PM Boris Johnson has warned things will be "bumpy to Christmas and beyond".
The second wave is spreading across the country, the fight over Greater Manchester's future shows no signs of dying down - but if we can get through a "difficult" Christmas, there could be good news ahead.
Posturing and positioning
For Michael Gove, the resistance of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to his city being put under a stricter local lockdown is "posturing" and "political positioning".
Mr Gove said: "I want to reach an agreement with the political leadership, I want them to put aside for a moment some of the political positioning that they've indulged in and I want them to work with us in order to ensure that we save lives and protect the NHS."
The row centres on Mr Burnham's demand for more financial support before he and regional leaders will agree to the Greater Manchester being put under Tier 3 restrictions.
Contrary to some of the government's rhetoric, resistance has come from regional MPs and council leaders from both Labour and their own party, including Conservative backbencher shop steward Sir Graham Brady.
The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster's words may go down about as well as a recent call for action from 20 non-Mancunian Conservatives, which was described variously as "deeply disappointing" and "neither wanted nor helpful" by local Conservative MPs.
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There is one area where more money may yet be produced. Mr Gove said the level of financial support for those told to isolate is "always" kept "under review" - and failed to rule out an increase.
But he also delivered a categorical "no" to the idea of a two-week national "circuit breaker" lockdown as proposed by Labour - meaning the row over regional restrictions seems set to run and run.
Labour support more Manchester restrictions
Labour's begrudging support for the government (money permitting) continued this week as Kate Green said extra restrictions were needed in Manchester - so long as the region got "an extra package of support".
The shadow education secretary backed the call for a short national lockdown, but admitted Manchester faced "an absolute public health emergency" and "it's important that measures are taken really swiftly".
Asked if that meant Tier 3, she confirmed "it's a yes but my preference is that Labour's call, as you know, is for a national circuit breaker because we think in the long run that will be more effective".
Vaccine in three to six months
The idea of a quick lockdown was backed by SAGE member and Wellcome Trust director Sir Jeremy Farrar, who said "it's never too late" but "the best time to do this would have been around the 20 September as SAGE advised".
It was on vaccines that he had more cheering predictions though, saying the UK has a portfolio of vaccines and "more than one, I'm sure, will come through in the first quarter of next year".
The prediction that "within three to six months we will start to have vaccines and treatments available" will come as welcome relief, though it matches neatly with a more unhappy timeframe.
It's fairly clear that winter, with its potential for cold temperatures and disobedience aiding the virus, is a serious source of concern to the government - witness the recent dire warnings about students staying in their university halls over the festive season.
Sir Jeremy said: "Christmas will be tough this year. I don't think Christmas is going to be the usual celebration it is and all families coming together, I'm afraid. I wish we could say it was but I think we have to be honest and say that we are in for three to six months of a very, very difficult period."
A much better chance of surviving
Catching the virus is still a deeply alarming prospect for many (though given the numbers of those complying with the rules, perhaps not as alarming as hoped) and more good news came from Alison Pittard.
The dean of the Faculty of Intensive Medicine said "there is no doubt" that those who are hospitalised with the virus, especially those in intensive care, now have a "much better chance of surviving" than at the start of the year.
She said a "combination of things" - including giving air to patients without using invasive ventilators, learning to treat patients earlier, and the fact that "most intensive care units would have been back to their normal staffing ratio" - meant "we were better able to provide the same standard of care that we normally do".
There was a clear warning though, perhaps with an eye to the crowds in post-curfew streets, that "although the majority of people still who become infected will have a very, very minor illness or may not even know that they are ill at all, for those people who require hospital admission, for those that come to intensive care, it is still a very severe disease".
For those who've met people unpersuaded of the nature of the disease, she added: "If you end up in critical care with COVID pneumonia, you are almost twice as likely to die than somebody who is admitted with pneumonia not due to COVID."
Hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk
"Hundreds of thousands of jobs" are at risk without clarity from the government on coronavirus restrictions, according to the British Chamber of Commerce, which has written to the prime minister demanding more financial assistance for businesses under local lockdowns.
Director general Adam Marshall told the show: "We hear from businesses all the time who say to us if I am closed down again, I will not reopen, with the consequences that that has for their employees because companies aren't like light switches, you can't simply switch them on and off repeatedly and they go back to normal as if nothing happened.
