Rabu, 06 Mei 2020

Scientist Neil Ferguson's lover said lockdown 'strained' her marriage - Daily Mail

Shamed Neil Ferguson’s married lover said lockdown 'strained' her marriage a day after the couple enjoyed a secret tryst as Matt Hancock says he’s 'speechless' at scientist’s rule breach and would back police fine

  • Prof Neil Ferguson, 51, warned UK could see 500,000 deaths if it didn't implement mass self-isolation
  • His advice, through a report he helped produce at Imperial College, led to the PM bringing in the lockdown 
  • But since it started he allowed his married lover to travel across London to visit him at home at least twice 
  • Antonia Staats, 38, lives with her husband, in his 30s, and two children in a £1.9 million house in south London 
  • On March 31 she admitted lockdown was 'challenge' for her marriage and husband Chris may have had Covid 
  • The scientist has quit his role on the secretive SAGE committee - but Imperial College is standing by him 
  • Elon Musk leads US anger at 'hypocritical' British 'Professor Lockdown' over his rule-breaking trysts 
  • Do you know more about this story? Email martin.robinson@mailonline.co.uk or tips@dailymail.com
  • Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
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The woman having an affair with Professor Neil Ferguson said the lockdown was putting a 'strain' on her marriage as Health Secretary Matt Hancock today admitted the shamed scientist's potentially illegal trysts had left him 'speechless'.

Professor Ferguson, 51, asked his mistress Antonia Staats, 38, to travel across London from her £1.9million home at least twice despite lecturing 66million in Britain on the need to stay apart to stop the spread of the killer virus and stop the NHS being overwhelmed with patients.

Professor Neil Ferguson was branded an 'arrogant hypocrite' by critics today for catastrophically 'undermining' the government's lockdown position with growing pressure for the police to pay him a visit.

In a podcast on March 31, 24 hours after her first visit to his central London flat, Ms Staats, who is said to have met her lover on online dating site OkCupid, said of the lockdown: 'I think it's also a strain on – maybe strained has sounded too negative – but it's an interesting relationship challenge, for Chris [her husband] and my relationship.' 

And despite seeing her lover across town as the pandemic approached its peak she admitted: 'Chris has been not feeling great and thinks he got it. But we can't know for sure'. 

Matt Hancock today backed his decision to resign from the UK Government's influential SAGE committee and said: 'It's just extraordinary. I don't understand the decision [to ignore the lockdown]. I am speechless - and that doesn't often happen to me. But I am. The social distancing rules are there for everyone. And they are incredibly important and deadly serious'.

Speaking to Sky News today the Health Secretary hinted that the police should fine Professor Ferguson for breaking the lockdown laws. He said: 'It's a matter for the police.. but I think the social distancing rules are there for a reason. I back the police here. They will make the decisions independently - but I think he was right to resign'.

Scotland Yard are understood to be looking at the case and a spokesman said: 'We are aware of the reports and the Government guidance refers to everybody'.  

Neil Ferguson was nicknamed 'Professor Lockdown' when the crisis began because he convinced Boris Johnson to order millions to stay at home - with the Health Secretary admitting today that his advice, which included apocalyptic warnings of 500,000 UK deaths, had heavily influenced the Government's policies. 

The shamed academic also predicted the United States faced 2.2million death without a lockdown and today Elon Musk branded him a 'moron' and a 'tool' and said he and other academics spooked the White House into initiating its own lockdown by peddling 'fake science'.

Ms Staats is believed to have visited the scientist shortly after he finished self-isolating for two weeks - and may also face police action

Ms Staats is believed to have visited the scientist shortly after he finished self-isolating for two weeks - and may also face police action

How architect of the lockdown lectured the country while flouting the rules 

Professor Neil Ferguson, 51, allowed the woman, Antonia Staats, to visit him at his home, despite the lockdown

Professor Neil Ferguson, 51, pictured on March 25 before the Commons Science and Technology Committee - five days before allowed his married lover, Antonia Staats, to visit him at his home

MARCH 16: A week before the lockdown began Professor Neil Ferguson was arguing that a full lockdown was required to slow the number of deaths and said: 'We are left with no option but to adopt this more draconian strategy'. 

A report he authored for his employer Imperial College London warned that 500,000 people could die without mass self-isolation of households. 

MARCH 17:  He visited Downing Street to advise the Prime Minister on his findings including recommendations for a lockdown.

MARCH 18: Professor Ferguson tests positive for coronavirus

MARCH 23: Boris Johnson announces there will be a lockdown in a national TV address 

MARCH 25: Prof Ferguson appears before the Commons Science and Technology Committee and warns that the NHS will be overwhelmed without a lockdown, 

MARCH 30: His married lover Antonia Staats visited Prof Ferguson just after he had finished two weeks of self-isolation after testing positive for the virus. He also did a Radio 4 interview on the importance of the lockdown.  

APRIL 4: Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today, he said: 'We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May we can substitute less intensive measures for the current lockdown we have now... I don't think anyone wants to lift measures at the current time and risk the epidemic getting worse'

APRIL 8:  Antonia made a second visit to Professor Ferguson 8 despite telling friends that her husband, an academic in his 30s, was showing symptoms of coronavirus, according to the Telegraph.

APRIL 16: Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Professor Neil Ferguson had stressed the importance of keeping to social distancing guidelines. He said at the time: 'If we want to reopen schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner. It is not going to go back to normal, we will have to maintain some level of social distancing - significant levels of social distancing - probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.'

APRIL 25: The number of deaths from coronavirus could reach 100,000 in the UK by the end of this year if a gradual lockdown is implemented just to shield the elderly, Professor Neil Ferguson warned. He told UnHerd: 'You would require a very high level of effective shielding for that to be a viable strategy. If you just achieve 80 per cent shielding - and 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups - we still project that you would get more than 100,000 deaths this year from that kind of strategy. The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and most need interaction with the health system and are least able to be truly isolated.'

