the highest category of measures. The move would affect the Tier 2 boroughs of Northumberland, Newcastle, Sunderland, North and South Tyneside, Gateshead and County Durham.

Despite the North East having a case rate of 303.5 per 100,000 in the last seven days, leaders there have claim cases have already started to stabilised and say the NHS locally could cope.

Scientists have warned the second wave of coronavirus could result in 85,000 deaths, almost double the number of victims from the first epidemic

Bradford Labour councillor Susan Hinchcliffe and other leaders in West Yorkshire have refused to accept the harshest bracket of lockdown until they are given assurances about what support would be offered to businesses.

But she said the 'unflinching' Government had told council leaders it would be a 'template package' with no room for negotiation.

Ms Hinchcliffe, who is also the chairwoman of the West Yorkshire Combined Authority, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning she would not describe it as a 'stand-off'.

Ministers confirm ALL of Nottinghamshire will enter Tier 3 from Friday with shops banned from selling alcohol after 9pm, beauty salons ordered to shut and shisha banned

Ministers last night confirmed all of Nottinghamshire will enter Tier Three from Friday, with off-licences banned from selling alcohol after 9pm, beauty salons ordered to shut and shisha banned.

Number 10 said Nottinghamshire will be dragged into the toughest bracket to fight its growing outbreak, which has forced hospitals to start cancelling cancer operations to make space of Covid-19 patients. Around 1.2million people living in the county will fall under the harshest lockdown, after four of eight local authorities initially escaped the most stringent restrictions.

Local officials have agreed to adopt a series of other tougher measures on top of the standard Tier Three measures, including shutting down cafes, restaurants and social clubs that don't serve 'substantial' meals. Betting shops, car boot sales and auction houses must also close.

Across the entire county, alcohol sales will be banned after 9pm if booze is bought to consume off premises. Alcohol can, however, still be purchased in pubs and bars alongside a substantial meal up until 10pm. Tattoo parlours, tanning and nail salons, piercing services and saunas must close — but all hairdressers, barber salons, cinemas, theatres, ice skating rinks can remain open, under the improvised rules.

Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said: 'We have seen infection rates rising sharply across Nottinghamshire, and in close collaboration with local leaders we have agreed on a package of local measures to stop this virus in its tracks.

'I understand how difficult life is under these restrictions and the impact they have on families and businesses, but we never take these decisions lightly.'

She added it was unclear what support would be offered to businesses in the event of a move to the higher tier but the Government had told council leaders it would be a 'template package' with no room for negotiation.

She said: 'It is clear from our conversations so far that Government are unflinching in their resolve to put Bradford and West Yorkshire into Tier 3. Our local residents and our local businesses need certainty about whether we are going into Tier Three or not.'

Labour MP for Batley and Spen, Tracy Brabin said on Twitter: 'There is a lack of transparency from the Government about how we enter/exit Tier 3, and it is unfair on every person living in West Yorkshire to be left in the dark on this. I have been pushing the Government to show us that they are following the science.'

The political debate is taking place against a backdrop of dramatically rising hospital admissions for Covid-19 with NHS figures showing the Yorkshire and Humber region with the fastest growing rates in the England.

Earlier this week, the trust which runs Leeds General Infirmary and St James's Hospital said only essential operations will go ahead after the number of Covid-19 patients being treated went beyond the number treated at the peak of the virus's first wave. Other hospitals, including Bradford Royal Infirmary, have reported similarly high figures.

The latest official statement on the talks from the West Yorkshire Combined Authority, issued on Wednesday evening, said: 'The latest data on infections and hospital admissions shows a continued rise, and we have repeated our calls to Government that further local action needs to be taken, including strengthening community engagement and test and trace.

'There will be further discussions with Government in the coming days. We are absolutely committed to implementing the most effective measures to protect the people and economy of West Yorkshire.'

Meanwhile, political leaders in the North East said they will 'resist any attempt' by the Government to force a Tier Three lockdown on the region.

