Coronavirus: UK could ban mass gatherings from next week - BBC News

Mass gatherings could be banned in the UK from as early as next weekend as the outbreak of coronavirus intensifies.

A government source said ministers were now drawing up plans for the move - to ease pressure on emergency services.

It came hours after the government's chief scientific advisor insisted it was not the right time to shut down big events.

Scores of major sporting and cultural events have already been cancelled in response to the pandemic.

The number of confirmed cases of the virus in the UK rose to 798 on Friday and a total of 11 people have died.

But the government estimates the true number of cases to be around 5,000 to 10,000 around the UK.

It is understood ministers are working on plans to stop various types of public events.

The source said: "There are many complex considerations to make all these measures as effective as possible.

"We will make the right decisions at the right time based on the best scientific evidence."

It is thought a ban could start to take effect as early as next weekend, although exact timescales are not clear.

There has been criticism of the government's handling of the crisis, including from former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who described its previous decision to hold off cancelling large gatherings as "concerning".

Acting Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey told BBC Newsnight that the government's "rapid change" in tactic following the cancellation of sporting events suggested it was "playing catch-up with the rest of British society".

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth welcomed the move but urged the government to be "clear" about its plans.

"If that means publishing the scientific modelling so that all the experts can analyse it and peer review it and stress test it, if that maintains public confidence, that's an important step," the Labour MP told Newsnight.

The government's action plan - published last week - did raise the possibility of reducing the number of large-scale gatherings.

But the most recent tactics, announced on Thursday, advised people to self-isolate for seven days if they have a cough or fever, with no advice to avoid large gatherings.

Speaking on Friday, the UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said shutting down mass events would not have a "big effect" on transmission rates - though he did not rule out such a move going forward.

Whitehall sources say the government's approach has not changed but that there were concerns about the burden that large events might put on health services and the police.

Prominent events still set to go ahead include the Grand National in April, the 75th anniversary VE Day commemorations and Chelsea Flower Show in May, and Glastonbury Festival in June.

• British football suspended until 3 April

• Radio 1 Big Weekend cancelled due to coronavirus
• Catholic churches preparing to suspend Mass

Emergency legislation - including compensation for organisations affected by a temporary ban on big events - is due to be published next week.

Many sports bodies did not wait for a government directive and have already suspended competitions.

Football authorities suspended all top-flight matches until early April, while Saturday's Wales v Scotland Six Nations rugby match was suspended and England's cricket tour of Sri Lanka was called off.

The Scottish government has already advised that gatherings of more than 500 people should be cancelled from next week.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

English local and mayoral elections, planned for May, are being postponed for a year until May 2021.

Small businesses such as music venues are also starting to feel the squeeze.

Music venue owner Vince Power told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he had a sell-out show on Friday night near London's Portobello Road, but fewer than half of the 550 people who had bought tickets showed up.

"I think people are scared," Mr Power said.

"I feel sad about the whole thing," he added, blaming the "uncertainty" and lack of direction given to small businesses. "The news keeps changing every day."

Bands are also cancelling, he said. "They are just saying they are just unsure, they don't know... they have got no real reason."

Mr Power, whose venues hold between 100 and about 500 guests, said: "Venues are sold out but people are not coming."

Mr Power warned that his business "can't really last very long" - just a few weeks.

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2020-03-14 10:12:46Z
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Britain takes different approach to coronavirus outbreak, leaving some asking why - NBC News

LONDON — No one is sugarcoating the coronavirus in the United Kingdom.

Experts in the government have revealed that as many as 10,000 might already be infected in the country, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning Thursday, "I must level with you, the British public: Many more families are going to lose their loved ones before their time."

And yet the U.K. is becoming increasingly isolated in its response to the pandemic. It is one of the only major countries of Western Europe to impose few, if any, restrictions on daily life.

The U.K.'s tactics, which are backed by its top team of epidemiologists and behavioral psychologists, have left many here asking: Why do our experts disagree with those in most other countries?

March 10, 202000:58

The disparity has also highlighted that while "flatten the curve" has become something of a mantra, there is considerable disagreement among experts about the best way to achieve that.

The U.K. has emerged somewhat out on its own in the international community.

