Rabu, 30 September 2020

BEN SPENCER analyses the good news graphs the experts didn't show you - Daily Mail

Why Professor Chris Whitty's pessimism isn't the full picture: BEN SPENCER analyses the good news graphs the experts didn’t show you

Four times yesterday we were told that Covid numbers are going in the wrong direction.

Cases are up, hospital admissions are up and deaths are up, the grim press conference informed the nation.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, warned: ‘This is headed in the wrong direction. There’s no cause for complacency here at all.’

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, agreed. ‘This is definitely heading the wrong way.’ Some 71 Covid deaths were yesterday recorded across the UK.

A little over six months ago, on March 21 – two days before the nation was plunged into lockdown – exactly the same number of deaths were reported.

The Government is desperate to avoid the virus suddenly running out of control. If cases spike, it could overwhelm the NHS. But all the signs suggest this is not on the cards. Yes, cases are worryingly high. Yes, hospital admissions have doubled in a week. And yes, 71 deaths are a tragedy

The Government is desperate to avoid the virus suddenly running out of control. If cases spike, it could overwhelm the NHS. But all the signs suggest this is not on the cards. Yes, cases are worryingly high. Yes, hospital admissions have doubled in a week. And yes, 71 deaths are a tragedy

The symmetry is chilling and the message from Boris Johnson and his advisers was clear: Follow the rules, toe the line, or we will have no choice but to lock the country down once again. Warning that the nation is at a ‘critical moment’, the PM said: ‘We will not hesitate to take further measures that would, I’m afraid, be more costly than the ones we have put into effect now.’

But although cases and deaths are, indeed, heading up, Britain is in a much better position than it was in the spring. On March 21, when 71 people died of Covid, we were at the start of a rising curve that was about to soar.

A few days later the daily death toll had hit 1,000. Cases were doubling every three to four days, Professor Whitty reminded us yesterday. The last time he and Sir Patrick appeared together at Downing Street, some ten days ago, they predicted that cases were doubling every seven days.

Even that now seems like a pessimistic forecast. In reality, the data suggests cases are rising far more slowly, perhaps doubling as slowly as every 21 days.

This may seem like nitpicking, after all, if cases are rising, then so will hospital admissions and deaths will inevitably follow.

Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty often look to France and Spain, which are said to be two to three weeks ahead of the UK in their trajectories. Although both countries have far higher cases than Britain, they have not seen anything like the spike seen in the spring

Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty often look to France and Spain, which are said to be two to three weeks ahead of the UK in their trajectories. Although both countries have far higher cases than Britain, they have not seen anything like the spike seen in the spring

But the speed of the rise, the gradient of the graph, is crucial when the cost of action to flatten the curve would be so high.

The Government is desperate to avoid the virus suddenly running out of control. If cases spike, it could overwhelm the NHS.

But all the signs suggest this is not on the cards. Yes, cases are worryingly high. Yes, hospital admissions have doubled in a week. And yes, 71 deaths are a tragedy.

But all these figures have been increasing very gradually for a number of weeks.

And a major study by Imperial College London, based on tens of thousands of tests, last night suggested that the rate of growth may even be slowing. It estimated the crucial R rate has dropped to 1.1 – from a peak of roughly 1.5 the week before – suggesting that recent restrictions are working. Exponential growth does not seem imminent.

Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty often look to France and Spain, which are said to be two to three weeks ahead of the UK in their trajectories.

Although both countries have far higher cases than Britain, they have not seen anything like the spike seen in the spring.

Daily cases in both countries stand at about 12,000, if the seven-day rolling average is looked at, which flattens out the peaks and troughs of day-to-day reporting.

This figure has stayed roughly level in France over the past week, and in Spain it has actually dropped slightly. Deaths in both countries are also high – France has about twice Britain’s daily deaths and Spain about triple.

But, again, both have stayed fairly stable in the past fortnight.

Neither country has seen the virus run out of control, as it did in the spring. Much has been made of the 7,000 new coronavirus cases reported in Britain yesterday and the day before.Although these are the highest figures on record, last spring the country was doing only a fraction of the testing, so only a tiny proportion of cases were detected.