Council chiefs and business figures say infection rates are levelling off under the current Tier Two rules. In a statement on Monday, the local authority leaders said: 'We are also continuing to lobby for additional support for all those businesses doing their utmost to operate in a Covid-secure manner in these difficult times without the need to move to tier three.

'We will carry on making the case for a more localised approach to test and trace, allowing us to capitalise on local expertise and knowledge of our communities, and work closely with the police to call for greater resource and support to enforce the guidance.

'We do not want to see harsher restrictions imposed on our residents by tier three and will resist any attempt by government to do so. This would have an even greater impact on our economy and our wellbeing.'

It comes as Birmingham and the West Midlands looks set to move into Tier 3 'within days' amid rapidly filling intensive care beds and rising cases

Mayor Andy Street and council leaders - including Birmingham's Councillor Ian Ward - are involved in behind closed doors talks to make sure a full package of support measures and financial backing is in place for affected businesses before the measures come into force.

Mr Ward told Birmingham Live today: 'Case rate numbers are going up, and we have to do something more. We will be moving into Tier 3.'

The city's case rate is now above 250 cases per 100,000 people and there are now more than 300 patients with coronavirus in hospital beds at University Hospitals Birmingham, including 34 in ICU.

It comes after ministers last night confirmed all of Nottinghamshire will enter Tier Three from Friday, with off-licences banned from selling alcohol after 9pm, beauty salons ordered to shut and shisha banned.

'I understand how difficult life is under these restrictions and the impact they have on families and businesses, but we never take these decisions lightly.'

Elsewhere, Bristol sparked confusion by designing its own Tier One Plus level. The move — the first of its kind — will see eight Covid-19 marshals on the street to ensure compliance with national measures, more support for test and trace and messaging to encourage people to stick to the rules.

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2020-10-29 11:17:00Z
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Labour Party broke law by failing to handle antisemitism complaints, report concludes - Sky News

The Labour Party broke the law in its failure to handle antisemitism complaints and there were "serious failings" by its leadership, the equalities watchdog has concluded.

An investigation into anti-Semitism in the party by the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) found it responsible for "unlawful acts of harassment and discrimination" and said there was political interference into complaints.

It said Labour broke the law in three areas: political interference in antisemitism complaints, failure to provide adequate training to those handling antisemitism complaints and harassment of those who complained.

An unlawful act notice has been served to the party following the findings, which means the commission can recommend any necessary action to avoid the actions being repeated or continued.

Labour has until 10 December to draft an action plan to implement the report's recommendations, which is legally enforceable by the courts if not fulfilled.

The investigation found evidence of 23 instances of "political interference" by then leader Jeremy Corbyn's office and others in the antisemitism complaints process, out of the 70 files the watchdog looked at.

EHRC lead investigator Alasdair Henderson said the blame cannot be placed on one person, adding that "it went beyond the role of Jeremy Corbyn", but he acknowledged the period they looked at "was of course during the time when Jeremy Corbyn was leader".

"And as leader of the party, and with evidence of political interference from within his office, he does have a responsibility ultimately for those failings," he said.

The former leader accepted the report but said the scale of the problem was not as large as stated.

Mr Henderson rejected that, saying there were "two specific unlawful acts" and 18 more in the sample given to the EHRC, saying "that's the tip of the iceberg".

The watchdog highlighted the actions of former London mayor Ken Livingstone, who referenced social media posts by MP Naz Shah, including a graphic suggesting Israel should be relocated to the US with the caption "problem solved", and a post in which she appeared to liken Israeli policies to Hitler's. Mr Livingstone repeatedly denied they were antisemitic.

Rossendale Labour councillor Pam Bromley was also highlighted for her Facebook post saying "fake accusations of antisemitism to undermine Labour just aren't working" and another post saying Mr Corbyn has failed "to repel the fake accusations of antisemitism in the Labour Party".

Caroline Waters, interim chair of the EHRC, said the failures were "inexcusable and appeared to be a result of a lack of willingness to tackle antisemitism rather than an inability to do so".

The report has been welcomed by the Campaign Against Antisemitism, who initially complained to the EHRC about antisemitism within the Labour Party, with its chair, Gideon Falter, calling it "groundbreaking".