Thursday brought a major shift in its government strategy, moving from the "contain" to the "delay" phase of its plan. That effectively concedes that the virus is here, that it will spread rapidly and widely through society, and the focus should be on slowing it down.

The U.K's Electoral Commission said Friday it was postponing more than 300 local elections for 12 months, including the contest to be London mayor which was due to be held on May 7.

But still, the government did not introduce measures to close schools, ban large gatherings or sporting events, or impose restrictions on travel, like some had predicted it might.

"The most important thing individuals can do to protect themselves remains washing their hands more often," updated guidelines read. "Make sure you cough or sneeze into a tissue, put it in a bin and wash your hands."

Let our news meet your inbox. The news and stories that matters, delivered weekday mornings.

Anyone with a fever or a new, persistent cough is being told to stay at home and self-isolate for seven days. Many observers were surprised that the guidance did not go further.

For example, until Thursday night, England's domestic soccer competition, the Premier League, was the only major league in Europe still going ahead without any disruption. It took an elite-level coach, Arsenal's Mikel Arteta, to test positive for the virus for officials to call an emergency meeting which led to a suspension of matches Friday until at least early April.

Contrast this with the United States, where there have been widespread cancellations, from Broadway to the NBA. Some American schools and colleges have shuttered, and President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping international travel bans and declared a national emergency.

Empty shelves in the toilet roll/kitchen towel aisle of a supermarket in London on Friday as consumers worry about product shortages, leading to the stockpiling of household products due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus.Justin Tallis / AFP - Getty Images

In Italy, the worst-hit country outside of China, public life has all but shut down, with bars and restaurants closed for two weeks and police issuing fines to anyone caught in certain areas without good reason.

Across Europe, from France and Germany to Norway and Ireland, schools have been closed, sporting events have been canceled.

Britain has taken a different tack.

Sir Patrick Vallance, U.K.'s chief scientific adviser, defended the government’s strategy Friday, telling the BBC that instructing people with a cough or a fever to self-isolate would have the “biggest impact” in tackling the coronavirus.

Vallance said people were more likely to get infected from a family member or a friend in a small place than in a big place with lots of people. And asked why the government hadn't shut down schools, he said the role of children in spreading the disease was "less clear."

“It’s inconceivable that those children are not going to mix anyway and, of course, many of them may be sent to be looked after by their grandparents during that period,” he added.

Vallance told Sky News said the government hoped to create “herd immunity” in the U.K. to protect the country from future outbreaks. He said achieving this would involve around 60 percent of the U.K.'s 66 million people caching the virus.

"Communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this longer term," he said.

Not all British health experts and policymakers agree with the government’s assessment of how to tackle the outbreak.

A "Do Not Enter sign" and National Health Service information about the coronavirus is displayed at the entrance to a doctors surgery in north London on Friday. John Sibley / Reuters

“The U.K. is on the edge of an avoidable calamity,” tweeted Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of The Lancet, a general medical journal.

"Read the Italian experience. There are critical lessons here that the UK government either isn’t aware of or is ignoring," he said.

"We need immediate and assertive social distancing and closure policies. We need to prepare the NHS. This is a serious plea," he added, referring to Britain's much-beloved National Health Service.

Former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt also criticized the government’s strategy.

“I think it is surprising and cornering that we’re not doing any of it at all when we have just four weeks before we get to the stage that Italy is at,” he told BBC’s Newsnight program Thursday.

“You would have thought that every single thing we do in those four weeks would be to slow the spread of people catching the virus.”

Alexander Smith

Alexander Smith is a senior reporter for NBC News Digital based in London.

Saphora Smith

Saphora Smith is a London-based reporter for NBC News Digital. 

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2020-03-14 09:10:57Z
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Europe travel ban: Will it be possible to sneak into the US via the UK? - CNN

(CNN) — President Trump's recently announced travel ban prevents many non-Americans flying from Europe to the US, but does leaving the UK and Ireland off the restricted list leave a back door open to sneak through?

In force from midnight on March 13, the restriction affects travelers coming from any of the 26 countries making up the Schengen area -- an open border zone within Europe. It also includes people who've been in those countries within the past 14 days.

