The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now. - The New York Times

The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now.

By Amie Tsang

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for a smooth transition.

$1.45

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

1.40

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

1.35

1.30

1.25

$1.25

The British pound in dollars

1.20

Jul ’16

Oct ’16

Jan ’17

Apr ’17

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

Jan ’18

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

Oct ’18

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

Jul ’19

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for a smooth transiton.

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

$1.45

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

1.40

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

1.35

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

1.30

1.25

$1.25

The British pound in dollars

1.20

Jul ’16

Jan ’17

Jul ’17

Jan ’18

Jul ’18

Jan ’19

Jul ’19

1.25

1.40

$1.20

1.30

1.35

1.45

Jul ’16

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

Oct ’16

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

Jan ’17

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

Apr ’17

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for smooth transition.

Jan ’18

The British pound

in dollars

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

Oct ’18

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Jul ’19

$1.25

1.25

1.40

$1.20

1.30

1.35

1.45

Jul ’16

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

Oct ’16

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

Jan ’17

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

Apr ’17

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for smooth transition.

Jan ’18

The British pound

in dollars

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

Oct ’18

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Jul ’19

$1.25

Note: Data through July 19.

Source: Refinitiv

By The New York Times

Britain’s currency sank to a two-year low last week, dipping below $1.24 as fears of a no-deal Brexit grew. Long seen as a symbol of Britain’s stability and national pride, the pound has in recent years become a barometer for concerns about the country and its departure from the European Union.

A cheaper pound could invite more foreign investment and tourism, but it could also hurt the country’s ability to buy goods from other places, especially at a time when it will need to negotiate trade treaties.

The currency’s fluctuations look set to continue. On Tuesday, the successor to the current prime minister, Theresa May, will be announced. If Boris Johnson, a hard-line Brexit supporter, is chosen, that raises new questions about how smooth the country’s exit will be.

Why is the pound so low now?

Since May, when the beleaguered prime minister announced that she would be stepping down, the prospect of Britain crashing out of the European Union — leaving without an agreement on the terms of divorce — has started to look more likely.

That has been hurting the pound: Many in Britain fear that a so-called no-deal Brexit would create chaos, and Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility said last week that it would cause a 30 billion pound hit to public finances.

On Thursday, British lawmakers passed a measure intended to prevent the next prime minister from suspending Parliament and forcing through a no-deal Brexit. (Mr. Johnson had hinted he might take such a step.) Still, the uncertainty over the next few months is likely to drive down the pound.

The pound is about 15 percent lower than it was just before the vote to leave. But it is still above the lows it hit in January 2017, when Ms. May suggested that Britain might leave the E.U. without firm agreements. The prospect of losing tariff-free access to Europe’s single markets and the continued uncertainty about the terms of Britain’s departure caused the currency to plunge.

Analysts say the pound could go as low as $1.10. Last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley even raised the possibility that if Britain crashed out of the European Union, the pound could reach parity with the dollar.

Why is sterling a Brexit barometer?

Though the pound is viewed as a symbol of the country’s independence, it has at times been beholden to international events.

Plunges in the value of sterling have cast long shadows. The financial crisis in 2008 prompted it to plummet. The day that Britain had to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 is known as Black Wednesday. In 1976, Britain had to ask the International Monetary Fund for a loan after the pound dropped below $2.

At the same time, many of the companies on Britain’s benchmark equities index, the FTSE 100, make a lot of their money overseas. So their stocks rise when the pound gets weaker, as the money they make is worth more in pounds.

With all the uncertainty about Brexit, Britain itself feels less steady. And the pound reflects that, complicating the jobs of currency analysts. “In the past, people would assume the U.K. government was relatively stable,” said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG, the Japanese bank. But events like Brexit and the election of President Trump created much more global uncertainty.

“Brexit risk is the dominant driver,” he said.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/business/britain-pound-brexit.html

2019-07-22 12:44:00Z
52780336690075

Boris Johnson Is How Britain Ends - The New York Times

LONDON — Boris Johnson, to whom lying comes as easily as breathing, is on the verge of becoming prime minister. He faces the most complex and intractable political crisis to affect Britain since 1945.

