Sabtu, 09 November 2019

UK's credit rating could be downgraded, says Moody's - BBC News

The UK's credit rating could be downgraded, according to ratings agency Moody's, which says Brexit has caused "paralysis in policy-making".

It has changed the outlook on the UK's current rating - which is a marker of how likely it is to pay back its debts - from "stable" to "negative".

Moody's also criticised the general election promises to raise spending with "no clear plan" to finance it.

The UK is currently rated Aa2 - the third highest grade.

Credit ratings agencies grade countries and institutions by their credit-worthiness. That in turn can affect the amount that it costs countries to borrow money.

Moody's stripped Britain of its top-notch AAA rating in 2013, before downgrading it again in 2017.

'High risk'

All the major political parties have committed to ramping up borrowing as part of their general election campaigning.

They have said this is to take advantage of low interest rates. Moody's change in outlook suggests this could alter in the future.

Jane Sydenham, from Rathbone Investment Management, said: "The vast spending plans announced this week make the UK look a higher risk prospect from an international debt investors point of view."

Moody's said its concern was that the UK's debt level could rise as a result. "In the current political climate, Moody's sees no meaningful pressure for debt-reducing fiscal policies," it said.

Jane Foley, from Rabobank, said to borrow more - without increasing debt levels - you need to see economic growth which is "a big ask when global growth is slowing and when UK investment has been chased away by political uncertainty".

Analysis: Should we care?

By BBC business reporter Katie Prescott

Following the financial crisis the credit ratings agencies were discredited for giving gold-plated ratings to companies that later collapsed.

The last time that the UK's rating was downgraded, in 2017, there was little impact on borrowing costs. We are still in the "A" band of countries, even if no longer on a par with Germany.

So for some in the City, these reports can be easily dismissed. "It just tells us stuff we already know," one investor told me.

But the language and timing of this (long-scheduled) report are sobering, coming as it has when politicians are looking to splash out, making big promises about the future of the UK's public services.

It ends by saying a downgrade would happen if policy-makers don't have a credible strategy to cut debt. And cutting debt doesn't seem to be on anyone's manifesto.

The Moody's report said "deep divisions within society and the political landscape" underpin its decision because they are reducing the UK's ability to make policy decisions.

It said even if a deal was struck with the European Union over Brexit, that uncertainty over the future of trade is unlikely to diminish.

However, the agency said it has decided to hold the UK's current rating because it still saw positives in the economy such as a broad range of economic activity, a sound monetary policy framework and a highly flexible labour market.

The Conservative Party said: "This election is about ending paralysis in Parliament and delivering certainty on Brexit, and our commitment to produce a robust, costed manifesto."

The Labour Party said the biggest dangers to the UK economy were the Conservative Party's "Brexit deal and stubborn refusal to prepare for the climate emergency".

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50361025

2019-11-09 17:04:56Z
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General election 2019: Gloves off as UK parties launch campaigns - BBC News

And they're off. At 00:01 on Wednesday, the UK Parliament was dissolved. Hours later, the Conservative leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the short visit to Buckingham Palace to inform Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the election was now on.

As the conversations between the monarch and prime minister are private, we don't know whether Her Majesty might have been somewhat fed up, given that it was just weeks ago that she opened a new parliamentary session with all its usual pageantry. On that occasion the Queen had supposedly set out the plans of Mr Johnson's, in retrospect, decidedly short-lived government.

If you are wondering why an election is even being held after the Queen went to all that trouble of opening parliament, and another election would otherwise have been due in the summer of 2022, here's why.

The official reason given by Mr Johnson is a fear that the last parliament simply would never have passed the Brexit deal he had agreed with the European Union.

It's also clear, though, that Mr Johnson thought it unlikely the Conservative party would ever be lucky enough again to be up against an opponent as unpopular as the current leader of the main opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn. Recent polls suggest the Labour leader has the lowest satisfaction rating for an opposition leader since the 1970s.

Why did the opposition parties agree to an election?

In truth, the Labour party had little choice, once smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) decided to try their luck - possibly believing that their stance as out-and-out anti-Brexit parties was likely to play well with a large chunk of voters.

Now the battle is commenced, it's not hard to see the shape of the battlefield.

Just consider the campaign slogans from the main parties, which are hardly subtle - are campaign slogans ever?

  • Conservatives: Get Brexit Done. Unleash Britain's Potential
  • Labour: It's Time For Real Change
  • Liberal Democrats: Stop Brexit. Build A Brighter Future

But it hasn't exactly been the smoothest of starts for any of the main parties as General Election 2019 (#GE2019) gets under way.

What's gone wrong so far?

Even before Mr Johnson's first rally in front of the party faithful on Wednesday, he had lost a government minister - the first minister to be forced to resign during a campaign in over 40 years.

Meanwhile, another minister - the famously posh-sounding and wealthy Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg - had to apologise after suggesting that many of the mainly poor victims of the Grenfell Tower fire had lacked common sense when following the fire service's advice to stay in their apartments.

And, as if all that wasn't bad enough, Conservative Party headquarters created fake news by editing an interview with a Labour politician in a misleading way before posting it on social media.

Perhaps less reported on, but most seriously of all, the week brought further retirements and resignations of "moderate" Conservative MPs unhappy at what they saw as the party's undoubted shift to the right and emergence as an out-and-out pro-Brexit party.