As soon as the surprise coronavirus-related measure was announced late Wednesday, questions started to be asked about whether travelers could simply hop on a flight or a Eurostar train to the UK and then connect to the States from there, since links between the UK, Ireland and Schengen are currently, for the most part, unrestricted.

When you're an EU resident traveling within the Schengen zone, your passport doesn't get stamped. So if there's no passport stamp to say you were ever there, who would know?

The answer is, apparently, that the United States would certainly know. And any attempt to lie about it to gain entry would be treated as a crime.

"If you take the Eurostar to London, and then try to fly to the US, you are covered by the suspension having come from a Schengen destination within 14 days -- unless you stay in London for 14 days," advises CNN travel and aviation expert Richard Quest.

The consequences of breaking the ban could be severe.

"An alien who circumvents the application of this proclamation through fraud, willful misrepresentation of a material fact, or illegal entry shall be a priority for removal by the Department of Homeland Security," is the official statement from the White House.

Airlines are going to be double checking passengers' recent movements and will be on the look out for anyone trying to bypass the new rules, according to a spokesperson for London's Heathrow Airport.

CNN understands that passengers will be required to fill out these details on their ESTA -- or Electronic System for Travel Authorization form. Lying on your ESTA form is a criminal offense.

It's not immediately clear what happens if passengers are traveling on a pre-existing ESTA.

"We can confirm airlines will be verifying passengers' immediate travel histories before departure from the UK to ensure travelers can make a safe onwards journey," the Heathrow spokesperson said.

"We continue to work closely with the government, Public Health England, Border Force, and airlines to ensure the safety of our passengers, colleagues and the wider UK."

Flight operational changes

Travelers are questioning how the new European travel ban will work in actuality.

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP via Getty Images

The new travel ban brings with it uncertain times for those hoping to travel between Europe and the United States in the near future.

Even if passengers are US citizens and exempt from the ban, they could struggle to find flights between the Schengen zone and the United States.

Low cost carrier Norwegian has said it's grounding 40% of its long-haul fleet and canceling up to 25% of its short-haul flights until the end of May.

The airline said all routes between London Gatwick airport and the United States will operate "as normal."

"Our goal is to reroute as many of our customers as possible through London during this difficult period," says a Norwegian spokesperson.

Meanwhile, Delta said it will operate nearly a full schedule of flights from continental Europe to US gateways until March 15 "to ensure eligible customers can return to the United States."

From next week the airline said it will fly "a significantly reduced US-Europe schedule while monitoring customer demand."

Delta's change fees have been waived until the end of May.

United Airlines will also waive fees for travelers, until April 30. Regular scheduling will take place until March 19, after that the airline says it expects to fly daily to Zurich, Brussels, Paris, Amsterdam, Manchester and Edinburgh.

United also expects to run regular flights to Frankfurt and Munich, a less than daily service to Lisbon -- and maintain 18 flights to and from London, and three to Dublin.

Air France plans to continue to serve several airports that are among those approved for health screening.

SWISS also said it was preparing a special reduced flight timetable, and will only serve Chicago and Newark.

The Lufthansa group announced that its airlines will continue to serve US destinations from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Belgium.

KLM said in a statement that there were plans to "examine on a daily basis whether adjustments to the network are necessary."

The Dutch airline said it plans to "maintain the network to destinations in the US where passengers are screened for the next two weeks as long as possible, also to give customers the opportunity to travel home."

Fear of canceled flights

While US nationals and those exempt from the ban don't have to return to the United States right away, the shaky status of commercial aviation and rising prices meant many have opted to leave as soon as possible -- some via the UK.

Molly Butcher, 56, scrambled from Amsterdam to head to New York via Heathrow on Friday, paying $2,800 to fly a day earlier. Flying direct from the Netherlands would've cost her $6,000.

"We were in Amsterdam and we decided to change 'cause we thought we just wanted to get home just in case he [Trump] changes it and the UK is not exempt anymore," she told CNN.

"We're going to try to get the money back. I talked to several people on the Eurostar today, one family, four of them, paid $7,000."

"On the Eurostar it was pretty full, I'm assuming people were trying to get back out of London 'cause the ban isn't here but it's in Amsterdam and other places."

Julie Blades, 55, traveling to Chicago with her 21-year-old son Jack Colombo, said she also rerouted via London after canceling her scheduled American Airlines flight home from Paris due to leave Saturday.