Mr Hancock also said it was 'just not possible' for Prof Ferguson to continue advising the Government, and on the academic's claims he believed he was 'immune' from Covid-19 Mr Hancock said: 'I asked the Chief Medical Officer this exact question recently and said: "because I've had it do I have to do social distancing?" and the answer was a clear "yes". 

In a resignation statement last night, the academic, who is married with a son but is believed to be separated from his wife, admitted he had 'made an error of judgement' but claimed he thought he was 'immune' to the illness - despite leading scientists and the World Health Organisation saying there is still not enough evidence recovering from Covid-19 can protect you from reinfection.  

Piers Morgan tweeted: 'Unbelievable and shocking. So, the government is ''following the science'' of scientists who don't even follow their own science. What a shameful shambles. Professor Ferguson's excuse is he thought he was immune from COVID-19 after having it - despite there being zero scientific proof people who've had it actually get immunity. And this guy's the No1 'expert' on whom the government is basing its entire coronavirus strategy?'

Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith said: 'Scientists like him have told us we should not be doing it, so surely in his case, it is a case of we have been doing as he says and he has been doing as he wants. He has peculiarly breached his own guidelines. For an intelligent man, I find that very hard to believe. It risks undermining the Government's lockdown message'.

Good Morning Britain medic Dr Hilary Jones said today: 'He says it was an error of judgement but I don't think there was any judgement at all. He was prepared to take risks but when you take risks you not only put yourself at risk but others as well. He had no choice but to resign as it was unacceptable that someone who set down rules and told the government what measures should be in place does that.'

Psychologist Emma Kenny told GMB: 'I'm not surprised he has broken his own rules because he consistently got the figures wrong and has given us a completely false representation of what we are facing'. 

The epidemiologist, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, authored the report containing the apocalyptic prediction that coronavirus could kill 500,000 Britons - convincing the Prime Minister he had to lockdown the country from March 23. 

Yet on March 30, Ms Staats, who lives with her husband Chris and their two children in a £1.9million house in south London, travelled across the capital to visit her scientist lover, who then apparently warned the country the lockdown would be necessary until June in a BBC interview when Ms Staats was allegedly in his flat.

His married lover, a Left-wing campaigner who has repeated slammed Boris Johnson and Brexit on social media, made a second visit to Professor Ferguson on April 8 despite telling friends that her husband, an academic in his 30s, was showing symptoms of coronavirus, according to the Telegraph.

Elon Musk leads US anger at 'hypocritical' British 'Professor Lockdown' over rule-breaking trysts 

Elon Musk has branded the British scientist who initiated the lockdown a 'moron' and a 'tool' after he broke his own rules to see his married lover.

The billionaire tech tycoon also rubbished Professor Neil Ferguson's 'fake science' which in March forecast apocalyptic death tolls in the UK and US if both governments remained squeamish about enforcing social distancing

The Imperial College London scientist's worst-case scenarios of 500,000 and 2.2million victims, respectively, is credited with spooking Downing Street and the White House into action.  

Responding to a tweet about Prof Ferguson's resignation, the billionaire SpaceX founder Mr Musk said: 'What a tool'. 

Labeling him 'a moron', Musk wrote: 'Something more should be done. This guy has caused massive strife to the world with his absurdly fake "science".' 

Ms Staats has reportedly insisted her actions to visit the scientist are not hypocritical, as she considers the households to be one because she is understood to be in an 'open relationship'. 

Neighbours described Chris Lucas as a bright, articulate man who enjoys taking part in community activities. 

They said that both he and Antonia are popular residents of the affluent, middle class area where houses cost in excess of £1.5 million.

One said: 'Chris is incredibly intelligent. He speaks about six or seven languages and is an academic at SOAS.

'Both he and Antonia are very popular around here and are a big part of our community. I always enjoy talking to them, especially Chris who is very knowledgeable about Middle Eastern affairs.

'Whenever we have any kind of community celebration they always take part along with their kids. They are a great family.'

Another neighbour said: 'I've known Chris and his family for five years they are really nice, helpful people.

'Chris is really intelligent and successful but he's really down to earth, as is Antonia, who is also incredibly bright. I' m not interested in the kind of relationship they had, that's nobody's business.

'She's a lovely person, really kind hearted and cares about making the world a better place. They're a wonderful family.'   

In 2017, Ms Staats was pictured protesting outside Parliament next to puppets of Theresa May and Rupert Murdoch while holding a banner that read: 'Stop Murdoch pulling the strings.'

In 2017, Ms Staats was pictured protesting outside Parliament next to puppets of Theresa May and Rupert Murdoch while holding a banner that read: 'Stop Murdoch pulling the strings.'

Ms Staats (second left) has insisted her actions to visit the scientist are not hypocritical, as she considers the households to be one

Ms Staats (second left) has insisted her actions to visit the scientist are not hypocritical, as she considers the households to be one

How Professor Neil Ferguson has advised the government on series of outbreaks including swine flu, foot and mouth and BSE 

Professor Neil Ferguson, 51, was born in Cumbria but grew up in Mid Wales, earning a masters degree in Physics and a PhD in theoretical physics from the University of Oxford. 

He specialises in measuring the spread of infectious disease in humans and animals through mathematical modelling and has provided data on several outbreaks including the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and the ebola epidemic in Western Africa in 2016.

He is currently the director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, and, before his resignation, a member of the government's SAGE committee that advises ministers on tackling the coronavirus pandemic.  

In March, he calculated that without a draconian national lockdown, coronavirus would claim 510,000 lives.

But crucially, he also estimated that 250,000 would die if ministers stuck with the strategy of controlling the spread with limited measures – such as home isolation for those displaying symptoms of the virus.

Prof Ferguson reckoned that if the strictest possible measures were introduced the number of deaths over a two-year period would fall to below 20,000.

In hindsight that estimate was ambitious – in less than three months Britain's death toll has soared to more than 32,000. But it was enough to persuade Mr Johnson to impose the most drastic peacetime measures ever seen. 

Prof Ferguson has been a regular presence on television and on the radio throughout the crisis. But he has rejected the 'Professor Lockdown' nickname used by many.