That should be concerning enough. But given Britain’s political system — which relies for its maintenance on the character and disposition of the prime minister — it carries even graver import. Mr. Johnson, whose laziness is proverbial and opportunism legendary, is a man well-practiced in deceit, a pander willing to tickle the prejudices of his audience for easy gain. His personal life is incontinent, his public record inconsequential.

And his premiership could bring about the end of Britain itself.

The state of the United Kingdom, a constitutional compact founded in 1922 and stretching back, in one form or another, for centuries, is severely strained. Though Brexit is primarily driven by English passions, two of the four territories in the Union — Northern Ireland and Scotland — voted to remain. Both present immediate problems for Mr. Johnson — and for the future of Britain.

In Scotland, rancor at the sense that the country’s vote counted for little and subsequent repeated bouts of parliamentary chaos have led to renewed calls for a second independence ballot. Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, insists Scotland will hold one if Brexit takes place. One of the most adroit politicians in Britain, Ms. Sturgeon knows that despite widespread misgivings about Brexit, the majority needed for independence does not currently exist. But recent polling suggests a Johnson government might tilt the scales in her favor. An independent Scotland may be conjured out of the chicanery of Mr. Johnson’s rule.

In Northern Ireland, Mr. Johnson is beholden to the Democratic Unionist Party, a hard-line Northern Irish Protestant party on which he will depend for a majority in Parliament. That severely curtails his room for maneuver as he attempts, one way or the other, to take Britain out of the European Union. The D.U.P. will not countenance separation from the rest of the United Kingdom — hence why the so-called backstop, effectively an insurance plan to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbor, fatally scuttled Theresa May’s thrice-rejected deal. It is hard to see how Mr. Johnson can extricate himself from this problem, whose protraction may have a decisive effect on the country’s internal politics. Calls for a United Ireland, encouraged by demographic change and the waning of unionist sentiment, appear to be gathering more support.

The traditional solution to such an impasse is to call fresh elections. But here too there are problems for Mr. Johnson. Current polls show a fluctuating four-way split with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which peeled off much of the Conservative vote in the recent European elections, the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party. Tory activists believe only Mr. Johnson can woo back the faithful from Mr. Farage, but if he steers the party farther right it would be likely to lose more liberal-leaning seats. Though the temptation of a resounding victory may pull on Mr. Johnson’s vanity, the risk of a disastrous rout from a split base, handing Downing Street to Jeremy Corbyn and shattering the Tories, will surely be too great. And any successor to Mrs. May will fear the unpredictability of a snap election.

No way out there then. And the overall political situation has only worsened since Mrs. May’s resignation. The European Union — newly configured after parliamentary elections, with an incoming head of the commission who has emphatically ruled out reopening negotiations with Britain — is likely to be short on patience and good will. (It doesn’t help, of course, that its officials regard Mr. Johnson as a dangerous buffoon.)

At home, the rise of the Brexit Party constrains his options further. In part to nullify its threat, he has promised that unless a deal is reached by the end of October, the deadline for Britain’s departure from the bloc, he will leave without one. And as Parliament, which remains intractably divided, is very unlikely to ratify anything Mr. Johnson presents, a No Deal exit looks far from impossible. The consequences of such a development cannot be foreseen — but they will surely not redound to the benefit of Britain.

More on Boris and Britain

Opinion | William Davies

Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and the Rise of Radical Incompetence

July 13, 2018

Opinion | Richard Seymour

The Last Gasp of Northern Ireland

Nov. 2, 2018

Opinion | Tanya Gold

Boris Johnson? How Did We Come to This?

June 21, 2019

So, the political situation is inclement, the room for maneuver limited, the stakes high. For another politician, assuming power in such circumstances would be daunting — but not necessarily dangerous. In a system that grants significant autonomy to prime ministers and relies on their propriety, character matters. The same scenario can play out differently in different hands. That’s why, in the end, analysis comes back to Mr. Johnson and his terrible personality.

He prizes victory above government — his first ambition as a child was to be “world king” — and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, as both London mayor and foreign secretary. His contempt of scrutiny is plain to see: He was irked and petulant when challenged over budget cuts, the waste of public money on vanity projects or diplomatic gaffes. His easy talk of parliamentary prorogation — effectively suspending the legislature — may be a taste of the chaos to come.