"I don't want to get stuck here," she said. "The financial ramifications of getting stuck here... and I have at kid at home... I'm not one to panic. I'm worried for me and him too."

CNN's Vasco Cotovio, Eoin McSweeney and Marnie Hunter contributed to this report.

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2020-03-13 15:45:16Z
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What does Britain know about coronavirus that the rest of Europe doesn't? - CNN

Flanked by the country's chief scientific and medical advisers, the Prime Minister announced that his government was moving to the "delay" phase of its plan to tackle the outbreak, and warned Britons that they were facing their "worst public health crisis for a generation" and should be prepared "to lose loved ones before their time."

And yet, faced with such grave prospects, would the UK be taking the same stringent precautions as other affected countries? No, was the answer. At least not for now.

The British government has repeatedly said it does not believe that banning large-scale gatherings and closing schools -- like Italy, France, Germany and Spain have done -- would be effective in preventing the spread of the disease.

This comes despite the fact that parts of the British Isles, including the Republic of Ireland and Scotland (which is in the UK but has a separate healthcare system), are now emulating their continental neighbors.

The reason the UK has held off stricter "social distancing" measures appears to be rooted in the government's prediction that the outbreak may not peak until 14 weeks from now -- and that people will not be willing to drastically alter their ways of life and stick to the new rules for over three months, so there's little point imposing more restrictions just yet.

The latest recommendation for Britons is to self-isolate for seven days if they begin to experience a persistent cough or high temperature, and to continue with rigorous hygiene like frequently washing their hands and disinfecting surfaces.

Government ministers claim their decisions are being led purely by science. That science, they say, currently suggests that it would be beneficial for the country to build up some sort of herd immunity to the novel coronavirus strain in the long run. In short, authorities do want some Britons to get the bug, especially since for many, its symptoms will not be particularly debilitating.

The approach has divided opinion in the medical community. Some experts have accused Johnson of failing to grasp the severity of the situation, while others have praised the government for refusing to bow to continent-wide pressure to clamp down on the public's movements.

As of Friday, the number of confirmed cases in the UK stood at 798, with 10 deaths. However, the government's chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance has admitted it was possible that 5,000 to 10,000 people may already be infected. And with testing capacity now about to be ramped up to 10,000 people a day, numbers will surely rise.

Medics warn of complacency

Government scientists said they have noticed that the virus typically results in a mild infection initially for patients with no underlying health conditions, which lasts about five days, but for the elderly or infirm, the pathogen enters a second phase thereafter, prompting an immune response that causes much of the damage that kills.

The experts' hope is that the UK's new plan will push the disease's peak past the traditional end of the flu season in April and into the summer, when the country's hospitals will be under less strain.

But many prominent members of the medical community are unconvinced by the government's approach. Doctors on the front line of intensive care units have warned about the potential lack of respirators, as seen in Italy and China when cases peaked there, and said that if staff become sick themselves, access to experienced labor could become a problem.

The editor-in-chief of the influential journal The Lancet criticized the UK's response to the crisis. "To avoid an unmanageable catastrophe in the UK, we need to be honest about what seems likely to happen in coming weeks. We need urgent surge capacity in intensive care. The NHS is not prepared," Richard Horton tweeted Thursday.

"I am not being alarmist. What is happening in Italy is real and taking place now. Our government is not preparing us for that reality. We need immediate and assertive social distancing and closure policies. We need to prepare the NHS. This is a serious plea."

For a country that until fairly recently routinely imposed quarantines on family pets, it's ironic that Johnson's "island mentality" -- made famous by his enthusiastic support for leaving the European Union -- seems not to stretch to public health, for ministers dismissed the suggestion Britain could shut its borders as US President Donald Trump ordered this week.

'He's not doing a Trump'

Some scientists did offer words of support for the UK's measures.

"I am the first to admit that I'm not Boris Johnson's biggest fan. But I'm relatively impressed that unlike other political leaders, who've kind of bowed to the pressure of each other and their populations to implement school closures -- which we don't have enough evidence to know if it will make a difference or not -- Johnson is listening to the current evidence that's out there," Dr. Clare Wenham, assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics, told CNN.