In one interview, on the Andrew Marr show last month, he insisted it was up to ministers to make the decisions. 'We provide scientific evidence along with a lot of other scientific groups across the country which fed into government policy,' he said.

'But we did not determine that policy, there are a number of balancing acts involved in doing that.' He also points out that he leads one of at least five modelling teams who had come to similar conclusions in March.

But as a long-term member of the Government's SAGE scientific advisory committee – and with a high-profile media presence – his voice is one that will have been heard louder than most.

On March 18 he fell victim to the virus himself. Two days previously he stood next to Health Secretary Matt Hancock at a Press conference.

Mr Hancock learned he had the virus a few days later. Mr Johnson and Chris Whitty, the chief medical advisor, developed symptoms the same day. Colleagues describe the 51-year-old as an energetic workaholic who has little need for sleep. 

Prof Ferguson rose to prominence during the 2001 foot and mouth crisis. His research, carried out with mentor Professor Roy Anderson, helped persuade Tony Blair's government to carry out a devastating cull of animals, and saw him awarded an OBE.His work suggested that animals to be culled should include not only those found to be infected with the virus but also those on adjacent farms.

A decade later another highly critical report said the Government ordered the destruction of millions of animals because of 'severely flawed' modelling.

In 2002, Prof Ferguson published a report on the BSE crisis, years after the peak of the episode.He speculated that BSE in cows and sheep could cause up to 150,000 human deaths – to date fewer than 200 have died.

He has since been involved in modelling numbers during the SARS, bird flu, ebola and Zika epidemics, with varying accuracy.

He stands by his work – pointing out that each calculation has come with a 'range' of possible eventualities.

The scientist has quit his role on the secretive SAGE committee of experts advising the Prime Minister but Imperial College London appears to be standing by him and said today that Prof Ferguson 'continues to focus on his important research'. 

The epidemiologist said in a statement: 'I accept I made an error of judgment and took the wrong course of action. I have therefore stepped back from my involvement in Sage [the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies].

'I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.

'I deeply regret any undermining of the clear messages around the continued need for social distancing to control this devastating epidemic. The Government guidance is unequivocal, and is there to protect all of us.'

Security Minister James Brokenshire said Prof Ferguson had 'made the right decision' in resigning from Sage.

He told Sky News: 'Professor Ferguson, I think, has obviously made his statement underlining that there's no excuse for not following the social distancing rules, and I think he's made the right decision here.

'The work of Sage continues and obviously we will continue to be informed by that group and the experts that provide that support to the Government.'

Asked whether Prof Ferguson's comments about immunity - in which he stated that he believed he was immune after contracting Covid-19 - should be taken seriously, Mr Brokenshire said it is 'too early' to reach conclusions.

Ms Staats visited Prof Ferguson just after he had finished two weeks of self-isolation after testing positive for the virus.

The visits came despite the government warning couples that they would either have to move in with each other or face staying apart during the coronavirus lockdown. 

He told the BBC Today Programme in mid-April, after he had seen his lover: 'If we want to reopen schools, let people get back to work then we need to keep transmissions down in another manner. It's not going to be going back to normal, we will have to maintain some level of social distancing, significant level of social distancing probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available'.

It was suggested the restrictions are an opportunity to 'test relationships' and Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer, said: 'If the two halves of a couple are currently in separate households, ideally they should stay in those households. 

'The alternative might be that, for quite a significant period going forwards, they should test the strength of their relationship and decide whether one wishes to be permanently resident in another household.' 

Prof Ferguson is thought to have met Ms Staat's husband and they share an interest in data science, according to a friend. He is said to have met Ms Staats through the online dating site OkCupid more than a year ago. 

The first of Ms Staat's visits to Prof Ferguson was on Monday March 30, a week into coronavirus lockdown.  

He appeared on the BBC Today programme at 7.50am that day, with Ms Staats thought to be at the house at the time. 

The visit coincided with a public warning by Prof Ferguson that the lockdown measures would have to remain until at least June. 

Ms Staats, who is a left-wing campaigner, made a second visit to Prof Ferguson on April 8, despite reportedly telling friends that she suspected her own husband, an academic in his 30s, had symptoms of coronavirus.  

She and her husband live in a £1.9 million home with their two children and are understood to be in an 'open relationship'.

Ms Staats grew up in Isny, south Germany, went to university in Berlin and came to London in 2003, earning a masters in Asian Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, where her husband works. 

She has worked for Avaaz, a US-based online network which promotes global activism on issues such as climate change. 

Professor Neil Ferguson warned the number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK could reach 500,000 if lockdown wasn't implemented
Ms Staats, who is a left-wing campaigner, lives in a £1.9 million house in south London with her husband and two children

Professor Neil Ferguson (left  on April 5) warned the number of deaths from coronavirus in the UK could reach 500,000 if lockdown wasn't implemented - yet he was still happy to spend the night with Antonia Staats, who reportedly told friends that she suspected her own husband, an academic in his 30s, had symptoms of coronavirus

In 2017, Ms Staats was pictured protesting outside Parliament next to puppets of Theresa May and Rupert Murdoch while holding a banner that read: 'Stop Murdoch pulling the strings.'  

How Imperial College report written by Prof Ferguson warned of 500,000 deaths and persuaded the PM to implement lockdown 

A scientific paper published by Professor Neil Ferguson and his colleagues on the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team was credited for persuading Boris Johnson's Government to ramp up their response to the coronavirus.

The paper predicted that the Government's original plan to 'mitigate' the outbreak instead of trying to stop it could have led to a quarter of a million people dying.

Using data from Italy and China, the scientists predicted how different Government measures would have different impacts on the outbreaks.

If no action at all had been taken against the coronavirus it would have claimed 510,000 lives, the team's report said.

Had the Government stuck with their strategy of trying to 'mitigate' the spread – allowing it to continue but attempting to slow it down – with limited measures such as home isolation for those with symptoms this number would be roughly halved to 260,000.