Labour's campaign start was similarly disastrous, with the deputy leader stepping down and two former party figures accusing Mr Corbyn of being unfit to lead the country, citing what they said was his total failure to tackle the party's anti-Semitism problem and his far left anti-Western world view.

Economists have also been fairly scathing about the promise of a vast increase in public spending at the heart of the Labour offer of a genuinely "real change" socialist alternative following nine years of Tory austerity.

What have we learned so far?

The early stage of campaigning has effectively highlighted how both the main parties have moved off to the ideological right and left and away from being the largely centrist broad coalitions they had been for so many years.

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How much any of this registers with the voters is hard to say. The parties no doubt hope that voters just pick up on, or "cut through" as it's known, their core message, whether that's Brexit or something else.

But if the campaigns so far have failed to really take off, there's one thing perhaps all the politicians can agree on, namely that this is surely one of the most important elections in this country since 1945.

At stake is not just Britain's future relationship with the EU, but its very standing in the world, the nature of its economic model and the very unity of the United Kingdom, given possible developments in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The stakes don't come higher than this.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50329602

2019-11-09 12:28:34Z
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Jumat, 08 November 2019

U.K. Police Release Names of 39 People Found Dead in a Truck - The New York Times

LONDON — The police on Friday released the names, ages and home provinces of the 39 Vietnamese people who were found dead in a refrigerated trailer in southeastern England last month, after dozens of families in north-central Vietnam had waited weeks for confirmation that their missing relatives were among the victims.

There were 10 teenagers among the people found in the refrigerated trailer on Oct. 23 in an industrial park in Grays, Essex, the police said in a statement. The victims ranged in age from 15 to 44.

Among the victims was Pham Thi Tra My, 26, from a village in Ha Tinh, Vietnam, who had texted her mother hours before the bodies were discovered, “I’m sorry, Mom, my path abroad didn’t succeed.”

Ms. Pham added: “Mom, I love you and Dad so much! I’m dying because I can’t breathe.”

She had tried to reach Britain, convinced that she could find a job as a manicurist and help her family, who had accumulated $19,000 in debt.

Two others were identified as Nguyen Huy Hung and Nguyen Huy Hung, both 15. Another victim, Tran Ngoc Hieu, was 17.

The grisly discovery of the bodies in October shed a grim light on human trafficking and smugglers who prey on desperate people trying to reach Europe for a better future. The journey has been undertaken by an estimated 18,000 Vietnamese people a year.

The police said in the statement that the Vietnamese and British governments were working together to repatriate the victims’ bodies.

“Our priority has been to identify the victims, to preserve the dignity of those who have died and to support the victims’ friends and families,” said Assistant Chief Constable Tim Smith of Essex Police, the senior officer overseeing the investigation.

Mr. Smith said in the statement that the families had been “given some time to absorb this tragic news before we publicly confirmed their loved one’s identity.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/world/europe/essex-lorry-victims-names.html

2019-11-08 14:23:00Z
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UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news - The Guardian

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  1. UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news  The Guardian
  2. Torrential rain in England strands shoppers, ...  Taiwan News
  3. UK flooding: Dozens spend night in Sheffield Meadowhall shopping centre  BBC News
  4. Torrential rain brings heavy floods to parts of northern England  Guardian News
  5. UK weather: Flooding sparks home evacuations following MUDSLIDE and Christmas shoppers trapped after river  The Sun
  6. View full coverage on Google News

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2019/nov/08/uk-flooding-yorkshire-midlands-wettest-day-flood-warnings

2019-11-08 12:29:00Z
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UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news - The Guardian

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  1. UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news  The Guardian
  2. Torrential rain in England strands shoppers, ...  Taiwan News
  3. North England hit by torrential rain and flooding  CNN
  4. Torrential rain brings heavy floods to parts of northern England  Guardian News
  5. South Yorkshire flooding: Homes evacuated as rain causes travel chaos  BBC News
  6. View full coverage on Google News

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2019/nov/08/uk-flooding-yorkshire-midlands-wettest-day-flood-warnings

2019-11-08 11:18:00Z
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UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news - The Guardian

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  1. UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre after heavy rain hits Yorkshire and Midlands – live news  The Guardian
  2. UK flooding: Dozens spend night in Sheffield Meadowhall shopping centre  BBC News
  3. Torrential rain in England strands shoppers, ...  Taiwan News
  4. Torrential rain brings heavy floods to parts of northern England  Guardian News
  5. North England hit by torrential rain and flooding  CNN
  6. View full coverage on Google News

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2019/nov/08/uk-flooding-yorkshire-midlands-wettest-day-flood-warnings

2019-11-08 10:55:00Z
52780429605652

UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre as more rain forecast for Yorkshire and Midlands – live news - The Guardian

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  1. UK flooding: people stranded overnight in Sheffield shopping centre as more rain forecast for Yorkshire and Midlands – live news  The Guardian
  2. UK flooding: Dozens spend night in Sheffield Meadowhall shopping centre  BBC News
  3. Torrential rain in England strands shoppers, ...  Taiwan News
  4. Torrential rain brings heavy floods to parts of northern England  Guardian News
  5. South Yorkshire flooding: Homes evacuated as rain causes travel chaos  BBC News
  6. View full coverage on Google News

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2019/nov/08/uk-flooding-yorkshire-midlands-wettest-day-flood-warnings

2019-11-08 10:06:00Z
52780429605652