"He's not doing a Trump and shutting down borders, which we know will have no effect. He's taking a rather measured approach now -- but yes, it's a gamble."

Wenham added that she believed the government's priority was to avoid panic, and ensure the public's cooperation with prevention measures.

"It's a political gamble if they get it wrong. If all the countries that implemented school closures and mass travel and mass gatherings see reductions in rates, and the rates in the UK are soaring -- that's a gamble," she said.

"We know for example that shutting schools works for influenza because children are super-spreaders. We don't know if that's true for coronavirus yet. But I think the government is saying 'look, we don't yet know if kids are super-spreaders. So, why cause all the havoc of disrupting people's lives?'"

Keith Neal, emeritus professor in the epidemiology of infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, also said he backed moves to contain the outbreak.

"The plans are sensible, it is very easy to say more needs to be done, but there is little evidence to make any decision," he told PA Media.

But former health secretary Jeremy Hunt told the BBC that many people "will be surprised and concerned" by the lack of action in controlling movements. "I think it is surprising and concerning that we're not doing any of it at all when we have just four weeks before we get to the stage that Italy is at.

"You would have thought that every single thing we do in that four weeks would be designed to slow the spread of people catching the virus."

'Spray, pay and pray'

Where the government has been more comfortable making decisive moves is on the economy.

New Chancellor Rishi Sunak this week put emergency funds on the table in his maiden budget -- not just to shore up the UK's National Health Service at a time of emergency, but also to shield small- to medium-sized businesses and the "gig economy," replete with freelancers, from the effects of having staff off sick or working from home in isolation.

In a coordinated approach, the Bank of England also cut rates and announced stimulus.

The strategy was dubbed "Spray, pay and pray" by the Financial Times' Lex column.

And therein lies the clue: Downing Street seems to think the panic caused by the new strain of the virus -- or Covid-19 as it has become known -- could be more dangerous in the long run than the actual illness itself.

Whether the gamble of "keeping calm and carrying on" in the face of the coronavirus is the appropriate approach, only time will tell.

Tara John contributed to this report.

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2020-03-13 15:14:00Z
52780660066279

Coronavirus: UK measures defended amid criticism - BBC News

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Telling those with a high temperature or cough to self-isolate for a week will have the "biggest impact" in the fight against coronavirus, the UK's chief science adviser says.

Sir Patrick Vallance said the new advice was a "big intervention", amid criticism of the government's plan to combat the virus.

The UK has moved from "containing" the coronavirus to "delaying" it.

But ex-health secretary Jeremy Hunt called for more stringent measures.

All professional football leagues in England, and professional and grassroots games in Scotland, have been suspended until at least 3 April.

The Foreign Office has advised against all but essential travel to some areas of Spain, including Madrid.

There have been 596 confirmed cases across the UK, but health officials have said they believe the actual number of people infected could be between 5,000 and 10,000.

In total, 10 people have now died in the UK with the virus.

Jeremy Hunt told BBC Newsnight the decision to hold off cancelling large gatherings was "surprising and concerning" when we have "four weeks before we get to the stage that Italy is at".

Much of Italy - the world's worst-hit country after China - is currently in lockdown as its tally of deaths has topped 1,000.

"You would have thought that every single thing we do in that four weeks would be designed to slow the spread of people catching the virus," added Mr Hunt, who was health secretary for six years and quit as foreign secretary in July.

But Sir Patrick told the BBC: "The most likely place you are going to get an infection from is a family member or friend in a small space, not in a big space."

Defending the new tactics, he said: "The first set of measures are actually rather large."

"We have just asked a lot of people to isolate, stay at home, if they have got symptoms of mild upper respiratory tract infection, cough or fever. That is a big change," he added.

"We have also talked about the possibility of whole households staying at home if one person has got [coronavirus] - that may come in later.

"And importantly we are also talking about that during the peak when people are most likely to get infected, the elderly and vulnerable are properly protected. This is not a short-term thing, it is going to go on for weeks."

He said that closing schools was a "very effective way of dealing with pandemic flu" but that with this coronavirus, "the role of children is less clear in terms of spreading the disease".

Sir Patrick said it is hoped the government's approach will create a "herd immunity in the UK".

"Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely," he said.

"Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.

"At the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it."