If the strictest possible measures are introduced – including school closures and mandatory home quarantine – the number of deaths over a two-year period would fall below 20,000, the scientists said, despite Britain's death toll far-surpassing that number.

'Instead of talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, there still will be a significant health impact that we'll be talking about,' Professor Ferguson said.

As a result, the Government implemented the lockdown, announcing that people should stop travelling, stop socialising and work from home. They were also told to avoid visiting their sick or elderly relatives unless they have to.

Other points in the Imperial College report, titled Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand, included:

A few weeks after the second visit, Prof Ferguson warned that the number of deaths from coronavirus could reach 100,000 in the UK by the end of this year if a gradual lockdown is implemented just to shield the elderly. 

He said it was impossible to send the young and healthy back to work while keeping the vulnerable in lockdown without seeing a huge increase in deaths. 

The epidemiologist added that some degree of social isolation will continue to be required until a vaccine to the killer bug is released. 

He has faced criticism for suggesting that UK deaths could hit 500,000 prior to the lockdown. 

Bur Prof Ferguson previously insisted there had been nothing wrong his prediction, saying he'd made it prior to the government bringing in tough measures and said he never thought that such a lockdown would have been pursued. 

His is not the first high-profile resignation of the pandemic, with Dr Catherine Calderwood having quit as Scotland's chief medical officer after making two trips to her second home.

Prof Ferguson, a mathematician and epidemiologist, led the Imperial team which modelled the spread and impact of Covid-19 in a Government-commissioned report. 

In the report's wake, the Prime Minister announced the lockdown on March 23 ordering the public to stay at home as he shut most shops and gave police unprecedented enforcement powers.

Under those measures, partners who do not live together were told they can no longer see each other.

Prof Ferguson said on March 18 that he had the fever and cough symptoms of Covid-19 and that there was a small risk he had infected others.

'The more serious point is that it highlights the need for the response which has been enacted,' he said at the time.

Following his recovery from the symptoms, he later told the BBC that 'significant levels of social distancing' would be required until a vaccine has been developed.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme last month, he said: 'If we want to reopen schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner.

'It is not going to go back to normal, we will have to maintain some level of social distancing - significant levels of social distancing - probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.'

It comes as another 693 people were yesterday confirmed to have died of COVID-19 in Britain, taking the number of victims to 29,427 and making Britain the worst-hit nation in Europe. 

And separate backdated figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the figure appears to have already been higher than 32,000 by April 24 - 10 days ago. 

The number of people dying each week during the UK's coronavirus crisis has been significantly higher - more than double in recent weeks - than the average number of deaths for this time of year

The number of people dying each week during the UK's coronavirus crisis has been significantly higher - more than double in recent weeks - than the average number of deaths for this time of year

In other developments in the UK's coronavirus battle today:

Neil Ferguson joins long list of famous names who flouted the lockdown

Professor Neil Ferguson, the scientist whose research helped usher in the lockdown, has resigned from his role as a key Government adviser after admitting that he had undermined social distancing rules by meeting his lover at his home.

But Prof Ferguson is not the first prominent figure to be caught breaching social-distancing restrictions amid the global coronavirus pandemic. 

- Dr Catherine Calderwood

Scotland's chief medical officer resigned in April after twice breaking lockdown restrictions in order to visit her second home, which was located more than an hour away from her main residence in Edinburgh.

Despite Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon backing Dr Calderwood to remain in her position, she ultimately decided to relinquish her role so as not to be a 'distraction' from the Government's social-distancing message.

- Robert Jenrick

The housing, communities and local government secretary was forced to explain himself after travelling more than an hour to visit his parents despite warning people to remain at home.

Mr Jenrick was also criticised for travelling 150 miles from his London property to his Herefordshire home from where he travelled to his parents in Shropshire.

However, he defended his actions, saying he went to deliver food and medicine to his isolating parents.

- Stephen Kinnock

The MP for Aberavon in South Wales was publicly shamed by police after travelling to London to celebrate his father's birthday.

After Mr Kinnock posted a photo on Twitter of himself practicing social distancing with his parents outside their home, South Wales Police replied: 'We know celebrating your Dad's birthday is a lovely thing to do, however this is not essential travel. We all have our part to play in this, we urge you to comply with (lockdown) restrictions, they are in place to keep us all safe. Thank you.'

  • Dominic Raab issued a thinly-veiled warning to Russia and China tonight as he lashed out at 'predatory' hackers targeting organisations involved in the fight against coronavirus;
  • At least 12 different strains of coronavirus were circulating in the UK in March - including one that has only ever been found in Britain, Government-funded study finds;
  • Rishi Sunak could reduce government furlough wage support from 80 per cent to 60 per cent in the months ahead as part of a plan to ease Britain back to work, it was claimed today;
  • Experts warned the NHS's new coronavirus track-and-trace app could be hijacked by trolls;
  • Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her own lockdown 'exit strategy' and suggested she will not let schools open until August; 
  • Cities and rural areas could be treated differently when coronavirus lockdown measures are eased, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser hinted today. 

That number is 42 per cent higher than the count announced by the Department of Health at the time, suggesting the current total could be higher than 40,000 - this would mean COVID-19 has killed more Britons in eight weeks than died over seven months during the Blitz bombings in World War Two.

Today's data confirms that more people have died of the coronavirus in the UK than in Italy, still considered to be the worst-hit country in Europe and had suffered 29,079 fatalities by this morning. Only the US has had more deaths than Britain - almost 70,000 - while there have been 25,600 in Spain and 25,200 in France.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today also announced 4,406 more cases of the life-threatening virus had been confirmed, taking the official size of the outbreak to 194,990 - but the true size of the UK's crisis is a mystery due to the controversial decision to abandon widespread testing early on.

In Downing Street's press conference, Mr Raab also lashed out at 'predatory' hackers targeting organisations involved in the fight against coronavirus, saying criminals and 'hostile states' were trying to take advantage of the crisis for their own 'malicious ends'.

Discussing the death toll, he added that the scale of the disaster in Britain was a 'massive tragedy' on a scale the country has never seen before. He refused to speculate on international comparisons.  