"I think that message needs to get through more strongly to our political leaders."
The message was clear as Mr Marshall warned "every additional restriction that comes in, every new local lockdown, means less demand in our businesses, more companies forced to shut their doors and, quite simply, not enough support for those who find themselves in difficult situations".
P.S.
Brexit has been back this week with something of a vengeance, but with economic damage from no deal (rebranded as an "Australian style deal") likely hard to disentangle from coronavirus (and Conservative MPs engaged in an entirely different argument with the government), it's no longer drawing attention as it once did.
Michael Gove insisted on the show that the government was still pursuing a deal - but in keeping with the tough noises coming out of Downing Street, said the EU needed "a change in approach" and that the chances of a deal were markedly less than 66%.
The jobs crisis caused by coronavirus is set to hit up to one million young people within weeks, creating a 'Covid generation' who will struggle to find work, according to new research.
Leading labour market expert Paul Gregg, professor of economics and social policy at Bath University, claimed almost one million 16 to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment will struggle to find work when the furlough scheme ends this month.
The study, which will be published on Monday, said young people will face bleak prospects unless more support is offered.
It comes amid increasing tensions between the Government and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, over Westminster's attempts to impose Tier 3 restrictions on northern regions.
Mr Burnham is set to call for parliament to intervene to break the deadlock by creating a system of support for young people.
On Sunday, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown also weighed in on the debate by warning that there is a 'hidden army of young people who desperately need our help'.
The jobs crisis caused by coronavirus is set to hit up to one million young people within weeks, creating a 'Covid generation' who will struggle to find work, according to new research. Pictured: Chancellor Rishi Sunak
Leading labour market expert Paul Gregg, professor of economics and social policy at Bath University, claimed almost one million 16 to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment will struggle to find work when the furlough scheme ends this month. Pictured: A young person walks past a closed shop in Manchester
Launching the Alliance for Full Employment, he said the country could not afford 'another lost generation as we had in the 1980s.'
The furlough scheme, introduced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, paid employees 80 per cent of their wages while they were unable to work during the coronavirus lockdown and was designed to ensure their employers did not lay them off.
Mr Gregg's study, reported by The Guardian, claims that the end of the furlough support scheme, the scarcity of new job openings and the arrival of school and college leavers into the employment market will present young people with terrible prospects unless more support is forthcoming.
It also warns that Boris Johnson's 'opportunity guarantee' to young people of an apprenticeship or an in-work placement, which he announced in June, falls 'significantly short of what is needed.'
Writing in The Observer, Mr Brown said it is 'barely believable' that a million young people will need urgent support in two weeks' time, when the furlough scheme ends.
On Sunday, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown also weighed in on the debate by warning that there is a 'hidden army of young people who desperately need our help'
And, speaking on BBC Radio 4's Sunday programme, he said: 'This is an ethical issue, it is a moral issue.
'One million young people unemployed. It is going back to the 1980s. I was shocked when I found out that this was the figure of young people who've not got anything to do.
'It is a hidden army of young people who desperately need our help and we cannot, we just cannot, afford to have another lost generation as we had in the 1980s. A lost Covid generation.
'It destroys self worth, it hurts family life. It shatters communities. It means that people find that relationships with other people are incredibly difficult.
'It is something that is ethical because it is about our responsibilities to other people.'
He added: 'If we allow 1 million young people, or numbers getting even close to that figure, to go for months without a job, just think of the cost in unemployment benefits.
A growing feud between Andy Burnham (pictured) and top ministers is set to intensify after the Labour mayor labelled Rishi Sunak 'the problem' in a row over tighter coronavirus restrictions in Greater Manchester
'Think of the cost in the way our community fabric is broken. We simply cannot afford not to act.
'And of course training a young person is not that expensive compared with some of the furlough payments we have had to make.'
In September, the Government launched a £2billion 'KickStart' scheme to get young people into jobs as figures revealed a record-breaking 538,000 under-25s claimed Universal Credit in lockdown.
However, Mr Brown told the BBC that the plan, launched by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, 'does not add up.'
He said: 'It doesn't deal with the problem. It is not possible under his proposals to get people back to work or to keep them in work in the way that he wanted.
'I have been looking at vacancies - so one vacancy, one job available but 2,900 people going for it Northumbria.
'One in Newcastle, 2,600, in the Midlands, 1,600 people going for one job.