He also said the new coronavirus is likely to become "an annual seasonal infection".

'Keep calm and carry on'

The worst health crisis in a generation. Lives will be lost. All this is true. But what got missed in the government's coronavirus message - understandably, given the scale of the challenge - is that we should also get on with our lives.

We should keep calm and carry on (while following the advice, of course). At the moment, there are two basic things to do - wash our hands regularly and isolate if we develop symptoms.

We should still go out, play sport, attend events and keep children in school. Why? Short of never leaving your home and the rest of the household following suit, it's impossible to eliminate the risk of getting the virus. It's circulating.

Even if you skip your trip to a concert or the theatre, you may well catch it on your way to work or when you do the weekly shop.

This virus is with us now. And it will be for the foreseeable future. Only when we have a vaccine or if herd immunity develops - if enough of the population is exposed to it - will we have protection.

There will no doubt be a time when drastic measures are needed - to flatten the peak, protect the most vulnerable at the time of highest risk and stop the NHS getting overwhelmed - but it's not now. That's the clear message.

Mr Hunt, chair of the Commons health and social care committee, said countries who appeared to have been successful in turning back the virus had "moved very early" on introducing social distancing.

Sir Patrick said that new advice for care homes would become important as the epidemic progressed.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new measures aimed at protecting the elderly and those most vulnerable to the disease - including that anyone with a persistent cough or high temperature should self-isolate for a week.

The PM said there was no need to close schools at the moment, saying "the scientific advice is that this could do more harm than good at this time".

Media playback is unsupported on your device

The UK government's health advisers are working on the assumption that Britain will not see infection rates peak for up to three months.

Ministers said it was important to get the timing right for stricter measures because people would tire of them after a few weeks.

As the epidemic reaches its peak, it is likely elderly people and those with health conditions will be told to cut social contact and stay at home.

Scotland is among the countries to have restricted mass gatherings, along with the Irish Republic, which has also closed schools and other public facilities. Schools in Northern Ireland will close at some stage, First Minister Arlene Foster said.

Elsewhere, France is one of the latest European countries to close all schools, universities and nurseries. In the US, all major sport has been suspended and Broadway performances are off for a month.

Outbreaks in Spain led the Foreign Office to update its travel advice for certain regions and municipalities but flights will continue as normal.

In other developments:

• School leaders called for clear guidance ahead of any widespread school closures
• Cabinet Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan tested negative for coronavirus after coming into contact with Nadine Dorries, the first MP to contract the virus
• Saint Patrick's Day celebrations were cancelled in London
• Some care home firms announced restrictions on visitors, with one banning children from seeing residents
• UK and EU negotiators agreed not to hold face-to-face talks next week on Brexit
• The Electoral Commission recommended that local polls due in May should be postponed until the autumn
• Chelsea FC's full squad went into self-isolation after winger Callum Hudson-Odoi got a positive diagnosis

The number of UK cases rose by more than 100 on Thursday - with 491 in England, 60 in Scotland, 20 in Northern Ireland and 25 in Wales.

Public Health England has released new guidance for those staying at home because they have symptoms of the virus - a cough or a temperature of 37.8C (100F) or more.

Its advice states:

• Not to go to work, school, or public areas, use public transport or taxis - or even for a walk
• Those with even mild symptoms of infection should stay at least two metres away from other people in their homes, and should sleep alone
• Those with confirmed or suspected cases should use a separate bathroom if they can, or thoroughly clean facilities after using them if they live with other people

---

How have you been affected by coronavirus? Get in touch by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk.

Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways:

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2020-03-13 09:22:51Z
52780663037337

Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK could avoid Italy's fate - BBC News

Much of Italy is currently in lockdown as the country's tally of coronavirus deaths has topped 1,000.

The outbreak is putting the Italian healthcare service under immense strain. But will the UK follow this path?

On Thursday, Boris Johnson's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said the UK was four weeks behind Italy "in terms of the scale of the outbreak" if not "in terms of the response".

Does that mean we're four weeks away from a similar fate?

Not necessarily. Here are three reasons why experts believe the UK won't follow Italy's grim lead, and why the number of cases here means something different.

1. Different early transmission

The number of confirmed cases is not the same as the number of actual cases. It depends on how many infected people are detected.