Meanwhile, Mr Raab warned that a blanket reopening of schools next month would risk a deadly second wave of coronavirus.

The Foreign Secretary dashed hopes of a widespread return after half-term, warning that it was too soon to even consider the move.

Speaking at the daily No 10 press briefing, Mr Raab said evidence from scientists indicated that opening all schools would lead to a 'very real risk' of a steep rise in transmission rates. 

The warning came just hours after Nicola Sturgeon said schools north of the border were unlikely to reopen in the foreseeable future.

Scotland's First Minister said reopening now would 'most likely' see hospitals north of the border 'overwhelmed' with coronavirus cases within two months. She warned it 'might not be possible at all ahead of the summer holidays'. 

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson told MPs there would be a 'phased approach' to reopening.

He said: 'We will take a phased approach in terms of reopening schools and we will always aim to give schools, parents and, of course, critically importantly, children the maximum notice in terms of when this is going to happen.'

Mr Raab said that it would not be a 'binary' situation where schools were either fully open or fully shut.

He added: 'At least to date the evidence has been that we wouldn't be able to open up all schools without a very real risk that the R rate – the transmission rate – would rise at such a level that we would risk a second spike.'

He said he had asked the Government's scientific advisers for the best options and would be guided by them.

Sources last night said ministers were still hopeful that some children could go back to school after half-term at the beginning of next month. However, they have ruled out making any return compulsory.

Sources told the Mail parents would not face fines if they refuse to send children back. 

Any return is likely to involve only some year groups going back to school at first to allow for greater social distancing in the classroom. Under normal circumstances schooling is compulsory, with parents facing £60 fines if they fail to send their children to school without good reason. Fines double to £120 if not paid within 21 days, and parents can face prosecution if they refuse to pay after 28 days.

Teaching unions have asked for guarantees that fines will be suspended during any back-to-school transition, when many children will still be told to stay at home.

Teachers yesterday warned they 'must not be used as an experiment', amid fears that resistance to returning to classrooms could render the reopening of schools impossible.

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2020-05-06 11:06:53Z
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Coronavirus: How might lockdown end and what will be the 'new normal'? - India Gone Viral

Man on foot pays for food at a drive-thru restaurant windowImage copyright
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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to announce on Sunday his plans to restart the economy and ease lockdown restrictions.

But what could everyday life be like?

When can I go shopping again?

High Street fashion chains and others closed during lockdown are waiting to hear how they might reopen.

Changing rooms could be closed and customers encouraged to shop alone, the British Retail Consortium suggests.

Next says it will prioritise reopening larger, out-of-town outlets, where social distancing is easier.

Some DIY stores, meanwhile, have already reopened – but they are accepting card payments only and have shorter trading hours.

And B&Q has banned under-16s.

But several retailers will be missing from the High Street altogether, the chairman of key-cutting company Timpson has warned.

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UK retail sales fell a record 5.1% in March, the steepest fall since the Office for National Statistics started collecting data, in 1996.

There is likely to be a bounceback – and bargains as managers try to shift stock.

But with more people working from home and going out less, it may not be as big as retailers need.

Will I be able to see my friends and family?

Not being able to meet up with family and friends is one of the toughest aspects of staying home.

When a grandmother asked a Downing Street briefing if being able to hug her grandchildren would be among the first changes, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the question “brought home the emotional impact” of lockdown and he hoped she could do it “as soon as possible”.

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The Scottish government, meanwhile, has set out options that would allow people to leave home more often, while staying within their local area and only mixing with their own household group.

It is also looking at whether a small group of friends or relatives could meet in “a group or ‘bubble'”.

But the UK’s chief medical adviser, Chris Whitty, has warned close contact with family may pose a risk to some vulnerable groups for some time.

What will change at my place of work?

Hot-desking could become a thing of the past, according to draft government proposals to bring UK businesses out of lockdown.

Companies will also need to look at staggering shifts, rethink how equipment is shared and plan safe walking routes for staff – in offices, on factory floors and at building sites.

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The issue of how businesses can secure personal protective equipment without competing with the NHS has raised concerns.

And unions say employers must be compelled to protect staff.

What will it be like on public transport?

Even though there’s likely to be fewer people using trains, trams and buses, keeping passengers apart will be difficult.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says businesses could be asked to stagger employees’ working hours, to stop rush-hour crowds.

But one rail boss has warned social distancing of any kind would be “extraordinarily difficult” to manage, while another has said it could reduce the capacity of trains by between 70% and 90%.

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A leaked Transport for London (TfL) report says for 2m (6ft) social distancing to be maintained only 50,000 passengers could board every 15 minutes, whereas before lockdown, peak hours would see 325,000 every 15 minutes.

The Scottish government, meanwhile, has recommended people wear face coverings on public transport.

Eurostar passengers are also required to cover their faces.

When will schools and universities return?

Children in England, Scotland and Wales may be able to make a “phased return” to schools, with only certain year groups attending.

Reports suggest primary schools and pupils in Years 10 and 12 – who take key exams in 2021 – would be prioritised.

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Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, meanwhile, has unveiled a paper suggesting pupils could attend school part-time, with “a blend of in-school and at-home learning”.

Across the UK, measures to keep pupils and teachers safe could include:

  • limiting class sizes
  • groups of pupils attending on different days
  • redesigned classrooms
  • staggered break times

Meanwhile, there is uncertainty over whether students will be able to go to university in person in September or whether they will be taught partially or completely online.

What do I need to know about the coronavirus?

When can I go to the gym or play sport with friends?

The lockdown has seen swimming pools, tennis courts, gyms and many other venues closed.

When pools reopen, it is likely fewer swimmers will be let in and for less time.

Breaks might be needed so pools can be disinfected, according to the Pool Management Group.

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The Lawn Tennis Association says it is talking to the government about how matches can resume but it is “too early to speculate”.

And England Golf says it is working to find the right conditions under which players can tee off.

Meanwhile, there is no word on when gyms will reopen or how they might enforce social-distancing and hygiene rules.

