Babak Belurs

Senin, 12 Oktober 2020

Coronavirus: Regional heat maps reveal where COVID-19 is 'creeping up' into older age groups - Sky News

Coronavirus is "creeping up" into older, more vulnerable age groups, England's deputy chief medical officer has said, as he unveiled heat maps showing how the virus is spreading in different parts of the country.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said the rise in COVID-19 cases is being seen "nationwide" and "pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate".

He told a news conference that other regions are following the pattern of the North West in England where the virus has moved through the age bands, having started spiking among young people at first.

Live updates on coronavirus from US, UK and around world

Addressing the regional heat maps, he said: "You will see that the infection rate was initially highest in the 16 to 29-year-olds and that, as you move to the right, just gets hotter and hotter.

"But as it does so, you can see the incremental creep of the infection into the next age band up, 30 to 44, followed two or three weeks later by a creep-up again into the 45 to 59s, and you can now see that the 60 plus are also heating up on that chart.

"The North West experienced all of this first and my understanding is that pattern is likely to be followed - you can see it in the North East and you can see it in Yorkshire and the Humber just beginning but at an earlier stage."

Prof Van-Tam said the spread of the virus into the 60-plus age group was "of significant concern".

"The elderly suffer a much worse course with COVID-19, they are admitted to hospital for longer periods, and they are more difficult to save," he added.

Prof Van-Tam also addressed a slide shown in the briefing about rates of coronavirus cases increasing in the south of England.

He said he was concerned he may have presented a "bi-polar picture that COVID-19 is a problem in the North and not a problem in the South".

"On the contrary, the epidemic this time has clearly picked up pace in the north of England earlier than it did in the first wave and that almost certainly relates to the fact the disease levels in the North, and certainly in the North West, never dropped as far in the summer as they did in the South," he added.

"But pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate and that extending brown map that I showed you, which is sourced from the Joint Biosecurity Centre, absolutely makes that point.

"This is a nationwide phenomenon now that rates are changing upwards across the UK."

Prof Van-Tam was speaking at a news briefing ahead of an announcement on further restrictions from Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

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2020-10-12 13:02:19Z
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Coronavirus: Three-week delay for 'most' GCSE and A-level exams in England next summer - Sky News

GCSE and A-level exams in England will go ahead next summer, but "most" of them will be delayed by three weeks, the education secretary has announced.

Gavin Williamson said the move would "give students more time to prepare and a chance to catch up on education lost due to COVID-19".

Live updates on coronavirus from UK and around world

"We know that exams are the fairest way of measuring a student's abilities and accomplishments, including the most disadvantaged," he said.

"We want to give our young people the opportunity next summer to demonstrate what they know and can do."

The main set of exams will start on 7 June and run until 2 July, apart from the English and Maths GCSEs, which will be held before the May half-term.

Some AS-levels and A-levels with small numbers of students will also take place before half-term.

Results days for A-levels and GCSEs will fall on 24 and 27 August respectively.

On the prospect of exams being disrupted by coronavirus, Mr Williamson said schools and colleges "have shown exams can be held, even in areas of local restriction" during the current set of autumn exams.

"Exams next year will be supported by contingencies for all scenarios," he added.

"Today I have written to Ofqual to ask the regulator to support government in developing these arrangements, engaging closely with the school and further education leaders, teachers, exam boards, unions and the higher education sector.

"The results of this planning and ongoing discussions with the sector will be published later in the autumn."

Reacting to the announcement, school leaders' union NAHT said it was "just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the planning that now needs to be done".

General secretary Paul Whiteman said: "This step does not address the disparity between different student's different levels of disruption to learning; much more needs to be done to ensure that the qualification system takes account of this so that students can have confidence that the grades they are awarded in 2021 are fair."

The education secretary came under pressure to resign this summer over a controversial algorithm used to grade pupils whose exams were cancelled due to the pandemic.

It was eventually scrapped in favour of teacher-assessed grades, after nearly 40% of A-Level marks were downgraded.

Mr Williamson said he was "incredibly sorry for the distress" the row caused to students and that when "it became clear there were anomalies", the government changed course.

The head of Ofqual told MPs that it was a "fundamental mistake" to believe the algorithm would "ever be acceptable to the public".

Roger Taylor also told the Education Select Committee that the body advised the government against cancelling this summer's exams because of coronavirus.

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2020-10-12 11:50:26Z
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Covid: Nightingale hospitals in northern England told to get ready - BBC News

NHS Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate are being asked to get ready to take patients.

Government advisers say admissions are rising, with more elderly people needing urgent treatment for Covid.

More people are now in hospital with Covid than before restrictions were announced in March.

It comes as a new three-tier system of lockdown rules for England is due to be announced.

Boris Johnson will set out the changes in the Commons on Monday afternoon, before speaking at a Downing Street press conference later.

The Liverpool City Region is expected to face the tightest restrictions under a new three-tier system which will classify regions as being on "medium", "high" or "very high" alert.

Liverpool recorded 600 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending 6 October. The average for England was 74.

But England's deputy chief medical officer said the rise in coronavirus cases was now being seen "nationwide" and was not solely a problem for northern England.

Prof Jonathan Van-Tam said the "marked pick-up" in cases that the country was seeing would lead to more deaths and he warned that coronavirus was spreading from younger age groups into the over 60s who are more vulnerable.

Hospitals have not yet reached capacity, but the NHS may have to use some of the temporary critical care Nightingale hospitals if demand continues to rise, say the advisers.

Most of the Nightingales, set up in the spring as an insurance policy in case the NHS became overwhelmed, were never used.

How NHS Nightingale was built in just nine days

NHS England's medical director Prof Stephen Powis cautioned that it would take "a number of weeks" before the benefit of any extra measures - such as shutting pubs - would be seen in bringing hospital admissions down.

"In the over-65s - particularly the over-85s - we are seeing steep rises in the numbers of people being admitted to hospital so the claim that the elderly can somehow be fenced off from risk is wishful thinking," he said.

He said NHS staff working in the parts of England with the highest Covid rates would be offered regular tests to check if they had the virus.

The NHS is in a much better position to cope than it was back in March.

There are better treatments available and more knowledge of how best to care for patients who fall seriously ill.

The upwards trajectory is also no where near what it was. Admissions are doubling every fortnight currently, compared with every five days or so in the spring.

There is also free capacity. Overall, about 3% of all hospital beds are occupied by Covid patients, while in the summer there were 30,000 beds free - three times what there normally is (unfortunately we don't have a more recent figure because NHS England won't publish one).

But the national picture does mask the real pressure being felt in particular areas.

There is most concern about hospitals in north-west England which are caring for more than a third of patients, with senior doctors warning it is starting to affect the ability of the NHS to care for other patients, which is why the Nightingale hospitals in those regions are being stood up.

The problem with introducing the sort of restrictions that are being suggested to control the spread of the virus is that no-one is really sure whether they will really work.

Dr Jane Eddleston, medical lead in Greater Manchester, urged the public to "respect" the virus due to the "extremely serious" consequences it has for some patients.

She told the press briefing: "The North West has about 40% of all Covid cases at the moment and this is proving very challenging for us."

Prof Van-Tam reminded people how the virus spreads - in closed spaces, crowded places and between close contacts.

On Sunday, 12,872 people in the UK were reported to have tested positive for coronavirus - some 2,294 fewer than on Saturday.

There were a further 65 deaths - down from 81 on Saturday.