If we had been carrying out the same number of tests then, as we are now, we are likely to have seen between 80,000 and 100,000 infections per day.

By that measure what we are currently experiencing is more a ripple than a second wave. The PM is acutely aware of the costs of more restrictions. After a series of bruising headlines about missed cancer screenings during the last shutdown, he was quick to stress last night that the NHS remains open for business.

His officials predict that 74,000 people will die as an indirect result of the spring lockdown – many because they stayed away from hospitals.

Mr Johnson must be sure, before ordering a repeat, that the cure is not worse than the disease.

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2020-09-30 21:33:41Z
52781094966458

Boris Johnson's father Stanley seen shopping WITHOUT facemask - Daily Mail

Boris Johnson's father Stanley faces £200 fine after being seen shopping WITHOUT a facemask in his local newsagent

  • Stanley Johnson caught without a facemask at a newsagents in West London
  • Comes just months after he flew to his Greek villa in defiance of travel warnings
  • Today Prime Minister pleaded with the British public to 'follow the guidance' 

Boris Johnson's father faces a £200 fine after he was spotted breaching coronavirus rules and shopping without a facemask.

Stanley Johnson, 79, who just months ago flew to his Greek villa in brazen defiance of pandemic travel warnings, was spotted without a face covering as he bought a newspaper at a newsagents in West London on Tuesday.

The scenes come after the Prime Minister today pleaded with the British public to  'follow the guidance' and urged people to wear a mask in shops and on public transport during a Downing Street press conference. 

After being caught red-handed without a mask, the Prime Minister's father admitted he was 'maybe not 100 per cent up to speed' with the rules having just returned from abroad and said he was 'extremely sorry'. 

Stanley Johnson, 79, was spotted without a face covering as he bought a newspaper at a newsagents in West London on Tuesday

Stanley Johnson, 79, was spotted without a face covering as he bought a newspaper at a newsagents in West London on Tuesday

He told The Mirror: 'I was maybe not 100 per cent up to speed but that was my first day back in England after three weeks not in England.

'So they (the rules) may have changed in that time. I'm not really a big shopping man.

'I'm extremely sorry for the slip up and I would urge absolutely everybody to do everything they can to make sure they do follow the rules about masks and social distancing.'  

The scenes come just months after the Prime Minister was met with a furious backlash after his father jetted to his four-bed home in Greece– ignoring Foreign Office guidance which said no one should travel unless it is essential.

Despite the Government advising against all but essential travel, Mr Johnson claimed he needed to 'Covid proof' his villa before the pandemic-blighted tourist season started. 

The retired Tory MEP told local and international press: 'There is no question of my breaking the law. The minister of tourism here has my papers.

'It was always absolutely clear from the Greek government that the only thing they were banning were people coming in from direct flights from Britain.' 

The scenes come after the Prime Minister today pleaded with the British public to 'follow the guidance' and urged people to wear a mask in shops and on public transport

The scenes come after the Prime Minister today pleaded with the British public to 'follow the guidance' and urged people to wear a mask in shops and on public transport

Locals claimed he arrived to the region by private car after documenting his controversial journey from the UK on social media, sharing a video taken from a plane and a selfie where his face was covered with a white mask. 

When he was later confronted by international media in Pelion, a visibly unnerved Mr Johnson said he was unaware of the outcry in Britain about his flight. 

'It is true I took the pictures down,' he said. 'But I didn't put them up in spirit of defiance…. I certainly had no intention of provoking anyone.' 

Today Boris Johnson pleaded with Britons to 'follow the guidance' in an effort to prevent a second national lockdown.

He said: 'Let me just say what I've said to everybody, please everybody follow the guidance.

'Bearing in mind, you are doing it not just to protect your neighbour but ultimately someone that you could transmit the disease to that could end up infecting someone that you love. It is absolutely crucial that we stop the spread of this disease.'

He added: 'Wear a mask on transport in the way that is recommended.

'And, bear in mind that the fines are now very considerable and they will be imposed.'

Last week, the Prime Minister revealed that fines for failing to wear a face mask would rise to £200 and will become compulsory for bar staff, shop workers, waiters and taxi passengers.