"It is the first ever finding by the EHRC of unlawful acts. It heavily criticises the Labour Party's former leadership," he said.

"The EHRC's report utterly vindicates Britain's Jews who were accused of lying and exaggerating, acting as agents of another country and using their religion to 'smear' the Labour Party."

He added that the report shows under Mr Corbyn's leadership "the Labour Party became institutionally antisemitic" and said it "drove almost half of British Jews to consider leaving the country".

Reacting to the report, Mr Corbyn said Jewish Labour members were right to expect the party to deal with antisemitism "and I regret that it took longer to deliver that change than it should".

But, he added: "The scale of the problem was also dramatically overstated for political reasons by our opponents inside and outside the party."

Current Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called the report "thoroughly professional" and said its conclusions are "clear and stark", adding that he will implement all recommendations "in full".

He said he found the report "hard to read" and said it was "a day of shame for the Labour Party".

"I am truly sorry for all the pain and grief that has been caused to Jewish people, JLM, to the people driven out of our party, and those driven out of parliament - Louise Ellman and Luciana Berger we are sorry.

"I can promise you this, I will act. Never again will Labour let you down, never again will we fail to tackle antisemitism.

"And if - after all the pain, all the grief, and all the evidence in this report, there are still those who think there's no problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party. That it's all exaggerated, or a factional attack.

"Then, frankly, you are part of the problem too. And you should be nowhere near the Labour Party either."

He said a zero tolerance policy to antisemitism "really does mean that" under his leadership.

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2020-10-29 10:49:02Z
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Met Office issues 'danger to life' weather warning across Scotland - Daily Record

The Met Office has issued a "danger to life" weather warning across Scotland today, with a further warning issued for the weekend.

Torrential rain and the potential for flooding in areas up and down the country are being forecast.

The yellow alert has been in place since 9am this morning (Thursday) and will continue until 11.59pm tonight.

A brief period of respite is expected on Friday, thought heavy rain is still expected, and the weather warnings will come back into force on Saturday morning at 6am and last until 11.59pm on Sunday.

Unsettled conditions are expected to descend on Scotland this weekend (Image: Getty Images)

The alert covering Thursday has been issued for Dumfries and Galloway and parts of Lothian and the Borders, as well as Strathclyde regions.

A Met Office forecast predicts: "Periods of heavy rain are expected to develop across Southwest Scotland on Thursday morning and through the afternoon.

"Accumulations of 40-50 mm are possible, especially across the Galloway hills and hills of North Ayrshire. The rain will gradually ease through the evening."

The weekend warnings cover most of the country, taking in Central, Tayside & Fife, Highlands & Eilean Siar, South West Scotland, Lothian Borders and Strathclyde.

Coronavirus: London's R rate is worst in England and could be as high as 3, Government study claims - Daily Mail

London's R rate 'is the worst in England' and could be as high as 3: Government-run Covid-19 surveillance study claims the capital's outbreak is doubling every 72 hours

Imperial College London study suggests the R rate of the virus in London is 2.86, the highest in England
It claims numbers of infected people were doubling every 3.3 days between October 16 and October 25
The city is in a Tier Two local lockdown, meaning people are banned from meeting indoors with others

By Sam Blanchard Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline

Published: 10:13 GMT, 29 October 2020 | Updated: 11:29 GMT, 29 October 2020

Coronavirus is spreading fastest in London, according to a study that claims the R rate in the capital is almost as high as three and infections are doubling every three days.

Researchers at Imperial College London, who today estimated a staggering 100,000 people are catching Covid-19 every day across the country, warned the city has a 'scary' rate of spread. For comparison, the experts claimed the national R rate is around 1.6 and cases are doubling every nine days.

They predicted the R rate — the average number of people each carrier infects — is higher than two in London, the South East, East and South West, which have mostly escaped any tough local lockdowns.

And of the entire south of England, London has the highest prevalence of coronavirus at 0.89 per cent, suggesting more than 80,000 of the city's nine million residents were infected at any given moment.