He seems not to have principles. In the late ’90s he told a surprised colleague he was “worried I haven’t got any political opinions” — before going on to rehearse a hit parade of right-wing classics about “picanninies” and “bum boys” in his Telegraph column. While the insight into the void at the heart of Mr. Johnson’s blond ambition is striking, there are some constants to his politics other than his spectacular mendacity: his defense of bankers and pursuit of tax cuts, and a loathing for those who call him to account over facts.

Reality will prove unavoidable on Oct. 31, however Mr. Johnson bluffs. Predictions about Brexit generally assume too much stability in the status quo; Mr. Johnson’s slipperiness makes it harder still to predict. Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing.

In Mr. Johnson’s queasy novel, thankfully his only one to date, a thinly disguised Boris-like politician muses that “the whole world just seemed to be a complicated joke.”

Britain may be about to discover how it feels to be the punch line.

James Butler (@piercepenniless) is a co-founder of Novara Media whose writing has appeared in The Guardian, The London Review of Books and Vice.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/opinion/boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain.html

2019-07-22 11:53:37Z
52780336314805

Boris Johnson Is How Britain Ends - The New York Times

LONDON — Boris Johnson, to whom lying comes as easily as breathing, is on the verge of becoming prime minister. He faces the most complex and intractable political crisis to affect Britain since 1945.

That should be concerning enough. But given Britain’s political system — which relies for its maintenance on the character and disposition of the prime minister — it carries even graver import. Mr. Johnson, whose laziness is proverbial and opportunism legendary, is a man well-practiced in deceit, a pander willing to tickle the prejudices of his audience for easy gain. His personal life is incontinent, his public record inconsequential.

And his premiership could bring about the end of Britain itself.

The state of the United Kingdom, a constitutional compact founded in 1922 and stretching back, in one form or another, for centuries, is severely strained. Though Brexit is primarily driven by English passions, two of the four territories in the Union — Northern Ireland and Scotland — voted to remain. Both present immediate problems for Mr. Johnson — and for the future of Britain.

In Scotland, rancor at the sense that the country’s vote counted for little and subsequent repeated bouts of parliamentary chaos have led to renewed calls for a second independence ballot. Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, insists Scotland will hold one if Brexit takes place. One of the most adroit politicians in Britain, Ms. Sturgeon knows that despite widespread misgivings about Brexit, the majority needed for independence does not currently exist. But recent polling suggests a Johnson government might tilt the scales in her favor. An independent Scotland may be conjured out of the chicanery of Mr. Johnson’s rule.

In Northern Ireland, Mr. Johnson is beholden to the Democratic Unionist Party, a hard-line Northern Irish Protestant party on which he will depend for a majority in Parliament. That severely curtails his room for maneuver as he attempts, one way or the other, to take Britain out of the European Union. The D.U.P. will not countenance separation from the rest of the United Kingdom — hence why the so-called backstop, effectively an insurance plan to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbor, fatally scuttled Theresa May’s thrice-rejected deal. It is hard to see how Mr. Johnson can extricate himself from this problem, whose protraction may have a decisive effect on the country’s internal politics. Calls for a United Ireland, encouraged by demographic change and the waning of unionist sentiment, appear to be gathering more support.

The traditional solution to such an impasse is to call fresh elections. But here too there are problems for Mr. Johnson. Current polls show a fluctuating four-way split with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which peeled off much of the Conservative vote in the recent European elections, the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party. Tory activists believe only Mr. Johnson can woo back the faithful from Mr. Farage, but if he steers the party farther right it would be likely to lose more liberal-leaning seats. Though the temptation of a resounding victory may pull on Mr. Johnson’s vanity, the risk of a disastrous rout from a split base, handing Downing Street to Jeremy Corbyn and shattering the Tories, will surely be too great. And any successor to Mrs. May will fear the unpredictability of a snap election.

No way out there then. And the overall political situation has only worsened since Mrs. May’s resignation. The European Union — newly configured after parliamentary elections, with an incoming head of the commission who has emphatically ruled out reopening negotiations with Britain — is likely to be short on patience and good will. (It doesn’t help, of course, that its officials regard Mr. Johnson as a dangerous buffoon.)

At home, the rise of the Brexit Party constrains his options further. In part to nullify its threat, he has promised that unless a deal is reached by the end of October, the deadline for Britain’s departure from the bloc, he will leave without one. And as Parliament, which remains intractably divided, is very unlikely to ratify anything Mr. Johnson presents, a No Deal exit looks far from impossible. The consequences of such a development cannot be foreseen — but they will surely not redound to the benefit of Britain.

More on Boris and Britain

Opinion | William Davies

Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and the Rise of Radical Incompetence

July 13, 2018

Opinion | Richard Seymour

The Last Gasp of Northern Ireland

Nov. 2, 2018

Opinion | Tanya Gold

Boris Johnson? How Did We Come to This?

June 21, 2019

So, the political situation is inclement, the room for maneuver limited, the stakes high. For another politician, assuming power in such circumstances would be daunting — but not necessarily dangerous. In a system that grants significant autonomy to prime ministers and relies on their propriety, character matters. The same scenario can play out differently in different hands. That’s why, in the end, analysis comes back to Mr. Johnson and his terrible personality.

He prizes victory above government — his first ambition as a child was to be “world king” — and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, as both London mayor and foreign secretary. His contempt of scrutiny is plain to see: He was irked and petulant when challenged over budget cuts, the waste of public money on vanity projects or diplomatic gaffes. His easy talk of parliamentary prorogation — effectively suspending the legislature — may be a taste of the chaos to come.

He seems not to have principles. In the late ’90s he told a surprised colleague he was “worried I haven’t got any political opinions” — before going on to rehearse a hit parade of right-wing classics about “picanninies” and “bum boys” in his Telegraph column. While the insight into the void at the heart of Mr. Johnson’s blond ambition is striking, there are some constants to his politics other than his spectacular mendacity: his defense of bankers and pursuit of tax cuts, and a loathing for those who call him to account over facts.

Reality will prove unavoidable on Oct. 31, however Mr. Johnson bluffs. Predictions about Brexit generally assume too much stability in the status quo; Mr. Johnson’s slipperiness makes it harder still to predict. Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing.

In Mr. Johnson’s queasy novel, thankfully his only one to date, a thinly disguised Boris-like politician muses that “the whole world just seemed to be a complicated joke.”

Britain may be about to discover how it feels to be the punch line.

James Butler (@piercepenniless) is a co-founder of Novara Media whose writing has appeared in The Guardian, The London Review of Books and Vice.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/opinion/boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain.html

2019-07-22 11:20:27Z
52780336314805

The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now. - The New York Times

The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now.

By Amie Tsang

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for a smooth transition.

$1.45

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says that Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

1.40

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

1.35

1.30

1.25

$1.25

The British pound in dollars

1.20

Jul ’16

Oct ’16

Jan ’17

Apr ’17

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

Jan ’18

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

Oct ’18

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

Jul ’19

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for a smooth transiton.

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May says that Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

$1.45

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

1.40

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

1.35

1.30

1.25

$1.25

The British pound in dollars

1.20

Jul ’16

Jan ’17

Jul ’17

Jan ’18

Jul ’18

Jan ’19

Jul ’19

1.25

1.40

$1.20

1.30

1.35

1.45

Jul ’16

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

Oct ’16

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May saysthat Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

Jan ’17

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

Apr ’17

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for smooth transition.

Jan ’18

The British pound

in dollars

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

Oct ’18

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Jul ’19

$1.25

1.25

1.40

$1.20

1.30

1.35

1.45

Jul ’16

$1.48 Britain votes to leave the European Union by a narrow margin.

Oct ’16

$1.29 Prime Minister Theresa May saysthat Britain may cut important economic ties with the E.U.

Jan ’17

$1.24 Departure process officially begins, starting a two-year deadline.

Apr ’17

$1.29 Mrs. May’s party loses loses its majority in Parliament.

Jul ’17

Oct ’17

$1.40 E.U. and British negotiators agree on terms for smooth transition.

Jan ’18

The British pound

in dollars

Apr ’18

Jul ’18

$1.32 A series of resignations rattles Mrs. May’s cabinet.