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2020-09-30 20:33:43Z
52781090130214

Covid: UK at 'critical moment' with coronavirus - PM - BBC News

Media playback is unsupported on your device

New measures to tackle the increase in coronavirus cases "will take time to feed through", Boris Johnson says.

The prime minister told a No 10 briefing the UK was at a "critical moment" and the rising number of cases and deaths shows "why our plan is so essential".

He said he would "not hesitate" to impose further restrictions if needed.

Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said: "We don't have this under control at the moment."

"There's no cause for complacency here at all," he added.

It comes as the latest UK coronavirus figures showed there have been a further 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.

Last week, Mr Johnson introduced restrictions including a 10pm closing time for the hospitality industry in England, with similar announcements in Scotland and Wales, and a 15-person limit on weddings.

Since then, further local lockdowns have come into force, including in north-east England, where households are banned from mixing indoors.

At the press conference at Downing Street, Mr Johnson also said the nation could face the winter "with confidence" because it was now better prepared than in March.

The preparations include being on track for 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, 2,000 beds in seven Nightingale hospitals and a four-month supply of protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gowns and visors.

He said they had trebled the number of ventilators in the NHS to 31,500 in the last six months.

There were 312 Covid-19 patients in mechanical ventilator beds as of Tuesday, the government said, and 2,252 in hospital, as reported on Monday.

'Will the second wave be less severe?'

It is now clear the second wave is here. Infections, hospital cases and deaths are all rising.

But what happens next is the big unknown.

The doomsday scenario of a doubling of cases every week that was put forward last week is not materialising.

The increase in hospital admissions is even more gradual - and the total numbers being admitted are more than 10 times lower than they were at the peak.

It points to a slower, less severe wave this time round.

But it is still early days.

We are just at the start of the autumn and winter period when respiratory viruses circulate more.

The situation could easily unravel.

However, the UK, like other countries, is in a much stronger position than we were when we walked blind into the first wave.

Better treatments are in place, social distancing has become routine and - despite the problems - there is much more testing available.

The odds are certainly stacked in our favour more than they were six months ago.

Read the full analysis

Mr Johnson also thanked "everyone for the fantastic national effort that we are seeing".

"No matter how impatient we may be, how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this, and that's by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others," he said.

Mr Johnson paid particular tribute to university students, hundreds of whom have been forced to self-isolate, and are "experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined".

He urged people to use the NHS Test and Trace app, saying it had reached 14 million downloads.

He also said he would resume providing regular Downing Street briefings.

'A long winter ahead'

The prime minister warned he was prepared to take "more costly" action against the virus if necessary.

"If we put in the work together now, then we give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding that outcome and avoiding further measures," he said.

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty told the press conference that the number of Covid-19 patients was rising, especially in hotspots, although they remained lower than in early April.

"We are pointing out that the direction of travel for both hospitals and intensive care is going in the wrong direction, particularly in these areas that have seen rapid increases in cases," he said.

"We have got a long winter ahead of us."

Prof Whitty said the pattern of cases was "rather different" in the second wave, with a "heavy concentration" of infections in areas such as the the Midlands, as well north-east and north-west England, alongside the general rise in Covid-19.

He said cases were increasing "quite rapidly" among older teenagers and under-21s, but the rate of transmission among school-age children was not changing very much.

The government has faced criticism in recent days over the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of its coronavirus measures and the complexity of the changing rules.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said there had to be "a national effort to prevent a second lockdown".

But he said the government was not fulfilling its role of providing a "very clear strategy", instead offering "confusion".

Sir Keir said there needed to be an "urgent review" of local restrictions, as they had now been imposed in 48 areas and only lifted in one - Luton.

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2020-09-30 18:29:09Z
52781090130214

Covid: UK at 'critical moment' with coronavirus - PM - BBC News

Media playback is unsupported on your device

New measures to tackle the increase in coronavirus cases "will take time to feed through", Boris Johnson says.

The prime minister told a No 10 briefing the UK was at a "critical moment" and the rising number of cases and deaths shows "why our plan is so essential".

He said he would "not hesitate" to impose further restrictions if needed.

Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said: "We don't have this under control at the moment."

"There's no cause for complacency here at all," he added.

It comes as the latest UK coronavirus figures showed there have been a further 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.

Last week, Mr Johnson introduced restrictions including a 10pm closing time for the hospitality industry in England, with similar announcements in Scotland and Wales, and a 15-person limit on weddings.

Since then, further local lockdowns have come into force, including in north-east England, where households are banned from mixing indoors.

At the press conference at Downing Street, Mr Johnson also said the nation could face the winter "with confidence" because it was now better prepared than in March.

The preparations include being on track for 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, 2,000 beds in seven Nightingale hospitals and a four-month supply of protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gowns and visors.

He said they had trebled the number of ventilators in the NHS to 31,500 in the last six months.

There were 312 Covid-19 patients in mechanical ventilator beds as of Tuesday, the government said, and 2,252 in hospital, as reported on Monday.

'Will the second wave be less severe?'

It is now clear the second wave is here. Infections, hospital cases and deaths are all rising.

But what happens next is the big unknown.

The doomsday scenario of a doubling of cases every week that was put forward last week is not materialising.

The increase in hospital admissions is even more gradual - and the total numbers being admitted are more than 10 times lower than they were at the peak.

It points to a slower, less severe wave this time round.

But it is still early days.

We are just at the start of the autumn and winter period when respiratory viruses circulate more.

The situation could easily unravel.

However, the UK, like other countries, is in a much stronger position than we were when we walked blind into the first wave.

Better treatments are in place, social distancing has become routine and - despite the problems - there is much more testing available.

The odds are certainly stacked in our favour more than they were six months ago.

Read the full analysis

Mr Johnson also thanked "everyone for the fantastic national effort that we are seeing".

"No matter how impatient we may be, how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this, and that's by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others," he said.

Mr Johnson paid particular tribute to university students, hundreds of whom have been forced to self-isolate, and are "experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined".

He urged people to use the NHS Test and Trace app, saying it had reached 14 million downloads.

He also said he would resume providing regular Downing Street briefings.

'A long winter ahead'

The prime minister warned he was prepared to take "more costly" action against the virus if necessary.

"If we put in the work together now, then we give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding that outcome and avoiding further measures," he said.

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty told the press conference that the number of Covid-19 patients was rising, especially in hotspots, although they remained lower than in early April.

"We are pointing out that the direction of travel for both hospitals and intensive care is going in the wrong direction, particularly in these areas that have seen rapid increases in cases," he said.

"We have got a long winter ahead of us."

Prof Whitty said the pattern of cases was "rather different" in the second wave, with a "heavy concentration" of infections in areas such as the the Midlands, as well north-east and north-west England, alongside the general rise in Covid-19.

He said cases were increasing "quite rapidly" among older teenagers and under-21s, but the rate of transmission among school-age children was not changing very much.

The government has faced criticism in recent days over the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of its coronavirus measures and the complexity of the changing rules.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said there had to be "a national effort to prevent a second lockdown".

But he said the government was not fulfilling its role of providing a "very clear strategy", instead offering "confusion".

Sir Keir said there needed to be an "urgent review" of local restrictions, as they had now been imposed in 48 areas and only lifted in one - Luton.

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2020-09-30 18:22:30Z
52781090130214

Covid: Tighter rules 'will take time' to show results, says Johnson - BBC News

Media playback is unsupported on your device

New measures to tackle the rise in coronavirus cases "will take time to feed through", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.

Mr Johnson told a Downing Street briefing that the high number of daily cases and "tragic increase" in deaths "show why our plan is so essential".

He said he would "not hesitate" to impose further restrictions if needed.

"This is headed in the wrong direction," said chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

"There's no cause for complacency here at all," he said.

It comes as the latest UK coronavirus figures showed there have been a further 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.

Mr Johnson also said the nation could face the winter "with confidence" because it is now better prepared than it was in March.

The preparations include being on track for 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, 2,000 beds in seven Nightingale hospitals and a four-month supply of protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gowns and visors.

He said they had trebled the number of ventilators in the NHS to 31,500 in the last six months.

"I want to thank everyone for the fantastic national effort that we are seeing," Mr Johnson said.

"No matter how impatient we may be, how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this, and that's by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others."