And the chances of being able to play team sports in the coming weeks look slim.

Currently, groups of more than two people who do not live together are banned and you can exercise in public only alone or with members of your household.

When can I go to the pub or visit the cinema?

Pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theatres could be among the last places to reopen.

Draft government guidance seen by BBC News says bar areas, seated areas in restaurants and cafes must remain closed even as the economy is opened up – and venues should serve takeaways only.

Last month, Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin said his chain had “for planning purposes” been assuming pubs may reopen in late June.

But deputy chief medical officer for England, Jenny Harries, has said mixing with people outside your household in a small environment such as a pub would not be a good idea.

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Meanwhile, Vue Cinemas boss Tim Richards is hopeful screens can reopen in mid-July, using social distancing measures.

But theatre producer Sir Cameron Mackintosh fears many theatres will not be able to stage musicals until next year.

Can I have a UK or foreign summer holiday?

Social distancing is a big challenge for the airports and airlines.

Heathrow boss John Holland-Kaye says it is “physically impossible”.

EasyJet plans to leave middle seats empty.

But Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary says this would be “idiotic”.

Air passengers may have to:

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps is also “actively looking” at quarantining people entering the UK.

But trade body Airlines UK says this would “effectively kill air travel”.

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Meanwhile, the government has said people should not book holidays at home or abroad until social-distancing rules are relaxed.

And Visit Britain predicts domestic UK tourism will see losses of more than £22bn in 2020.

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2020-05-06 10:01:02Z
52780766171506

Why are Welsh Assembly Members changing their name? - BBC South East Wales

On 6 May, the Welsh Assembly is undergoing a bit of a rebrand.

More than 20 years after its foundation, its name has changed and so has the title by which its 60 elected representatives are known.

The National Assembly for Wales will be known as Senedd Cymru - Welsh Parliament, while politicians will be called Members of the Senedd.

The revamp has been three years in the making and not without debate or controversy.

What will Assembly Members be called now?

Since the inception of the assembly in 1999, its representatives have been known as Assembly Members, or AM for short.

But under the name change, elected politicians will now be known as Members of the Senedd, which will be abbreviated to MS.

In Welsh the abbreviation will change to AS, for Aelodau o'r Senedd, which replaces the former title AC.

Why bother changing the name?

The assembly was born after a referendum in 1997, which led to some powers transferring to Wales.

The first elections were held in 1999 and the assembly moved into its current home, the Senedd building in Cardiff Bay, in 2006.

In the beginning, it couldn't make major changes to the legislation governing Wales, but that changed with the adoption of law-making powers in 2011.

A significant development was the Wales Bill in 2017, in which the Welsh Assembly gained the power to change its name.

Muppets not wanted

The re-brand follows a public consultation to find a new name for the assembly.

About 3,000 people were surveyed, and about 75% of participants voted for the name Welsh Parliament.

However, concerns were raised over the name, as it was feared members could become subject to ridicule because the planned abbreviation - MWP for Member of the Welsh Parliament - is the first syllable of the Welsh word for muppet.

Why does it have a bilingual name?

It is a compromise.

Welsh Parliament was proposed by former assembly Tory leader Andrew RT Davies in 2012, but Presiding Officer Elin Jones, who looks after the day-to-day running of the assembly, wanted the Welsh-only name Senedd, which is also the name of the building that houses the debating chamber.

That was backed by several celebrities, including actor Michael Sheen, Catatonia singer Cerys Matthews and rugby referee Nigel Owens.

But it split the assembly, Plaid Cymru and some Labour backbenchers supported it, but it was opposed by the Conservatives, who said the new name should celebrate the Welsh and English language. The Welsh Government also backed a bilingual name.

AMs backed the bilingual name in a vote in October 2019 and voted against an amendment from Plaid Cymru AM Rhun ap Iowerth a month later for the assembly to go by Senedd Cymru only.

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2020-05-06 08:44:17Z
52780768004107

Coronavirus LIVE: Health Secretary Matt Hancock answers questions from Sky News readers and viewers - Sky News

ANALYSIS: Out of the gloom the ONS COVID figures did some have some good news

Amid the relentless gloom in the numbers on Britain's COVID-19 ordeal, there were a couple of rare nuggets of good news buried in today's Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures on the disease's death toll, writes our economics editor Ed Conway.

The first is that the number of people dying in England and Wales, both of COVID-19 and other causes, has now peaked and is falling for the first time since the pandemic hit.

This is, of course, not the first time we have heard something along those lines. The prime minister said as much last week and the official numbers we get from the government each day seem to bear that out.

Yet (and this is very important) those figures do not tell the full story.

For, confusingly, there are broadly speaking three ways of counting the number of people who have lost their lives to the disease.

Read the full piece here.

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2020-05-06 08:20:34Z
52780767652699

Selasa, 05 Mei 2020

Climate change: Could the coronavirus crisis spur a green recovery? - BBC News

The Covid-19 lockdown has cut climate change emissions - for now. But some governments want to go further by harnessing their economic recovery plans to boost low-carbon industries. Their slogan is "Build Back Better", but can they succeed?

I've just had a light bulb moment. The feisty little wren chirping loudly in the matted ivy outside my back door is telling us something important about global climate change.

That's because, intertwined with the melodious notes of a robin, I can actually hear its song clearly.

Normally, both birds are muffled by the insistent rumble of traffic, but the din has been all but extinguished in the peace of lockdown.

The drop in traffic is a major contributor to the fall in planet-warming CO2 emissions we've witnessed globally.

Before the Covid-19 crisis, we accepted the dominance of traffic noise as an inevitable consequence of city living.

Now, we have sampled an alternative urban ambience.

Governments currently face a stark choice: bail out polluting businesses, using that as leverage to impose environmentally-minded reforms, or let them return to their carbon-intensive activities as an economic quick fix.

But many members of the public have little desire to return to the state of affairs before lockdown.

In a poll, a fifth of members of the motoring group the AA, said they would work more from home in future.

This has implications for the UK government's £28bn road-building programme which assumes that traffic will rise by 1% per year - a conjecture that now looks unlikely.

