It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter.
It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter.
England has breached its "reasonable worst-case" scenario for COVID-19 infections and hospital admissions, the government's scientific advisers have said.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) also warned that the number of daily deaths in England is in line with that scenario, but "is almost certain to exceed this within the next two weeks".
Their warning came in the latest meeting of the group's Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) on 14 October, whose minutes were released on Friday.
They said the reasonable worst-case planning scenario is not a forecast of what is to happen but is used to help plan for COVID-19 during the winter.
If the number of new infections falls in the "very near future", this exceedance of the reasonable worst-case scenario "might only continue for three to four weeks", the group said.
"But, if R remains above 1 then the epidemic will further diverge from the planning scenario."
Since then, the R number - the average number of people one person with COVID-19 infects - has remained over 1.
And in Greater Manchester, most hospital trusts there could exceed their critical care capacity by next week due to high COVID-19 hospital admissions, according to an internal NHS document leaked to The Independent.
The prime minister last appeared at Downing Street coronavirus briefing more than a week ago on 22 October.
New infections doubling every 10-15 days
SPI-M-O warned new infections across the UK are doubling every 10 to 15 days.
"There is complete consensus in SPI-M-O that the current outlook for the epidemic's trajectory is concerning, if there are no widespread decisive interventions or behavioural changes in the near term," the group said.
In England, modelling suggests there is an average of 43,000 to 74,000 new infections per day - significantly above the reasonable worst-case scenario of between 12,000-13,000 throughout October.
A swabbing survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that an average of 336,500 people had COVID-19 in the community - not in hospitals or care homes - in the week up to 8 October, with 27,900 new infections each day.
In Wales, an average of 7,900 people had COVID-19 during that week - but the group said it is "highly likely" both countries have seen a daily increase since then.
South West has highest R number and daily growth rate
Looking at England's regions, the group found that despite the South West being touted as having one of the lowest rates, it had the highest R number and daily growth rate.
The estimates showed the region had an R number of 1.3-1.6 and a daily growth rate of between +6% and +10%, with the South East and East of England following close behind.
On the flip side, London had the lowest, with its R number at 1.1-1.4 and a daily growth rate of between +2% and +5%
Testing delays reduce contact tracing effectiveness
The group found that the volume of COVID-19 testing has varied "considerably" over time, depending on the region.
It said there was an indication that the distribution of delays in testing has changed "markedly" with increasing demand and having more tests but with further delays would only hinder test and trace efforts.
"Delays beyond 24 hours result in greatly reduced contact tracing effectiveness," the group said.
"Increasing the supply of tests will potentially reduce the effectiveness of contact tracing if this results in more delays, particularly the proportion returned within 24 hours."
The party suspended Mr Corbyn over his reaction to a report saying Labour had broken equality laws over its handling of anti-Semitism allegations.
The party suspended Mr Corbyn over his reaction to a report saying Labour had broken equality laws over its handling of anti-Semitism allegations.
More than 560,000 people had coronavirus in England last week with the number of infections rising steeply among secondary school children, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest.
The figures also appear to show around one in 100 people had COVID-19 in England for the week between 17 and 23 October, as the number of cases continues to rise across the UK.
New coronavirus cases increased by around 51,900 in England each day last week, according to ONS estimates.
This is up 47% from 35,200 new cases per day for the period from 10 to 16 October.
The ONS Infection Survey estimated 568,100 people had COVID-19 in England between 17 to 23 October, up from 433,300 the week before.
The numbers also show there has been an increase in cases in all age groups over the past two weeks, with older teenagers and young adults having the highest current rates.
Rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.
The figures, based on 609,777 swab tests taken whether people have symptoms or not, do not include anyone staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
The highest COVID-19 infection rates in England continue to be seen in the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber.
Rates also remain high for the North East but have now levelled off and there is now a larger gap with the other two northern regions.
The lowest rates are in the South East, South West and eastern England, while there has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks.
Katherine Kent, co-head of analysis for the COVID-19 infection survey, said: "Following the expansion of ONS infection survey, we are now seeing evidence of increases in COVID-19 infections across the UK.
"In England, infections have continued to rise steeply, with increases in all regions apart from in the North East, where infections appear to have now levelled off.
"Wales and Northern Ireland have also all seen increased infections, though it is currently too early to see a certain trend in Scotland, where we have been testing for a shorter period.
"When looking at infections across different age groups, rates now seem to be steeply increasing among secondary school children whilst older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest levels of infection."
Analysis: Figures offer 'glimmers of optimism' but we are heading in the wrong direction
By Rowland Manthorpe, technology correspondent
The ONS survey is perhaps the most reliable estimate we have of the state of the pandemic in the UK, and the picture it paints of rising infections across the UK is concerning.