The epidemics in both countries may be growing at a similar rate now, but early on the UK had more diagnosed cases than Italy. Italian numbers shot up on 23 February, leading scientists to think there was a period when the virus was spreading without being detected.

That gave less room for measures like tracing contacts of those who had fallen ill and isolating cases to slow the spread.

Professor of international public health Jimmy Whitworth says that put the health system "behind the curve" in controlling the epidemic.

Researchers also warn that the Italy virus testing system has become overwhelmed and is not keeping up with new cases. This means Italy's figures could be falling further behind the total number of actual cases.

And as the UK adds more testing capacity, Prof Whitworth adds, we might see a "jump in numbers" - not just a result of greater transmission, but better detection.

2. Italy's epidemic is more concentrated

The pressure on health services also depends on where, and how severe, each case is.

There are good reasons to believe that these factors are different for the two countries. Since the initial spread, most of Italy's epidemic has been concentrated in the northern region of Lombardy, home to just over 15% of Italians.

Lombardy has accounted for almost 60 in every 100 cases in Italy. By contrast, the epidemic, so far, is more spread out in the UK. Like Lombardy, London has about 15% of citizens. But it has a smaller proportion of cases: just under 25 in 100.

So 15,000 cases spread out across the UK might not put the same pressure on hospitals as they would if they were mainly in one city or region.

The UK government is still planning for a time when the NHS will face significant challenges. But that may not be when we catch up with Italy's current number of confirmed cases.

3. More of Italy's confirmed cases are fatal

The death rate among confirmed cases in Italy is higher than in the UK. As of 12 March, the mortality rates among detected cases were 1.4% for the UK and 6.7% for Italy.

Prof Whitworth believes a higher death rate in Italy could mean that that the observed cases contain a larger number of sicker patients. Italy has an older population than the UK, and the effects of Covid-19 infection have been more serious in older people.

That puts more pressure on services.

The alternative explanation for the higher death rate is that Italy's is an overwhelmed health service.

• How deadly is the coronavirus?

Don't relax quite yet

Even though our epidemic may not follow Italy's exactly, that doesn't mean the UK will escape serious changes to its way of life.

Epidemiologist Adam Kucharski warns against simple comparisons of case numbers and that "without efforts to control the virus we could still see a situation evolve like that in Italy", even if not necessarily in the next four weeks.

Additional reporting by Ed Lowther and Lucy Rodgers

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2020-03-13 01:14:59Z
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Coronavirus: UK deaths related to virus rise to 10 - BBC News

Two more people have died after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 10.

There are now 596 confirmed cases in the UK, up from 456 on Wednesday - with 491 in England, 60 in Scotland, 20 in Northern Ireland and 25 in Wales.

It comes as the government is expected to announce within hours that it is stepping up its coronavirus response.

It is anticipated the UK will switch to tactics aimed at delaying its spread, rather than containing it.

The latest two deaths were an 89-year-old at Charing Cross Hospital in London and a woman in her 60s at Queen's Hospital in Romford, NHS England said. They both had underlying health conditions.

As of 09:00 GMT, a total of 29,764 people had been tested for the virus in the UK.

The rise in confirmed cases - of 140 - is the first time the day-on-day increase has been more than 100.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has labelled the outbreak of the disease as a pandemic.

Schools, colleges and other public facilities in the Republic of Ireland are to close until 29 March.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson was expected to sign off plans to move from the "containment" phase of the outbreak to "delay" at the Cobra meeting on Thursday.

Speaking as the meeting continued, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the UK has moved into the delay phase.

She added that the Scottish government has decided that from Monday gatherings of more than 500 people will be cancelled - to reduce pressure on frontline services.

Overnight, US President Donald Trump suspended travel to the US from 26 European countries - but not the UK or Ireland.