The stay-at-home trend will be offset somewhat by nervous public transport users shunning trains for fear of infection, and by long-distance commuters who might decide that if they only need to visit the office three days a week, they'll buy a home even further away.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

The AA, which for years was seen as the voice of motorists, has asked the government to think again about its £28bn road expansion. Its president, Edmund King, has suggested the money would be better spent on improving broadband

Another likely winner from the crisis is the movement fighting to turn city streets over to pedestrians and cyclists.

This has already happened in places like Paris, which is rolling out 650km of "corona cycle-ways", and Milan, which has a programme to prioritise pedestrians and cyclists.

The determination to seize the moment for environmental change stretches further than the transport sector.

The UK is one of several nations looking to reboot its environmental strategy by calling in favours from private industry. After all, it was government which bailed out employers when the crunch came in March. The catchphrase is "Build Back Better".

But it would seem to face a direct challenge in the shape of China and the US. The economies of both these superpowers have been savaged by the effects of coronavirus.

They are desperate to get back to pre-virus levels of output, and the surest means of doing so is through tried and trusted climate warming fossil fuels.

For those seeking a greener way out of the Covid-19 slump, renewable energy will help, along with electric vehicle charging points and broadband.

Frans Timmermans, vice president of the European Commission, is on the same track. He is leading work on a Green Deal to make the EU's economy sustainable and says that not a single Euro should be spent propping up old, dirty industries.

All Covid-19 recovery investment should go towards commerce that either helps reduce carbon emissions or promotes digital business, he insists.

But some MEPs from parties on the right warn that the pandemic will have "far-reaching" economic and social consequences.

They insist the EU must scale back its pre-crisis climate ambitions.

That's led some governments, like Germany and the UK, to offer hand-outs to polluting industries without imposing green conditions.

In the UK, the issue is causing contortions among politicians torn between saving existing jobs and conserving the planet.

MPs from the Liberal Democrats - thought of as one of the "greenest" UK parties - have joined other parliamentarians in demanding a conditional rescue for the airline industry.

They say that if ministers don't step in, tens of thousands of jobs will be lost.

But the firms should promise to off-set their emissions by, for example, planting trees.

Off-setting is hugely contentious. Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace, argues: "Any government bailout should focus on workers, not the industry itself.

"It should be conditional on the industry agreeing to shrink until - if ever - low-carbon technology is available - which isn't now."

One direction?

That begs a question: which industries should qualify for support? Should cash go exclusively to self-evidently green sectors like solar power - or to dirty firms trying to clean up?

Take the fossil fuel firms that pay our pension dividends by drilling for the stuff that's over-heating the world.

The UK's oil and gas industry warns that 30,000 jobs could be lost because of the pandemic and the current low oil price.

But why would governments support a commodity that's fuelling the climate crisis, which is judged by the UN to be deeper than the Covid-19 crisis?

Perhaps it's not that simple. Lord Stern, the former Treasury chief who's now a climate expert, told me each firm should be judged on its trajectory, not on its current state.

"The oil and gas industries are producing stuff you want to run down very quickly," he said. "But you do see some companies - like BP and Shell - which are declaring they are moving in a direction where they want to be going zero carbon.

"So, you can't be indiscriminate or dogmatic. You have to look where the industry is going."

At least UK environmentalists are dealing with firms that agree on the need to tackle climate change.

In the US, some fossil fuel firms have been determined to pursue government bail-outs without strings binding them to a less polluting future.

The Democratic Party has a long-standing proposal for a "Green New Deal" to promote clean technology. But President Donald Trump has minimised the importance of climate change. He has promised to help struggling fossil fuel firms, although his efforts have not taken root in a major way.

He tweeted:

Then there's China. In 2015, its leaders were persuaded by President Barack Obama to make major climate change commitments as part of the Paris climate agreement.

Since then, China has suffered job losses and fuel shortages. Beijing has resorted to a quick fix for the economy by building coal-fired power plants.

The green think tank Global Energy Monitor says the number of plants China approved in the first three weeks of March 2020 - equivalent to 7,960 megawatts (MW) - was more than the number agreed in the whole of 2019 (6,310 MW).

That doesn't take into account China's estimated $1 trillion investment in its "Belt and Road" initiative to build huge, carbon-intensive infrastructure projects across developing countries.

Unless China and President Trump change their spots (or the Democratic candidate wins the US election), Europe's Build Back Better campaign won't be enough to protect the increasingly fragile climate, even if it does engineer a green recovery.

And we have a lesson from history. Nick Robins from the London School of Economics (LSE) estimates that in the global financial crisis of 2008 just 16% of global stimulus plans were green - mainly because China invested massively in fossil fuel projects.

He tells me: "If we have any hope of combating climate change, we must make absolutely sure we do it better this time."

Follow Roger on Twitter.

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2020-05-06 00:28:17Z
CBMiNWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jb20vbmV3cy9zY2llbmNlLWVudmlyb25tZW50LTUyNDg4MTM00gE5aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmJjLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FtcC9zY2llbmNlLWVudmlyb25tZW50LTUyNDg4MTM0

Climate change: Could the coronavirus crisis spur a green recovery? - BBC News

The Covid-19 lockdown has cut climate change emissions - for now. But some governments want to go further by harnessing their economic recovery plans to boost low-carbon industries. Their slogan is "Build Back Better", but can they succeed?

I've just had a light bulb moment. The feisty little wren chirping loudly in the matted ivy outside my back door is telling us something important about global climate change.

That's because, intertwined with the melodious notes of a robin, I can actually hear its song clearly.

Normally, both birds are muffled by the insistent rumble of traffic, but the din has been all but extinguished in the peace of lockdown.

The drop in traffic is a major contributor to the fall in planet-warming CO2 emissions we've witnessed globally.

Before the Covid-19 crisis, we accepted the dominance of traffic noise as an inevitable consequence of city living.

Now, we have sampled an alternative urban ambience.