'These are the terrible figures showing just how difficult it is going to be, particularly for young people.
'Out of school, out of college, sometimes without qualifications, sometimes not confident of their own position, who need help.
Under the KickStart scheme, employers will be able to offer work placements to benefit claimants with the state covering 100 per cent of the resulting minimum wage, national insurance and pension payments.
On Sunday, Greater Manchester mayor Mr Burnham labelled Mr Sunak 'the problem' as the row over greater coronavirus restrictions escalated.
The mayor of Greater Manchester, who has called for more financial support for the area ahead of plans to plunge it into a Tier 3 lockdown, has hit out at the Chancellor, who he says has made 'wrong judgements throughout this'.
He also attacked Mr Sunak's Eat Out to Help Out scheme as 'poor judgement', in an interview with New Statesman magazine.
Mr Burnham and Conservative politicians in Greater Manchester are opposing the government's Tier 3 measures, which will see pubs and bars closed in the area.
The two sides are currently locked in a stalemate over the proposals.
Mr Burnham has called for a return to the generosity of the original furlough scheme that saw the Treasury pay 80 per cent of workers wages.
But Mr Sunak has only offered a 66 per cent subsidy for those whose firms forced to shut by Tier 3 measures.
Ahead of supposed talks set up for the weekend, which Mr Burnham's office deny, the Greater Manchester mayor hit out at Mr Sunak in an interview with the New Statesman magazine: 'I think the problem now is, to a large degree, the Chancellor. I think he's made wrong judgements throughout this.'
There is a less than 50% chance of the UK striking a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, a senior Cabinet minister has told Sky News.
Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told the bloc's chief negotiator Michael Barnier that "the ball is in his court" as to whether negotiations resume in the coming days.
He blamed a possible collapse in talks on "the position that's been taken in the last couple of weeks" by EU leaders.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday claimed Brussels had "abandoned the idea of a free trade deal".
And the UK's chief negotiator, Lord Frost, told Mr Barnier not to bother travelling to London on Monday - as he had intended - as there was "no basis" on which to continue negotiations.
However, the pair are expected to hold virtual talks on Monday after which a decision will be made regarding the rest of the week.
The dramatic bust-up between both sides follows Thursday's European Council summit, at which the EU's national leaders were accused of watering down a commitment to "intensify" trade talks.
They also called on the UK to "make the necessary moves" for a post-Brexit deal - which Lord Frost interpreted as a demand for him to make all future moves in an effort to reach an agreement.
Earlier this month, Mr Gove claimed there was around a 66% chance of EU-UK negotiations succeeding.
But he told Sky News' Sophy Ridge on Sunday show that there was now a lesser chance of a deal and, asked if it was now less that 50%, he replied: "Well, I think it's less.
"I can't be precise but one of the reasons why it's less is the position that's been taken in the last couple of weeks by EU leaders.
"What we have seen and what our negotiators have found is that the EU side have not been willing to produce the detailed legal text, they have not been willing to intensify the talks in a way that would indicate that they were acting seriously about reaching an agreement.
"They have also insisted both that we accept a level of control over our autonomy that an independent country can't really accept.
"And, at the same time, they are saying we should continue to have exactly the same access to, for example, our fishing waters and our fishing stocks as before.
"So that seems to me to be the behaviour of an organisation and an institution that is not serious about looking at compromises necessary to secure a deal.
"But I still hope we will get a deal through."
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Asked if future negotiations with Mr Barnier would still take place, Mr Gove said: "Well, the ball is in his court.
"We've made clear that we need to see a change in approach from the EU. I know that he will be calling David Frost over the course of the next few days.
"Let's see if the EU appreciates the importance of reaching a deal and the importance of moving ground."
The UK officially left the EU on 31 January and entered the Brexit transition period, which will end on 31 December.
If there is no agreement on a future EU-UK relationship prior to that date, the two sides are likely to have to trade on World Trade Organisation rules with tariffs imposed in both directions.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said a post-Brexit trade deal was needed "in the national interest".
"I think it is very important that the remaining issues are negotiated, and we get an agreement, he told the BBC's Politics Wales show.
"We need to, the clock is ticking. We need this agreement in the national interest.
"The prime minister said he had an oven-ready deal. He should get on and deliver that."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he may "need to intervene" if local leaders do not accept a move to tier three curbs.
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