Academics claimed the R rate in London may be 2.86, meaning those 80,000 people carrying the virus at the time of the study could be expected to infect another 229,000. The possible range of the rate — which must stay below if an outbreak is to shrink — is between 1.47 and 4.87, they estimated.

The entire city is in a Tier Two local lockdown, meaning people are banned from meeting indoors with anyone they don't live with, except at work. Infection rates vary across the 32 different boroughs – from 223 positive tests per 100,000 people in Ealing over the most recent week, to 103 per 100,000 in Lewisham.

Scientists behind Imperial's study, funded by the government, came out in favour of a national lockdown, which has now been adopted in France for a second time, and said the results show that current social distancing rules aren't doing enough; Britain, they said, should 'think about changing the approach'.

The study found that the virus' reproduction 'R' rate - the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects - was 1.6 across England in the most recent week, compared to 1.16 in the previous round. The R is thought to be hovering between 1 and 1.5 in the north and greater than two in the South East and South West. In London it's estimated to be nearly three

Scientists say the coronavirus spreading faster in London than anywhere else in England. The capital currently has Tier Two lockdown rules which ban people from socialising indoors

HOW DO R RATES DIFFER ACROSS ENGLAND?

The REACT study by Imperial College London estimates England's regional R rates between October 15 and 26 to be as follows:

Region

South East

North East

North West

Yorkshire & Hbr.

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South West

R rate

2.34

0.57

1.21

1.54

1.4

1.81

2.18

2.86

2.06

Doubling time

4.3 days

-8.8 days, halving

22.6 days

9.2 days

12.1 days

6.5 days

4.7 days

3.3 days

5.2 days

'I think what our study shows is there would be genuine benefits to some kind of national policy,' Professor Steven Riley, an infectious diseases expert at Imperial College told Radio 4's Today this morning.

'We could prevent the pattern in the South turning into the current pattern in the North and bring about a reversal in the North as quickly as possible.

'If we're going to end up using those restrictions that have been brought in elsewhere in Europe today and yesterday... we should think about timing. And sooner is better than later for these.

'There has to be a change. The rate of growth that we're seeing in these data is really quite rapid, so one way or another there has to be a change before Christmas.

'We've fairly reliably measured a slight decrease in R in our interim round five [the last part of the study]; now we have measured a slight increase in R, and the slight increase in R means that current measures are not sufficient.'

The research was based on 85,971 swab tests done across England between October 15 and 26, of which 863 were positive. Using this information the researchers calculated around 1.28 per cent of the population is infected.

Rates of positive tests in London show some boroughs have comparable numbers of infections per person than the national average – 230 positive tests per 100,000 people in the week ending October 23 – while others have fewer than half as many.

Ealing, Hammersmith and Fulham and Kingston upon Thames, all in the west of the city, have rates higher than 200 cases per 100,000 – but none have as many as England as a whole.

Croydon, Greenwich and Lewisham, in the south and east of the city, have fewer than half as many cases as the national average, however, with a per-person rate lower than 115 per 100,000.

The city was lumped under the same rules because, Mayor Sadiq Khan said, the population moves around so much that it would be too difficult to try and separate them.

Higher R rates were found across the southern regions of England, which have not faced as many local lockdowns as the Midlands and the North.

Northern areas with tighter restrictions - such as bans on socialising or tougher rules on travelling and going out to eat or drink - have seen their R rates fall because people do not come into contact with one another as much as they do in other areas. Although southern regions have higher R rates, cases are still lower so the outbreak remains worse in the North – the two measures must be considered side-by-side.

London and parts of Essex are in Tier Two restrictions but the majority of the East, South West and South East face only national social distancing rules and are allowed to socialise in groups of six.

Meanwhile, the R rates are lowest in the North West and North East, where millions of people are living under strict rules to contain outbreaks.

The North East, which includes Newcastle and Middlesbrough, is the only place in the country where the outbreak is shrinking, with an estimated R of 0.57, the team calculated.