In other developments:

• Three Leicester City players have self-isolated after showing symptoms of coronavirus
• Durham University has cancelled classroom based lessons from Monday and the London School of Economics has also said that "all teaching activity" and exams will be done online
• Scottish Secretary Alister Jack suggested new UK measures could include requiring people to stay at home if they have a raised temperature combined with symptoms of a cold
• Barchester, which runs more than 200 care homes across the UK, has asked visitors to stay away
• A cabinet minister was confirmed as being in self-isolation while awaiting test results after coming into contact with minister Nadine Dorries, who has tested positive for the virus
• The Italian government forced all shops except food stores and pharmacies to close as the country strengthens its lockdown due to the virus
• Real Madrid footballers have gone into quarantine after a basketball player who shares training facilities with the La Liga club tested positive for the virus
• McLaren have withdrawn from this weekend's Australian Grand Prix after a team member tested positive
• Princess Cruises, which has seen more than 700 cases of the disease reported on its cruise ships, has paused operations until 10 May

The UK is currently in the "containment" phase - the first stage of the government's four-part plan:

• Containment
• Delay
• Mitigation
• Research - which runs alongside the other phases

Delay is where "social distancing" measures will be considered - which could include restrictions on public gatherings above a certain number of people, although this is not thought likely at this stage.

The move could also result in people who show even minor signs of respiratory tract infections - such as a cough - or a fever soon being told to self-isolate.

Speaking to BBC News, deputy chief medical officer for England Dr Jenny Harries said the introduction of social distancing measures should come at "exactly the right time".

She also warned that members of the public wearing face masks could be putting themselves at more risk of contracting the virus - if they touch it with unwashed hands or put it on a surface they have not cleaned.

"You can actually trap the virus in the mask and start breathing it in," she said.

Where are we heading?

The move to delay is an acknowledgement the virus cannot be contained. This is not unexpected given health officials have been clear in the past week or so that we should expect widespread community transmission.

The key now is how quickly, and by how much, cases start to rise.

A good scenario given the circumstances would be for infections to climb gradually over the coming months and for the peak weeks - where the risk is that half the overall cases could come quickly - to be kept under control.

That will allow the health service to manage as best it can.

The government has a range of powers at its disposal.

But expect the most drastic to be reserved for just before the peak. The focus of today's advice is expected to be how the vulnerable can be protected - the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak told BBC Breakfast any new measures would seek to protect people who are especially vulnerable and would be "guided by the science".

"We now believe the virus could spread significantly," he said.

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Mr Sunak told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that blanket bans on foreign travel like that imposed by the US are unlikely to have a "material effect" on the spread of infection.

He said the UK government was "looking at interventions that provide very high clinical benefit and minimise the social impact".

The delay phase aims to lower the peak impact of the virus and push it away from the winter season - when pressures on the NHS are more acute because of issues including seasonal flu.

Delaying the outbreak's impact could also buy time for the testing of drugs and development of vaccines and/or improved therapies or tests to help reduce the impact of the disease.

The Cobra committee last met on Monday, when it was decided the UK should remain in the containment phase.

On Wednesday, in his first Budget, Mr Sunak pledged billions of pounds of investment to get the country through the coronavirus outbreak, as well as saying the NHS would get "whatever resources it needs".

Meanwhile the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru have cancelled their respective spring conferences.

In response to the World Health Organization labelling the outbreak of the disease a pandemic, the UK's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty tweeted that the UK "had been planning" for this situation.

NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson told BBC Newsnight that alternative areas like operating theatres and recovery rooms could be adapted to help cope with increased hospital admissions.

He said: "The idea that we've got a fixed number of beds and capacity is not right."

'It's a horrible feeling'

Alison Cameron, 53, is one of 15 people in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea to have been diagnosed with the disease.

She contacted NHS 111 after she began finding it difficult to breathe.

"I feel really unwell. I am currently in isolation. It is not pleasant," she said, adding: "At the heart of it I feel like death on legs."

She believes she contracted the virus after a chance meeting with someone who was subsequently diagnosed with it.

"It's a horrible feeling not being able to go out and it is quite frightening," she said. "I am more worried about my neighbours because they are quite vulnerable too."

Read more here.

What is happening elsewhere?

US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new travel restrictions on Europe in a bid to combat the spread of the virus.

The ban applies to anyone who has been in the EU's Schengen border-free area within 14 days prior to their arrival in the US. The travel order does not apply to US citizens.

The UK Foreign Office issued a travel update for British nationals in Italy, urging all remaining tourists to contact their airline operators and return to the UK.

It came as the number of confirmed cases in Italy rose to more than 12,000 with a death toll of 827.

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2020-03-12 15:07:53Z
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