Oct ’18

$1.26 Mrs. May postpones the first vote on Brexit deal.

Jan ’19

Apr ’19

$1.27 Mrs. May says she will step down, reviving fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Jul ’19

$1.25

Note: Data through July 19.

Source: Refinitiv

By The New York Times

Britain’s currency sank to a two-year low last week, dipping below $1.24 as fears of a no-deal Brexit grew. Long seen as a symbol of Britain’s stability and national pride, the pound has in recent years become a barometer for concerns about the country and its departure from the European Union.

A cheaper pound could invite more foreign investment and tourism, but it could also hurt the country’s ability to buy goods from other places, especially at a time when it will need to negotiate trade treaties.

The currency’s fluctuations look set to continue. On Tuesday, the successor to the current prime minister, Theresa May, will be announced. If Boris Johnson, a hard-line Brexit supporter, is chosen, that raises new questions about how smooth the country’s exit will be.

Why is the pound so low now?

Since May, when the beleaguered prime minister announced that she would be stepping down, the prospect of Britain crashing out of the European Union — leaving without an agreement on the terms of divorce — has started to look more likely.

That has been hurting the pound: Many in Britain fear that a so-called no-deal Brexit would create chaos, and Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility said last week that it would cause a 30 billion pound hit to public finances.

On Thursday, British lawmakers passed a measure intended to prevent the next prime minister from suspending Parliament and forcing through a no-deal Brexit. (Mr. Johnson had hinted he might take such a step.) Still, the uncertainty over the next few months is likely to drive down the pound.

The pound is about 15 percent lower than it was just before the vote to leave. But it is still above the lows it hit in January 2017, when Ms. May suggested that Britain might leave the E.U. without firm agreements. The prospect of losing tariff-free access to Europe’s single markets and the continued uncertainty about the terms of Britain’s departure caused the currency to plunge.

Analysts say the pound could go as low as $1.10. Last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley even raised the possibility that if Britain crashed out of the European Union, the pound could reach parity with the dollar.

Why is sterling a Brexit barometer?

Though the pound is viewed as a symbol of the country’s independence, it has at times been beholden to international events.

Plunges in the value of sterling have cast long shadows. The financial crisis in 2008 prompted it to plummet. The day that Britain had to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 is known as Black Wednesday. In 1976, Britain had to ask the International Monetary Fund for a loan after the pound dropped below $2.

At the same time, many of the companies on Britain’s benchmark equities index, the FTSE 100, make a lot of their money overseas. So their stocks rise when the pound gets weaker, as the money they make is worth more in pounds.

With all the uncertainty about Brexit, Britain itself feels less steady. And the pound reflects that, complicating the jobs of currency analysts. “In the past, people would assume the U.K. government was relatively stable,” said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG, the Japanese bank. But events like Brexit and the election of President Trump created much more global uncertainty.

“Brexit risk is the dominant driver,” he said.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/business/britain-pound-brexit.html

2019-07-22 10:58:05Z
CAIiENuMLjLpU7t6DFG2RSxe42AqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzwwt4QY

Boris Johnson Is How Britain Ends - The New York Times

LONDON — Boris Johnson, to whom lying comes as easily as breathing, is on the verge of becoming prime minister. He faces the most complex and intractable political crisis to affect Britain since 1945.

That should be concerning enough. But given Britain’s political system — which relies for its maintenance on the character and disposition of the prime minister — it carries even graver import. Mr. Johnson, whose laziness is proverbial and opportunism legendary, is a man well-practiced in deceit, a pander willing to tickle the prejudices of his audience for easy gain. His personal life is incontinent, his public record inconsequential.

And his premiership could bring about the end of Britain itself.

The state of the United Kingdom, a constitutional compact founded in 1922 and stretching back, in one form or another, for centuries, is severely strained. Though Brexit is primarily driven by English passions, two of the four territories in the Union — Northern Ireland and Scotland — voted to remain. Both present immediate problems for Mr. Johnson — and for the future of Britain.