In a bid to control the virus in London, which was struck by disaster in the first wave of the epidemic in the spring, the Metropolitan Police has said it is sending out extra patrols to enforce social distancing laws.

The Met has sent extra officers to the badly-hit boroughs of Hammersmith and Fulham and Hackney to conduct extra patrols in the worst-affected areas in the capital to help clamp down on breaches of regulations.

The study also found prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72 per cent, up from 0.84 per cent the week before. This was followed by the North West at 2.27 per cent, up from 1.21 per cent. Prevalence was lowest in East of England at 0.55 per cent, up from 0.29 per cent

The REACT-1 study - commissioned by the Department of Health - has been swabbing tens of thousands of people since summer. The latest findings from the most recent phase (round six, in dark blue) show increases in transmission in every region of England

POLICE ANNOUNCE A CRACKDOWN ON LONDON'S WORST-HIT BOROUGHS

The Metropolitan Police have deployed extra officers to Hammersmith and Fulham and Hackney as the Government tries to control those boroughs with the highest rates of coronavirus transmission.

As the nation continues to grapple with the pandemic, officers will conduct extra patrols in the worst-affected areas in the capital to help clampdown on breaches of the regulations.

It comes as data released by the National Police Chief's Council today revealed around two-thirds of coronavirus fines have been handed to those under the age of 35.

Under the new clampdown, officers will target those making the most 'deliberate, dangerous or flagrant of breaches' and who risk putting others lives in danger.

Also among the worst-affected areas in the capital are Ealing, Kingston Upon Thames, Redbridge, Hounslow, Hillingdon and Tower Hamlets.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Matt Twist, the Met's lead for Covid-19 response, said: 'This approach does not mean that other areas of London will see a reduction in existing patrols to clamp down on rule breaking.

'However, in those areas of London where the transmission rate is at its highest, we will be doing our part to help shut down reckless breaches of the regulations.

'I know the vast majority of Londoners are sticking to the rules which are designed to keep everyone in our communities safe. But, there is a small minority who have a disregard for the health of our communities and it is those individuals who we will be targeting with these new patrols.

'We have been, and continue to listen to our communities and explain to them our policing approach, and have been regularly reviewing our deployment plan according to the latest infection rates by PHE.'

It comes as data released by the National Police Chief's Council today revealed around two-thirds of coronavirus fines have been handed to those under the age of 35.

Under the new clampdown, officers will target those making the most 'deliberate, dangerous or flagrant of breaches' and who risk putting others lives in danger.

Also among the worst-affected areas in the capital are Ealing, Kingston Upon Thames, Redbridge, Hounslow, Hillingdon and Tower Hamlets.

'However, in those areas of London where the transmission rate is at its highest, we will be doing our part to help shut down reckless breaches of the regulations.

'This remains under constant assessment and where we see an increase in reported cases we adapt our response to reflect that.

'Extra patrols have, this week, been deployed to Hammersmith and Fulham and Hackney, and we will continue to monitor the reported cases to ensure we are doing all we can, working with our communities, to tackle the further spread of this disease.

'We are now approaching the Halloween weekend; another significant date in the annual calendar for celebrating, which is going to be different this year with parties unable to go ahead as normal.

'As much as the restrictions may seem disheartening, we want to remind people that they are in place for an important reason, to keep everyone safe.'

The REACT-1 study that produced the worrying statistics about London also estimated there were around 96,000 people getting infected every day in England by October 25.

The experts behind the research warned cases were just weeks away from surpassing levels seen during the darkest days of the pandemic in March and April. Previous projections have estimated there were slightly more than 100,000 daily cases in spring, which led to over 40,000 deaths in the first wave.

Researchers sent swabs to 85,971 volunteers in England between October 16 and October 25. In total, 863 were positive (1.28 per cent) - more than double the 0.6 per cent the week before. Pictured: How cases have surged since summer, according to findings from all six phases of the study

Rates of the disease also increased across all age groups, with the greatest rise in those aged 55-64 at 1.20 per cent, up three-fold from 0.37 per cent in a week. In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81 per cent, having doubled from 0.35 per cent. Rates remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25 per cent

The study warned infections are doubling every nine days, suggesting there could be 200,000 daily cases by the first week of November.

Imperial researchers said it was possible that the recent wet and dreary weather had played a role in the surge in infections, by driving people indoors where the virus spreads more quickly. But they warned it was more likely a small dip in adherence to social distancing rules across the board had opened the door for the highly infectious disease to spread more rapidly.

Imperial's best guess is that 1.3 per cent of everyone living in England was carrying the disease by October 25, the equivalent of one in 75, or 730,000 people. Covid-19 prevalence was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber (2.7 per cent) and the North West (2.3 per cent).

The study, which will likely be used to pile more pressure on No10 to impose a national lockdown, also estimated the virus' reproduction 'R' rate was around 1.6 across England in the most recent week, compared to 1.16 in the previous round. Experts have repeatedly warned it is critical the reproduction rate stays below the level of one to prevent cases from spiralling.

It comes after another 310 Covid-19 victims were recorded last night and 367 the day before, in the highest daily toll since the end of May. But the 26,688 infections reported yesterday was actually the first week-on-week fall in a month — though the central testing programme is missing asymptomatic and mild cases of the virus, which make up the vast majority of infections.

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2020-10-29 10:13:00Z
52781149501380

Crawley stabbing: Girl, 14, arrested on suspicion of murder - BBC News

Sussex traffic and travel: Thursday, 29
External
Hastings Observer

Information about BBC links to other news sites

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2020-10-29 07:23:00Z
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Rabu, 28 Oktober 2020

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - BBC News

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day

By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent

Published: 43 minutes ago

Analysis: Stark picture of a challenging winter

This study paints a stark picture of where we are and where we could be heading.

If there was no change in the reported nine-day doubling time, there would be more than a million infections a day by the end of November.

That is a considerable "if", but it demonstrates the threat posed by the virus if it is allowed to grow exponentially.

Somehow, we have to navigate a challenging winter, balancing the virus and the cost of restrictions.

France and Germany have turned to forms of lockdown, albeit not as severe as those endured earlier in the year. The government here is sticking to its regional strategy.

But the hardest fact to digest today may be that it is still only October.

Spring, when hopefully the weather and vaccine will make the virus easier to control, is still a long way away.

Prof Paul Elliott, another report author, said "we're at a critical period in the second wave" and that higher cases "will lead to more hospitalisations and loss of life".

He said we have to cut the number of people we interact with to curb the spread of the virus.

The government is still hoping its local, targeted restrictions will work, allowing more of the economy to stay open in areas where the virus is less prevalent, according to BBC political correspondent Nick Eardley.

But it has also been at pains to say it is ruling nothing out if the virus is out of control - including nationwide measures, he added.

Government statistics show 45,675 people have died of coronavirus, up 310 in the past 24 hours, total number of confirmed cases is now 942,275, up 24,701 and hospital admissions are now 160,784, up 1,227 in the past 24 hours, updated 28 Oct

It comes after the environment secretary said "it's too early to say" what Covid rules will be in place by Christmas.

George Eustice warned people "may not be able to get together in the larger groups that they normally would".

The government's coronavirus dashboard reported a 310 further deaths across the UK on Wednesday.

But there were glimmers of hope in the report. Cases in the north east of England are still growing, but much more slowly than before.

And in the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber, the number of 18-24 year olds catching the virus is starting to fall, although it is rising in older age groups.

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Commenting on the data, Prof Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia told BBC News: "It's going to be a really difficult winter."

"Even if we're not there now, we'll have surpassed the peak in a week or two unless some miracle happens, but I'm not betting on it," he said.

"The death rate, though, is substantially lower than it was as more young people are affected and we have better treatments."

Prof Igor Rudan, from the University of Edinburgh, said the React-1 study should be considered "very accurate and reliable scientific evidence that shows that a very large second wave" is under way.

"It will inevitably lead to a very large number of infections, severe episodes and deaths in the coming weeks and months," he said.

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2020-10-29 01:03:00Z
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Babak Belurs

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