Governments currently face a stark choice: bail out polluting businesses, using that as leverage to impose environmentally-minded reforms, or let them return to their carbon-intensive activities as an economic quick fix.

But many members of the public have little desire to return to the state of affairs before lockdown.

In a poll, a fifth of members of the motoring group the AA, said they would work more from home in future.

This has implications for the UK government's £28bn road-building programme which assumes that traffic will rise by 1% per year - a conjecture that now looks unlikely.

The stay-at-home trend will be offset somewhat by nervous public transport users shunning trains for fear of infection, and by long-distance commuters who might decide that if they only need to visit the office three days a week, they'll buy a home even further away.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

The AA, which for years was seen as the voice of motorists, has asked the government to think again about its £28bn road expansion. Its president, Edmund King, has suggested the money would be better spent on improving broadband

Another likely winner from the crisis is the movement fighting to turn city streets over to pedestrians and cyclists.

This has already happened in places like Paris, which is rolling out 650km of "corona cycle-ways", and Milan, which has a programme to prioritise pedestrians and cyclists.

The determination to seize the moment for environmental change stretches further than the transport sector.

The UK is one of several nations looking to reboot its environmental strategy by calling in favours from private industry. After all, it was government which bailed out employers when the crunch came in March. The catchphrase is "Build Back Better".

But it would seem to face a direct challenge in the shape of China and the US. The economies of both these superpowers have been savaged by the effects of coronavirus.

They are desperate to get back to pre-virus levels of output, and the surest means of doing so is through tried and trusted climate warming fossil fuels.

For those seeking a greener way out of the Covid-19 slump, renewable energy will help, along with electric vehicle charging points and broadband.

Frans Timmermans, vice president of the European Commission, is on the same track. He is leading work on a Green Deal to make the EU's economy sustainable and says that not a single Euro should be spent propping up old, dirty industries.

All Covid-19 recovery investment should go towards commerce that either helps reduce carbon emissions or promotes digital business, he insists.

But some MEPs from parties on the right warn that the pandemic will have "far-reaching" economic and social consequences.

They insist the EU must scale back its pre-crisis climate ambitions.

That's led some governments, like Germany and the UK, to offer hand-outs to polluting industries without imposing green conditions.

In the UK, the issue is causing contortions among politicians torn between saving existing jobs and conserving the planet.

MPs from the Liberal Democrats - thought of as one of the "greenest" UK parties - have joined other parliamentarians in demanding a conditional rescue for the airline industry.

They say that if ministers don't step in, tens of thousands of jobs will be lost.

But the firms should promise to off-set their emissions by, for example, planting trees.

Off-setting is hugely contentious. Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace, argues: "Any government bailout should focus on workers, not the industry itself.

"It should be conditional on the industry agreeing to shrink until - if ever - low-carbon technology is available - which isn't now."

One direction?

That begs a question: which industries should qualify for support? Should cash go exclusively to self-evidently green sectors like solar power - or to dirty firms trying to clean up?

Take the fossil fuel firms that pay our pension dividends by drilling for the stuff that's over-heating the world.

The UK's oil and gas industry warns that 30,000 jobs could be lost because of the pandemic and the current low oil price.

But why would governments support a commodity that's fuelling the climate crisis, which is judged by the UN to be deeper than the Covid-19 crisis?

Perhaps it's not that simple. Lord Stern, the former Treasury chief who's now a climate expert, told me each firm should be judged on its trajectory, not on its current state.

"The oil and gas industries are producing stuff you want to run down very quickly," he said. "But you do see some companies - like BP and Shell - which are declaring they are moving in a direction where they want to be going zero carbon.

"So, you can't be indiscriminate or dogmatic. You have to look where the industry is going."

At least UK environmentalists are dealing with firms that agree on the need to tackle climate change.

In the US, some fossil fuel firms have been determined to pursue government bail-outs without strings binding them to a less polluting future.

The Democratic Party has a long-standing proposal for a "Green New Deal" to promote clean technology. But President Donald Trump has minimised the importance of climate change. He has promised to help struggling fossil fuel firms, although his efforts have not taken root in a major way.

He tweeted:

Then there's China. In 2015, its leaders were persuaded by President Barack Obama to make major climate change commitments as part of the Paris climate agreement.

Since then, China has suffered job losses and fuel shortages. Beijing has resorted to a quick fix for the economy by building coal-fired power plants.

The green think tank Global Energy Monitor says the number of plants China approved in the first three weeks of March 2020 - equivalent to 7,960 megawatts (MW) - was more than the number agreed in the whole of 2019 (6,310 MW).

That doesn't take into account China's estimated $1 trillion investment in its "Belt and Road" initiative to build huge, carbon-intensive infrastructure projects across developing countries.

Unless China and President Trump change their spots (or the Democratic candidate wins the US election), Europe's Build Back Better campaign won't be enough to protect the increasingly fragile climate, even if it does engineer a green recovery.

And we have a lesson from history. Nick Robins from the London School of Economics (LSE) estimates that in the global financial crisis of 2008 just 16% of global stimulus plans were green - mainly because China invested massively in fossil fuel projects.

He tells me: "If we have any hope of combating climate change, we must make absolutely sure we do it better this time."

Follow Roger on Twitter.

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2020-05-06 00:28:14Z
52780762961466

Water buffalo attack leaves one dead and two hurt in Usk - BBC News

A man has died after a water buffalo attacked three people at a commercial property.

The 57-year-old man was pronounced dead at the scene, after police officers were called to the address at Gwehelog, near Usk, Monmouthshire.

A man, 19, was also critically injured and taken to Cardiff's University Hospital of Wales by air ambulance.

A woman, 22, suffered a serious leg injury and is being treated at Newport's Royal Gwent Hospital.

Gwent Police said they were called to the property at about 14:50 BST on Tuesday and received support from the National Police Air Service.

The water buffalo has been destroyed.

A neighbour said the herd were a familiar sight on the farm and were often seen in the fields with the horses.

They added the buffalo always appeared to be quite quiet, and that the owners had been seen stroking them.

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2020-05-05 21:47:36Z
52780767505265