In Scotland, rancor at the sense that the country’s vote counted for little and subsequent repeated bouts of parliamentary chaos have led to renewed calls for a second independence ballot. Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, insists Scotland will hold one if Brexit takes place. One of the most adroit politicians in Britain, Ms. Sturgeon knows that despite widespread misgivings about Brexit, the majority needed for independence does not currently exist. But recent polling suggests a Johnson government might tilt the scales in her favor. An independent Scotland may be conjured out of the chicanery of Mr. Johnson’s rule.

In Northern Ireland, Mr. Johnson is beholden to the Democratic Unionist Party, a hard-line Northern Irish Protestant party on which he will depend for a majority in Parliament. That severely curtails his room for maneuver as he attempts, one way or the other, to take Britain out of the European Union. The D.U.P. will not countenance separation from the rest of the United Kingdom — hence why the so-called backstop, effectively an insurance plan to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbor, fatally scuttled Theresa May’s thrice-rejected deal. It is hard to see how Mr. Johnson can extricate himself from this problem, whose protraction may have a decisive effect on the country’s internal politics. Calls for a United Ireland, encouraged by demographic change and the waning of unionist sentiment, appear to be gathering more support.

The traditional solution to such an impasse is to call fresh elections. But here too there are problems for Mr. Johnson. Current polls show a fluctuating four-way split with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which peeled off much of the Conservative vote in the recent European elections, the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party. Tory activists believe only Mr. Johnson can woo back the faithful from Mr. Farage, but if he steers the party farther right it would be likely to lose more liberal-leaning seats. Though the temptation of a resounding victory may pull on Mr. Johnson’s vanity, the risk of a disastrous rout from a split base, handing Downing Street to Jeremy Corbyn and shattering the Tories, will surely be too great. And any successor to Mrs. May will fear the unpredictability of a snap election.

No way out there then. And the overall political situation has only worsened since Mrs. May’s resignation. The European Union — newly configured after parliamentary elections, with an incoming head of the commission who has emphatically ruled out reopening negotiations with Britain — is likely to be short on patience and good will. (It doesn’t help, of course, that its officials regard Mr. Johnson as a dangerous buffoon.)

At home, the rise of the Brexit Party constrains his options further. In part to nullify its threat, he has promised that unless a deal is reached by the end of October, the deadline for Britain’s departure from the bloc, he will leave without one. And as Parliament, which remains intractably divided, is very unlikely to ratify anything Mr. Johnson presents, a No Deal exit looks far from impossible. The consequences of such a development cannot be foreseen — but they will surely not redound to the benefit of Britain.

More on Boris and Britain

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Boris Johnson? How Did We Come to This?

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So, the political situation is inclement, the room for maneuver limited, the stakes high. For another politician, assuming power in such circumstances would be daunting — but not necessarily dangerous. In a system that grants significant autonomy to prime ministers and relies on their propriety, character matters. The same scenario can play out differently in different hands. That’s why, in the end, analysis comes back to Mr. Johnson and his terrible personality.

He prizes victory above government — his first ambition as a child was to be “world king” — and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, as both London mayor and foreign secretary. His contempt of scrutiny is plain to see: He was irked and petulant when challenged over budget cuts, the waste of public money on vanity projects or diplomatic gaffes. His easy talk of parliamentary prorogation — effectively suspending the legislature — may be a taste of the chaos to come.

He seems not to have principles. In the late ’90s he told a surprised colleague he was “worried I haven’t got any political opinions” — before going on to rehearse a hit parade of right-wing classics about “picanninies” and “bum boys” in his Telegraph column. While the insight into the void at the heart of Mr. Johnson’s blond ambition is striking, there are some constants to his politics other than his spectacular mendacity: his defense of bankers and pursuit of tax cuts, and a loathing for those who call him to account over facts.

Reality will prove unavoidable on Oct. 31, however Mr. Johnson bluffs. Predictions about Brexit generally assume too much stability in the status quo; Mr. Johnson’s slipperiness makes it harder still to predict. Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing.

In Mr. Johnson’s queasy novel, thankfully his only one to date, a thinly disguised Boris-like politician muses that “the whole world just seemed to be a complicated joke.”

Britain may be about to discover how it feels to be the punch line.

James Butler (@piercepenniless) is a co-founder of Novara Media whose writing has appeared in The Guardian, The London Review of Books and Vice.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/opinion/boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain.html

2019-07-22 11:10:29Z
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