'Will the second wave be less severe?'

It is now clear the second wave is here. Infections, hospital cases and deaths are all rising.

But what happens next is the big unknown.

The doomsday scenario of a doubling of cases every week that was put forward last week is not materialising.

The increase in hospital admissions is even more gradual - and the total numbers being admitted are more than 10 times lower than they were at the peak.

It points to a slower, less severe wave this time round.

But it is still early days.

We are just at the start of the autumn and winter period when respiratory viruses circulate more.

The situation could easily unravel.

However, the UK, like other countries, is in a much stronger position than we were when we sleepwalked into the first wave.

Better treatments are in place, social distancing has become routine and - despite the problems - there is much more testing available.

The odds are certainly stacked in our favour more than they were six months ago.

Read the full analysis

Mr Johnson paid particular tribute to university students, hundreds of whom have been forced to self-isolate, and are "experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined".

He urged people to use the NHS Test and Trace app, saying it had reached 14 million downloads, and said he would resume providing regular Downing Street briefings.

The prime minister said it was a "critical moment" in the pandemic and warned he was prepared to take "more costly" action against the virus if necessary.

"If we put in the work together now, then we give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding that outcome and avoiding further measures."

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty told the briefing the number of Covid-19 patients was rising, especially in hotspots, although they remained lower than in early April.

"We are pointing out that the direction of travel for both hospitals and intensive care is going in the wrong direction, particularly in these areas that have seen rapid increases in cases," he said.

"We have got a long winter ahead of us."

Prof Whitty said the pattern of cases was "rather different" in the second wave, with a "heavy concentration" of infections in areas such as the the Midlands, as well north-east and north-west England, alongside the general rise in Covid-19.

He said cases are increasing "quite rapidly" among older teenagers and under-21s, but the rate of transmission among school-age children was not changing very much.

"We don't have this under control at the moment," said Sir Patrick Vallance.

The government has faced criticism in recent days over the lack of Parliamentary scrutiny of its coronavirus measures and the complexity of the changing rules.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said there has to be a "a national effort to prevent a second lockdown".

But he said the government was not fulfilling its role of providing a "very clear strategy", instead offering "confusion".

Sir Keir said there needed to be an "urgent review" of local restrictions, as they have now been imposed in 48 areas and only lifted in one.

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2020-09-30 17:26:15Z
52781090130214

Covid: Tighter rules 'will take time' to show results, says Johnson - BBC News

New measures to tackle the rise in coronavirus cases "will take time to feed through", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.

He told a Downing Street briefing that the high number of daily cases and "tragic increase" in deaths "show why our plan is so essential".

The prime minister called for "collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices".

But he said he would "not hesitate" to impose further restrictions if needed.

Mr Johnson said the nation could face the winter "with confidence" because it is now better prepared than it was in March.

The preparations include being on track for 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, 2,000 beds in seven Nightingale hospitals and a four-month supply of protective equipment such as masks, gowns and visors.

He said they had trebled the number of ventilators in the NHS to 31,500 in the last six months.

"I want to thank everyone for the fantastic national effort that we are seeing," Mr Johnson said.

"No matter how impatient we may be, how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this, and that's by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others."

He paid particular tribute to university students, hundreds of whom have been forced to self-isolate, and are "experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined".

The prime minister was speaking alongside England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, as the latest UK coronavirus figures showed there have been a further 7,108 cases of coronavirus and another 71 deaths.

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2020-09-30 16:29:42Z
52781090130214

Coronavirus: MPs promised vote on new rules 'wherever possible' - BBC News

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  1. Coronavirus: MPs promised vote on new rules 'wherever possible'  BBC News
  2. MPs to get a vote on coronavirus laws as Boris Johnson stages climbdown  Mirror Online
  3. Coronavirus: Ministers treating Parliament with 'contempt,' says Speaker Hoyle  BBC News
  4. Bluster can’t hide the incompetence: Boris Johnson isn’t the leader Conservative MPs thought they were getting  The Independent
  5. The Tories are spoiling for a culture war to stand up for 'British values'  iNews
  6. View Full coverage on Google News

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2020-09-30 16:18:45Z
52781086666475