There is some regional difference between the four nations of the UK, but in even the country where the virus is spreading slowest (Scotland), ONS estimates that 1 in 140 people have the virus.
A month ago, ONS estimated that 1 in 500 people in England had the virus. That shows startling progress.
Yet for seasoned watchers of these figures, there are some glimmers of optimism.
The ONS estimates that around 50,000 people a day are catching the virus, almost half as few as the REACT survey by Imperial College estimated yesterday.
Imperial College put the doubling rate - a crucial estimate of the speed of the growth of the outbreak - at nine days.
The ONS data would suggest that the numbers of infections are doubling every 14 days.
To put this in context: at the peak of the outbreak, the doubling rate was as high as three days.
That was what accounted for the frankly terrifying growth of March.
Based on this data, we are not back at that point again, but we are heading in the wrong direction.
The government is "striving" to avoid "blanket" coronavirus measures, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has said.
He told the BBC that ministers were "always ready" to introduce further restrictions, but said it was important to continue "targeting" the virus.
It comes amid calls to introduce a strict national lockdown in England.
Meanwhile, Nottinghamshire has become the latest region to join the top tier of Covid-19 restrictions, after an overall rise in infection rates.
West Yorkshire will also join the third tier from Monday, at which point nearly a fifth of England will be under the toughest restrictions.
Every area of England is now in one of three coronavirus alert categories - medium (tier one), high (tier two) or very high (tier three). Scotland has five levels of restrictions.
Under tier three rules in England, pubs and bars not serving substantial meals must shut, while household mixing is banned indoors and outdoors in private gardens, most outdoor venues and ticketed events. Further restrictions can be introduced for individual areas.
According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, about one in 10 people in homes in England had coronavirus in the week ending 23 October - equating to about 570,000 people. This is about one third higher than the figure for the previous week - 430,000.
The ONS also estimates there was about 52,000 new infections each day in homes in England in the same week, up about half on last week's number (35,000). The 52,000 figure is half the estimate of 100,000 a day from another study, the authors of which said the country is at a "critical stage" and "something has to change".
Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr Raab said ministers were "confident" they had "the right measures and framework in place, which is not to have a blanket approach but to target measures [...] on the areas where the uptick is highest".
He said this was the most effective way to tackle the virus "and avoid the blanket approach, which I don't think would be the best interest in the country, and which we are striving to avoid".
Mr Raab added that there had been "a decrease in the rate of growth" since the government had adopted that approach, although he admitted "clearly there is still an uptick in the virus".
However, the foreign secretary did not deny that ministers were considering bringing in an even higher fourth tier of restrictions.
He added: "We're always ready for further measures that we can take. But I think the most important thing about further measures is that we continue on the track we're on of targeting the virus."
On BBC Breakfast, Mr Raab insisted the public would find it "desperately unfair" for measures to be brought in across the country "while rates vary".
Asked whether a national lockdown was now inevitable, he said targeted measures were "the right thing to do", and appealed for "full compliance and full co-operation" in high-risk coronavirus regions to avoid more stringent measures.
He said that schools and businesses had been kept open in tier three areas but the government had left in "reserve the option of taking further measures".
Earlier, Labour's leader Sir Keir Starmer told the programme he was "deeply concerned" by rising infection rates, and said "that's why we called for a circuit-break [lockdown] over half term".
"The prime minister didn't choose that course and my concern is that the tier system is not strong enough to stop the infection rate going up," Sir Keir added.
A so-called "circuit-breaker" is a short limited lockdown - of about two to three weeks.
In Nottinghamshire - unlike some other tier three areas - betting shops, saunas, tattoo parlours and nail salons must close.
Alcohol cannot be sold after 21:00 GMT in shops, but can be sold until 22:00 if bought "in hospitality venues where accompanying a substantial meal".
On Thursday evening, young people took to the streets of Nottingham in fancy dress before the new restrictions came into force.
The Department of Health and Social Care has said leisure and sports facilities, such as gyms, will be allowed to stay open in West Yorkshire when it moves to tier three.
It also said more than a dozen more regions will move from the lowest to the middle tier of restrictions on Saturday.
These include East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston-Upon-Hull, North East Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire, Dudley, Staffordshire, Telford, the Wrekin, Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire, the whole of High Peak, Charnwood, Luton and Oxford.
On Thursday, it was announced that another 280 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 in the UK, while another 23,065 more lab-confirmed cases were reported.
Meanwhile, Scotland's new tiered system of restrictions will come into force at 06:00 on Monday, and Wales remains under a 17-day "firebreak" lockdown until 9 November.
Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford has said a new set of national rules will be brought in once the lockdown ends, rather than a "network of local restrictions".
Pubs and restaurants in Northern Ireland were closed for four weeks starting on 16 October with the exception of takeaways and deliveries. Schools were closed for two weeks.
In other coronavirus developments:
